About that 2012 Congressional map for Iowa

There seems to be some confusion about the potential map for Iowa’s Congressional districts that Nathaniel90 posted here yesterday, so I’d like to clarify a few points after the jump.

UPDATE: Nathaniel responds to Krusty in the comments.  

The Bean Walker linked to Nathaniel’s post yesterday using the tag line, “Bleeding Heartland/Daily Kos on Iowa Redistricting.” Todd Dorman characterized the map as an “expert speculation” from “Bleeding Heartland/Daily Kos.” I appreciate the links, but I want to clarify that Nathaniel’s original diary was one of 272 diaries posted yesterday at Daily Kos and not commissioned or approved by that site’s owner. I happened to see the piece and invited the author to cross-post here, because I thought his map and explanation would be of interest to Iowa readers.

Krusty Konservative takes the misunderstanding a step further, accusing this site of “gerrymandering.” Krusty has a few problems with Nathaniel’s map: it supposedly creates districts that are too unequal in population; it is “trying to make an already liberal 2nd District even more difficult for Republicans”; and it is not as compact or attractive as the map he created in January.

I haven’t delved into population estimates for Iowa’s counties and don’t know whether Nathaniel’s map would put too many people in the third district, as Krusty charges. Several of the central Iowa counties have seen significant population growth, and I don’t know where Nathaniel got the population numbers he used to draw his map. We won’t have firm numbers until after the 2010 census.

Nathaniel has been writing a series on redistricting across the country (past diaries are here). His intention is not to draw ridiculous gerrymandered maps. On the contrary, his proposed map for Ohio redistricting (published yesterday in the same piece containing his Iowa map) eliminates one Democratic and one Republican seat, rather than two Republicans. Nathaniel also writes,

it would be far better if all states used nonpartisan redistricting like Arizona, Iowa, Washington, and other locales already do. Nonpartisan redistricting at its best doesn’t ensure competitive elections, but it keeps the boundaries within the realm of logic, and doesn’t value incumbency for incumbency’s sake; rather, it stresses more practical concerns of political categorizing such as communities of interest and pure geography.

I think Krusty owes Nathaniel an apology.

And truly, if I were commissioning a diarist to create a gerrymandered map of Iowa for me, would it make sense to pack more Democrats into IA-02, which is already our best seat in terms of partisan ID? Dave Loebsack’s Republican opponent couldn’t even crack 40 percent in 2008. I’d be more interested in creating a favorable third district.

If anyone’s map looks gerrymandered, it’s Krusty’s. He puts Linn and Johnson counties in different districts, which splits a major metropolitan area. He appears to be trying to pack more Democrats into Bruce Braley’s first district while putting Loebsack “in trouble” (or so he thinks).

I don’t think Krusty’s map is more compact than Nathaniel’s either, but like my Republican father used to say, “Reasonable minds can differ.”

Please share your own thoughts about redistricting Iowa in this thread.

About the Author(s)

desmoinesdem

  • You doggone liberals are just too nice...

    I understand the need to clarify, but if you absolutely must speak to a conservative, please remember appropriate prophylaxis.

    And I’ve tried, I really have, honestly, to get my mind around this whole redistricting thing, but I don’t see how this can possibly jibe with my notion of an Iowa Autonomous Region.

    First, get the U.S. out of Iowa, then negotiate tarriffs and treaties. Speculating on redistricting only encourages them.

    I know, I know, most of your readers are liberal and dem, but not all progressives are liberal and/or dem.

  • Krusty . . .

    I think was APPROVINGLY called your map gerrymandering . . .

  • Frankly, I'm tickled by all the controversy

    Let me first say that my numbers are merely 2007 county population estimates. Unfortunately, 2008 numbers are not yet available, and when they are, those lines are subject to change. It’s all speculation at this point anyway! Newsflash: the actual Census is nearly 13 months away.

    Second, my intention with all these redistricting diaries has not been to produce Democratic gerrymanders. On the contrary, I’m trying to get a feel for what kinds of maps will come out of actual redistricting after the Census, and that means some states will be Democratic gerrymanders, others Republican gerrymanders, some bipartisan incumbent protection plans, some nonpartisan commission plans, etc.

    Anyone who saw my maps for Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, or Texas can plainly see I did not draw the most favorable possible lines for Democrats. That’s because, of the six states I’ve covered so far, only one (Massachusetts) is expected to be run by the Democrats when remap time comes around in 2011-2012. Goodness, I eliminated lefty favorite Dennis Kucinich in Ohio and protected GOP incumbents like Pat Tiberi, Thad McCotter, and Pete Sessions whom I would prefer to see defeated. Obviously, I’m attempting (as best a private citizen with nothing more than Excel, Paint, and a calculator to work with) to approximate the political environment in each state. I think that’s a lot more informative and illuminating than merely drawing my fantasy district boundaries.

    Point three: if Krusty’s numbers are correct, my largest district (Steve King’s District 4) has 18,866 more people than my smallest (the Latham-Boswell District 3). I remember the numbers being far closer to equal than that, but it’s possible one of us messed up with a calculator. I certainly don’t purport to be a math whiz.

    But if population equality is such a fault with my map, Krusty’s isn’t much better. His 4th has 14,645 more people than his 3rd. That seems a fairly significant divergence too, if those numbers are accurate.

    As for an apology, it’s not necessary. This kerfuffle is quite entertaining to me.

  • Interesting conversation

    and I’m pretty thankful that our redistricting process isn’t as politicized as it is in other states.

    I like both maps I’ve seen (by you and Krusty) but I’ve come up with a third that is quite different than yours.

    Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

    QuickPost Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!

    This one pretty much divides the districts into North, South, East, and West.

    Here’s the population estimates.

    District 1 – Orange – 750,000 (24.98%)

    District 2 – Green – 747,000 (24.88%)

    District 3 – Blue – 751,000 (25.02%)

    District 4 – Red – 754,000 (25.12%)

    A couple of things

    >  Des Moines and its suburban counties haven’t ALL been in the same Congressional District for the past two redistrictings.  So I’ve maintained that.

    >  I’ve also kept Linn and Johnson counties together to maintain the metro area there.

    >  I came up with my own estimates for population.  obviously they won’t be perfect, but they are educational guesses.

    >  Finally, each district has two larger metro areas (with the exception of the exceptionally large Polk)

    I like my model it’s the very geographically neutral.  For example, it the model proposed by Nathaniel, it appears that King’s district is getting ready to consume Latham/Boswell’s third district.  My map has tried to avoid that.

    I think this might be a solid model for next year.  Whatcha think?  By the way, this is my first post here.  Nice digs.

    • welcome, and thanks

      for posting an intriguing variation.

    • Very interesting third option...

      Awesome. This is a completely new approach to the puzzle that I hadn’t even thought of.

      The first thing I notice is the news IC/CR/QC district. That would become the most “urban” of the four districts it seems–replacing the “urban” Des Moines area district others envision. Would the Republicans go for that though? Seems like it would be a lock for Dems.

      Of course, to balance that advantage, you removed the QC from the 1st D. and greatly expanded it to the west. That would make Braley’s job much harder, so maybe it’s a wash. Braley/Latham ’12 seems like a very tough fight.

      It looks like the new 3rd would be a lock for Bozwell, since a lot of that territory was his before the last redistricting. And since you’re not throwing Latham into the mix, it looks like this district could stay Boz’s as long as he wants.

      And yeah, the 4th would stay King’s. But you’re right. It looks a lot less like like a hungry Pac-man now.  

Comments