Latest Iowa absentee ballot numbers (as of November 3)

We won't know the final early voting numbers until the Iowa elections are certified a few weeks from now, but after the jump I've posted absentee ballot figures based on the final daily update from the Iowa Secretary of State's Office. Click here for previous tables going back to September 22.

As of yesterday, more than 455,000 Iowans had already returned early ballots to county auditors, a huge increase on total early voting in the 2010 midterm election. Registered Democrats have returned about 8,000 more ballots statewide than Republicans have. If Democrats identified and mobilized more independents to vote early (as happened in 2012), Bruce Braley could go into election day tens of thousands of votes ahead of Joni Ernst. Iowa Republicans typically perform better on election day than Democrats; how much better is open for debate, since the GOP encouraged many more people to vote early this year who previously voted on election day.

Statewide, about 33,000 Democrats, 19,000 Republicans, and 23,000 no-party voters had requested absentee ballots that county auditors had not received as of yesterday. Not every unreturned ballot represents an Iowan who will not vote. Some people mailed ballots that hadn't reached county auditors by yesterday, but those will still count if they either arrive today or arrive before next Monday with a postmark on or before November 3. Other people will hand-deliver ballots to the county auditors today; those will be counted as long as they arrive by 9 pm.

While canvassing the last few days, I've met a bunch of people who plan to "surrender" their absentee ballots at the regular polling place today, then vote with a regular ballot.  

Absentee ballots requested by Iowa voters as of November 3, 2014

Congressional district Democrats Republicans no-party voters Libertarian Iowa Green total
IA-01 57,299 44,153 33,791 175 72 135,490
IA-02 63,376 45,497 33,590 191 108 142,762
IA-03 55,035 49,702 25,604 169 69 130,579
IA-04 41,138 54,673 25,567 110 41 121,529
statewide 216,848 194,025 118,552 645 290 530,360

Absentee ballots received by Iowa county auditors as of November 3, 2014

Congressional district Democrats Republicans no-party voters Libertarian Iowa Green total
IA-01 49,282 40,260 27,734 131 49 117,456
IA-02 54,390 42,004 27,107 147 90 123,738
IA-03 44,307 43,166 19,267 113 46 106,899
IA-04 35,919 50,240 21,290 84 30 107,563
statewide 183,898 175,670 95,398 475 215 455,656

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