I have seen some conflicting takes about Iowa’s early voting trends this year. So let’s take stock of where things stand.

This post draws on the latest figures released by the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, reflecting ballots received by county auditors through Saturday, October 24. That’s halfway through Iowa’s 20-day window for voting before election day.

I am comparing today’s numbers to the official figures from October 31, 2022—the same point before the last midterm election.

My main takeaway: don’t believe any predictions about who will win on November 3 based on which Iowans have already voted.

Let’s start with what we know.

Early voting is up overall

As of this morning, Iowa county auditors had received 265,803 ballots. That’s 66,445 more votes than the total on October 31, 2022, a 33.3 percent increase.

Iowans not affiliated with either party showed the biggest jump in participation. No-party voters had cast 27,144 ballots by this point in the 2022 campaign, but have cast 46,689 ballots as of this morning. That’s up 72 percent, which is probably good news for Democrats.

Rob Sand’s campaign for governor has been identifying and mobilizing independent supporters for at least six months, with canvassers knocking thousands of no-party doors. Most public polling indicates that Sand and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek have an advantage with independents.

As of this morning, registered Republicans had cast 83,880 ballots (up 34 percent compared to this point in 2022), and registered Democrats had cast 134,408 ballots (up 23 percent). Democrats may feel encouraged by the larger overall number, while GOP candidates may feel encouraged by the growing number of Republicans willing to vote early.

More Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots in the competitive first, second, and third Congressional districts. The GOP has banked more votes in the deep-red fourth district.

Voting by mail is down

The data supports what I’ve heard from Democrats for months. Many voters no longer trust the U.S. Postal Service to deliver their ballot on time, in light of President Donald Trump’s attacks on voting by mail. The Iowa Democratic Party’s “coordinated campaign” (known as Iowa Forward) did not push supporters to request a mailed ballot, aside from those who have voted by mail in the past.

As of October 31, 2022, Iowa county auditors had received 98,234 ballots cast by mail, email, or a health care facility. Another 7,108 voters had used drop boxes to return the ballots they received through the mail.

This morning’s report shows auditors have received 67,602 mailed ballots, 67 ballots sent via email, 2,776 cast at a health care facility, and 7,573 returned using a drop box. The total is down about 26 percent compared to the last midterm election.

Reporters have seen similar trends in some other states; Natalie Fertig filed this story for the Washington Sun last week.

Voting early in person is up

Some Republican commentators have cited lower numbers of absentee ballot requests from Democrats as evidence there’s no “enthusiasm gap” favoring the party out of power this year.

But Iowa has seen a big jump in those casting an early ballot in person—the method I recommend for those who do not need to use the mail.

As of this morning, 93,476 Iowans had voted early at their county auditor’s office. That’s up by nearly 35 percent compared to the 69,461 who had voted that way by October 31, 2022.

The increase was higher among no-party voters (65 percent more than four years ago) and Democrats (up 40 percent) than among Republicans (up 17 percent).

Voting in person at satellite locations is also way up, particularly in the third Congressional district (where most voters live in Polk County). Not every county auditor makes satellite voting available; it’s more likely to be an option in larger counties. At this time four years ago, 24,552 Iowans had cast a ballot at a satellite location. Today that number stands at 94,309, more than a threefold increase.

Democrats have cast four times as many ballots through satellite locations as they did at this time in 2022. In fact, more Democrats have voted at a satellite location (52,412) than Republicans (22,194) and independents (19,367) combined.

All of the above may sound encouraging to Democrats, but early vote numbers aren’t necessarily correlated with the final result. Consider what we don’t know:

We don’t know how these Iowans voted

The Iowa Secretary of State’s office releases early vote totals by partisan affiliation. But not everyone registered with a party votes for every candidate from that party. Trump appealed to many registered Democrats, especially in working-class areas.

Sand has made a big play for Republican support in this year’s governor’s race, aware that Democrats can’t win a statewide race without some crossover GOP votes. The available data tells us nothing about how successful he has been.

Independent voters don’t necessarily split down the middle. This year’s Democratic field operation has dedicated a lot of energy to identifying and mobilizing no-party supporters. We can’t tell yet whether that approach paid off.

We don’t know how many votes are still outstanding

I expect at least 1.3 million Iowans to participate in this year’s election. (By comparison, about 1.33 million Iowans cast ballots in the 2018 midterms, and 1.23 million voted in 2022.)

If my turnout projection is close to the mark, then the 265,803 Iowans who voted by the close of business on October 24 amount to at most 20 percent of those who will cast a ballot this year.

Early voters have often leaned Democratic in Iowa. Bruce Braley received about 24,000 more early votes than Joni Ernst in the 2014 U.S. Senate race. But the Republican received more than 118,000 more votes on election day.

Democrats went into election day 2018 with an apparent early vote lead of around 40,000. It wasn’t enough to put Fred Hubbell over the top in the governor’s race against Kim Reynolds.

The final absentee ballot numbers in 2022 showed a Democratic advantage of about 65,000. That wasn’t nearly enough to withstand the huge GOP advantage among election day voters. Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate lost by double digits, and Republicans narrowly defeated Democratic incumbents in the third Congressional district and statewide races for attorney general and state treasurer.

Are the parties turning out new voters?

Some people dismiss early vote data, on the grounds that most of these people would have cast a ballot anyway. In this way of thinking, campaigns that put a lot of energy into turning out early votes are primarily “cannibalizing” their election day numbers, rather than growing their support.

I would argue that every early vote banked is useful. Each ballot cast shrinks the universe that campaigns need to contact for GOTV closer to election day. Every ballot cast eliminates the risk that a voter will change their mind or be unable to vote on November 3 due to an illness or emergency.

That said, there’s no question that banking a vote from someone who never misses an election is less valuable than turning out an early voter who skipped the 2018 or 2022 midterms.

Campaigns and political parties are better placed to judge how good the current numbers look, because they are pulling the voter lists every day. They can tell how many ballots came from reliable or sporadic voters. They may have data from canvassers indicating which voters are confirmed supporters and which were undecided or backing the other side.

Final notes: if you have received a ballot in the mail but haven’t returned it, I would suggest hand-delivering the completed ballot to your county auditor, rather than putting it in the mail. Any ballot that arrives after 8:00 pm on election day cannot be counted, regardless of postmark.

If you plan to vote early in person, remember to bring some form of ID with you. Bring proof of address as well if you’ve moved since the last time you voted, or are registering for the first time in Iowa. This post lists allowable documents for ID and proof of address.

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Top photo is courtesy of the Ankeny Area Democrats.