U.S. House and Senate race discussion thread

Last week’s thread on Congressional races anywhere in the country generated some interesting discussion, so here’s a new thread on any campaigns for the U.S. House or Senate. A few links that caught my eye are after the jump.

In the good news for Republicans column:

Democrat Chris Murphy has been unable to put away GOP candidate Linda McMahon in the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, despite his greater command of policy. Most handicappers are still calling this seat lean Democratic, but it’s too close for comfort.

Reports of Todd Akin’s death have been greatly exaggerated; I would not be surprised to see him beat Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri. However, her recent tv ads are devastating.

In the good news for Democrats column:

Nevada Democrats have extended their voter registration advantage to 90,000, close to the 100,000 edge they had in 2008. Nevada’s open Senate seat has been considered a likely Republican hold for most of the year, but Shelley Berkley is within striking distance in some polls and could benefit from strong Democratic GOTV.

Richard Carmona is making a race of it in Arizona, prompting GOP U.S. Senate nominee Jeff Flake to unleash negative ads.

In the mixed news column:

Outside groups like Crossroads GPS and Americans for Prosperity are still running lots of television and radio commercials in swing states attacking President Barack Obama, or supporting Mitt Romney. A month ago, the nightmare scenario for Romney was those groups abandoning him and spending all their resources on building Republican majorities in Congress. That’s what happened during the final two months of the 1996 campaign, once Bob Dole looked like a sure loser against President Bill Clinton.

If a rising tide for Romney lifts all Republican boats, the continued outside spending on Romney’s behalf could be good news for GOP candidates. On the other hand, some Democratic incumbents and challengers may be relieved that Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity aren’t turning their full attention to the Congressional races.  

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desmoinesdem

  • Important races

    Indiana and Arizona are crucial.  Indiana has four strong candidates running in House seats (Yoder, Mullen, Crooks and State Rep. Scott Reske) I’m a big fan of  Dave Crooks because he is hammering away on trade and China issues. If Joe Donnelly wants to have a prayer at winning he needs four STRONG performances from these House candidates.

    Florida on the other hand where I think we could have recruited strong candidates except in a few spots, but I think Bill Nelson is able to still woo a lot of the people that are out for reach for Obama. Val Dennings is a terrific candidate running against Dan Webster.  I have to admit that I wish FL Dems would have recruited a primary challenge to Grayson.  

    I don’t think we could have done a lot better recruiting House candidates in Arizona, but I suspect Carmona will win or lose on his own merits.    

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