Public Policy Polling has a new poll out on the Iowa governor and U.S. Senate races. Click here for Tom Jensen’s summary and here (pdf) for full results with questionnaire and cross-tabs. PPP surveyed 668 registered Iowa voters between July 5 and 7, producing a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

Highlights: both President Barack Obama (46/50) and Governor Terry Branstad (45/46) are slightly underwater on approval ratings. However, Branstad has double-digit leads over Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Jack Hatch, and State Representative Tyler Olson. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds is much less known than Branstad and is tied with or barely ahead of the Democratic candidates in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups.

In the Senate race, Democratic Representative Bruce Braley has higher name recognition than any of the Republicans and is more liked than disliked by Iowans who have an opinion about him (34 favorable/24 unfavorable). In head to head match-ups, he leads Matt Whitaker by 9 points, Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst and Mark Jacobs by 12 points, and David Young by 13 points.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I wouldn’t read too much into horse race polling 16 months before the election, especially since none of the Senate candidates are particularly well-known, nor are the Democrats running for governor. Braley polls about the same against any of the Republicans now, but as the campaign progresses I believe it will become apparent that certain GOP candidates have more upside than Clovis, for example.  

Here’s your mid-week open thread: all topics welcome. Today’s featured Iowa wildflower is spiderwort, a purple mystery to me when I noticed it near a patch of Prairie smoke in bloom about six weeks ago. Thanks to Bleeding Heartland user conservative demo and others who identified it.

The spiderwort family contains many plants, including the dayflower Bleeding Heartland featured last year. I am not sure whether the pictures below depict Tradescantia ohiensis (Ohio spiderwort) or Tradescantia virginiana (Virginia spiderwort). Wildflowers of the Tallgrass Prairie by Sylvan Runkel and Dean Roosa lists Ohio spiderwort as common in our state. It typically blooms from June through August, but I took the pictures below in late May, near the Meredith bike trail between Gray’s Lake and downtown Des Moines.

Speaking of pretty bluish/purple flowers, this week I’ve finally seen some American bellflowers blooming. That’s one of my Iowa summer favorites.

The typical division of labor in campaigns nowadays is for the candidate to stay mostly positive when communicating with voters, while political parties or outside groups do the hatchet work on opponents. That pattern is already developing in the race for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. Democratic candidate Bruce Braley is touting his record and his stands on the issues as a way to get his name out and identify supporters. Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party has taken a few shots at candidates seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

If future salvos look anything like the website the Iowa Democratic Party created to mock David Young, Braley might be better off without their help.

Former State Senator Swati Dandekar has resigned from the Iowa Utilities Board, effective July 22. Her resignation letter (pdf) does not give any specific reason for the decision but thanks Governor Terry Branstad for the opportunity to serve. The governor accepted Dandekar’s resignation and will search for her replacement. Branstad appointed Dandekar to the three-member Iowa Utilities Board in September 2011, forcing a special election in her swing Senate district (suburban Linn County). Democrat Liz Mathis won that election and was re-elected to a four-year term in 2012.

Dandekar’s term on the utilities board was to run through April 2015. I assume she would not leave that position unless she has decided to run for Congress in the open first district. I am surprised that she seems ready to follow through, because there have been few public signs of life from her exploratory committee since it was created two months ago. For example, there have been no postings on Facebook or twitter since May 9, nor am I aware of any press releases. In my opinion, the Democratic primary will be an uphill battle for Dandekar.

Cedar Rapids attorney Dave O’Brien has events scheduled for July 10 in Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo. Assuming he and Dandekar both announce candidacies in IA-01, that makes five Democrats seeking to replace Bruce Braley: three from Linn County (Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, Dandekar, and O’Brien), State Representative Pat Murphy of Dubuque, and State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic of Waterloo (in the exploratory committee phase for now). I believe at least one or two of those candidates will end up not filing for the ballot next March.  

State Representative Tyler Olson kicked off his campaign for governor in Cedar Rapids this morning. His central theme is no surprise: Iowa needs “fresh leadership” and specifically a leader who appreciates diversity and “understands the speed at which the world is changing.” Olson is 37 years old, while Governor Terry Branstad and the two other Democrats running for governor are all in their 60s.

Olson is on the web here, as well as on Facebook and twitter. After the jump I’ve posted his campaign announcement and some clips from today’s news coverage.

UPDATE: State Senator Rob Hogg spoke at today’s event in Cedar Rapids and confirmed via e-mail that he has endorsed Olson for governor. When Hogg was first elected to the Iowa Senate in 2006, Olson won the Iowa House district Hogg had previously represented. Sue Dvorsky, Olson’s predecessor as Iowa Democratic Party chair, confirmed that she is also “enthusiastically” supporting his gubernatorial campaign.

SECOND UPDATE: State Senator Janet Petersen of Des Moines also endorsed Olson today.

THIRD UPDATE: State Representative Sharon Steckman of Mason City confirmed that she is also endorsing Olson for governor. I’ve added more news clips below.

Former State Senator Staci Appel rolled out her campaign in Iowa’s third Congressional district yesterday. Despite ruling out a race against ten-term Republican Representative Tom Latham earlier this year, citing “family obligations,” Appel filed papers with the Federal Election Commission a few days ago. After the jump I’ve posted background on the candidate, including her introductory video (with transcript) and an e-mail stating the case for her candidacy.

Many Democrats in Iowa and Washington have urged Appel to run for Congress, especially since Latham’s first declared challenger Mike Sherzan ended his campaign in April.

IA-03 is a swing district on paper, containing 157,406 registered Democrats, 164,101 Republicans, and 156,340 no-party voters as of July 2013. That said, any Democratic nominee will be an underdog Latham. He says and does little in Congress but has a history of outperforming the top of the Republican ticket.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign announced four hires today in preparation for next year’s election. I’ve posted the campaign press release after the jump. Phil Valenziano, who will serve as political director, joined the Branstad campaign full-time two months ago to focus on grassroots organizing and public events. Jake Ketzner and Jimmy Centers will serve as campaign manager and communications director, respectively. Both have worked in the governor’s office for some time but left for a while to help run Representative Steve King’s 2012 re-election campaign. Vonna Hall will be the Branstad campaign’s office manager after doing the same job for the Republican Party of Iowa since 2010. So far, Branstad’s campaign has $2 million cash on hand. When the fundraising reports are available online, Bleeding Heartland will take a closer look at the donors.

Meanwhile, State Representative Tyler Olson has scheduled public events for July 9 in Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Mason City. Of those cities, only Cedar Rapids is in the first Congressional district, making it a near-certainty that Olson will announce his campaign for governor tomorrow. The four-term Iowa House Democrat is roughly the same age Branstad was when he first ran for governor in 1982. Two other Democrats have previously announced plans to run for governor: State Senator Jack Hatch and former State Representative Bob Krause.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread. My Facebook and Twitter feeds are replete with jokes about Branstad racing “full speed ahead” on his campaign–a reference to the speeding incident that prompted a 25-year veteran of the Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation to file a formal complaint. There is no excuse for state troopers driving the governor at 20-25 mph over the speed limit. He’s not above the law and shouldn’t endanger people’s lives to get back on what Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds calls an “ambitious schedule.” It’s not credible to suggest that Branstad has no input on the driving or didn’t realize his SUV he was riding in was speeding.

The Iowa Democratic Party launched an anti-Branstad “Iowa Problem Causer” website today. Republicans (not clear whether in Iowa or on the National Republican Senatorial Committee) have registered a similarly named Iowa Problem Causer site to shine an unflattering spotlight on Representative Bruce Braley. The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate is presenting himself as an “Iowa Problem Solver.”

UPDATE: Senate President Pam Jochum told the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald that she is not likely to run for governor next year, “but I haven’t made up mind for sure.”

State Representative Mark Lofgren’s daughter Emily Lofgren announced on twitter this morning that she will seek to replace her father in Iowa House district 91 next year. Mark Lofgren is running for Congress against four-term incumbent Dave Loebsack.

A Muscatine native and 2012 graduate of Drake University in Des Moines, Emily Lofgren has been active in Republican politics for years. She managed her father’s successful campaign against Democratic State Representative Nathan Reichert in 2010. She has spent the last academic year teaching English in China and and had planned to spend another year there after coming home for the summer. I assume that she won’t return to China now that she has decided to run for the state legislature.

Unlike State Representative Bobby Kaufmann, who faced no GOP rivals to represent House district 73 after his father Jeff Kaufmann left the legislature, Lofgren will have competition in next year’s primary. Last week, Muscatine City Council member Mark LeRette announced his plans to run in House district 91. LeRette is a past chair of the Muscatine County Republican Party.

Click here to view a district map and the latest voter registration numbers in House district 91, a swing seat. I’ve posted more background on Emily Lofgren below. To my knowledge, she hasn’t launched a campaign website yet. She blogs about “simple, happy living” here and about her experiences in China here.

I’m not personally acquainted with any Muscatine County Republicans, but I would guess that a city council member with experience on various local boards has a better chance in the GOP primary than a recent college graduate/internet life coach.

Two-term Iowa House Democrat Anesa Kajtazovic announced today that she is exploring a run for Congress in Iowa’s first district. She plans a “listening tour” in the 20 counties. I haven’t seen a campaign website yet, but Kajtazovic has a Facebook page here. I’ve posted her official bio after the jump. Kajtazovic was first elected to an Iowa House seat covering part of Waterloo in 2010. Her primary challenge prompted then-incumbent State Representative Kerry Burt to retire under pressure. She has long been considered a “rising star” in Iowa Democratic circles. Running for Congress would mean that she cannot seek re-election in House district 61 next year. She tweeted on July 3, “‘Sometimes the riskiest decision we make can turn out to be the best’ a friend once told me……”

If elected, Kajtazovic would be one of the youngest members of the U.S. House (she turns 27 next year). She might also become the only Bosnia native in Congress. Her family fled the war in former Yugoslavia during the 1990s, and she commented today, “I was always pasionate about policy, and just what goes on in the world around. I think I was influenced at a young age that it really does matter, after going through war.”

The other declared Democratic candidates in IA-01 are former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy of Dubuque and Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon. I haven’t seen much sign of activity from former State Senator Swati Dandekar’s exploratory committee. State Representative Tyler Olson hasn’t ruled out running for Congress yet, but most expect him to announce a gubernatorial campaign soon. Like Vernon, Dandekar and Olson are from Linn County. Kajtazovic’s home county, Black Hawk, is the second-largest by population in IA-01, followed by Dubuque.

John Deeth is on board with Kajtazovic already. I’ll be happy to see any strong candidate emerge from a clean, competitive primary. It can’t be bad to have several Democrats pounding the pavement to ID supporters next spring. IA-01 leans Democratic but isn’t a safe seat, especially in a midterm election year. As of July 2013, the 20 counties contained a total of 162,549 active registered Democrats, 136,259 Republicans, and 192,142 no-party voters. UPDATE: Added Kajtazovic’s official announcement below.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

I’ve been thinking about how bad assumptions produce flawed theories and poor decisions. Steve Denning wrote an excellent piece for Forbes about Milton Friedman and the origin of “the world’s dumbest idea”: “that the sole purpose of a firm is to make money for its shareholders.”

Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for the conservative website RealClearPolitics, recently spun some rosy scenarios for Republicans worried about their party’s over-reliance on white voters. GOP candidates would be extremely foolish to count on his “racial polarization” scenario panning out. His “full Rubio” and “modest Republican outreach toward Hispanics” scenarios seem too optimistic to me as well.

High nitrate levels in Iowa waterways continue to make news, as they have for the last two months. I enjoyed this Des Moines Register editorial from Saturday’s paper. Excerpt:

During a meeting with The Des Moines Register’s editorial board earlier this year, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen made the claim that Iowa’s rivers are actually cleaner today than they were in the past. The evidence to the contrary is overwhelming. But Paulsen’s comment speaks to a troubling mentality that permeates the Iowa Legislature: If you just tell Iowans the water is OK often enough, maybe they will believe you and will think the lake they are swimming in doesn’t really smell like a toilet.

I don’t take my kids swimming in any Iowa lakes, and I won’t feel a bit sorry for Paulsen if he runs for Congress and loses the Republican primary, as I expect.

In 2010, the Iowa legislative approved and Governor Chet Culver signed a bill to curb abuses at so-called “puppy mills.” The lawmakers who worked hardest to pass this bill were Iowa House Democrats Jim Lykam and Mark Kuhn and Iowa Senate Democrats Matt McCoy and Joe Seng, a veterinarian.

Unfortunately, at least a few bad actors still lurk among the hundreds of Iowa dog breeders. A new report by the Humane Society of the U.S. named eight Iowa puppy mills among the country’s “Horrible Hundred.” You can read the list in this Radio Iowa story, but after the jump I’ve posted the revolting details from the report, along with advice on how to buy a dog without supporting puppy mills. Please spread the word among your friends and family.

While there are many responsible breeders, I urge everyone who wants a dog to consider adopting a shelter animal. Nine years ago today, a friend driving through Cass County found a friendly stray along a country road. She took him round to a few farms in the area, but no one recognized the dog. (Most likely, someone who could no longer take care of him dumped him in the country after removing his collar.) My friend took him home, bathed and fed him, and brought him to the Animal Rescue League, because she already owned three dogs. Having found him near Noble Methodist Church, she named him Noble. His temperament was a perfect match for our family, and as an adult, he was house-trained and not prone to chew up everything in sight.

Each party has at least one candidate ready to run in Iowa House district 91 next year. Republican Mark Lofgren is leaving the seat open in order to run for Congress against Representative Dave Loebsack. As of July 2013, House district 91 contained 6,298 registered Democrats, 6,287 Republicans, and 8,425 no-party voters.

Earlier this week, Muscatine City Council member Mark LeRette told the Muscatine Journal and The Iowa Republican blog that he plans to run for House district 91. LeRette is a past chair of the Muscatine County Republican Party.

Last year’s Democratic candidate John Dabeet confirmed to me yesterday that he will seek the office again in 2014. Dabeet plans to formally launch his campaign at the Muscatine County Democratic Party’s August central committee meeting. UPDATE: Forgot to mention that in November 2012, Lofgren defeated Dabeet by 7,426 votes to 6,511 (53.3 percent to 46.7 percent). Turnout is sure to be lower in a midterm election.

After the jump I’ve posted a district map and background on LeRette and Dabeet. Some have speculated that Lofgren’s daughter Emily Lofgren might become a candidate in House district 91. Emily Lofgren ran her father’s first Iowa House campaign in 2010, when he defeated three-term incumbent Democrat Nathan Reichert.

Since last week’s featured flower was strangely white, stem and all, I wanted to include a splash of color today. After the jump you can find several photos of butterfly milkweed, a gorgeous prairie plant that is easy to grow from seed in gardens. As the name suggests, butterflies love the bright orange flowers. The plant is more striking than the common milkweed that’s more prevalent along Iowa roadsides.

I also included below some pictures of elderberry shrubs, which are blooming in Iowa now. I saw tons this week on the Windsor Heights bike trail, the Clive Greenbelt trail, and the Jordan Creek trail in West Des Moines. Some people collect the elderflowers to make cordial. I’ve never tried it but have heard it’s tasty. The flower clusters can also be battered and fried. Later this year, the dark purple, almost black elderberries can be used in baked desserts or turned into syrup or tincture that may boost immunity.

Finally, I enclose a photo of a white flower I haven’t been able to identify. If you recognize this plant, blooming now in wooded areas of central Iowa, please post a comment in this thread or send an e-mail to desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com. UPDATE: Twitter user Lynzey515 suggests that the mystery flower is White avens (Geum canadense). That looks like a strong possibility.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Practically every Iowa town is holding an Independence Day parade tonight or tomorrow. Several Democratic statewide candidates will be at the Freedom Fest Parade in Coralville. Even in an off-year, your county party or a local candidate may be looking for help during the event.

I enclose below a slightly altered version of this diary, containing my best advice for parade volunteers.

The Brennan Center for Justice released a new study today in which Alicia Bannon analyzed judicial vacancies in federal district courts. Key finding: “for the first time in 20 years, judicial vacancies averaged more than 60 vacant seats for five straight years from 2009-2013, breaking historic patterns and delaying the resolution of critical legal disputes in civil and criminal trials.” You can find the whole report on “Trial Courts in Trouble” here. After the jump I’ve posted the Brennan Center’s press release and an excerpt from the report’s introduction, along with some comments by Jonathan Bernstein.

Since Barack Obama became president, Senate Republicans have increasingly delayed consideration of district court nominees, whereas previously only appeals court and Supreme Court judges could expect a politicized confirmation process.

Senator Chuck Grassley, the ranking GOP senator on the Judiciary Committee since 2011, has claimed that Republicans are voting on more judicial nominees this year than Senate Democrats did early in President George W. Bush’s second term. However, Bannon’s research confirms earlier analysis showing that Obama’s judicial nominees are waiting longer for votes than Bush’s did. Four and a half years into Bush’s presidency, the Senate had placed more of his judges on the bench. Unfortunately, Obama has also been “slower to nominate” judges than either Bush or President Bill Clinton.

After several months of preparations, Jim Mowrer made it official today: he is challenging Representative Steve King in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. I’ve posted his formal announcement after the jump. His campaign is on the web here and also on Facebook and twitter.

Mowrer grew up in Boone and lived in Des Moines for a time after his tour in Iraq. He headed the Iowa Veterans for Joe Biden committee in 2007 and was Midwest Veterans Chair for the Obama-Biden campaign in 2008. He was a private contractor in Iraq during 2009 before getting a job as special assistant to the Under Secretary of the Army in the U.S. Department of Defense. Mowrer has also been a senior adviser to Vote Vets, a political advocacy group focused on veterans’ issues.

Mowrer recently resigned from his Pentagon job and returned to Boone with his wife and two sons. Speaking to Radio Iowa, he criticized politicians who focus on partisan sound bites rather than accomplishments:

“The work that I did there [at the Pentagon] was on making the Army and our defense more efficient and effective and saving taxpayer dollars and ensuring that we have the strongest Army the world has ever seen,” Mowrer said, “so I’m running for congress because I saw firsthand the problems and the damages that a broken congress can cause and I want to be a part of the solution.” […]

“Democrats and Republicans need to work together to get things done,” Mowrer said. “Regardless of party, people on extremes on both sides need to come to the table to find common sense solutions to make sure they protect middle class families like the one I grew up in.” […]

“Steve King isn’t working for Iowans. He’s not working for the 4th district and I have a record of actually getting things done,” Mowrer said.

Mowrer would need strong Democratic turnout and probably 70 percent of the independents to have any prayer against King. As of July 2013, IA-04 contained 127,701 registered Democrats, 178,309 Republicans, and 173,985 no-party voters.

UPDATE: Ben Nesselhuf resigned as South Dakota Democratic Party chair in order to manage Mowrer’s campaign. I’ve also added Mowrer’s official bio below.

David Osterberg stepped down yesterday as executive director of the Iowa Policy Project, Iowa’s leading think tank. A legendary figure in this state’s environmental community, Osterberg served six terms in the Iowa House, chairing the Agriculture Committee for four years and the Energy and Environmental Protection Committee for two years. He has received honors and awards from many non-profit organizations and was the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate against Chuck Grassley in 1998.

In 2001, Osterberg created the Iowa Policy Project “to bring a fact-based focus to public policy issues affecting Iowa families.” The organization’s research reports and Iowa Policy Points blog are must-reads for anyone interested in state policy. In conjunction with the Des Moines-based Child and Family Policy Center, the Iowa Policy Project also publishes valuable research on the Iowa Fiscal Partnership website. The latest Iowa Fiscal Partnership report shows how food assistance programs in the Farm Bill affect thousands of Iowans.

I was pleased to read in the statement enclosed below that Osterberg will keep working with the Iowa Policy Project on energy and environment research, and longtime assistant director Mike Owen will take over as executive director.  

Ronald Reagan was 69 years old in 1980 and 73 years old in 1984. George H.W. Bush was 64 when first elected president and 68 when he ran for re-election. John McCain was 71 when nominated for president in 2008. Yet Republican politicians and strategists appear to believe that Hillary Clinton’s age and long time on the national stage will be potent factors working against her possible candidacy in 2016. One experienced GOP campaign hand even believes Democrats will raise concerns about Clinton’s age before Republicans will.

Dream on.  

The path appears clear for passionately conservative State Representative Jason Schultz to move up to Iowa Senate district 9 in next year’s election. Longtime State Senator Nancy Boettger announced Friday that she will retire. Although she’s one of the longest-serving Iowa Senate Republicans, she’s never played a particularly important role. The last three Senate minority leaders haven’t tapped Boettger for their leadership teams.

Boettger’s retirement creates a career advancement opportunity in the strongly Republican Senate district 9. The two obvious potential candidates are State Representatives Matt Windschitl and Jason Schultz, who represent both halves of the district in the Iowa House. Within hours, Schultz announced his Senate candidacy. Windschitl told The Iowa Republican blog over the weekend that he will stay in the Iowa House. Windschitl is one of the GOP’s rising stars and serves as an assistant House majority leader, but he’s drawn criticism from some “pro-life” activists as not strong enough on their issue. In contrast, Schultz co-sponsored the most extreme version of “personhood” legislation and has fought to get a personhood vote on the Iowa House floor when Windschitl and others blocked a vote on that legislation. (Windschitl introduced a different “personhood” bill this year.)

After the jump I’ve posted a map of Senate district 9 and the latest voter registration numbers for the district, along with Schultz’s official bio. It’s also worth noting that Schultz chairs the Iowa House Local Government Committee and previously chaired the Appropriations subcommittee on economic development. He endorsed Ron Paul for president in 2012. In my opinion, he’s a contender for most clueless Iowa legislator. His passionate opposition to marriage equality prompted him to introduce one of the dumbest bills I’ve heard of, which would have banned Iowa judges from citing case law or precedent in their rulings. Schultz also joined a small group of legislators who threatened to yank state funding for the Des Moines Area Community College over the Governors LGBTQ Youth Conference.

Republican State Senator Kent Sorenson no longer has to worry about open court testimony regarding his alleged theft of a homeschooling organization’s e-mail list on behalf of Representative Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign in late 2011. Bachmann has settled the lawsuit her former presidential campaign staffer Barb Heki announced last year. On Friday, Heki’s attorney filed legal papers to dismiss the case. In a statement provided to The Iowa Republican blog, Bachmann said,

“Barb Heki is a trustworthy person and a woman of integrity. She was a loyal member of the Bachmann for President team and capably performed her duties. I am not aware of any evidence whatsoever that Barb had any part in misusing or misappropriating NICHE’s email list of homeschoolers and I consider her an exemplary homeschooling leader.”

It’s not clear whether Bachmann agreed to pay any compensation to Heki or her husband for damage done to their reputations. They had to resign from a national homeschooling organization’s board after the Bachmann campaign hung Heki out to dry. Heki won’t be able to re-file the lawsuit, because it was dismissed “with prejudice.”

Sorenson’s attorney Ted Sporer told the Des Moines Register that “the settlement included a release of all claims with no admission of wrongdoing by his client.” Previously, a trial date for Heki’s lawsuit had been set for May 2014, meaning the case would have been big local news shortly before the June primary election. To my knowledge, no Republican has declared plans to challenge Sorenson in Iowa Senate district 13, but I’d be looking for new representation if I were a Republican in that district. A former aide to Sorenson acknowledged downloading the list from Heki’s computer, but other sources have said Sorenson was involved.

Technically, the Urbandale Police Department has a criminal case open regarding the theft, but I doubt charges will ever be filed. Sorenson still faces an ethics investigation into indirect salary payments he allegedly received from the Bachmann campaign, but I don’t expect the Iowa Senate Ethics Committee to impose any serious consequences.