# 2024 Elections



How redistricting helped Republicans expand Iowa Senate majority

Seventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Republicans will hold 35 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats when the legislature reconvenes in 2025, a net gain of one from the 34-16 GOP majority of the past two years. The results were finalized on November 22 and November 25 following recounts in two close races.

According to the legislature’s official website, the fifteen-member Democratic caucus will be the smallest contingent for the party in the Iowa Senate since the early 1960s. Maintaining a two-thirds majority means Republicans will be able to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any Democratic support.

Redistricting played a role in all three districts where party control changed. The demise of ticket-splitting was also apparent, as three incumbents lost in areas where their constituents preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

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Top Iowa Republicans smear Ann Selzer

Ann Selzer is stepping back from polling elections after conducting the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register for the last 27 years, she announced on November 17.

Top Iowa Republicans reacted by accusing Selzer of “skewing” her numbers or publishing “fake news polling”—all because her final Iowa Poll was way off the mark.

The attacks on Selzer—not from MAGA randos, but from the heart of the GOP establishment—reflect a broader Republican strategy to discredit mainstream media outlets like the Des Moines Register. They also validate unhinged behavior like President-elect Donald Trump’s call for Selzer to be criminally investigated.

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How mid-sized cities became Iowa Democrats' biggest problem

Sixth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

The 2024 elections could hardly have gone worse for Iowa Democrats. Donald Trump carried the state by more than 13 points—a larger margin than Ronald Reagan managed here in either of his campaigns, and the largest winning margin for any presidential candidate in Iowa since Richard Nixon in 1972. The GOP swept the Congressional races for the second straight cycle and expanded their lopsided majorities in the legislature.

Support for Democrats has eroded in Iowa communities of all sizes—from large metro areas like Scott County (which voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1984) to rural counties that were always red, but now routinely deliver more than 70 percent of the vote to GOP candidates.

This post highlights the growing problem for Democrats in Iowa’s mid-sized cities. I focus on eleven counties where Democratic candidates performed well in the recent past, but now trail Republicans in state and federal races.

Changing political trends in mid-sized cities explain why Democrats will have smaller contingents in the Iowa House and Senate than at any time since 1970. Voters in six of these counties also saved U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks from a strong challenge by Democrat Christina Bohannan in the first Congressional district.

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The Democratic message in an era of fear, anger, and self-interest

Tom Walton is an attorney in Dallas County.

An analysis of any political defeat must start with the message—what did you say to voters about why they should vote for you, and how did you say it? When you’re shut out of every branch of government, the only thing you have left is your message.

When commentators have focused on the Democratic losing message in 2024, they criticized many things, including “performative ‘wokeness’—the in-group messaging used by hyper-online and overeducated progressives” and “the stale politics of identity.” Too much about abortion—not enough about how hard it was for folks to just get by.

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Miller-Meeks expects "tough road" for House Republicans in 2026

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has not officially been re-elected in Iowa’s first Congressional district, where Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan is seeking a recount in all 20 counties. But a message to fellow House Republicans indicates the IA-01 incumbent is already worried about the “tough road” facing members from swing districts during the 2026 election cycle.

Miller-Meeks failed in her bid to become House Conference secretary, the sixth-ranking GOP leadership position. It’s not clear how many Republicans supported her on November 13, when she finished third of three candidates on the first ballot. Caucus members then elected Representative Erin Houchin of Indiana over Mark Alford of Missouri. Both represent safe GOP districts.

A “Dear colleague” letter Miller-Meeks circulated on November 12—enclosed in full below—warned Republicans will struggle to expand their majority without including members from “battleground districts” in the party’s leadership.

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Mixed messages from Bob Vander Plaats on the ballot box and revival

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.

I read the op-ed Bob Vander Plaats wrote for the Des Moines Register last week. It’s glowingly referenced on the Facebook page of his organization, The FAMiLY Leader.

I remember Vander Plaats when he got his knickers in a twist because the Iowa Supreme Court decided the Iowa Constitution’s equal protection clause applied to gay and lesbian people. The court unanimously held in the Varnum v. Brien decision from 2009 that Iowa’s “Defense of Marriage Act” was unconstitutional. The ruling paved the way for same-sex couples to solemnize their relationships under Iowa’s marriage laws.

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Overachievers and underachievers in Iowa's 2024 races for Congress

Fourth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

As ticket-splitting has declined in recent election cycles, few Iowa candidates have managed to win where the other party has a big advantage at the top of the ticket. So it was in Iowa’s 2024 Congressional races: former President Donald Trump outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in all four U.S. House districts, which helped GOP incumbents hold off their Democratic opponents.

But one challenger massively outperformed Harris, and Trump barely pulled one underachieving incumbent over the line.

Election analyst Drew Savicki was first to publish the 2024 presidential vote and swing in Iowa’s U.S. House districts. I later confirmed his calculations, using unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State.

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A hard day's night

Bill Bumgarner is a retired former health care executive from northwest Iowa who worked
in hospital management for 41 years, predominantly in the state of Iowa.

The American people have decided to entrust Donald Trump with their present and their future for the next four years.

That’s how elections work. That’s democracy.

Voters have empowered the president-elect to seek whatever policy objectives he chooses to pursue. Americans should support Trump when his policies make sense. We should oppose him vigorously when his intent is not consistent with our values.

That’s democracy, too.

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This is who we are. What are we going to do about it?

Jason Benell lives in Des Moines with his wife and two children. He is a combat veteran, former city council candidate, and president of Iowa Atheists and Freethinkers.

The results of the 2024 elections are in and the dust is settling—quite a bit faster than we expected it to—and we as citizens have a lot to consider about what it means to be in the United States of America.

This must be a reckoning of what we are dealing with as a purported democratic people that enjoy equal protections under the law and unprecedented personal liberties. This must be a reckoning of what and who we are as a people.

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It was a mean, transactional election

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

The corpse of the losing presidential campaign isn’t cold, and they’re sharpening knives for the autopsy. As always, according to the know-it-all people the losing campaign was rife with mistakes, missteps, and was generally inept. The winning campaign was flawless, brilliant, and ordained by God. If you don’t believe me, open Facebook and you’ll see it.

I don’t have the expertise or stomach for a full autopsy. I’ll leave that to professional political pundits. I do have a couple of observations about the 2024 campaign, though.

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Iowa Democrats need to do things differently

Jack Hatch is a retired state senator and was the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor.

As a well-used phrase suggests, “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.”

Our Democratic message was strong, and our attention to our deeply held values of equality, inclusion, and freedom was spot-on. But in Iowa, our organizational structure is off base.  

We lost seats in the Iowa House and Senate and lost two very close races for Congress. Without a strong party organization that represents our coalition, Democrats will continue to lose. This is not a reflection on our party leaders, as much as, it is a reflection of the organization at all levels. We can’t move voters if we don’t engage in a conversation, and we must reach out to them.

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Donald Trump expands footprint in Iowa's Mississippi River valley

Third in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Ed Tibbetts, a longtime reporter and editor in the Quad-Cities, is the publisher of the Along the Mississippi newsletter, where this article first appeared. Find more of his work at edtibbetts.substack.com.

Donald Trump’s mastery of Iowa in the 2024 election is no more apparent than his performance in a batch of counties that border the Mississippi River.

For the last eight years, this region has been clearly in Trump’s corner. But it shifted even more decisively in his favor Tuesday.

Trump won these ten counties by more than 34,000 votes, according to unofficial results.

There were still a small number of ballots to be counted, but Trump’s victory in this region approached Barack Obama’s historic wins in 2012, at least in numeric terms. And, compared to four years ago, Trump won this stretch of Iowa by more than double the number of votes than he did against Joe Biden.

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Excluding the Libertarian may have saved Miller-Meeks in IA-01

Second in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

The successful Republican effort to knock Libertarians off the ballot in three U.S. House districts may have influenced the outcome in at least one of them.

All three affected Libertarian candidates—Nicholas Gluba in the first Congressional district, Marco Battaglia in the third, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth—indicated that they would continue to run as write-in candidates. Unofficial results show write-in votes for Iowa’s four U.S. House races this year totaled 3,616—about 0.23 percent of the 1,602,409 ballots cast for a Congressional candidate.

When Libertarian candidates have been on the ballot for recent Iowa Congressional elections, they have typically received 2-3 percent of the vote.

AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FIRST DISTRICT

In IA-01, unofficial results show Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by 796 votes (49.98 percent to 49.79 percent). Bohannan has not conceded, and the race has not been called. But it’s unlikely that enough provisional ballots remain to be counted for her to overtake Miller-Meeks. Iowa no longer counts absentee ballots that arrive after election day.

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Lessons of 2024: Iowa's not an outlier

First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Two years ago, Iowa appeared to be on a different trajectory than much of the country. As Democrats won many of the midterm election races, including in our Midwestern neighboring states, Iowa experienced yet another “red wave.” Six of the last eight general elections in Iowa have been GOP landslides.

On November 5, Donald Trump improved on his 2020 performance almost across the board: in blue states like New York and New Jersey, swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and red states like Texas and Iowa. He gained in rural counties, suburban counties, and urban centers, in states where both presidential candidates campaigned intensely, and in states where there was no “ground game” or barrage of political advertising. He gained among almost every demographic group except for college-educated women. He may become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and only the second GOP nominee to win the popular vote since 1988.

The Trump resurgence isn’t unique to Iowa, or even the U.S.—grievance politics has been winning elections all over the world lately.

But that’s no comfort to Democrats here, who probably won’t win back any Congressional districts and suffered more losses among their already small contingents in the Iowa House and Senate.

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Sixteen Iowa House races to watch in 2024

This post has been updated with the unofficial results from each race. Original post follows.

Democrats go into the November 5 election with the smallest Iowa House contingent they’ve had in five decades. But even though control of the chamber is not in question, this year’s state House races matter.

Despite having a 64 to 36 advantage for the past two years, Republicans struggled to find 51 votes for some of their controversial legislation, such as Governor Kim Reynolds’ plan to overhaul the Area Education Agencies. So chipping away at the GOP majority could help limit further damage to public education or civil rights.

Conversely, a net loss of Democratic-held seats would allow the majority to govern with even fewer constraints.

This post highlights nine Iowa House seats most at risk of flipping, plus seven districts that could be competitive, or where the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. I will update later with unofficial results from all of these races.

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A loss worth mourning: newspaper presidential endorsements

Arnold Garson is a semi-retired journalist and executive who worked for 46 years in the newspaper industry, including almost 20 years at The Des Moines Register. He writes the Substack newsletter Second Thoughts, where this article first appeared.

Presidential endorsements in American newspapers had a good run—more than 150 years—and America is the better for it.

Their disappearance, beginning five to ten years ago and mushrooming this year, has been a product of changing times for newspapers and newspaper ownership, and the increasing divisiveness in our society. Though explainable, it is sad and unfortunate. 

It is worth remembering that newspapers got into the endorsement business because the owners and editors knew an informed electorate would be advantageous to the country as well as the newspaper industry.  

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When will we stop politicizing Iowa's judiciary?

DSM Lawyer is an attorney in central Iowa.

When will we stop politicizing the judiciary? I practice in Polk County District Court Associate Judge Rachael Seymour’s courtroom all the time and have thoughts about why she received low marks in the Iowa State Bar Association’s judicial performance review.

Yes, hearings in her courtroom tend not to run on time, and she can take a long time to issue a written ruling. Why? Because she’s extremely thorough when we’re in court, and she gives a complete verbal ruling while you’re there. She wants to have all the possible information before making decisions that affect families, and she takes time to review all of the written evidence as well as review her notes prior to finalizing the written ruling.

Even the Iowa Court of Appeals recently noted the thoroughness of one of her rulings. This is a good thing, because it ensures everyone has all the same information rather than relying on our own individual recollections of what happened. I generally find that if I just pad my own schedule a little there’s no issue.

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Music out, lies and hate in for 2024 campaigns

Herb Strentz was dean of the Drake School of Journalism from 1975 to 1988 and professor there until retirement in 2004. He was executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council from its founding in 1976 to 2000.

Out of desperation, as a fearful election day looms, let’s grasp at some straws to try to make sense of what we’ve been through and, even worse, what might be ahead.

For example, some political campaigns have had musical themes.

Few, if any Bleeding Heartland readers were around in 1932 to sing along with “Happy Days Are Here Again,” the theme of Franklin’s D. Roosevelt’s anti-Depression campaign against President Herbert Hoover.

More of us may recall Marilyn Maye’s catchy version of “Step to the Rear (and Let a Winner Lead the Way)” sung on behalf of Governor Robert D. Ray. (Warning: Before listening to Ms Maye, be prepared for tears if you are subject to emotional responses in recalling the more congenial, bipartisan days of the Ray administrations, when Democrats generally accepted letting Ray “lead the way.”)

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Vote for freedom and representation Iowans can be proud of

Sami Scheetz represents Iowa House district 78, covering part of Cedar Rapids.

When we brought our daughter home from the hospital a few months ago, and I watched our baby swaddled in her bassinet, sleeping peacefully, I couldn’t help but think about the future my wife and I are building for her. Now, with the November 5 election a few days away, I wonder: What kind of place will Iowa be for families today and for generations to come?

When my daughter grows up, will she find an Iowa that is as inclusive, welcoming, and safe as the one I inherited—or will she find an Iowa neither of us recognize, a place where people feel they have little in common with their government, and their voices are not heard?

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Good anger

Andy Johnson works in the locally-owned clean energy transition, and farms with his wife and three daughters in rural Winneshiek County, northeast Iowa.

Is Kamala Harris angry? I sure as hell hope so, and I wish she’d say so.

The angry American right does its darnedest to paint her as an angry Black woman. This angry white male Iowa farmer wishes she’d get mad, in a good way.

Here is what I imagine she might say.

“Fellow Americans, I’m angry!

“I’m angry that so many of us blindly picture our two candidates for national leadership as either an angry white man or an angry black woman. We’re better than that.

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The African-American vote and Kamala Harris

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

In November of last year, I asked, “Are Republicans really gaining among Black voters?” Since then, political reporters have written article after article on the subject. A New York Times story about a recent poll declared, “Black voters drift from Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid.” This week, Newsweek wrote about a different poll using the headline, “Donald Trump sees surge in support among Black Virginia Voters.”

Before I get the data, I want to make a serious point. These stories insulate Trump from the plain meaning of his language. See, he tells his supporters, I am not a racist: Black people are voting for me. So, while this question may seem like something only data nerds should care about, media coverage of the African-American vote has very real consequences for the political conversation in this country.

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Nazi analogies and today's U.S. political landscape

Henry Jay Karp is the Rabbi Emeritus of Temple Emanuel in Davenport, Iowa, which he served from 1985 to 2017. He is the co-founder and co-convener of One Human Family QCA, a social justice organization.

In 1990, Michael Godwin observed a phenomenon on internet and proposed a concept known as “Godwin’s Law of Nazi Analogies.” It stated, “As an online discussion continues, the probability of a reference or comparison to Hitler or Nazis approaches one.” Godwin’s law quickly spread to all forms of conversations and debates on hot-button issues.

Folks like me, who did not grasp the meaning of the phrase “approaches one,” have explained it as either “you know the discussion has gone on too long” or “that thread is over and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically lost whatever argument was in progress.” As a writer in the Guardian once reframed it, “The longer an argument runs, the greater the likelihood Hitler gets mentioned.”

The point of this rule is that Nazi analogies are over the top. They are a kind of hyperbole that trivializes an argument, using reckless and thoughtless comparisons to win.

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Trump's rhetoric divides us

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

Before malls became teen hang outs, there were drive-in theaters. In the 1970s, they attracted teens and were a place to dream about bench seat heaven with a date. After all, they were known as “passion pits.”

The crowd at the local “passion pit” didn’t really care about deep plot lines and moving themes. When you pulled into a spot with a date, you were showing your world, you were stepping out. There were always a few families, but the place was filled with teens.

Movie makers knew what their audience craved, and they fed them. You could watch three movies in one night, and they were the weirdest, wildest horror films ever made.

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Eleven Iowa Senate races to watch in 2024

This post has been updated with unofficial results from the November 5 election, as well as the final pre-election campaign finance disclosures and absentee ballot totals as of November 2. Original post follows.

Republicans currently hold 34 Iowa Senate seats—the largest GOP contingent in that chamber since 1973. Democrats are not realistically contending to regain the Senate majority in November. So why pay any attention to these legislative races?

Although the most competitive state Senate races won’t determine control of the chamber, they could reveal a lot about each party’s strengths with certain kinds of voters. A good night for Republicans would indicate that the Trump-era realignment has moved further into Iowa’s former blue regions. A good night for Democrats could pull the GOP below the two-thirds threshold, which has allowed Senate Republicans to confirm all of Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any support from the minority party.

This post highlights four state Senate districts at most risk of flipping, and another seven districts where even without a big investment by Democrats or Republicans, the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. A forthcoming article will cover state House races to watch in 2024.

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Pesky political TV ads are short on context

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. 

It’s a challenge, but not impossible, to find topics on which Republicans and Democrats share the same view these days. Here’s one: election day means we can all celebrate the end of those infernal television commercials. 

My tolerance for these ads has never been high. One reason is the way their assertions oversimplify the pluses (or the minuses) of one candidate’s or the other’s stand on some issue.

It is not really a surprise, however, because politicians have long claimed they will solve some problem or their opponent is to blame for that problem.

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A border tale

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.

In the time before the election, I’ve become a TV junkie. So, I did see a clip of Donald Trump trying to win votes in Pennsylvania by telling penis jokes. It shows how low he and his applauding fans can go.

Arnold Palmer’s daughter told ABC News Donald Trump had disrespected her late father’s memory by fawning over the size of the golf champion’s penis. There’ll probably be a cross burned in their front yard.

It’s now nine days until voters decide the fate of the nation and possibly the whole world. I’m on pins and needles. Anxious, and frankly, scared.

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Iowa ag sector quiet about Trump's damaging tariff plans

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column.

Pundits are fond of saying that elections are about the economy, and people’s relationship to it. “It’s the economy, stupid” and all that. It may be true—but there’s certainly evidence to the contrary.

Look no further than the reaction to Donald Trump’s tariff proposals from Iowans whose livelihoods depend on the agriculture sector.

Maybe the more accurate comment would be “What reaction?”

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If you can't be yourself, be Tim Walz or Dave Heaton

Charles Bruner was a state legislator from 1978 through 1990 and ran his campaigns as an advocate for children and families, turning his Senate district blue after two decades of Republican representation. More resources on the Kamala Harris care agenda for children are available on the Harris for Kids website.

The image above is a refrigerator magnet I created for this election. I served in the Iowa legislature from 1978 to 1990, which were “kinder and gentler” times.

Molly Ivins has said that “if the state legislature didn’t have its share of fools, it wouldn’t be a truly representative body.” Yet she also said that democracy works because there are enough decent people elected who take the time to listen and learn and act diligently to try to do what is in the public interest. Moreover, they earn the respect of their less-diligent peers and influence them. They may not always be right, but they are right-thinking and open enough to prevail.

One of the most heartening things I have heard throughout this election season is Tim Walz’s interview with Jon Stewart on the Daily Show. It’s worth watching in full.

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Don't confuse inflation with the economy

Marty Ryan previously published a version of this essay in the November 2024 issue of the Prairie Progressive.

Campaign strategist Jim Carville coined the phrase “[It’s] the economy, stupid” back in 1992 when he worked on Bill Clinton’s first presidential campaign. That phrase “was directed at the campaign’s workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on.”

Evidently, the intent, if not the quote, has come back to the 2024 campaign. U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has been insisting in one of her campaign’s television commercials that “we gotta bring these prices down.” Good luck!

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"Thank you"—a reminder to show your support for Kamala Harris

Bernie Scolaro is a retired school counselor, a past president of the Sioux City Education Association, and former Sioux City school board member.

I would park around the corner and wait until there was no traffic, no sign of people, before getting out and swiftly entering the bar in Sioux City, Iowa. It was the 1980s, and entering and leaving Three Cheers (the only gay bar in town) without being noticed was always a challenge. I felt the stigma of having to hide who I was, deny myself, not knowing who would approve or disapprove, or what the backlash might be if I were exposed.

At some point in my life, I came to a crossroads. I realized not only that I had to be true to myself, but also that I needed to let others know and accept me. While took too long, I eventually realized that I had another responsibility as well: to show others it’s okay if you are gay and love whom you love. I realized that being open helped others accept themselves and/or their family members who were struggling with their identity.

Earlier this week, I went to dinner. I was wearing RAYGUN’s “Iowa for Kamala” t-shirt while my partner wore RAYGUN’s “Mind your own damn business” t-shirt. 

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Iowans will vote on two constitutional amendments this November

Linda Schreiber is a member of the League of Women Voters of Johnson County.

Amending the Iowa Constitution is a long process. State lawmakers must approve identical language in two consecutive separately elected legislatures before a proposed amendment goes on a statewide ballot.

This November, in addition to electing candidates for federal, state, and county offices, Iowans will consider two proposed state constitutional amendments: on Voting Age and Citizenship, and on Gubernatorial Succession.

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Walks filled with wonder

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

If you’ve had the privilege of walking with a four-year-old, you’ll understand what pure wonder looks like. Their eyes dilate as they purse their lips. They touch the newfound object with loving care.  They stare for what seems like hours. 

My four-year-old companion becomes a miniature investigative reporter, with machine gun questions. “Why is the sky blue?” “What kind of bug is that?” “How do birds fly?” “Why does that cloud look like my dog?” 

It’s like being questioned by tiny Bob Woodward.

It’s exhilarating and enlightening.

But like some politicians, you’re relieved when you look around and find no fact checker.

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My Republican friends know

Bill Bumgarner is a retired former health care executive from northwest Iowa who worked
in hospital management for 41 years, predominantly in the state of Iowa.

I live in a region of Iowa where about 68 percent of voters cast their ballot for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

Naturally, that overwhelming majority included many of my friends, neighbors, and those with whom I’ve joined to help enhance our community. I like and respect these people for reasons that have nothing to do with electoral politics. 

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How Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May has decided big cases

Voters will decide in November whether to let Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May serve in that role for another eight years.

Justice May is heavily favored to keep his job. There is no organized statewide campaign against him, comparable to the well-funded efforts to oust Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010 and 2012. His two colleagues who were up for retention in 2022 each received about 67 percent “yes” votes.

However, many reproductive rights advocates have circulated emails or social media posts calling on Iowans to vote against the newest justice, because in June he joined the 4-3 majority opinion that allowed the state to enforce a near-total abortion ban. Abortion is a more salient issue in this year’s election than it was two years ago.

It can be difficult for voters to find detailed information about the judges on the ballot. This post provides context on how Justice May has approached Iowa Supreme Court cases in several areas of the law. Bleeding Heartland previously covered the highest- and lowest-rated Iowa Court of Appeals and District Court judges who are up for retention this year.

If Justice May receives more “no” than “yes” votes—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—his tenure on the court will end in December. The State Judicial Nominating Commission would interview candidates for the vacancy and send three finalists to Governor Kim Reynolds for her consideration. Notably, nine of the seventeen commission members are themselves Reynolds appointees, so conservatives would likely end up on the short list of Supreme Court nominees.

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My case against Iowa's proposed gubernatorial succession amendment

Bill Brauch is a retired Iowa lawyer. He served as an Assistant Iowa Attorney General from 1987 to 2015, and was Director of the Consumer Protection Division of the Attorney General’s office from 1995 until 2015. He is a 1987 graduate, with distinction, of the University of Iowa College of Law. He is presently chair of the Polk County Democrats. 

An Iowa constitutional amendment on the November ballot would insert in the state constitution a process for filling a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor. Under the amendment, if the governor dies, resigns, or is removed from office, the lieutenant governor would assume the office of governor for the remainder of the term, thereby creating a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor, which the new governor could fill by appointment.

While Iowa currently has a vacancy in that office following the resignation of Lieutenant Governor Adam Gregg, the governor already has the power to appoint Gregg’s successor. This proposed amendment was driven by what happened in 2017 when Governor Terry Branstad was confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to China, and the powers of the governor devolved onto Kim Reynolds. 

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How Lanon Baccam is seeking a restoration of Iowa at its best

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

There’s not supposed to be any crying in politics.

Only sometimes there is. My own tears, even.

Iowa Democratic Congressional candidate Lanon Baccam, born in Mount Pleasant and raised by his immigrant parents, spent part of a summer speech talking about the Iowa of our youth when this state soared. Immigrants and blended families were embraced. Vision and kindness and big-heartedness prevailed in the state under Governor Robert Ray as we absorbed abandoned kids and refugees fleeing violence.

At one point Baccam motioned to me in the audience.

“I’m looking at Doug Burns right now, because his family looks like my family,” Baccam said during a speech to the Iowa Farmers Union in Elkhart, rural Polk County.

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Iowa absentee ballot numbers in the 2024 general election

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I will post Iowa’s latest absentee ballot numbers, statewide and for each Congressional district, every weekday, based on figures released by the Iowa Secretary of State’s office. That office also publishes daily absentee ballot totals by county, state House district, and state Senate district.

You can compare this year’s numbers to daily charts from the last six election cycles by clicking through to Bleeding Heartland’s archive of absentee ballot totals from 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012. But use caution when comparing, because Iowa’s early voting window lasted for 40 days through 2016, and was 29 days for the 2018 and 2020 elections. Only the most recent midterm also used the 20-day window currently in effect.

Also, keep in mind that this year’s early voting numbers will certainly be much lower than in 2020, when a majority of Iowans who participated cast a ballot before election day. Voting by mail skyrocketed during the last presidential election cycle, because the COVID-19 pandemic discouraged many from voting in person, and the Secretary of State’s office sent absentee ballot request forms to all registered Iowa voters. Republican legislators and Governor Kim Reynolds subsequently prohibited county auditors and the secretary of state from sending absentee ballot request forms to any voter who had not requested one.

The Secretary of State’s office now breaks down ballots received by voting method: mail, in person at a county office, in person at a satellite location, through a drop box, at a health care facility, or by email or fax (options for military or overseas voters). I’m keeping it simple with one table each day for ballots voters in each Congressional district have requested, and one table for ballots county auditors have received. After the election, I will write about how many Iowans used the various early voting options, and the partisan split for each.

In recent years, Iowa Democrats have been far more likely than Republicans to cast early ballots. However, the Iowa GOP has invested in a big early voting push this year. So far, Republicans are not far behind in early ballots requested and received in the first, second, and third Congressional districts. The GOP leads in early voting in the fourth district, where the party has a massive voter registration advantage.

Remember, though: the tables below show how many Iowans of various partisan affiliations have voted early. That doesn’t mean they all voted a straight party ticket.

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Highest and lowest-rated judges on Iowa's 2024 ballot

Iowans will decide this November whether to allow one Iowa Supreme Court justice, four Iowa Court of Appeals judges, and 64 Iowa District Court judges to remain on the bench. Since our state adopted the current judicial selection system in 1962, each judge must periodically go on the ballot—every eight years for Iowa Supreme Court justices, every six years for those serving on other courts.

Iowa voters have retained almost all judges over the past six decades. But any jurist who receives more “no” than “yes” votes in November—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—will be out of a job. Governor Kim Reynolds would fill any vacancies in early 2025, after receiving a list of finalists from the State Judicial Nominating Commission or its district-level counterpart.

While some people routinely approve or reject every judge up for retention as a matter of principle, voters who want to make informed choices often find it difficult to learn anything about the judges listed on the back of the ballot.

This post highlights the appeals and district court judges who received the highest and lowest ratings in the 2024 Judicial Performance Review, the main public source of information about Iowa’s judges. I will also explain why I plan to vote against retaining a member of the Iowa Court of Appeals and a district associate judge in Polk County.

A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland article will analyze how Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May has decided high-profile cases since Reynolds appointed him in July 2022.

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What matters most in the 2024 election

Herb Strentz was dean of the Drake School of Journalism from 1975 to 1988 and professor there until retirement in 2004. He was executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council from its founding in 1976 to 2000.

To illustrate problems with the news coverage of the 2024 presidential campaign, this essay begins with a comparison and ends with a contrast.

First, the comparison:

Much of the news coverage of this year’s presidential race can be likened to stewards on the Titanic arranging the deck chairs in 1912 so passengers could get a better view of icebergs.

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