Edward A. Wasserman is a 52-year resident of Iowa and a professor of Psychological and Brain Sciences at The University of Iowa. The views expressed in his piece are his own and do not in any way reflect those of his employer.

Many concerned citizens are asking themselves this pressing question: How have we come to this point in U.S. history where we are reversing prior progress in civil rights, dismantling vital federal agencies, attacking esteemed universities and their faculty, and embracing an imperial presidency? In fact, these events haven’t suddenly and inexplicably arisen. There are many times across several decades—and vivid personal proclamations—that help explain the origin and evolution of these unsettling trends.

Senator Joni Ernst shouldn’t be in this position.

Given Iowans’ tendency to re-elect incumbents and the state’s rightward drift this past decade, she should be running ten points ahead.

Instead, Iowa’s Senate race is universally seen as a toss-up. Ernst has led in only two polls released since the June primary. Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield has led in fourteen polls during the same period.

Not all of Ernst’s political problems are her own creation. The COVID-19 pandemic and President Donald Trump’s disastrous leadership have put at risk several GOP-held seats that once seemed safe.

But Ernst could have set herself up better to survive a tough environment for her party. Her most important strategic error was not following the example Chuck Grassley set as a 40-something first-term senator.