As Bill Nye the Science Guy used to say, consider the following:
How would it affect the national race for the nomination were we to have three different winners in the big three early contests?
Consider the following scenario. In the Iowa caucus, John Edwards wins a squeaker of a contest, coming in first over Clinton and Obama–who pull down second and third respectively. The win is a major boost to the Edwards campaign, which gets a boon of positive press coverage and a donor rush. While seen as somewhat of a loss for the Clinton campaign, the press deems Obama the biggest loser of the night for his lackluster third place finish.
Iowa: Edwards
Going into New Hampshire, Edwards sees a small bump of supporters, a large amount of who are Obama defectors and fence sitters. It's not enough to put Edwards up over Obama, but it's enough to give the lead solidly to Clinton. On primary night, it's Clinton who wins a close contest, with Obama second and Edwards a very close third.
New Hampshire: Clinton
Post New Hampshire, Clinton wins contests in Nevada and Michigan–but neither is the convincing victory the campaign needs and both are largely ignored by the media.
The media and the campaigns place a huge emphasis on South Carolina, looking to crown a winner before Super Tuesday. Obama has spent most of his time post-New Hampshire campaigning in South Carolina, including a few high profile events with Oprah. Edwards has also drawn on resources in his home state of North Carolina and spent a lot of time in the state, while Hillary has been in Nevada. When all is said and done, Obama wins a decisive victory, with Edwards coming in second and Clinton a close third.
South Carolina: Obama
Thus going into Florida and Super Tuesday it's a three way race. Clinton may have the lead on delegates, but that could all change. Not only have the big three early contests all gone to different candidates…but each has come in first once, second once, and last once.
Nomination: ???
Do you think such a scenario is possible? How would it affect the national race to have the big three early contests (Iowa, NH and SC) go to three different candidates? By having three viable, energized candidates going into Super Tuesday could the stage be set for a convention fight the likes of which we haven't seen for decades? What do you think?
Please bear in mind that this is just a imaginary scenario, not a prediction.
5 Comments
I think that Obama will not win SC
if he doesn’t win either IA or NH.
Also, I think that if Edwards wins IA, he will finish at least second in NH, ahead of whoever finishes third in IA.
But if your scenario is correct, then it would be a real scramble going into Super Tuesday on February 5.
desmoinesdem Sat 29 Dec 4:08 PM
Yes, this is an unlikely scenario
I agree with Desmoinesdem. If Obama can’t win either IA or NH, I doubt he could win SC. But looking at NH polls, I think it is possible that Obama wins there even if he gets beat my Hillary here. If he beats Hillary in IA, I think there is a good chance he runs the table in NH and SC. But, I’m not convinced that Hillary is gone even if Obama beats her in all three, especially if it’s pretty close. Hillary may still end up dominating Feb. 5.
I’m fairly confident that there is no scenario for Edwards to win. I’m thinking IA victory would only give him some extra time. It is pretty clear that Edwards is done if he does not win IA. And the longer Edwards stays in the race, the better for Hillary. The sooner this becomes a two-way battle between Hillary and Obama, the better for Obama.
This couldn’t really be more exciting for sad political junkies like us. There are so many ways this can play out. For Iowa, I’m not even making any predictions at this point of time. The only thing I’m starting to feel more comfortable with is that I don’t think any of the 2nd tier candidates will beat any of the top 3. I’m thinking we should see more upward mobility in polls at this point for anyone to pull a big upset. But, if anyone were to do it, I’m thinking it would be Biden.
rf Sat 29 Dec 5:20 PM
I think Obama needs to beat Hillary here
to win NH. He could possibly win NH if he loses IA to Edwards, though.
RF, Edwards has been closing the gap in NH and is in the high teens in most polls (one poll had him at 20 percent). If he pulls off a clear victory here, that should be good for a win or a close second in NH. Also, the Nevada unions will come off the fence, and he could easily take that state.
I agree with you that the second-tier candidates are too far back to finish in the top three. I’ve been working on a diary about them and trying to figure out whether Biden or Richardson will take fourth place. I can argue that either way. Biden seems to be getting more late deciders, but Richardson went into the final month with twice as many supporters.
desmoinesdem Sat 29 Dec 5:41 PM
Yes, Obama NH victory not very likely
if he loses to Hillary here in IA. But I think it is possible. I’m thinking a scenario of likely Hillary nomination (after she beats Obama in IA) and presidency could turn NH independents to Obama in droves. But if Edwards wins IA (with Hillary 2nd and Obama 3rd), this scenario seems very unlikely. McCain’s surge in NH also hurts Obama.
I will give you that a somewhat decisive victory for Edwards in IA could be a great unknown. Maybe he would get a significant bounce in NH and beyond. Something he’s obviously banking on – undestandably after his 2004 experience. It is entirely possible, but I still doubt it. I’m thinking the biggest obstacle to that is Obama’s money pile and ability to continue until Feb. 5 no matter what. From the ABH perspective that is not a good thing, though.
rf Sat 29 Dec 6:19 PM
Latest poll suggests Hillary could get 3rd place.
Could Hillary Clinton get 3rd place in Iowa? The final pre-caucus poll by the Des Moines Register suggests as much…
Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register’s last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.
The telephone survey of 800 likely Democratic caucusgoers was taken Dec. 27-30. Interestingly enough, support for Edwards rose significantly — by 3% — for those sampled in Dec. 27-28 versus those polled Dec. 29-30, while Clinton’s numbers have declined by 4% in that time period.
If this is an actual trend, as opposed to a statistical variance, then Hillary Clinton might find herself with a very disappointing 3rd place finish in Iowa… something likely to significantly impact her results going into the other primaries.
Interestingly enough, when respondents were asked which candidate best matched their core principles, 28% said Barack Obama, 25% said John Edwards, and 21% said Hillary Clinton.
Clinton campaign chief strategist Mark Penn — the guy who made a point of referring to Obama’s teenage cocaine use, even after Hillary’s campaign promised to stop bringing it up — tried to spin this bad news in a pretty negative way.
“The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race. . . So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.” Indeed. Mark Penn is annoyed that The Register is predicting that Iowans feel that this is a very important election, and that they are more motivated to caucus this time around. He’s annoyed that the Register aren’t ignoring the opinions of a higher percentage of Iowans, by writing them off as not being “likely voters”.
He is counting on independent-minded Iowans — young voters, first-time voters, disillusioned voters, voters tired of an unending, unaccountable conflict in Iraq, tired of sacrificing their rights and freedoms, tired of politics as usual — *NOT* to vote, because he believes that as long as enough people *DON”T* show up to causus, Hillary Clinton could win.
He’s right. This is a close race, and your participation on caucus night could make all the difference.
Go vote!
markkraft Tue 1 Jan 10:54 PM