A lot has changed since I offered my last predictions on who the next vice president. For starters, both parties are fairly certain of who their nominees will be. Alliances have shifted; political fortunes have risen and fallen. We've seen some early signs of what the general election will bring. Therefore, there's no reason not to start talking vice-presidents. In Part I I'll take a look at possible Obama vice-presidental picks, and in the interest of fairness, I'll look at some McCain picks in Part II. The links are to some YouTube videos that illustrate the person's personality and style.

 

Heavyweight contenders: 

VA Sen Jim Webb: There's a lot of buzz surrounding Sen. Webb right now, and for good reason. He brings a lot to the table, first and foremost of which is deep military and government experience as a Vietnam vet and fmr Sec. of the Navy. He's a fresh face, from a swing state, and a macho Democrat who personifies change. Plus, what better for a candidate who looks to heal the racial divide than a Vietnam veteran who is happily married to a Vietnamese-American?

BUT, Webb does have a few black eyes. He is often gruff, and could have the possibility of making gaffes on the trail. He also has been married three times and may have skeletons in his closet. Plus, considering a sitting senator hasn't won the presidency since Kennedy–should we run a Senator/Senator ticket?

VA Gov. Tim Kaine: Gov. Kaine was one of the first public officials to jump on the Obama bandwagon…before there was a bandwagon. He's a popular and successful governor of a southern swing state to boot. On top of that, he has a sterling record: missionary in Honduras, graduate of Harvard Law, lawyer specializing in cases of people denied housing based on race or disability and crime-busting mayor and governor who got the state through the Virginia Tech tragedy. On paper, he's perfect.

BUT, he's only been governor for two years, bringing up the experience question. Also, he carries little name recognition outside of Virginia. Further, he's only passable on the stump–not a great orator.

NM Gov. Bill Richardson: Recent convert to the Obama camp, Gov. Richardson has long been touted as vice-president to whoever the nominee would turn out to be. To make a long story short, he's got experience out the wazoo. He's also Latino, offering the potential to make a historic candidacy even more historic. He's also well-known around the country, can be firebreather on the stump and a generally good-humored person with a very fashionable beard.

BUT, a lot of the country has an opinion of him as a political sycophant (as seen best on a pre-Iowa SNL skit). He's also known to make gaffes and is often hit-or-miss when he speaks. Also, it remains to be seen if a Richardson veep run would alienate the Clinton camp, still sore over his defection.

Flyweights and Longshots:

NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg: After a lunch meeting between Mayor Bloomberg and Sen. Obama earlier this month, speculation has been swirling that Obama might reach across the aisle for his veep pick. Bloomberg is a centrist, with many positions in line with Obama's, but some that are not. While he may draw some independents to the ticket, he may drive out some liberals who would see this as a move to the center. While he would bring business experience to the ticket, that's the only experience he brings. Not to mention that New York is already a safe state for Dems. He's also an awkward personality, not exactly the beaming Rolling Stone cover guy that Obama is.

Fmr. NC Sen John Edwards: A few months ago, John Edwards looked like a perfect fit for Obama. He represented change, in the form of a powerful populism that would play well in a recession. He's friendly, genial, handsome and well-known. But then came Texas and Ohio. Obama was in trouble, and an Edwards endorsement and stump circuit could have changed the game…Edwards did nothing. Now, here we have Pennsylvania on Apr. 22, and North Carolina and West Virginia on May 6th and 13th. All could be Hillary routs…and Sen. Edwards could change that. Still he does nothing. My opinion here is that, while Edwards is still a catch, it usually requires at least a little quid pro quo to get the nod.

Fmr. Vice-President Al Gore: This would be many people's dream ticket. Imagine the fresh-faced Obama at the helm, with the capable and experienced Gore second-in-command–it's a powerful image. However, Al Gore has a lot going for him in his own right, and has already been vice-president. It is doubtful he would want to return to that office, but could potentially if it was in the best interests of the party. It's also historically unprecedented, although constutionally legal. Plus, although Gore has dramatically re-invented himself since 2000, does he really personify “change”?

As always, I'm very interested in your comments and predictions!