Election prediction contest results thread

Although the Secretary of State’s Office won’t post the final numbers until after the county canvasses, we know enough to determine who prevailed in Bleeding Heartland’s primary election prediction contest.

Winners for each of the ten questions get credit after the jump.

I’m using the Associated Press numbers for the Iowa primaries to judge who was closest to being right about each race.

1. How many votes will be cast in the Republican primary for Iowa governor? Adding the totals for Branstad, Vander Plaats and Roberts brings you to 226,965. There were surely also some write-ins, but not enough to affect the outcome here. I had the highest guess with 210,000.

2. What percentages of the vote will Terry Branstad, Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts receive in the Republican primary for governor? Unofficial results: TB 50, BVP 41, RR 9. ModerateIADem was the closest by far (and closer than any of the three pollsters who polled the race), guessing TB 53, BVP 39, RR 8.

3. What percentages of the vote will Roxanne Conlin, Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen receive in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate? RC 78, BK 13, TF 9. American007 was closest to being right about Conlin’s vote share, guessing 80 percent. American007 had Fiegen beating Krause for second, though. I wasn’t far off about them, guessing Krause 14, Fiegen 11.

4. What percentages of the vote will Rob Gettemy, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Steve Rathje and Chris Reed receive in the Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district? MMM 51, SR 22, CR 14, RG 13. I’m not giving anyone the win on this question, because we were all so far off. No one predicted that Miller-Meeks would win outright; in fact, no one predicted that any candidate would exceed 35 percent here. While several of us predicted that she would have a plurality, we all thought five points or fewer would separate her from Gettemy.

5. Who will be the top four candidates in the Republican primary in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and what percentages of the vote will they receive? Zaun 42, Gibbons 28, Funk 22, Rees 4. American007 was the closest to Zaun’s share, guessing 43 (honorable mention to ModerateIADem for putting Zaun at 40). MrScarletW had Gibbons at 29, so he wins that piece of the answer, and I had Funk at 21.

6. What percentages of the vote will Mike Denklau and Matt Campbell receive in the Democratic primary in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district? Campbell 76, Denklau 24. No one predicted such a lopsided result here, but ModerateIADem was closest, guessing that Campbell would win with 57 percent.

7. What percentages of the vote will Matt Schultz, George Eichhorn and Chris Sanger receive in the Republican primary for secretary of state? MS 47, GE 27, CS 26. We all predicted that Schultz would win, but most of us thought he’d be over 50 percent. In contrast, ddkrutsinger was almost right on the money, guessing 48 percent for Schultz. No one had a clue Sanger would finish so close behind Eichhorn, but MrScarletW had the best guess about those two candidates, predicting 30 percent for Eichhorn and 19 percent for Sanger. I cannot get over that a guy who raised only a few hundred dollars from bake sales got almost as many votes as Eichhorn, a political veteran who was by far the most qualified GOP candidate in this race.

8. What percentages of the vote will Dave Jamison and Jim Heavens receive in the Republican primary for state treasurer? DJ 67, JH 33. We all predicted Jamison would win this comfortably, but ModerateIADem guessed closest to the real margin of victory: Jamison 65, Heavens 35.

9. What percentages of the vote will State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad and challenger Clair Rudison receive in the Democratic primary for Iowa House district 66? Ako 75, Rudison 25. We all correctly predicted that Ako would win big, but again ModerateIADem produced the best guess: Ako 70, Rudison 30.

10. What percentages of the vote will Tom Shaw, Stephen Richards and Alissa Wagner receive in the Republican primary for Iowa House district 8? Shaw 55, Richards 39, Wagner 6. Several of us guessed the tea party man would win the day, but again ModerateIADem was the closest: Shaw 65, Richards 30, Wagner 5.  

Everyone won at least one part of one question, but there can be no doubt that ModerateIADem is the newly crowned Bleeding Heartland election prediction champion. No prize will be awarded, but enjoy your bragging rights, ModerateIADem!

Stay tuned for the next round in October…

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