Does anyone still doubt that Governor Terry Branstad plans to run for a sixth term next year? Those not convinced should read Mike Wiser’s report on the full-time staffer just hired by Branstad’s re-election campaign.

Meanwhile, Democratic State Senator Jack Hatch dropped a couple of hints lately about a possible run for governor.

Branstad’s re-election campaign raised more than a million dollars last year and had $1,461,929.66 cash on hand as of January. Wiser reported last week that Phil Valenziano is now working full-time for Branstad’s re-election effort. Valenziano was a field organizer for Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign, later worked in the Iowa GOP’s Cedar Rapids office, clerked for State Representative Chip Baltimore during the 2011 Iowa legislative session, and was state director for Romney’s campaign in New Hampshire last year. He told Wiser that he will focus on “grassroots organizing” as well as handling summer parades and other events for the Branstad-Reynolds campaign.

The governor’s communications director Tim Albrecht told Wiser that hiring staff is not a formal campaign announcement, but let’s be serious. At the end of next year, Branstad will be the third longest serving governor in U.S. history. Winning and completing a sixth term would make him our country’s longest-serving governor. CORRECTION: He’s already the second-longest serving governor if you count George Clinton, who governed New York before and after the Constitution was ratified. The Smart Politics blog already gives Branstad the top spot, excluding Clinton’s leadership before statehood. Barring some unknown major health problem, I can’t imagine any scenario in which Branstad retires next year.

Up to now, Bob Krause has been the only Democrat to confirm that he is thinking about running against Branstad next year.

State Senator Jack Hatch has been rumored to be considering the race as well. He’s up for re-election next year in Senate district 33, covering neighborhoods in central Des Moines and part of the south side. But the Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs and Jason Noble reported on May 9,

Late last month, however, Hatch closed down the “Neighbors for Hatch” campaign committee that has served his state Senate runs and opened in its place a brand new committee, records from the Iowa Ethics & Campaign Disclosure Board show.

It’s got the same name, the same treasurer, the same chairperson and even the same $7,935.48 in cash on hand. The difference? This new committee is specifically designated for a gubernatorial race.

Reached by phone on Friday, Hatch confirmed the committee’s creation, but said it still represented only “an acknowledgment that I’m thinking about it.”

He promised a full statement on the matter once the legislative session ends.

As chair of the Iowa Senate health and human services budget subcommittee, Hatch is a key negotiator for Democrats on the health and human services budget and the Medicaid expansion. It’s understandable that he is focused on legislative work right now.

Still if he weren’t planning to run for governor, would this Polk County senator be a featured speaker at the Johnson County Democrats’ Hall of Fame event on May 11? John Deeth was there:

Hatch acknowledged that recently leaked news that he’d formed an exploratory committee for governor, and he pledges to stand on principle. “For the first time in 8 years, we’ll have a governor who won’t make decisions based on polls,” he said, in an implied shot at Chet Culver. “Democrats win when we vote with our heart.”

Health care, now stalled in the legislature, has been Hatch’s signature issue. “Iowa has highest percentage of children with health insurance in the country,” but calling the Republican proposal “the most cynical legislation I’ve ever seen. It would cost more money and provide less care.”

Here’s the link to the new Neighbors for Hatch committee. Like any other potential Democratic candidate for governor, Hatch would start out with lower name recognition and a much lower bank balance than Branstad. (I am discounting the Des Moines Register’s ongoing speculation that Tom Vilsack might run for governor, because I see little sign he’s seriously thinking about running.)

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread. Several other Democratic senators are reportedly thinking about the campaign, including Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, Senate President Pam Jochum, and Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Rob Hogg.

UPDATE: A few weeks ago, the Democratic Governors Association asserted that Branstad is vulnerable. From Mike Wiser’s report:

Branstad, according to the poll, is in the middle with a 45 percent favorability rating, not bad, but not at the magic 50 percent or higher mark.

The Democratic Governors Association poll shows Branstad would lose to a generic Democrat in the race. Association spokesman Danny Kanner, however, would not go into details on the numbers.

“It shows he’s vulnerable,” said Tyler Olson, a state representative from Cedar Rapids and chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. “Terry Branstad has 1980’s-style economic development policies and philosophies, that just doesn’t cut it today.” […]

Kanner thinks Branstad is vulnerable on his opposition to Medicaid expansion and on the millions in tax breaks the administration offered an Egyptian-based conglomerate to build a fertilizer plant in Lee County.

Democratic Governors Association officials were in Iowa in the last month, which is when its poll was conducted. Kanner said the association also has had conversations with potential Democratic challengers, although he wouldn’t go far as saying the group is trying to recruit any particular individual.

“We consider this a winnable seat in the 2013-2014 cycle,” Kanner said. “It’s one of the reasons we’ve been on the ground in Iowa this far in advance.”

I would like to see a lot more details about that poll. I’m always suspicious when campaigns or political entities release partial numbers but not the full results, including questionnaire and cross-tabs.

It’s too bad that media budget cuts have deprived us of frequent public polling during Branstad’s term. When Chet Culver was governor, the Des Moines Register did more Iowa polls each year, and Survey USA measured approval ratings for Iowa’s top politicians every month. It was easier to get a sense of the trends in Culver’s approval rating.

From where I’m sitting, Branstad goes into next year’s election strongly favored. The last couple of surveys by Public Policy Polling suggested his approval rating improved from 2011 to 2012. He will take credit for Iowa’s low unemployment rate, even though Iowa had one of the country’s lowest unemployment rates throughout the Great Recession. He will take credit for the large state budget surplus, even though the last budget approved by a Democratic legislature and signed by Culver also ended in surplus. He will use creative accounting to claim that he has met his job creation goals, despite the facts about job growth in Iowa. If the 2010 election coverage is any guide, the mainstream media will not scrutinize Branstad’s serial lies and distortions.