Enter Bleeding Heartland's 2018 general election prediction contest

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I encourage readers to post their general election predictions as comments in this thread before 7 am on Tuesday, November 6. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on social media will not be considered. Please contact me if you want to participate and need to create a Bleeding Heartland account.

Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. You can change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the Tuesday morning deadline.

No money’s at stake, just bragging rights like those most recently claimed by Bleeding Heartland user rf for 2016 general election predictions and David Osterberg for having the best guesses about this year’s primary elections.

Libertarian and/or independent candidates are on the ballot for many races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question. You can’t win if you don’t play.

1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2018 general election? For reference, 1,125,386 Iowans voted in the 2010 general election, and 1,135,138 Iowans voted in the 2014 general election.

2. What percentage of the vote will candidates for governor Kim Reynolds and Fred Hubbell receive? (Keep in mind that Libertarian Jake Porter and independent Gary Siegwarth will also appear on the ballot.)

3. What percentage of the vote will Rod Blum and Abby Finkenauer receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district? (Libertarian Troy Hageman will also appear on the ballot.)

4. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Christopher Peters receive in IA-02? (Libertarian Mark David Strauss and independent Daniel Clark will also appear on the ballot.)

5. What percentage of the vote will David Young and Cindy Axne receive in IA-03? (Libertarian Bryan Jack Holder and three other candidates will also appear on the ballot.)

6. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and J.D. Scholten receive in IA-04? (Libertarian Charles Aldrich and independent Edward Peterson will also appear on the ballot.)

7. What percentage of the vote will Paul Pate and Deidre DeJear receive in the Iowa secretary of state race? (Libertarian Jules Ofenbakh will also appear on the ballot.)

8. What percentage of the vote will Tom Miller and Marco Battaglia (Libertarian) receive in the Iowa attorney general race? (Republicans are not fielding a candidate.)

9. What percentage of the vote will Mike Naig and Tim Gannon receive in the Iowa secretary of agriculture race? (Libertarian Rick Stewart will also appear on the ballot.)

10. What percentage of the vote will Mary Mosiman and Rob Sand receive in the Iowa state auditor race? (Libertarian Fred Perryman will also appear on the ballot.)

11. What percentage of the vote will Michael Fitzgerald and Jeremy Davis receive in the state treasurer race? (Libertarian Timothy Hird will also appear on the ballot.)

12. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 59 Republicans and 41 Democrats. All 100 state House seats are on the ballot.

13. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans hold in the Iowa Senate after this election? Currently there are 29 Republicans, 20 Democrats, and one independent who is retiring. Only half of the state Senate seats are on the ballot.

14. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

15. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

16. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?

17. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2019? (435 total) Currently there are 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and seven vacant seats.

18. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2019? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats, including the two independents who caucus with them.

  • Scoring

    How is it scored? Is there a winner for each category or overall?

    Is it total amount off by rep% plus total amount off by dem% and then lowest score wins?

  • 2018 General Elections Contest

    Number of Iowans who cast ballots: 1, 573, 484. Percentages for Governor- Kim R: 40%, Fred H: 43%, Jake P: 4%, & Gary S: 2%. Congressional District 1 Percentages- Rod B: 40%, Abby F: 42%, & Troy H: 3%. Congressional District 2 Percentages- Dave L: 45%, Chris P: 41%, Mark David: 3%, & Daniel C: 1%. Congressional District 3 Percentages- David Young: 40%, Cindy Axne: 43%, Brian Holder: 4%, the other 3 contenders will combine a total of 1%. Congressional District 4 Percentages- JD Scholten: 42%, Steve King:41%, Charles A: 2%, & Edward P: 1%. Secretary of State Percentages- Paul Pate: 40%, Deidre DeJear: 42%, & Jules O: 2%. Iowa Attorney General Percentages- Tom Miller: 43% & Marco B: 38%. Secretary of Agriculture Percentages- Mike Naig: 41%, Tim Gannon: 42%, & Rick Stewart: 2%. State Auditor Percentages- Mary M: 41%, Rob Sand: 43%, & Fred P: 1%. State Treasurer Percentages- Mike F: 43%, Jeremy Davis: 41%, & Tim H: 2%. Iowa Democratic House Seats Total: 57. Iowa Republican House Seats Total: 43. Iowa Democratic Senate Seats Total: 27. Iowa Republican Senate Seats Total: 23. Closest Congressional Race: Congressional District 3. US Democratic House Seats Total: 286. US Republican House Seats Total: 149. US Democratic Senate Seats Total: 65. US Republican Senate Seats Total: 35. BUT there will be a catch: according to a rumor, all states will turn Blue EXCEPT Iowa until shortly after the beginning of the year (sometime close to Spring 2019) FYI: it’s just a rumor. Here shortly there will be a mass exodus of Republicans. Which then Democrats will win all over the US until the 2020 elections. After that, there’s a chance that all US states will be Red (not because of election hacking, but because of people tired of Democrats winning).

    • thank you for entering!

      A lot of your guesses add up to way below 100 percent for the various races. If you want to amend your prediction, you can always post another comment before Tuesday morning.

  • 2018

    1. 1,207,386
    2. 48% Hubbell, 47% Reynolds, 4% Porter, 1% Siegwarth
    3. 55% Finkenauer 43% Blum 2% Hageman
    4. 53% Loebsack 42% Peters 3% Strauss 2% Clark
    5. 47% Axne 45% Young 4% Holder 4% others
    6. 50% King 47% Scholten 2% Aldrich 1% Peterson
    7. 51% DeJear 49% Pate
    8. 75% Miller 25% Battaglia
    9. 50.5% Naig 49.5% Gannon
    10. 53% Sand 47% Moisman
    11. 63% Fitzgerald 37% Davis
    12. 54 democrats 46 republicans
    13. 27 republican 23 Democrats
    14. 3rd congressional district
    15. Senate District 41
    16. Florida senate
    17. 240 democrats, 195 republicans
    18. 54 republicans, 46 democrats

    • We're close

      I’m surprised how close we are! I pretty much guessed on the Fitzgerald race. It’s hard to guess how much of the undervote will go to Marco. I’m intrigued by your federal predictions. You seem to be more optimistic about the House than I am and more pessimistic about the Senate. It will be fun to see who is closer!

      • We certainly are close

        The vast majority of the GOP ticket swung through my hometown this past week and Jeremy Davis was there to speak. If I get’s more than 40% I will be shocked. Definition of an empty shirt. I’m very bullish about the house- not so much on the senate, based on the map and the polls that have come out.

  • I will only do the House races and the Senate

    1.3071,101
    45% Hubbell, 50% Reynolds, 4% Porter, 1% Siegwarth
    3. 53% Finkenauer 45% Blum 2% Hageman
    4. 55% Loebsack 44% Peters 3% Strauss 2% Clark
    5. 48% Axne 47% Young 2% Holder 3% others
    6. 52% King 47% Scholten 1% Aldrich 1% Peterson
    16, Missouri Senate
    17. 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans
    18. 51 GOP, 49 Democrats

  • Here we go...

    I was going to wait until Monday and play around with numbers, but here we go…

    1. 1,159,943
    2. 49.15% Hubbell – 44.35% Reynolds
    3. 50.49% Finkenauer – 46.01% Blum
    4. 53.58% Loebsack – 42.92% Peters
    5. 45.97% Axne – 45.70% Young
    6. 55.81% King – 39.69% Scholten
    7. 52.15% DeJear – 47.85% Pate
    8. 83% Miller – 17% Marco
    9. 49.35% Naig – 44.15% Gannon
    10. 56% DeJear – 44% Pate
    11. 58.15% Fitzgerald – 35.35% Davis
    12. Iowa House: 52 Republicans – 48 Democrats.
    13. Iowa Senate: 27 Republicans – 23 Democrats (Dems pick up 4, but reps steal 1 and gain the I seat…I think this would be more promising if ALL the seats were up!)
    14. IA-3, for sure.
    15. HD44. If that goes blue, I think the Dems could take the House.
    16. Claire McCaskill.
    17. 229 Dem – 206 Rep
    18. 51 Rep – 49 Dem, but if I could say 51.5-48.5 to hedge my bets, I would.

    • Correction

      #10 is supposed to reflect Rob Sand’s victory. Deidre DeJear’s victory is already reflected. In #7. The numbers are good. It’s just the names in #10 that need updated.

  • Cant edit...seeing if this is easier to read than my last comment. Sorry.

    1. 1,159,943

    2. 49.15% Hubbell – 44.35% Reynolds

    3. 50.49% Finkenauer – 46.01% Blum

    4. 53.58% Loebsack – 42.92% Peters

    5. 45.97% Axne – 45.70% Young

    6. 55.81% King – 39.69% Scholten

    7. 52.15% DeJear – 47.85% Pate

    8. 83% Miller – 17% Marco

    9. 49.35% Naig – 44.15% Gannon

    10. 56% DeJear – 44% Pate

    11. 58.15% Fitzgerald – 35.35% Davis

    12. Iowa House: 52 Republicans – 48 Democrats.

    13. Iowa Senate: 27 Republicans – 23 Democrats (Dems pick up 4, but reps steal 1 and gain the I seat…I think this would be more promising if ALL the seats were up!)

    14. IA-3, for sure.

    15. HD44. If that goes blue, I think the Dems could take the House.

    16. Claire McCaskill.

    17. 229 Dem – 206 Rep

    18. 51 Rep – 49 Dem, but if I could say 51.5-48.5 to hedge my bets, I would.

    • comments can't be edited here

      That’s why I require predictions to be posted on the website, not on social media where they could be revised after the election.

      It’s no problem, I always consider the last predictions someone posts to be their final contest entry.

  • Midterm Predictions

    1. 1,324,410

    2. Hubbell 47.9-46.1

    3. Finkenauer 52-43

    4. Loebsack 54-39

    5. Axne 46.8 -45.2

    6. King 49-44 (argh.)

    7. Pate 48.5-47.9

    8. Miller 68-30

    9. Gannon 49-48

    10. Sand 52-46

    11. Iowa House — 50-50

    12 Iowa Sen. Repub 26-23

    13. Closest, Iowa: IA Sen 41

    14. Closest US Sen: Arizona

    15. US House: Dem 232-203

    16. US Sen. 50-50

    • Oops, I missed two questions (let me know if you need me to re-post a single comlete set)

      Treasurer — Fitzgerald 61-37

      Closest congressional race in Iowa — IA03.

      • you don't need to post a new comment

        with all the predictions in one place. I will just refer to the comments you’ve already posted. Thanks!

  • Pessimistic predictions

    Since I prevailed in 2016, I guess I better defend my title. Sadly, not feeling too optimistic at this moment.

    1. 1,180,000
    2. Reynolds 49%, Hubbell 47%.
    3. Finkenauer 51%, Blum 48%.
    4. Loebsack 54%, Peters 43%.
    5. Young 49%, Axne 48%.
    6. King 56%, Scholten 42%.
    7. Pate 50%, DeJear 49%.
    8. Miller 73%, Battaglia 23%.
    9. Naig 53%, Gannon 45%.
    10. Mosiman 51%, Sand 45%.
    11. Fitzgerald 57%, Davis 39%.
    12. R 56, D 44.
    13. R 28, D 22.
    14. IA-3
    15. HD38
    16. Missouri
    17. D 219, R 216
    18. R 55, D 45

  • Election Contest

    1. 1,389,026
    2. Hubbell 49.1% Reynolds 46.8%
    3. Abby 53.2% Blum 46.8%
    4. Loebsack 54.1% Peters 44.1%
    5. Cindy 51.1% Young 48.9%
    6. King 53.7% JD 46.8%
    7. Pate 52.8% Deirdre 47.7%
    8. Miller 71% Bat 27%
    9. Naig 52.9% Gannon 47.2%
    10. Sand 52% Mosiman 47.5%
    11. Fitz 59% Davis 39%
    12 Ds 45 Rs 55
    13. Ds 22 Rs 28
    14. 03 District
    15. HD 42
    16. MO
    17. D225 R 210
    18. R 53-47

  • hope i'm right!

    1. 1,235,467
    2. 49-45 Hubbell
    3. 52-44 Finkenauer
    4. 58-40 Loebsack
    5. 48-45 Axne
    6. 49.5-44 King 🙁
    7. 48-46 DeJear
    8. 76-24 Miller
    9. 48-48 Gannon (by a hair)
    10. 51-46 Sand
    11. 55-43 Fitzgerald
    12. 53-47 Republican Control
    13. 28-22 Republican Control
    14. IA-03
    15. SD-41
    16. Nevada
    17. 231-204 Democratic Control
    18. 51-49 Republican Control

  • Predictions

    1. 1,190,000
    2. Hubbell 50 Reynolds 46
    3. Finkenauer 53 Blum 45
    4. Loebsack 56 Peters 41
    5. Axne 49 Young 47
    6. Steve King 50 J.D. Scholten 48
    7. Pate 51 DeJear 48
    8. Tom Miller 79 Battaglia 21
    9. Mike Naig 50 Tim Gannon 49
    10. Rob Sand 51 Mary Mosiman 48
    11. Michael Fitzgerald 60 Jeremy Davis 38
    12. 52 Democrats 48 Republican
    13. 27 Republican 23 Democrats
    14. Third District
    15. Senate District 41
    16. Nevada
    17. Democrats 230 Republicans 205
    18. Democrats 50 Republicans 50

  • going with my optimistic scenario

    despite the fact that the 2016 election turned out far worse than my doomsday predictions.

    1. Turnout: 1,180,000

    2. Hubbell 49 percent, Reynolds 48 percent

    3. Finkenauer 52 percent, Blum 46 percent

    4. Loebsack 57 percent, Peters 43 percent

    5. This was the toughest one for me. Axne 49 percent, Young 47 percent

    6. King 50 percent, Scholten 46 percent (would love to be wrong)

    7. Pate 54 percent, DeJear 46 percent

    8. Miller 72 percent, Battaglia 28 percent

    9. Naig 51 percent, Gannon 48 percent

    10. Sand 52 percent, Mosiman 48 percent

    11. Fitzgerald 58 percent, Davis 42 percent

    12. 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats

    13. 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats

    14. IA-03

    15. House district 55

    16. Arizona

    17. 229 Democrats, 206 Republicans

    18. 52 Republicans, 48 Democrats

  • 2018 Gen'l Election

    1 1,160,000
    2 Hubbell 53, Reynolds 45
    3 Finkenauer 55, Blum 45
    4 Loebsack 55, Peters 45
    5 Axne 53, Young 47
    6 Scholten 51, King 49
    7 Dejear 51, Pate 49
    8 Miller 85, Battaglia 15
    9 Gannon 53, Naig 47
    10 Sand 54, Mosiman 46
    11 Fitzgerald 60, Davis 40
    12 Democrats 53, Republicans 47
    13 Democrats 23, Republicans 27
    14 4th
    15 Jackie Smith vs Bertrand
    16 Missouri
    17 Democrats 235, Republicans 180
    18 Democrats 47, Republicans 53

  • I know i'm too late but want to give it a try anyway

    1. 1,220,000

    2. Hubbell 50 percent, Reynolds 48 percent

    3. Finkenauer 54.5 percent, Blum 42.5 percent

    4. Loebsack 55 percent, Peters 44 percent

    5. Axne 48 percent, Young 47 percent

    6. King 49 percent, Scholten 46.5 percent

    7. DeJear 50.1 percent, Pate 49.9 percent

    8. Miller 74 percent, Battaglia 26 percent

    9. Naig 53 percent, Gannon 47 percent

    10. Sand 54 percent, Mosiman 46 percent

    11. Fitzgerald 60 percent, Davis 40 percent

    12. 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans

    13. 30 Republicans, 20 Democrats

    14. IA-03

    15. House district 55 (that’s were I spent my high school exchange 20 years ago and got to love Iowa)

    16. Missouri

    17. 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans

    18. 50 Republicans, 50 Democrats

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