Politico set off another round of speculation about U.S. Senator Joni Ernst’s future this week. Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade reported on July 10 that Ernst “is the next GOP senator on retirement watch,” with U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) “waiting in the wings” if the incumbent opts not to seek a third term.

Hinson brushed off the rumors, telling WHO Radio host Simon Conway she’s “100 percent on Team Joni” and hopes Ernst will run again. She added, “The DC media loves to obsess over things.” Notably, Hinson didn’t clarify whether she would run for Senate next year if the seat were open—nor did Conway ask her.

I’ve long believed Hinson is laying the groundwork to run for Senate as soon as Iowa has an open seat—presumably in 2028, when Senator Chuck Grassley’s eighth term will end.

So while I still expect Ernst to seek re-election, the latest coverage got me thinking: who would be the tougher opponent for the Democratic nominee in 2026? It’s usually harder to defeat an incumbent than to flip an open seat. But this race might be the exception that proves the rule.

WILL SHE OR WON’T SHE?

Not long ago, the idea of Ernst retiring would have seemed far-fetched. In May 2024, journalist Douglas Burns asked the senator to rate her chances of running for a third term on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most likely to run. She replied, “That is my intent. So I would say, yes, 10 very likely. I love representing the people of Iowa, and it really has been a very fulfilling position for me to be able to fight for rural America.” With Republicans in control of the Senate, she’s chairing a committee for the first time this year.

This spring, I started to wonder. Most years, Ernst has held a “Roast and Ride” fundraiser in June. That’s where she announced in 2019 that she would seek a second six-year term. Her campaign typically begins promoting the fundraiser months in advance. This year’s Roast and Ride is happening in October, and Ernst didn’t even reveal the event date until late May. Why put that off?

In early June, a few days after “Well, we all are going to die” went viral on every platform, Ernst announced the hiring of a 2026 campaign manager, Bryan Kraber. But according to Carney’s and Bade’s reporting, “Ernst has told people as recently as the past month that she is still considering whether she wants to run again.” (Governor Kim Reynolds also hired campaign staff months before announcing that she would not seek re-election in 2026.)

Why would Ernst leave the Senate, given Iowa voters’ tendency to re-elect incumbents and the huge structural advantage Republicans now enjoy in our statewide elections?

Bade said during a July 11 appearance on the MSNBC program “Morning Joe,” “Behind the scenes, I’m hearing from Senate Republicans that they just don’t see the fight in her anymore.” The Politico article cited four reasons Ernst has had “a tough few months.”

One was losing her Senate GOP leadership role. Bade said Ernst “felt rather betrayed” by Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, whom she considered a close friend before he competed against her for the third-ranking position. After six years on the Senate GOP’s leadership team, it would be upsetting to be rejected by Republican colleagues. Then again, their decision wasn’t surprising. Cotton was an early endorser of President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign and remained close to Trump, whereas Ernst appeared to be on the outs with the incoming president.

Bade noted that Ernst “totally got dragged by MAGA influencers online” when she hesitated to back Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon. The White House and their allies carried out a “really ugly campaign” to make an example out of her, even suggesting Iowa’s junior senator wanted to be defense secretary herself. (Bade characterized that rumor as “totally false” and a “smear campaign.”) By several accounts, Ernst faced physical as well as political threats. Although she did end up supporting Hegseth’s confirmation, some MAGA Republicans haven’t forgiven her for not being a cheerleader immediately.

The Politico article also cited Ernst’s decision to throw in with Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency. Being the face of the Senate’s DOGE caucus is less desirable now that Musk is feuding with Trump.

Most recently, the senator generated an avalanche of negative media coverage through her remarks about Medicaid and weird non-apology video, filmed in a cemetery.

I would add a couple of factors Politico didn’t mention.

A POTENTIALLY TOUGH PRIMARY CAMPAIGN

Ernst will face at least one primary challenger from the right. Former State Senator Jim Carlin, a MAGA Republican who received 26.5 percent of the vote against Senator Chuck Grassley in the 2022 primary, is running for Senate again. On July 10, he released a digital ad featuring endorsements from GOP State Senators Doug Campbell and Kevin Alons and State Representatives Eddie Andrews and Samantha Fett. In the video, Carlin says, “Iowa doesn’t need another senator who says one thing and does another. I think people are tired of phony politicians. […] We need straight shooters. We need reformers. We need men and women with a spine.”

Former Libertarian activist Joshua Smith announced plans late last year to run against Ernst as a Republican. He declared in his debut digital ad, “You suck, Joni!” In recent weeks, he has bashed Ernst as an “AIPAC puppet” and highlighted the incumbent’s low score on the so-called “Republican Liberty Index.”

I thought it was risky for Ernst to go all in on DOGE. But there was one obvious political upside: as leader of the DOGE caucus, she could expect support from a big-spending billionaire as she faced a GOP primary challenger from the right.

Now Musk is sulking. “What the heck was the point of @DOGE if he’s just going to increase the debt by $5 trillion??” he posted last week on his X platform. He has even threatened to fund primary challengers against members of Congress who voted for the budget reconciliation bill.

It’s difficult to beat an incumbent in a primary, especially if two or more challengers split the field. Moreover, Ernst seems to be on relatively good terms with Trump again; she was given a speaking slot at the “America 250” rally in Des Moines on July 3. So she would be heavily favored in a Republican primary. But she may not want to go through that unpleasantness.

AN EMBARRASSING REPORT ON “ETHICAL CONCERNS”

ProPublica’s Robert Faturechi published a blockbuster investigation in March titled, “Ethical Concerns Surround Sen. Joni Ernst’s Relationships With Top Military Officials Who Lobbied Her Committee.” The piece drew heavily on an Air Force inspector general’s report about Maj. Gen. Christopher Finerty’s allegedly “inappropriate” romantic relationships with women who worked on Capitol Hill.

The Air Force inspector general’s report redacted the names of the women who worked on the Hill.

But one of the women whose relationship with Finerty was scrutinized by the inspector general was Sen. Joni Ernst, according to two sources with knowledge of the investigation. […]

Three other sources told ProPublica that around 2019 Ernst had a previous romantic relationship with a legislative affairs official for a different branch of the military, the Navy. […]

A former legislative affairs official for the military told ProPublica that people in that role aren’t officially “lobbyists but for all intent and purposes that’s their job. … From an ethics standpoint, it’s severely problematic.” A former Air Force officer who worked for Finerty said the perception in the office was that his relationship with Ernst “absolutely gave the Air Force undue influence.”

Six sources who worked for the Air Force or in Congress told ProPublica that they had heard about a relationship between Ernst and Finerty and there had been concerns about it for years.

Ernst’s spokesperson did not confirm or deny that the senator had relationships with military liaisons but pushed back strongly against suggestions of undue influence, telling ProPublica, “The fake news media is clearly too busy gossiping to report the real news that Senator Ernst is focused on cutting waste at the Pentagon. Her votes and work in the Senate are guided by the voices of Iowans who elected her and her constitutional duty alone. Any insinuation otherwise by tabloid ‘journalism’ is a slanderous lie — full stop.”

The Des Moines Register and KCRG-TV were among the Iowa news outlets that republished Faturechi’s story, but I didn’t see much follow-up in local media, nor have I heard Iowa Democratic politicians raise this issue publicly. It’s a safe bet that the vast majority of Iowa voters haven’t heard about these allegations. That could change if Ernst seeks a third term, and outside groups use the scandal as fodder for campaign advertising.

ERNST’S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Politico, “I’m doing everything I can to encourage her to run for reelection.” Bade told the “Morning Joe” crew that Republicans still think Ernst “would easily win this race.” As I explained in this piece, I agree that the large GOP voter registration advantage and the history of high Republican turnout in Iowa’s midterm elections would be hard for a Democrat to overcome.

Moreover, incumbency brings many advantages. The last sitting U.S. senator to lose a re-election bid in Iowa was Roger Jepsen in 1984. So don’t discount the fact that Ernst has won two statewide elections. Granted, those happened in good years for Republicans, and she underperformed Governor Terry Branstad in 2014 and Donald Trump in 2020. Nevertheless, she did better than most pollsters (aside from Ann Selzer) anticipated.

Ernst does look weaker than your average incumbent, though.

“Well, we all are going to die” spread beyond highly-engaged voters to reach many who don’t follow politics closely. A June survey of Iowa voters by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling found 69 percent of voters had heard about Ernst’s comment; “By a 37 point margin those familiar with what she said report being less likely to vote for her next year.” Ernst’s job approval rating was poor: 39 percent approve/47 percent disapprove. Her re-elect numbers were worse: 38 percent supported re-electing her, while 52 percent preferred someone new. PPP found Ernst leading a generic Democratic opponent by just 45 percent to 43 percent.

In politics, it’s best to under-promise and over-deliver. Ernst did the opposite, talking a big game about the wasteful government spending she and DOGE would cut. During one national television appearance last November, Ernst claimed to have given Vivek Ramaswamy “a blueprint of $2 trillion of savings, nearly immediately.” She touted research done by her Senate staff, which supposedly laid out “a very clear blueprint for success” for DOGE. She boasted on the Senate floor that “DOGE is inevitable” and would scrutinize every dollar spent:

DOGE’s own website only claimed about $175 billion in savings, as of late May. That’s probably an exaggeration, since several of the line items are inaccurate. Meanwhile, one nonpartisan nonprofit group estimated that the way DOGE handled mass layoffs may end up costing the federal government $135 billion this year.

Ernst is bragging about saving taxpayers $100 million over the next ten years and supporting a $9 billion rescission package when she just voted for a budget reconciliation bill that will add trillions to the federal deficit and raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

If Republicans were united behind Ernst, she might be able to get away with exaggerating her work in Washington to “make ’em squeal.” But between now and June 2026, one or more primary challengers will be working hard to convince GOP voters that she’s a phony.

That isn’t a new idea for many conservatives. At least six county Republican parties around Iowa voted in 2022 to censure Ernst after she supported repealing the federal ban on same-sex marriage and requiring the federal government “to recognize a marriage between two individuals if the marriage was valid in the state where it was performed.” Some MAGA Republicans may recall that Ernst didn’t endorse Trump in 2024 until the day after “Super Tuesday,” when Nikki Haley dropped out of the presidential race.

More recently, the senator has done little or nothing to support landowners whose property is at risk of being seized for the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline. That’s a huge issue for part of the Republican base.

As explained above, Ernst may not be able to count on Musk to help her get her message out. Her best hope is for a Trump endorsement. Hence her groveling praise for Trump at the “America 250” rally. You can watch her speech here.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins (making the thumbs up gesture), Ernst (wearing a camo TRUMP hat), and Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer at the Iowa State Fairgrounds (photo first published on Ernst’s Twitter/X feed)

What if Ernst opts out of another campaign?

HINSON’S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

All other things being equal, a party would rather have an incumbent in the race than defend an open seat. But Hinson, now serving her third term in Congress, would carry less baggage into the 2026 campaign than Ernst.

For one thing, she’s never made national news by saying, “we all are going to die.” Hinson has been spreading the same lies about Medicaid as Ernst, claiming nearly a trillion dollars in cuts will strengthen the program for those who need it. Faced with hostile crowds, she stuck to her talking points without any major gaffes.

Having worked as a television reporter and anchor for about a decade, Hinson is comfortable on camera. She frequently appears on Fox News, Fox Business, and Newsmax, as well as conservative talk radio and podcasts. Every Republican in Congress will have to defend Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” next year, but Hinson will be better equipped than most to make her case.

Other points suggesting Hinson might be tougher to run against than Ernst:

• She has never been the focus of an investigation comparable to ProPublica’s story about Ernst.
• She was an outspoken advocate for DOGE, but wasn’t the face of the House DOGE caucus.
• Politico described Hinson as “the most formidable fundraiser in the Iowa House delegation.” That’s accurate, though she’d have an even larger war chest if she’d kept her burn rate lower over the years.

If she won the primary, Hinson would enjoy the same structural advantage for the November election as every other Republican running statewide in Iowa.

Her biggest potential problem: she wouldn’t have a clear shot at the nomination for an open Senate seat. She would be competing against other MAGA Republicans, with less statewide name ID than Ernst has now.

If Trump endorsed a different contender—say, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, who ran for Senate in Iowa in 2014—Hinson might as well stay in IA-02 next year and run for Grassley’s Senate seat in 2028.

Whitaker hasn’t publicly expressed interest in running for office again, but he traveled to Des Moines on Air Force One on July 3.

From left: U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, Representatives Zach Nunn (IA-03), Hinson, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) watch Trump on television aboard Air Force One on July 3 (photo first published on Miller-Meeks’ official Facebook page)

I wrote in May about Hinson’s relentless efforts to demonstrate her loyalty to Trump. Let’s just say she’s continued to lay it on thick.

She was proud to vote in favor of renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America,” calling it “a great victory for our country”: “When America is great, the world is great.”

She’s repeatedly called for 1 million deportations a year.

She has opined that Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize—”100%.”

At her town hall meetings, she has echoed Trump’s belief in divine intervention, asserting God saved the Republican candidate’s life in Butler County, Pennsylvania so Trump could save the country.

Hinson told WHO Radio’s Conway that the president signed a “Trump was right about everything” hat for her aboard Air Force One. “I have that in my office, and I think that will be a good reminder for me,” she added.

Hinson with Trump aboard Air Force One on July 3 (from her political Facebook page)

This past week, Hinson predicted, “President Trump’s leadership will change the course of history and ensure America is positioned to win our strategic competition with China on every front.”

Hinson has been telling anyone who will listen that Trump is ushering in a “golden age.” She’s touted the “golden age” on her social media feeds, on Fox News and Fox Business, and in conference calls with some Iowa reporters (her office has never allowed me to participate).

I’ll close with the over-the-top birthday message Hinson shared on Facebook last month. It gave me flashbacks to the Soviet newspapers I read while learning Russian in college:

Happy Birthday, President Trump!

America is blessed to have you as our Commander-in-Chief, and I’m proud to stand alongside you each and every day as we work to usher in America’s Golden Age.

Thank you for saving our country and changing the course of history for the next generation.

In the event of a recession before the 2026 midterms, a super-cut of “golden age” quotes should be easy for Democratic ad-makers to assemble—whether Hinson is on the ballot in the second Congressional district or statewide.

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Top photo originally published on Hinson’s political Facebook page on July 1.