First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2026 state and federal elections. This post first appeared on the Iowa politics with Laura Belin newsletter, where Laura publishes weekly summaries of her radio show, “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The 30-minute program is also available through all podcast platforms.

It’s been quite the week. I woke up on election day to see the New York Times had published Erik Wemple’s story about my years-long battle for access while covering state government. Here is a gift link. Erik’s research and attention to detail were remarkable—though it was strange to have a reporter following me around for a couple of days!

Erik’s article opens with Governor Kim Reynolds’ press secretary closing the door on me in January. Knowing a community has my back has gotten me through many frustrating days, and I will always be grateful to those who reached out then. When I told Danya Issawi my readers are supportive and even protective, that’s what I had in mind. Danya interviewed me recently for a Substack series on local news writers.

I was out late Tuesday night at the Democrats’ main victory party in Des Moines. Spencer Dirks and I were on the air early Wednesday to break down the election that ended the Iowa Republican trifecta and transformed our Congressional delegation from six Republicans and zero Democrats to a 4-2 Democratic split.

The sound file for our November 4 show (a special 60-minute edition) is available through all podcast platforms. Here’s a detailed summary, for those who would rather read than listen.

“We have a big job ahead of us,” Chris McGowan told a Republican crowd in Sioux City on October 22. “They expect Iowa four to do the heavy lifting for the rest of the state. Are we up for the task?”

McGowan is the GOP nominee in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, an open seat. His remarks underscore why President Donald Trump held that rally in Sioux City, and why Vice President JD Vance headlined an event in Council Bluffs in September.

While Iowans in the first, second, and third Congressional districts could help Democrats win back the U.S. House of Representatives, voters in the fourth district may determine who runs state government.

Republican candidates need big margins in northern and western Iowa in order to win statewide elections. Iowa GOP state chair Jeff Kaufmann screamed at the Sioux City crowd, “It is not an overstatement to say that the fourth district is our secret weapon. We need you again, fourth district! Will you be there for us?”

Signs suggest Republicans may leave votes on the table in the reddest part of Iowa. The two candidates most at risk of underperforming there are U.S. Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and Attorney General Brenna Bird.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com 

It’s 36 counties covering 21,546 square miles across northern and western Iowa. It’s the state’s largest Congressional district, but often overlooked, neglected, and forgotten by politicians and pundits.

Iowa’s fourth district is treated as fly-over country—except by the 801,546 people who call it home. I’m one of those people, and I vote.

Why is this huge area ignored?