Battle of the Sackses

Further thought (4.00 / 1)

A lot of this is unknowable because it will depend upon what she wants ultimately.  If she wants a Congressional seat, she pulls the trigger on the 2nd this time.  If what she is really after is Governor or Senate, then she will run against King and become a hero of the party regardless of whether she wins or loses.  (This would also be a boon to the President's hopes statewide as Democrats in all districts would be heavily activated.)  

Even with a loss, it would put her in a strong position to get a Gubernatorial or Senate nomination in 2014 (though I think Harkin will give it one more go).  

The thing to keep in mind though, is that she is 60 and can't wait much past the next cycle.  Someone high up in the party structure is going to have to promise her something good down the line for her to take a pass on the 2nd.

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by: BJazz @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 00:30:50 AM UTC

I think she wants to be in Congress (0.00 / 0)

She said late last year she has more of a "legislative" personality--hint hint, no plans to run for governor.

There's no guarantee a Senate seat will be open in 2014. Even if Harkin retires, or if Grassley retires in 2016, as I assume he will, Vilsack would be better positioned to seek the Democratic nomination as a member of Congress.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 12:32:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the plot thickens (0.00 / 0)

From Kay Henderson's blog:

Senator Tom Harkin & Congressman Bruce Braley are co-hosting a fundraiser for Congressman Dave Loebsack in the middle of May....in Scott County.  Scott County is currently in Braley's first congressional district, but Scott County would be in Iowa's new second congressional district if legislators approve the redistricting plan.  [...]

Congressman Leonard Boswell also has agreed to host a fundraiser for Loebsack in...wait for it...Jasper County.  Jasper is in the current third congressional district, which Boswell now represents, but it will be in the new second congressional district if the redistricting plan is approved.

Eric Witte, an aide to Loebsack, says these two fundraisers should erase "any doubt about people's efforts to help Loebsack in the new Second CD should the map pass...Both Scott and Jasper are in the new 2nd CD as are 14 of the 15 counties Dave currently represents."

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 14:39:33 PM UTC

DL has so much institutional support (0.00 / 0)

I think the 8 reasons above are well stated and for the most part correct.

However, the entire Iowa Democratic Congressional delegation is supportive of Loebsack, who indeed has been a good progressive.

I just have never heard of anything like this happening before...maybe that's why I don't think it's going to happen.

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by: ghbraves @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 15:13:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very interesting (0.00 / 0)

That pretty much proves that she's thinking about it and the big wigs know it.  Non-ideological primaries happen, maybe just not in Iowa because we like our incumbents.  I'm not saying it wouldn't be controversial, I'm not saying that she will win easily.  My point is that if she really wants it this is the least worst option for her.

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by: BJazz @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 19:30:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Johnson County primaries (0.00 / 0)

Johnson County primary turnout gets driven more by courthouse races than by top of the ticket. We haven't had a Republican supervisor in 50 years, so the Democratic primary is "the real election." Best case in point is 1998: 1000 more votes for county recorder than for governor.

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by: jdeeth @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 16:35:00 PM UTC

do you mean (0.00 / 0)

that Loebsack would be favored in a contested primary because Johnson County Democrats are more used to voting in primaries than Democrats in other parts of IA-02?

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 18:49:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Johnson County primaries (0.00 / 0)

Johnson County primary turnout gets driven more by courthouse races than by top of the ticket. We haven't had a Republican supervisor in 50 years, so the Democratic primary is "the real election." Best case in point is 1998: 1000 more votes for county recorder than for governor.

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by: jdeeth @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 16:35:08 PM UTC

Harkin (0.00 / 0)

A question that I have is whether Tom Harkin is doing these fundraisers for Leonard Boswell and Dave Loebsack because of their loyalty and friendship over the years or does he genuinely want to see them win in a contested primary against another high profile Democrat?  

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by: ModerateIADem @ Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 23:54:19 PM UTC

RE: Battle of the Sackses (0.00 / 0)

Don't you people in Des Moines have a more productive way to spend your time?

A person can make a hundred arguments why something would work. The proof is in the pudding and Vilsack, C. may want to run, but where was she when we needed a monied, well connected candidate against Grassley in 2010? Thank God for Roxanne.

If y'all want her to run, I suggest you keep her in Des Moines, or let her run in DC where she now lives.

Better yet, it is a free country, so let her make her own case about why she should displace other potential Democrats. That would be worth reading.

Paul Deaton
Solon, Iowa

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by: BigGroveWalker @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 14:51:01 PM UTC

Keep Christie in DSM... (0.00 / 0)

We don't want her in the 2nd!

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by: the skipper @ Fri Apr 08, 2011 at 17:16:41 PM UTC

Battle of the Sackses (0.00 / 0)

It would be unwise for her to challenge Loebsack similar to her husband's embarassing run for president. If she were to lose to Loebsack, her future in politics is over. If she were to lose to Steve King, she would still have a future. Why challenge a progressive Democrat when we could get rid of a right-wing nut?  Pure self-interest.  

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by: tnelson @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 02:26:50 AM UTC

yes, it would be pure self-interest (0.00 / 0)

But if she wants to serve in Congress, it's now or never, and the best time to challenge an incumbent is now, when redistricting has scrambled things up. Also, if you're a Democrat, the best district to run in is not the only one McCain carried.

I don't see Loebsack's voting record as particularly progressive, by the way.  

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 03:46:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Framing Vilsack, C. as "Wife of xxx" (0.00 / 0)

Am I the only person who finds it objectionable to frame Vilsack, C. as not her own person, but the wife of Vilsack, T. as was done in the original post?

It is ridiculous to say "now or never" in politics, and the new 2nd District looks a lot like the pre-2002 2nd District, so there is not much of a "scramble" as asserted.

Reiterate my point above, "let her make her own case about why she should displace other potential Democrats. That would be worth reading."

Paul Deaton
Solon, Iowa

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by: BigGroveWalker @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 13:16:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If she wants to serve in Congress (0.00 / 0)

she missed her opportunity by not challenging Grassley.

What is the point in challenging another Democrat particularly one who commands a lot of respect in the district because he knocked off a 15-term Republican incumbent?  

If she wants to serve in Congress she should try to knock off Steve King but she probably figures she'll lose?  She's not sure about Loebsack but she's willing to give it a try?

Christie needs to move on and choose another avenue other than self-interest.

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by: the skipper @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 12:49:10 PM UTC

battle of the sackses (0.00 / 0)

We who live in the 2nd district think he's got a pretty good progressive record. Loebsack is the only Iowa Congressman to:

1) be a member of the Progressive Caucus
2) co-sponsor the Respect for Marriage Act, which would repeal DOMA
3) co-sponsor HR 676, Rep. Conyers' single-payer bill

How progressive will Christie Vilsack be?  
 

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by: tnelson @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 17:08:36 PM UTC

I have nothing against Loebsack (0.00 / 0)

and I am no fan of Christie Vilsack, but in the years I've been looking up the Iowa members of Congress at Progressive Punch's site, I do not ever recall seeing Loebsack among even the 100 most progressive members of the Democratic caucus, according to his voting record. Yes, he belongs to the Progressive Caucus, but his lifetime voting record currently makes him the 134th most progressive House Democrat, and there are fewer than 180 House Democrats.

Here's his voting record broken into 14 different categories (each has a bunch of subcategories). He scores very well in some areas, like "Government Checks on Corporate Power" and the environment, less well in other areas, like family planning. Ironically, his "worst" area from a progressive perspective is the "war and peace" category. Take a look at the subcategories there. Loebsack is great if we're talking about funding the Peace Corps or programs that affect the well-being of military personnel, but he hasn't been a champion for getting us out of Afghanistan or reducing defense spending.

Note: I am not saying Christie Vilsack should run in IA-02, or that I would vote for her in a primary, or that she is progressive.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 01:29:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Loebsack & Progressive Punch (4.00 / 1)

Thanks for pointing out Progressive Punch. I mostly avoid these vote tally sites, and prefer to make my own analysis of voting patterns. Maybe I can learn something.

Regarding Loebsack, I looked at his record on War & Peace and he is exactly the congressman we sent to Washington in 2006. His view is that if we are going to send people in harm's way, they need to be supported financially so they have the equipment they need to do their jobs. I note PP gave him a 100% rating on "Well-Being of America's Military Personnel."

Regrettably, his position here supports a military industrial complex that seems more interested in keeping the cash coming in more than slowing it down. A legislator can't support the troops (except by bringing them home) without supporting defense spending.

Loebsack's worst score in this category on PP was regarding US intervention in Afghanistan and/or Pakistan, a war in progress for more than five years when Loebsack was first sworn in. A key ask many of us have had was for Loebsack to support following the president's initiative in exiting Afghanistan, something he is doing. His votes regarding Afghanistan and his resulting "low" score are consistent with this and with the views upon which he was elected.

Note he gets a 100 in 6 categories, including Peace Corps as you mention, but also in relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia, Proliferation of Militarily Applicable Technology and General US Intervention overseas. All of these are important to progressives.

Loebsack got a "low" score  in Missile Defense Systems, an issue I have spent time trying to understand. His one non-progressive vote on HR1 in 2011 makes sense, given the way PP framed the issue as progressive. Too, on categories like Arms Control Treaties, Loebsack missed voting June 10, 2010 when three of the five votes tallied by PP were held, giving him a "low" score. I have had several discussions with Loebsack on Arms Control Treaties and his position is clearly Progressive, despite the way PP frames his voting record.

What is most relevant here is that not once was I able to get an audience with Loebsack's 30 year predecessor to have these discussions. If I am a progressive, Dave Loebsack had the courage to run against an entrenched Republican, won and give a voice to my concerns in Congress. As long as he continues to be the Dave Loebsack we worked to send to Washington in 2006, he will have my support against any challenger.

Paul Deaton
Solon, Iowa

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by: BigGroveWalker @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 12:34:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

voting scorecards are flawed (0.00 / 0)

but Progressive Punch looks at a much larger number of votes than most interest groups do. I agree with you that being absent for a vote shouldn't count the same as voting the "wrong" way on that bill, but still, I wouldn't call Loebsack a progressive champion. It's great that he co-sponsored HR 676, but I don't recall him pounding the table demanding a better health care reform package. I receive all of his press releases, and he didn't send out anything about our military intervention in Libya for more than a week after we started missile strikes. You would think someone on the Armed Services Committee, who first went to Congress as an anti-war candidate, would have an opinion on that.

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 14:28:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Press releases from the Iowa Delegation (0.00 / 0)

represent an opportunity for improvement across the board. During Loebsack's 2006 campaign, I tried to help and do not recall him running as an "anti-war candidate," although I presume a case could be made that he was. His views on all of it, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya has remained constant as far as I can tell. Perhaps Loebsack's strength as a congressman and campaigner is that he is always talking to people in the district so we don't have to rely upon press releases to know where he stands. He explained his position on Libya and

I reiterate my comment (which must be getting old by now) that we need to hear from Vilsack, C. on the matter to say anything meaningful of the Battle of the Sackses.

Best regards, Paul

Paul Deaton
Solon, Iowa

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by: BigGroveWalker @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 21:24:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think we need a campaign announcement (0.00 / 0)

from Christie Vilsack to speculate about an IA-02 primary any more than I need to wait for Tom Latham to close on a house before speculating on an IA-03 race against Boswell. What are political bloggers for?

Invite other Iowa political junkies to join us at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 21:42:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Apparently my ability to (0.00 / 0)

spell and use proper grammar are vaporized when posting on this site.

I went digging through the archives and there was speculation about Vilsack, C. back in July 2010 on Politico. http://www.politico.com/news/s...

It is really the news hook of the redistricting that has us chattering about this topic now, that is unless you are saying Vilsack, C. asked you to post about this. Knowing your previous statements about intermingling with the politicians, I don't believe that is the case.

there is a question for speculation: Would Vilsack, C. put out a trial balloon using the blogosphere?

Paul Deaton
Solon, Iowa

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by: BigGroveWalker @ Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 22:15:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sack Race (0.00 / 0)

I totally agree that if Christie Vilsack wants to run for something, she should run where it will count if she wins.  Why challenge Loebsack, who has gained a strong following and generally supports good policy?  

Imo, the Vilsacks ought to re-locate in the 4rth/5th District and go after Latham/King.  Yes, it's harder for the Dems to win there, but she would be doing more good than initiating an in-house challenge to a well-respected Dem incumbent.  That alone would make me wary of supporting her.  <

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by: hhartus @ Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 22:51:13 PM UTC

I completely agree with hhartus (0.00 / 0)

and to put a finer point on the possibility of a Vilsack v. Loebsack primary, this illustrates one of many examples of the stupidity of Democrats: attempting to sack a worthy member of Congress from your own party.

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by: the skipper @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 15:14:43 PM UTC

Typical democrat loser move (0.00 / 0)

Bravo Vilsacks! Typical democrat loser-move. Challenge your own guy. Drain the bank account on the primary.  Lose the general because you bloodied up the encumbent and now he's broke and you still have King in Congress. Priceless.  

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by: libdude @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 18:06:38 PM UTC

Why "battle" one of your own? (0.00 / 0)

* Does Loebsack deserve to be retired?  No.

* Is there evidence that Christie Vilsack would be a better Representative in Congress than Dave Loebsack?  No.

* Would a primary battle strengthen the Iowa Democratic Party?  No.

* Would a contested primary battle be expensive?  Yes.

* Would an expensive primary battle benefit Republicans?  Yes.

I think highly of Christie Vilsack, but I hope that she does not challenge Dave Loebsack.

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by: pjhansen @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 22:03:18 PM UTC

Loebsack won't lose a general election (0.00 / 0)

The Quad Cities which he picked up aren't exactly a place where conservatives thrive and although Linn County is a loss for him, he would be fine.

Dave gets caught up with rural voters because he doesn't have the folksy nature of a Leonard Boswell.  When he talks immigration issues, he simply goes into a pro-guest worker stance and right there it has you in trouble with some conservative leaning Democrats.  I'm not saying Loebsack's answer to immigration matter doesn't make sense, he doesn't give the best political answer however.

There's simply an enthusiasm gap with Dave and it isn't necessarily because of the issues amongst rural Dems, it's just that he doesn't inspire people.  He lulls you to sleep to be honest in many ways.  I've heard Tom Harkin and Bruce Braley and regardless of whether you agree with them all of the time or not, they can give a barn burner of a speech.  I think I've learned over the five years of Loebsack's tenure I have learned that attorneys can give a better political speech.  

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by: ModerateIADem @ Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 22:45:00 PM UTC

Rumor (0.00 / 0)

Heard a rumor at the Capitol yesterday that both Christie Vilsack and Dave Loebsack are calling state legislators in the new 2nd dsitrict, just to say hi.  

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by: JRIowa @ Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 19:30:16 PM UTC