Iowa primary election results thread

Polls closed across Iowa at 9 pm, and I will update this post periodically as results come in from around the states. Any comments related to today’s elections are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- As expected, Wisconsin Democrats fell short in their effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker.

UPDATE: Results are after the jump.  

Full vote totals and percentages are on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

IA-01: Early returns show Rod Blum keeping it closer than expected with Republican establishment favorite Ben Lange. UPDATE: Wow, with nearly all the votes counted, Lange is leading Blum by only 52 percent to 47 percent. LATER UPDATE: I don’t think anyone expected this primary to be so close. With all but two precincts in, it’s Lange 52.8 percent, Blum 46.6 percent. FINAL: Lange 52.8 percent, Blum 46.6 percent. Imagine what might have happened if Blum had had a little more money to spend building his name recognition around the district.

IA-02: Early returns show John Archer ahead of Dan Dolan on the Republican side and Dave Loebsack way ahead of Joe Seng. UPDATE: With 255 of 425 precincts in, Loebsack has 86 percent of the vote, and Archer has a big lead on Dolan, 58 percent to 41 percent. LATER UPDATE: Loebsack’s share of the vote has dropped below 80 percent. Archer has a commanding lead in the GOP primary. FINAL: Loebsack 81.5 percent, Seng 18.3 percent. The incumbent was smart not to waste a lot of money on the primary campaign. On the Republican side, Archer finished with 60.5 percent of the vote, to 39.3 percent for Dolan. Was his message more appealing, or did he mainly benefit from having started building his name recognition on tv and radio sooner?

State Senate: Crawford County Supervisor Mark Segebart looks to be on track to win the GOP nomination in open Senate district 6. Governor Branstad had endorsed Carroll Mayor Adam Schweers. UPDATE: With all but one precinct in, Segebart has 46.6 percent to 40.3 percent for Schweers.

Dennis Guth defeated GOP establishment favorite James Black in the open Senate district 4. The Democratic nominee will be Bob Jennings.

In the open Senate district 10, where Democrats have no candidate, Jake Chapman easily wins the GOP primary with 65 percent of the vote to 34 percent for Matthew Mardesen.

Amy Sinclair will be the Republican nominee in the open Senate district 14, where Paul McKinley is retiring. Dick Schrad will be the Democratic candidate.

Jane Jech has a slight lead on Larry McKibben in the Senate district 36 GOP primary. Winner faces first-term Democrat Steve Sodders. UPDATE: Jech crushed McKibben. With all but two precincts in, she’s ahead 59 percent to 41 percent. That improves Democratic prospects for holding their Iowa Senate majority. Hard to see Sodders losing to Jech.

No results yet in Senate district 22. Incumbent Pat Ward defeats right-wing challenger Jeff Mullen easily in the Polk County precincts of Senate district 22. He’s competitive in the Dallas County part of the district, but Bleeding Heartland user albert notes in the comments that Ward is taking the lead even there. UPDATE: With most of the votes counted, Ward leads 58 percent to 42 percent. I hope Mullen’s supporters sulk and stay home in November.

With about half the precincts in, Shelley Parbs leads the three-way Democratic primary race in Senate district 38, where the winner faces first-term Republican Tim Kapucian. UPDATE: Parbs has 57 percent of the vote with only one precinct left to report.

Very early returns show Larry Kruse leading the GOP primary and Rich Taylor leading the Democratic primary in the open Senate district 42. UPDATE: It will be Taylor vs Kruse in this Democratic-leaning district.

In the clash of two GOP Senate incumbents, Jim Hahn leads Shawn Hamerlinck with about 20 percent of the precincts counted in Senate district 46. UPDATE: Hahn holding his lead with about half the precincts reported. The Democratic nominee for this district is Chris Brase. LATER UPDATE: Scott County reported and carried the day for Hamerlinck. He wins this primary with nearly 61 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Hahn.

Dan Zumbach will easily with the GOP primary in the open Senate district 48. The Democratic nominee will be Nate Willems.

Rita Hart defeated Dorothy O’Brien by nearly 54 percent to 46 percent in the Democratic primary for open Senate district 49. The GOP nominee is Andrew Naeve, who nearly won this Democratic-leaning area in 2010.

Former IA-01 Congressional candidate Will Johnson, a big Ron Paul supporter, won the GOP primary in Senate district 50 (Dubuque). He won’t stand a chance against first-term Democrat Pam Jochum.

On the Iowa House side:

Iowa House Republican Whip Erik Helland lost his primary to Jake Highfill in House district 39. That’s a big upset. Former State Representative Walt Tomenga, who represented part of this area before retiring in 2008, had publicly endorsed Highfill and slammed Helland.

LATER UPDATE: Helland was the only Iowa House GOP incumbent to lose to a primary challenger, not counting Sweeney (who lost to a fellow incumbent).

Pat Grassley is on track to defeat Annette Sweeney in Iowa House district 50. UPDATE: Not even close, Grassley 61 percent, Sweeney 39 percent. Will Bruce Rastetter still give huge sums of money to the House Republican Majority Fund?

Incumbent Jeff Smith will survive his primary challenge in House district 1. Ditto for Ron Jorgensen in House district 6, Greg Forristall in House district 22, Joel Fry in House district 27, and Jarad Klein in House district 78.

Henry Rayhons is barely ahead of his primary challenger, Bob Dishman, in House district 8. UPDATE: Rayhons holds on to win that primary. First-term incumbent Tom Shaw trails Maison Bleam in the early returns from House district 10. UPDATE: With almost all of the votes in, Shaw leads 64 percent to 36 percent.

Incumbent Cecil Dolecheck has a narrow lead with about a third of the precincts counted in House district 24. UPDATE: It turned out to be a blowout for Dolecheck, who received nearly 59 percent of the vote against Jane Jensen.

Julian Garrett looks on track to defeat his primary challenger in House district 25. UPDATE: Garrett wins with 59 percent of the vote.

In House district 26, the more conservative Republican Steve McCoy defeated Carlisle Mayor Ruth Randleman by nearly 56 percent to 44 percent in the GOP primary. Scott Ourth is the Democratic nominee in this open seat, where Glen Massie is retiring.

Republican House incumbent Kevin Koester also survived his primary challenge in House district 38.

None of the six Republican candidates won 35 percent of the vote in the open House district 37. Jim Robidoux fell just short with 34.4 percent. Matt DeVries was in second place with 29.7 percent. A district convention will decide the nomination.

Marti Anderson narrowly defeats Cara Kennedy-Ode in the three-way Democratic primary for House district 36. Janet Peterson vacated that district to run for the Iowa Senate. Jeff Ibbotson wins the three-way Republican primary in that district but probably has no chance against Anderson in the general.

Jim Carley wins the GOP nomination in the new House district 30, where Kim Pearson retired. Carley faces Democratic nominee Joe Riding in the general.

Michael Klimesh wins the three-way GOP primary in House district 55. He’ll face Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas.

In the open Iowa House district 72, where Republican Lance Horbach is retiring, Nathan Wrage won the Democratic primary against Cristina Blackcloud-Garcia by 53.6 percent to 46.1 percent. I believe Blackcloud-Garcia is the first Native-American woman to run for the Iowa legislature. Wrage will face Republican Dean Fisher in the general.

David Johnson and Dick Schwab are neck and neck in the Democratic primary in House district 73. The winner faces Bobby Kaufmann, son of retiring GOP House Speaker Pro-Tem Jeff Kaufmann. LATE UPDATE: Final results: Schwab nearly 57 percent, Johnson 43 percent. We will see whether Johnson was right when he warned that a candidate from Johnson County (Schwab) would struggle in a district where more constituents live in Cedar County.

In the open House district 76, David Maxwell won the GOP primary by a 2-1 margin over Larry Wilson. He’ll face Grinnell City Council member Rachel Bly in the general.

Megan Hess won the GOP primary in the open House district 2, defeating Josh Davenport by nearly 54 percent to 46 percent. She’ll be heavily favored to beat Democrat Steve Bomgaars this November. This was a test of strength for various conservative interest groups in a heavily Republican part of northwest Iowa.

Both candidates reside in Spencer. Davenport is a pastor. Hess is a recent law school graduate who has worked in the Iowa and Minnesota legislatures and assisted Congressman Steve King and Senator Chuck Grassley. Iowa Gun Owners and Iowa Liberty PAC support Davenport. He also has the backing of House members Kim Pearson and Tom Shaw. The NRA endorsed Hess. Iowa Right to Life supports both candidates.

In more open-seat results, Greg Heartsill won big (3-1 margin) in the GOP primary to represent House district 28. He’ll face Democrat Megan Day Suhr this November.

Linn County Auditor Joel Miller easily defeated two Democratic primary challengers, winning 58 percent of the vote.

But Johnson County Auditor Tom Slockett trails his Democratic primary challenger Travis Weipert. UPDATE: Slockett conceded. It’s rare for a 35-year incumbent to lose a primary.

Tags: 2012 Elections, Adam Schweers, Amy Sinclair, Andrew Naeve, Annette Sweeney, Ben Lange, Bob Jennings, Bobby Kaufmann, Bruce Rastetter, Cara Kennedy-Ode, Cecil Dolecheck, Chris Brase, Dan Dolan, Dan Zumbach, Dave Loebsack, David Johnson, David Maxwell, Dean Fisher, Dennis Guth, Dick Schrad, Dick Schwab, Erik Helland, Greg Forristall, Greg Heartsill, HD 1, HD 2, HD 25, HD 26, HD 30, HD 36, HD 37, HD 73, HD-01 2012, HD-02 2012, HD-06 2012, HD-25 2012, HD-28, HD-28 2012, HD-30 2012, HD-36 2012, HD-37 2012, HD-38, HD-38 2012, HD-39, HD-39 2012, HD-50, HD-50 2012, HD-55, HD-55 2012, HD-6, HD-72, HD-73 2012, HD-76, Henry Rayhons, IA-01, IA-01 2012, IA-02, IA-02 2012, Iowa House, Iowa House Races, Iowa Senate, Iowa Senate Races, Jake Chapman, Jake Highfill, James Black, Jane Jech, Jarad Klein, Jeff Kaufmann, Jeff Smith, Jim Carley, Jim Hahn, Jim Robidoux, Joe Riding, Joe Seng, Joel Fry, Joel Miller, John Archer, Julian Garrett, Kevin Koester, Larry Kruse, Larry McKibben, Local, Mark Segebart, Marti Anderson, Matt DeVries, Matthew Ung, Megan Day Suhr, Megan Hess, Michael Klimesh, Nate Willems, Nathan Wrage, Pam Jochum, Pat Grassley, Rachel Bly, Rich Taylor, Rita Hart, Rod Blum, Roger Thomas, Ron Jorgensen, Scott Ourth, SD 48, SD-04, SD-04 2012, SD-10, SD-10 2012, SD-14, SD-14 2012, SD-36, SD-36 2012, SD-38, SD-38 2012, SD-4, SD-42, SD-42 2012, SD-46, SD-46 2012, SD-48 2012, SD-49, SD-49 2012, SD-50, SD-50 2012, SD-6, Shawn Hamerlinck, Shelley Parbs, State Legislature, Steve McCoy, Steve Sodders, Tim Kapucian, Tom Shaw, Tom Slockett, Travis Weipert, Will Johnson
  • some results

    Polk SD22

    Vote for 1 PRECINCTS REPORTED

    12/14

    Candidate Name Votes

    Jeff Mullen 557 ( 38.73%)

    Pat Ward 879 ( 61.13%)

    WRITE-IN 2 (  0.14%)

    Dallas SD22 – no results yet

    HD36

    Vote for 1 PRECINCTS REPORTED

    11/13

    Candidate Name Votes

    Marti Anderson 1024 ( 48.79%)

    Cara Kennedy-Ode 998 ( 47.55%)

    William Rock 77 (  3.67%)

    WRITE-IN 0 (  0.00%)

    No results from Grundy County yet (HD50)

  • SD22 update

    Polk Final:

    Jeff Mullen 703 ( 38.06%)

    Pat Ward 1142 ( 61.83%)

    WRITE-IN 2 (  0.11%)

  • Sinclair crushing in SD14

  • Senate District 36

    Local Tea Party activist Jane Jech is leading Larry McKibben (A Branstad pick) with 46% of the vote in.  She has 788 votes to McKibben’s 492.  In Marshall County, Jech is beating McKibben 515-489 as of 9:58 pm.

    http://www.co.marshall.ia.us/d…

    http://www.timesrepublican.com…

  • HD46 and Scott County

    Scott County:

    Shawn Hamerlinck 773 82.76%

    Jim Hahn 159 17.02%

    Write-in Votes 2 0.21%

    Dave Loebsack 1496 55.57%

    Joe M. Seng 1194 44.35%    

    Write-in Votes 2 0.07%

    John Archer 2499 59.61%

    Dan Dolan 1688 40.27%

    Write-in Votes 5 0.12%

    MUSCATINE — no results yet

  • helland

    did i read correctly that helland lost to highfill in Johnston?

  • HD 73/Johnson

    Johnson:

    Johnson         Schwab

    152 30% 362 70%

    Loebsack                Seng

    3,825 3,393 90% 350 9%

    Cedar County aud: no results

    West Branch Times: no results

    DMR: no results

  • sweeney/grassley?

  • Jorgensen wins

    Ron Jorgensen wins, 1,276 -1,014

  • polk turnout

    5.3%

  • Johnson County Auditor

    Travis Weipert beat the incumbent, Tom Slockett, by 62 to 38% in the Democratic Primary.

  • Shaw-Bleam

    not as competitive as I’d hoped with a Shaw 65% win.

    McKibben never bothered w/ a web site. I think the final analysis will show that the Paul people had an outsized influence in a low-turnout primary/CD 1.

    I once looked at Paul’s support in the state. His top precincts were in Fairfield and Iowa City. His first tier of support was in bluer areas, including Dubuque. Second tier — did well in “exurbs” like Grimes. Probably a factor in the Highfill race. Did poorly in conservative areas, so Jeff Smith kept his challenger at bay.

  • Comments

    (1) Archer/Hamerlinck & Scott County

    Have no idea why people complained about Scott reporting. They had results up early. It was the SOS (and thus DMR) that were slow on the uptake. I got tired of the zeroes and went to individual counties in early comments.

    Scott County continues to not “fall in line” — Loebsack still has some work to do here. Archer was thorough — give him that. I noted that during the closing weeks he was talking up Steve King to make hay in the “forgotten counties” from old IA-05. Didn’t leave much to chance. Did not care for his boilerplate campaign, but let’s see what he does for a GE audience.

    Hamerlinck/Hahn — this was definitely a “regional” primary, but the younger hustler also had an advantage against a 78-yr old opponent who maybe just didn’t have it in him any longer to hit the doors & fundraise.

    (2) IA-01 – Lange/Blum – combination of Lange’s coasting + “liberty/freedom/Paul” presence in the district in a low-turnout primary made this race appear closer than what it was. The anti-establishment types and fiscal tightwads clearly haven’t gone anywhere, so expect Braley to continue his cautious campaign. Braley should win easily as long as he doesn’t become a nervous ninny again. Lange has little substance, and I hope that Braley is ready to lower the boom on him should Lange hide behind ridiculous ads again.

    (3) SD22 – Just for the moment, I’m a Pat Ward fan. Satisfying to see a 64-yr old woman lower the boom on a younger bully like Mullen — you don’t see that often enough in politics. His ass got kicked, although I have to thank his campaign for that wildly entertaining “newspaper.” Sorry, I think Ward will win the GE, and those who had hoped for Pastor Crazy to run against, the voting public has a short memory span. There weren’t that many people paying attention in the primary, and look at how quickly the public has forgotten the presidential GOP clown show. Special bonus fun: Ward winning Dallas County.

    (4) Speaking of the women’s hall of fame, give it up for Jane Jech. I admit: I snickered when she pointed to right field and cried out “Santorum!” Back in January, she attended some sort of bipartisan women-in-politics workshop. Perhaps she learned a thing or two. She gives credence to “if you don’t succeed the first time, …”

    McKibben — did not have a web site or campaign. Clearly too confident, as was Branstad, who overestimated his charms when it came to the voters of Marshall, Tama and Black Hawk Counties, LOL. Lesson learned: even old-tyme establishment pols need to do a little work here and there.

    (5) HD50 – We’ll never know, but did Grassley win the sympathy of voters in reaction to mean-sprited advertising and a negative reaction to “shadowy” groups? Memo to operatives who like to hide behind fronts for anonymous donors: overkill for a house race in farming communities.

    I think Grassley would have won regardless, given the goodwill Grassley Sr has earned over the years, and the chits he has to spare. But it’s got to hurt for Sweeney to see how Grassley even cut into her Hardin County base. There’s a reason her team went on the attack in the first place, which comes down to “hard to run against a Grassley.”

    So where will Sweeney land up? Branstad admin? Farm Bureau? AFF?

    (6) Helland vs Highfill — in addition to district-specific issues, I did notice after the GOP caucus that liberty/freedom/Ron Paul! support was most prevalent in blue areas (Fairfield, Iowa City, Dubuque for example) followed by affluent exurbs. In short, I think the longer-term impact of these folks will be to keep Braley sharp and to continue to enjoy some success in areas like Grimes, Bondurant, Johnston, and let’s not forget Kent Sorenson, the original issue, in Warren County. I also suspect some cooperation w/ establishment types in SD22 to keep the volume on mute. They do have donations to the RPI to think about …

  • Iowa Senate District 6

    Results (my 6/3 prediction in parentheses.)

    Mark Segebart – 47 (43)

    Adam Schweers – 40 (47)

    Matthew Biede – 13 (10)

    Schweers carried Carroll County but Segebart won decisively in Buena Vista, Sac, Crawford and Audubon counties. Schweers was recruited and endorsed by Branstad and former Carroll state rep Rod Roberts. Branstad’s endorsement didn’t help in this district or in senate districts 4 and 36 where His choices also lost. He did back the winners in districts 14 and 22.

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