Enter Bleeding Heartland's 2018 Iowa primary election prediction contest

Has Iowa ever had a primary season more eventful than this year’s? It’s time for politics-watchers to take a stab at predicting the results of next Tuesday’s elections.

No cash or other prizes are at stake, just bragging rights in the Bleeding Heartland community. No doubt 2016 primary election contest winner Josh Hughes will want to defend his title. Perhaps ModerateIADem, winner of the 2010 and 2012 primary election contests, will try for a comeback.

Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. Just post a comment in this thread with your answers to the following ten questions sometime before 7 am central time on Tuesday, June 5.

Only comments posted in this thread will be valid contest entries. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on Facebook or Twitter will not be considered. You need a Bleeding Heartland account in order to post comments here. If you don’t already have one, send me an e-mail and I will set one up for you.

Comments cannot be edited after they have been posted on this site. It’s fine to change your mind about some or all of your answers, though, as long as you post a new comment with your revised predictions before the deadline.

Please try to answer every question, even if it’s just a wild guess. We’re all guessing anyway, since no polls are publicly available for most of these races.

1. How many Iowa Democrats will cast ballots in the gubernatorial primary?

For reference: 148,751 people voted in the last competitive Democratic race for Iowa governor in 2006.

2. What percentage of the vote will each of the six Democratic candidates for governor receive in the primary?

Despite the events of last week, all of these candidates will be listed on the ballot: Nate Boulton, Cathy Glasson, Fred Hubbell, Andy McGuire, John Norris, Ross Wilburn.

3. What percentage of the vote will Abby Finkenauer, Thomas Heckroth, George Ramsey III, and Courtney Rowe receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district?

4. What percentage of the vote will Christopher Peters and Ginny Caligiuri receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s second Congressional district?

Remember, the GOP ballot will list only Peters. Caligiuri is running a write-in campaign.

5. What percentage of the vote will Cindy Axne, Pete D’Alessandro, and Eddie Mauro receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district?

6. What percentage of the vote will Leann Jacobsen, John Paschen, and J.D. Scholten receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s fourth Congressional district?

7. What percentage of the vote will Deidre DeJear and Jim Mowrer receive in the Democratic primary for secretary of state?

8. Who will be the highest vote-getter in the Republican primary for secretary of agriculture, and what percentage of the vote will that candidate receive?

These five candidates will appear on the GOP primary ballot: Ray Gaesser, Chad Ingels, Craig Lang, Mike Naig, Dan Zumbach. According to a poll The Iowa Republican blog commissioned in mid-May, more than two-thirds of respondents didn’t know enough about any of the candidates to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them.

9. What percentage of the vote will Ed Malloy and Mary Stewart receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa Senate district 41?

This southeast Iowa district, where Republican Senator Mark Chelgren is retiring, includes Ottumwa and Fairfield. Bleeding Heartland posted background on the candidates here. According to Josh Hughes, absentee ballots returned from “the Fairfield/rural side of SD 41 surpassed those returned from the Ottumwa side” on May 31.

10. What percentage of the vote will John Mauro and Matt McCoy receive in the Democratic primary for Polk County Supervisor District 5?

Mauro’s the longtime incumbent on the board of supervisors. McCoy is the longtime state senator challenging him.

  • Guess

    Well I am guessing statewide turnout will be low. My guess: 136,212.

    Totals from all votes for governor: Fred Hubbell- 32% Nate Boulton- 20% Cathy Glasson- 18% John Norris- 18% Andy McGuire- 5% Ross Wilburn- 7%

    * At convention I say Norris wins.

    I live in Bettendorf so I’m in Loebsack’s district. But for Iowa 1, I say: Finkenauer- 60% Heckroth- 30% Ramsey- 7% and Rowe- 3%.

    Iowa 3: I have no idea…again…maybe 30% Axne, 35% Delassandro, and 35% Mauro?

    Iowa 2 Republicans: Peters- 80% Caliguri- 20%

    Iowa 4: Scholten- 60% Paschen-25% Jacobsen- 15%

    SOS: DeJear- 70% Mowrer- 30%

    SoA: Gaesser

    Fairfield: Malloy-60% Stewart- 40%

    Polk County: Mauro- 53% McCoy-47%

  • My Predictions

    1. 151,585
    2. Hubbell, 33%; Norris, 25%; Glasson, 23%; McGuire, 8%; Boulton, 6%; Wilburn, 5%.
    3. Finkenauer, 41%; Heckroth, 35%; Ramsey, 21%; Rowe, 3%.
    4. Peters, 85%; Caligiuri, 15%.
    5. Mauro, 37%; Axne, 35%; D’Alessandro, 28%.
    6. Scholton, 41%; Jacobson, 35%; Paschen, 24%.
    7. DeJear, 55%; Mowrer, 45%.
    8. Naig, 25%.
    9. Malloy, 61%; Stewart, 39%.
    10. McCoy, 53%; Mauro, 47%.

  • 2018 primary guess

    1. 151,397
    2. Fred Hubbell 37%, John Norris 19%, Cathy Classon 16%, Andy McGuire 15%, Nate Boulton 10%, Ross Wilburn 3%
    3. Abby Finkennaur 50%, Thomas Heckroth 35%, George Ramsey 13%, Courtney Rowe 2%.
    4. Christopher Peters 65%, Ginny Caligiuri 34%, other 1%- Caligiuri wins Mahaska Co.
    5. Cindy Axne 36%, Eddie Mauro 34%, Pete D’Alessandro 30%
    6. J.D. Scholten 45%, Leann Jacobsen 40%, John Paschen 15%
    7. Deidre DeJear 55%, Jim Mowrer 45%
    8. Dan Zumbach 21%
    9. Ed Malloy 56%, Mary Stewart 44%
    10. John Mauro 50.1%, Matt McCoy 49.9%

  • Prediction

    1. 135,856
    2. Hubbell, 33%; Norris, 25%; Glasson, 23%; McGuire, 8%; Boulton, 6%; Wilburn, 5%.
    3. Finkenauer, 47%; Heckroth, 43%; Ramsey, 7%; Rowe, 3%.
    4. Peters, 80%
    2. Hubbell, 36%; Norris, 25%; Glasson, 21%; McGuire, 6%; Boulton, 6%; Wilburn, 3%.
    3. Finkenauer, 45%; Heckroth, 40%; Ramsey, 13%; Rowe, 2%.
    4. Peters, 85%; Caligiuri, 15%.
    5. Mauro, 37%; Axne, 32%; D’Alessandro, 31%.
    6. Scholton, 41%; Jacobson, 35%; Paschen, 24%.
    7. DeJear, 55%; Mowrer, 45%.
    8. Naig, 25%.
    9. Malloy, 61%; Stewart, 39%.
    10. McCoy, 53%; Mauro, 47%., 15%.
    5. Mauro, 37%; Axne, 35%; D’Alessandro, 28%.
    6. Scholton, 40%; Jacobson, 35%; Paschen, 25%.
    7. DeJear, 65%; Mowrer, 35%.
    8. Naig, 18%.
    9. Malloy, 68%; Stewart, 32%.
    10. McCoy, 53%; Mauro, 47%.

  • zeit-guess

    1. Since it doesn’t appear to be Price is Right rules (“… without going over”), I’ll be optimistic and say 158,000.

    2. The tough part is knowing how many Nate votes were baked in. Here we go:

    Hubbell — 34; Norris – 23; Glasson – 20; Boulton – 11; McGuire – 8; Wilburn – 4 (Norris wins at convention)

    3. CD-1: Finkenauer – 48; Heckroth – 38; Ramsey – 10; Rowe – 4

    4. CD-2: Peters — 90; Caliguri – 10

    5. CD-3: Axne – 39; Mauro – 35; D’Alessandro – 26

    6. CD-4: Scholten — 45; Jacobsen – 33; Paschen – 22 (predicting Leann losing hurts.)

    7. SoS: DeJear — 58; Mowrer — 42

    8. Lang — 28; Naig wins at convention.

    9. Malloy – 57; Stewart – 43

    10. McCoy – 51; Mauro – 49

    • correct

      I forgot to specify that this time. We don’t play by The Price is Right rules. The winner will be the person whose guess is closest to the actual turnout number. There is no penalty for being over.

  • This is fascinating.,

    I just want to react. Everyone says DeJear will beat Mowrer even though he was endorsed long ago by every Dem in the book. What am I missing here, (as I myself prepare to vote for DeJear)?

    Everyone has Boulton’s vote too high. There weren’t that many absentees cast before he withdrew. Let’s say he gets 3%.

    I’,m glad everyone calls Scholten the winner. He’s the best candidate we have had against KKKing since that cuss got in office.

    • Nate's Numbers

      It isn’t just the early voters, though. You’ll have some fairly low information voters that don’t realize he has actually dropped out (seriously. if you’ve been doing any canvassing or calling, you know this is possible.) And you’ll have some hardcores who think he shouldn’t have dropped who vote for him anyway as a form of protest. Between the three, it will add up a bit. I may have him too high at 11, but he’ll do better than low single digits.

      • I agree with zeitgeist

        I haven’t finalized my predictions yet but I think Nate Boulton will get about 10 percent, based on people who voted before he dropped out and people who don’t know he dropped out.

    • actually many have endorsed DeJear

      Mowrer did get a lot of early endorsements, but DeJear’s mailing lists a lot of well-known supporters: Sally Pederson, 17 Iowa House Democrats, nine Senate Democrats, a half dozen former lawmakers, a bunch of county elected officials, AFSCME, SEIU, NARAL, EMILY’s List, etc.

  • Also fascinated

    I have not been following polls carefully, but last time I checked, Norris seemed to be in the single digits. These predictions show him doing a lot better.

  • Predictions

    1. 151,000

    2. Hubbell-37 Glasson-23 Norris-18 McGuire-12 Boulton-5 Wilburn-5

    3. Abby-48 Heckroth-43 Ramsey-6 Rowe-3

    4. Peters-93 Calguiri-7

    5. Axne-43 Mauro-38 Pete-19

    6. Schotten-43 Jacobsen-36 Paschen-21

    7. Mowrer-55 DeJear-45

    8. You assume Lang if people are voting on an agricultural background-30

    9. Malloy-58 Stewart-42

    10. McCoy-53 Mauro-47

  • Miketram

    1 180,000

    2 Boulton 5, Glasson 23, Hubbell 32, Norris 27, McGuire 8, Wilburn 5

    3 Finkenauer 43, Heckroth 44, Ramsey 8, Rowe 5

    4 Caliguiri 49, Peters 51

    5 Axne 45, D’Alessandro 25, Mauro 30

    6 Jacobsen 20, Paschen 30, Scholten 50

    7 DeJear 55, Mower 45

    8 Naig 33

    9 Stewart 52, Malloy 48

    10 Mauro, 48, McCoy 52

  • Predictions

    1. 167,478 total votes cast
    2. Hubbell 38, Norris 22, Glasson 18, McGuire 10, Boulton 8, Wilburn 4.
    3. Finkenauer 65, Heckroth 25, Ramsey 6, Rowe 4
    4. Peters 90, Caligiuri 10
    5. Axne 40, Mauro 38, D’Alessandro 22
    6. Schalten 60, Paschen 22, Jacobsen 18
    7. 52-48 DeJear
    8. Lang, 25
    9. Stewart 51-49
    10. McCoy 53-47

  • I'm guessing not many races end up being that close

    1. 152,000

    2. Hub 43 % Norris 18% Glass 18% Andy 9% Nate 7% Ross 5%

    3. Abby 77% Heckroth 19% Rowe 1% Ramsey 3%

    4. Peters 96% Caligiuri 4%

    5. Axne 45% Mauro 38% D’lessandro 17%

    6. Scholten 60% Jacobsen 34% Paschen 6%

    7 Mowrer 57% Dejear 43%

    8. Naig 44% Gaesser 34% Lang 17% Ingels 5%

    9. Ed Malloy 63% Mary Stewart 37%

    10. McCoy 56% Mauro 44%

  • Hopeful yet realistic

    1. 154,567

    2. Hub 34 % Norris 28% Glass 23% Andy 7% Nate 5% Ross 3%

    3. Abby 63% Heckroth 27% Ramsey: 8% Rowe: 2%

    4. Peters 89% Caligiuri 11%

    5. Axne 42% Mauro 39% D’lessandro 19%

    6. Scholten 57% Jacobsen 30% Paschen 13%

    7 Dejear 54% Mowrer 46%

    8. Zumback 340% Naig 30% Gaesser 20% Lang 12% Ingels 4%

    9. Malloy 55% Stewart 45%

    10. Mauro 51% McCoy 49%

  • predictions

    1. Democratic primary turnout: 154,500

    2. Hubbell 45 percent, Norris 21 percent, Glasson 15 percent, Boulton 10 percent, McGuire 8 percent, Wilburn 1 percent

    3. Finkenauer 51 percent, Heckroth 30 percent, Ramsey 10 percent, Rowe 9 percent

    4. Although low GOP primary turnout theoretically creates good conditions for a write-in candidate, I’m not a believer. Peters 72 percent, Caligiuri 28 percent.

    5. Axne 42 percent, Mauro 30 percent, D’Alessandro 28 percent

    6. Scholten 48 percent, Jacobsen 32 percent, Paschen 20 percent

    7. Mowrer 55 percent, DeJear 45 percent

    8. Zumbach 32 percent

    9. Stewart 54 percent, Malloy 46 percent

    10. This was the hardest one for me to decide. I’ve changed my mind several times. Final guess: McCoy 51, Mauro 49.

  • David Osterberg

    1. Democratic primary turnout: 160,000

    2. Hubbell 48 percent, Norris 14 percent, Glasson 21 percent, Boulton 8 percent, McGuire 7 percent, Wilburn 2 percent

    3. Finkenauer 52 percent, Heckroth 32 percent, Ramsey 10 percent, Rowe 6 percent

    4. Peters 75 percent, Caligiuri 25 percent.

    5. Axne 44 percent, Mauro 38 percent, D’Alessandro 18 percent

    6. Scholten 50 percent, Jacobsen 25 percent, Paschen 25 percent

    7. Mowrer 49 percent, DeJear 51 percent

    8. Zumback 33% Naig 30% Gaesser 15 % Lang 20% Ingels 2%

    9. Stewart 48 percent, Malloy 52 percent

    10. McCoy 54, Mauro 46

  • Election Contest

    1. 154,281

    2. Fred 39% Glasson 26% Norris 20% Nate 9% Andy 5% Ross 1%

    3. Abby 50% Heck 30% Rowe 15% Ramsey 5%

    4. Peters 85% Cal 15%

    5. Cindy 38% Mauro 35% Pete 27%

    6. JD 45% Paschen 35% Leann 20%

    7. DeJear 53% Mowrer 47%

    8. Lang 35% Zumbach 25% Gaesser 20% Ingels 10% Naig 10%

    9. Stewart 52% Malloy 48%

    10. Mauro 52% McCoy 48%

    BONUS PICK FOR FUN: Ryan 52% Celsi 48%

  • Darts

    1. 182000.

    2. Nate Boulton 5, Cathy Glasson 18, Fred Hubbell 38, Andy McGuire 7, John Norris 20, Ross Wilburn 2.

    3. Abby Finkenauer 40, Thomas Heckroth 32, George Ramsey III 5, and Courtney Rowe 23.

    4. Christopher Peters 97, Ginny Caligiuri 3.

    7. Deidre DeJear 51, Jim Mowrer 49.

    8. Naig, 32.

    9. Ed Malloy 59, Mary Stewart 41.

    10. John Mauro 44, Matt McCoy 56.

  • Primary Predictions

    1. 157,500

    2. Hubbell 47, Glasson 20 Norris 21 Boulton 5 McGuire 6 Wilburn 1

    3. Finkenauer 55 Heckroth 31 Ramsey 9 Rowe 5

    4. Peters 65 Caliguri 35

    5. Cindy Axne 36%, Eddie Mauro 4034%, Pete D’Alessandro 24%

    6 J.D. Scholten 55%, Leann Jacobsen 45%, John Paschen 10%

    7. Mowrer 57 Dejear 43

    8. Lang 30

    9. Malloy 58 Stewart 42

    10. Mauro 52 McCoy 48

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