The stakes are unusually high for the August 26 special election in Iowa Senate district 1. If Republican Christopher Prosch wins the race to succeed former State Senator Rocky De Witt, who died of cancer in June, the GOP will hold 34 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats for next year’s legislative session. That would give Republicans the two-thirds majority they need to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees with no Democratic support.

If Democrat Catelin Drey flips the seat, the Republican majority in the chamber will shrink to 33-17, allowing Senate Democrats to block some of the governor’s worst appointees.

Equally important, a win in red-trending Woodbury County could help Democrats recruit more challengers for the 2026 legislative races, and could inspire more progressives to run in this November’s nonpartisan elections for city offices and school boards.

Although Donald Trump comfortably carried Senate district 1 in the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have grounds to be optimistic going into Tuesday’s election.

A SWING DISTRICT THAT HAS TRENDED REPUBLICAN

Iowa Senate district 1 covers most of Sioux City (other than the Morningside area on the south side) and some other parts of Woodbury County, including the small town of Lawton:

Voter registration totals favor the GOP. According to the latest official figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, Senate district 1 contains 7,364 active registered Democrats, 8,996 Republicans, 6,888 no-party voters, and 239 voters with some other affiliation (mostly Libertarians). The disparity among total registered voters (including “inactive” ones who did not participate in the 2024 general election) is smaller: 9,832 registered Democrats, 10,703 Republicans, 10,921 no-party voters, and 343 “other.”

Recent voting history also favors the GOP. Republican Rick Bertrand won elections in 2010 and 2014 in the Iowa Senate district covering most of Sioux City. He lost his 2018 re-election bid to Democrat Jackie Smith, but she lost the 2022 election to De Witt by 7,700 votes to 6,256 (55.1 percent to 44.7 percent), following an expensive campaign.

Residents of the precincts now part of Senate district 1 preferred Donald Trump to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election by 50.4 percent to 47.6 percent. Trump’s margin of victory here widened in 2024; the Republican received 54.7 percent of the presidential vote to 43.4 percent for Kamala Harris.

That backdrop doesn’t sound promising. But Democratic candidates have overperformed in all three of this year’s special Iowa legislative elections:

• In January, Mike Zimmer won by 3.6 points in Senate district 35, which Trump had carried by 21 points in November.
• In March, Nannette Griffin lost by 3.2 points in House district 100, which Trump had carried by 27 points in November.
• In April, Angel Ramirez won by 58 points in House district 78, which Harris had carried by 34.5 points in November.

A low-turnout environment favors the party whose base is more angry. The Trump administration’s ongoing abuses of power are giving Democrats lots of motivation, compounded by the Republican-controlled Congress voting to cut Medicaid and food assistance while the wealthy get huge tax cuts.

So Senate district 1 should be winnable with a good candidate and a strong ground game. Democrats have both.

“WHEN YOU NEED A MESS CLEANED UP, YOU SEND MOM”

Drey is a first-time candidate but not new to political activism. Having grown up in South Dakota, she fell in love with Sioux City while attending Morningside College (now Morningside University). Once she and her husband settled in Sioux City, she became involved with several community organizations.

As a young mother, Drey often called or wrote to elected officials about various issues. About two years ago, she started the Moms for Iowa community on Instagram, which was modeled on similar groups in other states. The main goal was to make it easier for like-minded moms to contact policy makers about topics that matter to them.

Drey became more involved with Woodbury County Democrats around the same time. An extrovert by nature, she knocked 977 doors as a volunteer during the 2024 campaign. (She wishes she had hit 1,000!)

As a candidate, the Democrat is leaning heavily into her values, priorities, and experience as a mom. Her main slogan is “Iowa’s Senate needs more moms.” She has highlighted issues of particular importance to young parents: affordable housing, child care, and health care, strong public schools, and bodily autonomy.

One of Drey’s digital ads focuses on public education. My transcript:

I’m Catelin Drey, a mom who like every parent wants to give my daughter the best opportunity at a bright future. And that starts with strong public schools.

Across Iowa, teachers stand in the gap between our students and the GOP’s chronic underfunding of public education. They shouldn’t have to rely on GoFundMe’s just to do their jobs.

We can do better. As senator, I will fight to make sure that students and teachers have everything they need to be successful.

I hope to earn your vote in the special election on August 26.

Drey told Iowa Starting Line’s Zachary Oren Smith, “When you need a mess cleaned up, you send mom.” Moms are used to multitasking and taking care of everyone’s needs, and “We do not have time to mess around.”

You can learn more about Drey from my conversation with her in July:

Republicans didn’t put their best foot forward for this race.

A NEWCOMER TO IOWA WITH EXTREME VIEWS

I was surprised Republicans chose Prosch at their special convention in early July, instead of Woodbury County Supervisor Dan Bittinger, who also competed for the nomination. Normally, you’d want to field an experienced candidate with deeper roots in the community.

Prosch has lived in Sioux City for less than four years. He grew up in South Dakota and has done more political work there than in Iowa. His public relations and media management firm, Felix Strategies, is still based in South Dakota.

As a specialist in “strategic communications for Christian conservative leaders and organizations,” Prosch has taken positions that are way outside the mainstream. Zachary Oren Smith covered some of his extreme statements on abortion, as well as his favorite conspiracy theories. Bruce Lear flagged some of Prosch’s comments promoting religious nationalism and the film “Enemies Within the Church.”

It’s never a good sign when a new candidate starts deleting social media posts—or worse, whole accounts. Prosch’s personal account on X/Twitter, @Pro1854, no longer exists.

While Prosch’s website mentions “protecting the unborn,” he has steered clear of abortion rhetoric in his paid advertising. Instead, the campaign has run ads emphasizing familiar GOP themes. In his opening spot, he talked about growing up on dairy farms and cattle ranches, then said, “I’m tired of seeing our families and our jobs forced to pull up roots for greener pastures on the other side of the river.” He promised to “work to grow job opportunities right here, by slashing red tape, eliminating the state income tax, and improving our schools.”

The Republican’s closing argument zeroed in on taxes: “Iowa’s outrageous taxes are forcing businesses and families to flee across state lines. Enough is enough. I’ll fight to reduce your tax burden and slash job-killing red tape. If you’re tired of seeing your friends and neighbors pack up and move to Nebraska or South Dakota, then I’m asking for your vote on August 26.” Prosch’s Facebook post sharing the ad went further, promising to “eliminate Iowa’s income tax.”

That’s a pipe dream. Most of the states with no income tax have either a large tourism sector (Nevada, Florida, South Dakota) or fossil fuels extraction (Alaska, Texas, Wyoming). Even if Iowans were willing to settle for roads and schools on par with South Dakota’s, we could never collect enough revenue to balance our budget without an income tax. We are already dipping into surplus and reserve funds to cover an expected revenue shortfall of $917 million in the current budget year. We certainly couldn’t eliminate the state income tax and improve schools at the same time.

I would have asked about the contradiction, but Prosch did not respond to my interview request. That wasn’t surprising—I wasn’t the only one whose questions he ducked during this short campaign.

HIDING THE BALL AND LYING ABOUT IT

Asked about the advertising attacking his opponent, Prosch told Iowa Public Radio, “We’ve both been hit pretty heavily by attack ads,” adding, “I do wish that we could just focus on policy alone.”

But like many Iowa Republican candidates and state legislators, he passed on the chance to answer questions about the issues in a public setting.

The League of Women Voters of Sioux City expressed regret in an August 11 news release that the group was “unable to hold a candidate forum” for the special election.

We reached out to both candidates and Catelin Drey responded that she was willing to participate, but we did not hear back from Christopher Prosch. We made several attempts to contact him through phone and email. Since we are a non-partisan organization and do not endorse candidates, we did not feel we could move forward with a single candidate.

Sheila Brummer gave the episode the “both sides” treatment in her story for Iowa Public Radio:

Prosch said the date proposed did not work for his schedule.

“We have state officials and majority leaders coming in on the day of the proposed forum,” Prosch said. “Honestly, my schedule is just jam-packed, to be honest with you. But, I welcomed other dates.”

Officials with the League of Women Voters of Sioux City countered Prosch’s statement about the forum. They said no specific date was mentioned for the political event.

I was able to review emails the local League of Women Voters leaders sent Prosch on July 15 and July 20, asking if he was interested in participating in a forum. (The group also reached out to State Representative Bob Henderson, who represents half of Senate district 1 in the Iowa House, seeking contact information for Prosch.) None of those communications named a date for the event. There was no reply.

A follow-up email to Prosch on July 21 said the group had confirmed they could hold a forum at Western Iowa Tech Community College: “We just need to schedule the date that works for both candidates and WIT. Please let me know the dates that would work for you. We would like to have this scheduled between August 6 and August 15.” No reply.

Prosch’s campaign website declares, “His Christian faith is the cornerstone of his life and is paramount in his decision-making.” He should brush up on not bearing false witness. That could be challenging, though, since he has spent years spreading lies about the 2020 presidential election and other conspiracy theories on his social media.

Not to mention the lies his campaign and the Iowa GOP have been telling about Drey.

REPUBLICANS LEAN ON FAMILIAR ATTACKS

Prosch’s campaign and the GOP have spent heavily on direct mail and digital and television advertising featuring an old picture of Drey sporting pink hair. My transcript of one 30-second spot:

What planet is Catelin Drey from? It can’t be the real world, because she wants to let illegal aliens vote in our elections, stealing our rights as Americans to determine our leaders, and giving it to those in our country illegally.

Think that’s far out? It gets worse. Kooky Catelin Drey wants to end the deportation of criminal illegal aliens and stop funding for the border patrol. Open borders, voting rights for illegal aliens. Caitlyn Drey—too far out for Iowa.

These are all lies, of course. The “sources” cited (in small print that’s difficult to read near the bottom of the frame) are Moms for Iowa posts criticizing acts by the Trump administration or Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate. Drey hasn’t advocated for illegal voting or “open borders.”

Prosch told Iowa Public Radio, “When it comes to PACs or even party politics, both parties run what they want to run […] I have not publicly made any comments negatively about her [Drey].” Wrong again: Prosch authorized all advertising the Republican Party of Iowa funded for this race.

And Facebook’s ad library shows the Prosch for Iowa Senate page is paying for a 15-second version of one attack ad, being pushed to Facebook users with the comment “Catelin Drey is too far out for Iowa! Learn more at https://dreyforillegals.com“

In response to the “open borders” attacks, Democrats cut a digital and TV ad featuring Drey speaking to the camera. My transcript:

[Drey looks at image of Republican ad, then laughs and looks at camera]: Why are politicians so obsessed with me? I think I looked great with pink hair, but the upkeep was exhausting.

But seriously: I’m a working mom, a proud Sioux Citian, and I’m ready to be your voice in the Iowa Senate. My “kooky ideas” (uses hands to make air quotes) are fully funding our public schools, making housing and child care more affordable, and putting more money back in the pockets of working Iowans.

I’m Catelin Drey, running for the Iowa Senate, and I hope to earn your vote by August 26.

“SOMETHING WENT WRONG”

The Iowa Democratic Party is also funding a digital and TV ad that could be used with minor alterations in many state legislative races next year. “Something Went Wrong” features a male narrator. My transcript:

For eight years, Republicans have had control of Iowa, promising to improve the lives of all Iowans. [footage of state capitol dome]

Something went wrong. [words “Something went wrong” appear on screen]

Something went wrong for business. Something went wrong for our health. Something went wrong for our kids. Something went wrong for our economy. [visual shows news headlines about Iowa’s brain drain, rising cancer rate, declining schools, and worst economy in the country]

Something went wrong. [Screenshot of page on X/Twitter that used to be Christopher Prosch’s feed. It’s empty and the platform’s message says “Something went wrong. Try again”]

We don’t need another political operative who scrubbed their social media of their real beliefs. [view pans over Des Moines and state capitol dome]

Let’s send a mom to clean up the mess. [footage of Drey walking with her husband and daughter, then this banner with paid for message and “Vote by August 26.”]

Both parties are spending more on this race than they did before the special election Democrat Mike Zimmer won in Senate district 35.

DREY RAISING MORE, DEMOCRATS SPENDING MORE

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has spotlighted Drey’s race, and progressive individuals and groups from around the country have featured the special election. That partly explains how Drey raised $163,384.65 in a little more than six weeks. Her list of contributions, mostly from small-dollar donors, runs for 234 pages.

Prosch reported raising just over $20,000 during the same period, of which $7,804 came from the candidate or members of his family. He needed less than two and a half pages to list all of his campaign contributions.

In battleground Iowa legislative races, the two major political parties typically account for most of the spending, in the form of in-kind contributions. As of mid-August, Prosch’s campaign had spent a little more than $18,000, mostly on staff salaries and reimbursing door-knockers. Meanwhile the Republican Party of Iowa spent just over $160,000 to boost their candidate, paying for campaign literature and all forms of advertising, from digital and text messages to direct mail and radio and television commercials.

Drey’s campaign reported spending around $75,000 on everything from campaign signs and merchandise to billboards, digital, radio, and television advertising. Sioux City has a large Latino population, and I noticed a small expenditure for remastering Drey’s TV and radio spots with Spanish audio—something I don’t recall seeing on an Iowa legislative candidate’s filing before.

The Democrat received nearly $95,000 in in-kind donations, with the Iowa Democratic Party contributing around $80,000 for ad buys and nearly $8,000 for other expenditures such as printing and postage.

A MASSIVE VOLUNTEER EFFORT

Prosch has said ten Republican state senators, along with Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer, have come to Woodbury County to volunteer. Prosch claimed on August 16 that “my team and I have knocked on more than 14,000 doors […].” I can’t independently confirm that number. Sometimes Iowa GOP candidates conflate “knocking doors” with a lit drop—that is, leaving campaign literature on a doorstep without attempting to engage the voter in conversation.

As is often the case in Iowa campaigns, the Republican effort relies partly on paid canvassers (“reimburse for door knockers”). Drey’s campaign finance report doesn’t indicate any spending on paid canvassing.

Democrats haven’t released a total number of doors knocked or other details about the voters they are targeting. Numerous social media posts show quite a few volunteers hitting the streets, as well as the candidate.

State Representative J.D. Scholten, who represents the west side of Sioux City (half of Senate district 1) in the Iowa House, has kicked off a couple of canvasses for Drey. He posted this photo of the locals and out-of-towners before everyone set out to knock doors on August 23. Dozens of volunteers pictured here took a bus from Polk County (Des Moines area) for the day. They lucked out with the weather, as the heat finally broke late this week.

Several other Democratic state legislators or politicians have made at least one trip to help Drey’s campaign. State Senator and U.S. Senate candidate Zach Wahls headlined an event for Drey on August 23. Fellow U.S. Senate candidate Nathan Sage is kicking off the canvass on August 24. State Representative Josh Turek, who is also running for U.S. Senate, is scheduled to be in Sioux City on August 25.

This work is essential, because it’s challenging to get voters to tune into politics during vacation season. In addition, Sioux City has traditionally had low voter engagement, compared to other parts of Iowa.

EARLY VOTES BANKED SO FAR

Official figures show that Senate district 1 is dead last among Iowa’s 50 state Senate districts in terms of total registered voters. Only Senate district 17 (covering several neighborhoods in the urban core of Des Moines) comes close.

Why are fewer people registered to vote here, compared to other Senate districts with roughly equal populations? Sioux City residents include many immigrants, who are not eligible to vote, and many people living in poverty, who are less likely to participate in elections than citizens with higher incomes.

For as long as I’ve closely followed Iowa legislative races, turnout in Sioux City has been on the low side. Only about 14,000 voters cast ballots in the November 2022 election for Senate district 1, when De Witt defeated Smith. Some of that year’s competitive Iowa Senate races saw twice as many voters participate.

Woodbury County Auditor Michelle Skaff provided Bleeding Heartland with an early vote breakdown at the end of the day on August 23. A total of 2,900 voters in Senate district 1 had cast ballots: 1,401 Democrats, 1,200 Republicans, 287 no-party voters, and twelve with some other registration (probably Libertarians).

Those numbers include mailed ballots received by the auditor and early ballots cast in person, either in the county elections office or in a satellite location. The two early voting sites that were open in Sioux City on August 23 were both “very busy,” according to staff in the auditor’s office.

Knowing a voter’s party affiliation doesn’t tell us how the person voted. Iowa Democrats have done well lately targeting no-party voters for special elections; if that’s true here, it would be good news for Drey.

The Woodbury County Auditor’s office told me another 102 Democrats, 110 Republicans, five no-party voters, and one person with some other registration requested absentee ballots for the special election, but had not returned them as of August 23. In order to be counted, ballots must be received in the auditor’s office by 8:00 PM on August 26. Anyone who still has a ballot should hand-deliver it. (There is no functional drop box in the county anymore.)

Total turnout for the January special election in Iowa Senate district 35 was about 38 percent of the 2022 general election turnout in that district. If the same holds true for Senate district 1, we would expect around 5,320 voters to cast a ballot for Drey or Prosch, including both early and election-day voters.

With 2,900 votes already banked and Sioux City public schools back in session beginning August 25, turnout on Tuesday could be strong. In recent years, Iowa Republicans have often done better than Democrats with election day GOTV. However, Zimmer carried the election day vote in Senate district 35 this January. So there’s no guarantee Prosch will make up ground on August 26.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

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Top photo of Catelin Drey provided by the candidate. Top photo of Christopher Prosch is a screenshot from his final ad of the special election campaign.