Editor’s note: This analysis has been updated with unofficial results from all the races. Original post follows.
The major parties have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the most competitive 2022 Iowa House and Senate races.
This post highlights seven state Senate districts where one or both parties have spent large sums, and another seven where even without a big investment by Democrats or Republicans, the results could shed light on political trends.
All voter registration totals listed below come from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, as reported on November 1. All absentee ballot figures come from the Secretary of State’s office, as reported on November 7. All past election results come from the map Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.
All figures for in-kind spending by the Iowa Democratic Party or Republican Party of Iowa come from filings with the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. I focus on in-kind spending, because candidates in battleground Iowa legislative races typically give most of their funds to the state party. The party then covers the bulk of the large expenditures for direct mail and/or television, radio, and digital advertising.
THE BIG PICTURE
Republicans currently hold 32 Iowa Senate seats, and Democrats hold eighteen. Although Democrats do not have a realistic chance to win back the majority this cycle, they could increase their numbers and build toward the future.
Conversely, a red wave could expand Republicans ranks to 34 or more seats, a two-thirds majority that would allow the GOP to rubber stamp all of Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees, if Reynolds is re-elected. Democrats confirm the vast majority of the governor’s appointees, but have blocked a handful of Reynolds’ picks each of the last five years.
In most general elections, only 25 Iowa Senate seats are on the ballot. This year, Iowans will elect state senators in 34 districts. Candidates are running in all 25 odd-numbered Senate districts plus nine even-numbered ones, for various reasons due to redistricting following the 2020 census.
The winners of the even-numbered districts will serve only two years; their seats will be on the ballot in 2024, as voters elect senators to full four-year term in all 25 even-numbered districts.
You can find the full rundown of Iowa Senate contenders on the Secretary of State’s candidate list.
Sixteen senators elected to four-year terms from even-numbered districts in 2020 are not up for re-election this year, so are guaranteed to serve in the next legislature. Twelve are Republicans: Mark Costello, Dan Dawson, Jeff Edler, Jesse Green, Dennis Guth, Mike Klimesh, Mark Lofgren, Jeff Reichman, Amy Sinclair, Jeff Taylor, Brad Zaun, and Dan Zumbach. Four are Democrats: Nate Boulton, Eric Giddens, Pam Jochum, and Janet Petersen.
Another eight Iowa Senate candidates are running unopposed. Four are Republicans: Lynn Evans (Senate district 3), Tim Kraayenbrink (Senate district 4), Dave Rowley (Senate district 5), and Kevin Alons (Senate district 7). The Democrats are Tony Bisignano (Senate district 15), Bill Dotzler (Senate district 31), Zach Wahls (Senate district 43), and Cindy Winckler (Senate district 49).
That guarantees sixteen seats for Republicans and eight for Democrats following the November election.
Another twelve candidates have opponents but are running in districts that strongly favor their own party, which I define as a district where Donald Trump or Joe Biden received more than 60 percent of the 2020 presidential vote. It would be a major upset for any of the following candidates to lose:
- Jason Schultz (R, Senate district 6)
- Tom Shipley (R, Senate district 9)
- Cherielynn Westrich (R, Senate district 13)
- Ken Rozenboom (R, Senate district 19)
- Annette Sweeney (R, Senate district 27)
- Sandy Salmon (R, Senate district 29)
- Carrie Koelker (R, Senate district 33)
- Adrian Dickey (R, Senate district 44)
- Izaah Knox (D, Senate district 17)
- Herman Quirmbach (D, Senate district 25)
- Liz Bennett (D, Senate district 39)
- Janice Weiner (D, Senate district 45)
Assuming all of those races go as expected, Republicans would hold at least 24 seats and Democrats at least twelve seats after November.
That leaves fourteen potentially competitive Senate races. The parties have not targeted all of those districts, since some lean heavily to either Democrats or Republicans. But I would hesitate to call even those races safe if a wave materializes. A handful of Iowa legislative candidates have lost in districts where their party’s presidential nominee received 55 percent of the vote in the last election.
TOP SENATE BATTLEGROUNDS: FOUR DISTRICTS
The new map created two districts where Democratic and Republican incumbents are competing against each other.
Senate district 14: Incumbents face off
I expected Senate President Jake Chapman, the chamber’s second-ranking Republican, to move to safer territory. He’s never had to compete in a district that wasn’t solid red, and the new political map gave him several potential escape hatches. But Chapman opted to stand against first-term Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott in a seat dominated by suburban areas in Dallas County.
That may prove to be a strategic error. The U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision raised the salience of reproductive rights for voters across the country. Many suburban Republicans are pro-choice, which could neutralize the GOP’s voter registration advantage in Senate district 14. As a group, independents also favor keeping abortion mostly legal.
Chapman is among Iowa’s most extreme anti-choice lawmakers. Not only was he a leading advocate for the 2018 bill that would ban most abortions after six weeks (which Governor Kim Reynolds is now trying to reinstate), he fought for “personhood” legislation that would ban abortion from conception. I expect quite a few voters who prefer Republicans for other races will hesitate to mark the box for him. Reynolds recorded a message urging support for Chapman, which has been texted to some GOP voters.
Chapman’s diatribe against the so-called “sinister agenda” of public school educators has galvanized Democratic activists. Trone Garriott has hundreds of small donors and many dedicated volunteers.
Total spending here exceeds $1 million, making the campaign one of the most expensive Iowa legislative races on record. Republicans bought seven weeks of tv ads for Chapman. Trone Garriott has been advertising on some Des Moines television stations for more than a month. Both sides have aired a mix of positive and negative ads.
Current active registered voter totals: 12,495 Democrats, 14,474 Republicans, 14,216 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Joe Biden 49.8 percent, Donald Trump 48.1 percent
2018 voting for governor: Republican Kim Reynolds 50.2 percent, Democrat Fred Hubbell 48.2 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 4,371 from Democrats, 2,922 from Republicans, 1,681 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $303,000 on Trone Garriott’s October 19 disclosure, $393,000 on the November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: Trone Garriott 15,093 votes, Chapman 14,218 (51.4 percent to 48.5 percent)
Senate district 46: Incumbents face off
This is a weird race. On paper, first-term Republican Dawn Driscoll should be strongly favored over two-term Democrat Kevin Kinney in this district, covering Iowa County, Washington County, and rural areas of Johnson County. Both Trump and Reynolds slightly outperformed their statewide results in this area. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by around 4,000.
The district where Kinney was elected in 2014 and 2018 was slightly more balanced. On the other hand, his old district included rural Keokuk County, while his new district includes Iowa County, where voters elected him to three terms on the Clear Creek Amana school board before he served in the legislature.
Kinney owns and operates a century farm in Johnson County and worked in that county’s sheriff’s office for 28 years before retiring. He’s been an active member of several organizations that skew conservative: the Iowa Farm Bureau, Knights of Columbus, and the Johnson County Cattlemen’s Association.
Kinney’s near the right end of the Iowa Senate Democratic caucus. For instance, he was one of only two Democrats in the chamber to vote for the latest Republican tax cut bill, which will create a flat income tax and greatly reduce state revenue overall. Kinney told me in March he supported the bill mostly due to provisions that exempted all retirement income and rental income for farmers from taxes. His constituents include many retired people who worked at the University of Iowa. He acknowledged that he didn’t care for a lot of the bill and would have structured it differently.
Some prominent Republicans in the area have endorsed Kinney, including outgoing State Representative Jarad Klein and Solon Mayor Steve Stange.
Republicans have spent heavily on this race, with Reynolds starring in tv and radio ads for Driscoll. The investment suggests the GOP is not confident they have locked down the race. Democrats have produced multiple tv spots for Kinney, stressing his law enforcement background and work on bipartisan legislation.
Current active registered voter totals: 11,620 Democrats, 15,605 Republicans, 12,909 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 54.3 percent, Biden 43.7 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 52.0 percent, Hubbell 45.7 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 3,462 from Democrats, 2,471 from Republicans, 1,234 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $445,000 listed on Driscoll’s October 19 disclosure, $265,000 on the November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $159,000 on Kinney’s October 19 disclosure, $291,000 on the November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: Driscoll 14,798 votes, Kinney 12,597 (54.0 percent to 46.0 percent)
Senate district 1: Democratic incumbent
First-term State Senator Jackie Smith defeated a Republican incumbent in 2018. Her district became a little more red following redistricting and now covers the north side of Sioux City and part of Woodbury County outside city limits. Neither party has a big advantage, based on voter registrations or recent election results.
Both candidates are well-known in the area. Smith is a former county supervisor as well as a sitting senator. GOP challenger Rocky De Witt serves on the board of supervisors.
Sioux City area residents don’t usually see many television commercials for legislative candidates, since most Iowa House and Senate districts in northwest Iowa are not competitive. This race is an exception, with both parties running positive and negative spots for their Senate candidates.
Current active registered voter totals: 9,524 Democrats, 9,542 Republicans, 8,076 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 50.4 percent, Biden 47.6 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 49.5 percent, Hubbell 48.2 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 2,639 from Democrats, 2,004 from Republicans, 683 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $271,000 listed on De Witt’s October 19 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $257,000 on Smith’s October 19 disclosure, $223,000 on the November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: De Witt 7,693 votes, Smith 6,254 votes (55.0 percent to 44.7 percent)
Senate district 21: Republican-held open seat
Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver, the chamber’s top-ranking Republican, didn’t want to roll the dice on seeking re-election in this swing district, covering most of Ankeny. So the GOP nominee is State Representative Mike Bousselot, who won a hard-fought September 2021 special election for an Iowa House seat. He faces Todd Brady, a first-time candidate best known for creating websites to help Iowans find COVID-19 vaccination appointments and baby formula.
The fast-growing suburb north of Des Moines has seen some costly state legislative races in 2018 and 2020. This one is more lopsided, with the GOP investing much more. Republicans went on the air seven weeks before election day and have run a combination of positive and negative ads. Democrats have bought only a little air time for Brady but have paid for extensive digital advertising, phone calls and direct mail.
Brady has a fairly large lead in votes banked.
Current active registered voter totals: 13,465 Democrats, 14,875 Republicans, 13,359 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Biden 49.1 percent, Trump 48.6 percent
2018 voting for governor: Hubbell 49.5 percent, Reynolds 48.6 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 5,094 from Democrats, 2,277 from Republicans, 1,672 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $392,000 listed on Bousselot’s October 19 disclosure, $248,000 on the November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $93,000 on Brady’s October 19 disclosure; Brady spent another $19,250 on digital advertising from his own campaign account
Unofficial result: Bousselot 14,893 votes, Brady 14,335 (50.9 percent to 49.0 percent)
POTENTIALLY COMPETITIVE SEATS: THREE DISTRICTS
Senate district 23: Republican incumbent
Senate Majority Leader Whitver announced last year that he would seek re-election in this GOP-leaning district covering parts of Polk and Dallas counties. (His home is located in Ankeny’s Senate district 21, which split the vote for governor in 2018 and president in 2020.) His Democratic opponent is a well-liked local teacher and coach, Matt Pries.
Under Iowa law, Whitver was required to establish residence in his new district by 60 days before the general election. But as KCRG-TV’s Ethan Stein reported last month, the Grimes apartment where Whitver claims to reside “hasn’t used water since February,” according to records the tv station obtained. (Ty Rushing wrote more about those water records for Iowa Starting Line.) It appears that Whitver wanted to stay in Ankeny without the political risk of facing voters in a swing district.
I would guess that internal polling for both parties showed Whitver with a clear lead. Republicans have run a positive tv ad but didn’t feel the need to go negative.
What Democrats have spent on texting and direct mail is about equal to the $47,000 Pries’ campaign donated to the state party in September. In other words, Democratic leaders aren’t supplementing the funds available to support their candidate here like they are doing on targeted races.
Current active registered voter totals: 11,687 Democrats, 16,351 Republicans, 14,127 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 55.6 percent, Biden 42.2 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 55.1 percent, Hubbell 43.0 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 3,094 from Democrats, 1,915 from Republicans, 1,164 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $74,000 listed on Whitver’s October 19 disclosure, $47,000 on the November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $12,000 on Pries’ October 19 disclosure, $37,000 on the November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: Whitver 17,272 votes, Pries 12,156 (58.6 percent to 41.3 percent)
Senate district 41: No incumbent
Based on voter registrations and recent voting near the top of the ballot, this district looks like it should be competitive. No incumbent lives in this area, covering part of Davenport, other parts of Scott County, all of Cedar County, and a little bit of Muscatine County. The GOP nominee is Kerry Gruenhagen, a farmer and active Iowa Farm Bureau member. The Democrat is Deb VanderGaast, a registered nurse who ran a child care center for seventeen years, until it closed this year.
Republicans have paid for positive and negative tv, radio, and digital ads, and have gone negative in some of their direct mail. It’s a discouraging sign that Democrats have spent little to play for an open seat that doesn’t lean strongly in either direction.
Current active registered voter totals: 11,703 Democrats, 12,128 Republicans, 12,998 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 51.1 percent, Biden 47.0 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 49.4 percent, Hubbell 48.5 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 3,521 from Democrats, 2,276 from Republicans, 1,283 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $63,000 listed on Gruenhagen’s October 19 disclosure, $136,000 on the November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $50 for texting; VanderGaast has spent about $15,000 from her campaign account for some postcard mailing, plus digital and radio advertising
Unofficial result: Gruenhagen 13,149 votes, VanderGaast 9,409 (58.3 percent to 41.7 percent)
Senate district 47: Republican-held open seat
State Senator Roby Smith opted to run for state treasurer instead of seeking a fourth term in the legislature. So this district, covering Bettendorf and some smaller communities in Scott County, is an open seat. The Republican nominee is Scott Webster, owner of a home building and remodeling business in the Quad Cities. The Democrat is Dr. Mary Kathleen Figaro, an endocrinologist in the area.
Current active registered voter totals: 12,257 Democrats, 14,948 Republicans, 14,658 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 50.3 percent, Biden 47.7 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 52.4 percent, Hubbell 45.9 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 4,871 from Democrats, 3,758 from Republicans, 2,359 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $302,000 listed on Webster’s October 19 disclosure, $133,000 on the November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: $49,000 on Figaro’s October 19 disclosure, $50 for texting on the November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: Webster 15,481 votes, Figaro 12,020 (56.2 percent to 43.7 percent)
LIKELY HOLDS FOR ONE PARTY: SEVEN SEATS
It would be a shock for any of these districts to flip, and if any are closer than expected, that could be a canary in the coal mine moment for the favored party.
Senate district 16: Democratic incumbent
This seat is on the ballot because State Senator Claire Celsi was first elected in 2018, so her four-year term is up. Trone Garriott was also placed in this district but moved to Dallas County to take on Chapman in the new Senate district 14.
Bradley Price was the surprise winner of the GOP primary; most political observers expected Shad Clayton to win. Republican leaders aren’t doing anything to raise Price’s visibility.
I’m watching for any signs that these western suburbs of Des Moines (which have been trending blue for years) might be starting to swing back under a Democratic president.
Current active registered voter totals: 16,653 Democrats, 12,261 Republicans, 10,835 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Biden 58.6 percent, Trump 39.4 percent
2018 voting for governor: Hubbell 57.0 percent, Reynolds 41.4 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 4,765 from Democrats, 1,714 from Republicans, 1,165 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: none reported
In-kind spending by Democrats: none reported
Unofficial result: Celsi 16,260 votes, Price 11,692 (58.1 percent to 41.8 percent)
Senate district 37: Democrat favored in open seat
Two-term State Representative Molly Donahue opted to run for the Senate after she and fellow House Democrat Eric Gjerde were put in the same district on the new map. She won a hard-fought Democratic primary, highlighting that she has lived in the Cedar Rapids area for almost her whole life.
The district covering part of Cedar Rapids and the suburb of Marion shouldn’t be very competitive, but the GOP has put some money behind digital advertising and mail for its candidate, engineer Kurt Bendixen. He would need a large share of the independents to overcome the Democratic voter registration advantage.
Current active registered voter totals: 14,534 Democrats, 11,750 Republicans, 13,131 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Biden 55.4 percent, Trump 42.0 percent
2018 voting for governor: Hubbell 53.9 percent, Reynolds 43.4 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 4,484 from Democrats, 2,059 from Republicans, 1,677 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: $38,000 on Bendixen’s October 19 disclosure, $1,920 on his November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: none reported
Unofficial result: Donahue 15,029 votes, Bendixen 11,794 (56.0 percent to 43.9 percent)
Senate district 40: Democratic incumbent
State Senators Liz Mathis and Todd Taylor were both redistricted into this seat covering part of Cedar Rapids and the suburbs of Hiawatha and Robins. It didn’t matter, because months before the legislature approved the new map, Mathis had announced plans to run for Congress.
The Cedar Rapids Gazette’s editorial board endorsed GOP challenger Kris Gulick, an accountant and small business owner, and Republicans have invested a surprising amount in Gulick’s campaign, mostly digital ads and mail, with a small television buy. Democrats have spent less and stuck to digital and mail.
If this race ends up being close, that could be a sign of a red wave sweeping Iowa.
Current active registered voter totals: 15,147 Democrats, 10,756 Republicans, 12,251 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Biden 56.5 percent, Trump 40.9 percent
2018 voting for governor: Hubbell 56.1 percent, Reynolds 41.2 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 4,514 from Democrats, 1,843 from Republicans, 1,509 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $60,000 on Gulick’s October 19 disclosure, $55,000 on his November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $15,000 on Taylor’s October 19 disclosure, $26,500 on the November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: Taylor 14,072 votes, Gulick 11,672 (54.6 percent to 45.3 percent)
Senate district 11: Republican incumbent
State Senator Julian Garrett’s district became somewhat less red, losing Madison County and picking up the Knoxville area of Marion County. But Warren County has been moving away from Democrats over the past decade, leaving Garrett (a retired attorney) still heavily favored against Democratic challenger Lisa Fleishman, who works in a family-owned business.
If this race is closer than expected, it could signal that the backlash against Republicans over abortion restrictions is real.
Current active registered voter totals: 11,840 Democrats, 16,279 Republicans, 12,791 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 57.8 percent, Biden 40.0 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 52.9 percent, Hubbell 44.8 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 3,759 from Democrats, 2,716 from Republicans, 1,228 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: none reported
In-kind spending by Democrats: none reported
Unofficial result: Garrett 16,899 votes, Fleishman 10,508 (61.6 percent to 38.3 percent)
Senate district 30: Republican incumbent
Normally, State Senator Waylon Brown would not need to seek re-election this year, since he was elected to a four-year term in 2020. But Iowa’s new map placed him in the same district as Democratic State Senator Amanda Ragan of Mason City. Although she opted not to seek another term, Brown must still face the voters of Worth, Mitchell, and Cerro Gordo counties (plus a small area in Floyd) this year. The Democratic nominee is Whitney Mixdorf, a small business owner in Clear Lake.
Republicans have put some money into direct mail and digital advertising, but if they were really worried, they would have bought tv time on Mason City/Rochester, Minnesota stations.
Current active registered voter totals: 11,261 Democrats, 13,955 Republicans, 14,067 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 55.7 percent, Biden 42.5 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 53.2 percent, Hubbell 44.6 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 3,341 from Democrats, 2,521 from Republicans, 1,293 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: about $39,000 listed on Brown’s October 19 disclosure, $20,000 on the November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: about $13,000 on Mixdorf’s November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: Brown 15,283 votes, Mixdorf 10,080 (60.2 percent to 39.7 percent)
Senate district 35: Republican incumbent
It’s frustrating to see Democrats not make a serious play for this seat, given that Democrats represented Clinton County and the Maquoketa area of Jackson County in the legislature for many years.
First-term Republican Chris Cournoyer won her first legislative race in 2018, when the Senate seat became open after Rita Hart accepted the nomination for lieutenant governor. The GOP spent heavily on that race but has purchased only a little mail and digital advertising for Cournoyer’s re-election bid. Cournoyer has directed most of what she’s raised to the state party for use in other districts.
Democratic challenger Jed Ganzer is a small business owner and active member of the Davenport Education Association.
Like other areas along the Mississippi River, residents here supported Barack Obama for president twice before favoring Trump in the next two presidential elections. A closer than expected race could signal that there is hope for the pendulum to swing back.
Current active registered voter totals: 11,681 Democrats, 13,283 Republicans, 13,956 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 55.6 percent, Biden 42.3 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 50.4 percent, Hubbell 47.6 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 3,918 from Democrats, 2,324 from Republicans, 1,184 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: just under $8,000 on Cournoyer’s October 19 disclosure, $23,000 on the November 4 disclosure
In-kind spending by Democrats: none reported
Unofficial result: Cournoyer 14,542 votes, Ganzer 9,271 (61.1 percent to 38.9 percent)
Senate district 42: No incumbent
Here’s something you don’t see every election year: a labor organization (the Hawkeye Area Labor Council AFL-CIO) endorsed a Republican candidate for the Iowa legislature.
It was a perfect storm. GOP State Representative Charlie McClintock, who has been an ally to labor on a few bills and amendments, won a three-way primary for this open seat by two votes out of more than 4,000 cast.
Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Jessica Wiskus is a rural landowner and vocal opponent of the carbon pipeline projects that powerful corporations want to build across Iowa. (Always count on labor leaders to back an environmentally disastrous project that might create a few temporary construction jobs. But that’s a topic for another day.)
I’m watching to see whether either candidate outperforms their party’s baseline in this district, which includes most of Benton County and Linn County outside the Cedar Rapids metro area. That could point to crossover voting by union members or pipeline opponents who are otherwise conservative.
Current active registered voter totals: 12,093 Democrats, 14,981 Republicans, 14,837 no-party voters
2020 voting for president: Trump 56.1 percent, Biden 41.7 percent
2018 voting for governor: Reynolds 53.1 percent, Hubbell 44.2 percent
Absentee ballots received as of November 6: 2,895 from Democrats, 2,006 from Republicans, 1,125 from no-party voters
In-kind spending by Republicans: none reported
In-kind spending by Democrats: $115 on Wiskus’ October 19 disclosure, $25 on the November 4 disclosure
Unofficial result: McClintock 17,417 votes, Wiskus 11,216 (58.8 percent to 37.9 percent)