Jill Shudak is mayor of Council Bluffs.

Every election cycle, the same thing happens. Washington insiders look at Iowa from 1,100 miles away, pick the candidate who looks best on paper to them, and tell the rest of us who can and can’t win. And every cycle, Iowans are reminded that the people who’ve spent the least time in this state somehow believe they understand it best.

It’s happening again in the 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Josh Turek, the pick of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has built his entire campaign on a single argument: that he’s the most electable Democrat to take on Ashley Hinson. It’s a clean pitch. It’s also wrong.

The actual data tells a different story.

A recent poll by Echelon Insights, a Republican firm, found Zach Wahls leading Hinson by two points in a head-to-head general election matchup. Turek led Hinson by one.

And this isn’t an outlier. The ModSquad — the group of moderate Democratic senators actively supporting Turek — commissioned their own poll hoping to prove their guy was the stronger general election candidate. Their poll found Wahls trailing Hinson by three points and Turek trailing by four. Turek’s own allies, using their own pollster, could not produce a survey showing him as the more electable Democrat.

When the poll your own side commissions to make your case ends up making the opposite case, it’s time to retire the argument.

So why does D.C. keep insisting otherwise? Because Washington has a habit of being wrong about Iowa, and a stubborn refusal to learn from it. The DSCC and Chuck Schumer have a long, well-documented track record of backing the wrong horse in Democratic primaries across the country. They pick candidates who check boxes in a Washington conference room and then act surprised when Iowa voters don’t follow the script.

And guess what? We’re the ones paying the price. Republicans control the Senate, and the Democratic Party only has a narrow path back to the majority because national Democrats have written off working class voters. The 6-3 conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court – and their subsequent decisions – is a direct result of Chuck Schumer and the Washington Democrats’ failure to win elections in states like Iowa.

There is no reason — none — for Iowa Democrats to outsource their judgment to the same people who have been wrong about this state over and over again.

Which brings us to the heart of this race.

The average independent voter in Iowa hates both parties. That’s not a talking point; it’s the reality on the ground. And plenty of Democrats aren’t thrilled with the national Democratic Party either. Uncomfortable as that may be to say out loud, pretending otherwise is how you lose a Senate race before it starts.

If a Democrat is going to win this seat, the nominee has to be someone willing to stand up to the Democratic establishment, not someone handpicked by it. Someone who can look an independent voter or a frustrated Democrat in the eye and say, truthfully, that they don’t answer to Chuck Schumer or a Washington committee. Someone whose independence is real, not rehearsed.

Zach Wahls is the only Democrat in this primary doing that. He filed signatures from all 99 counties, including a meaningful share from non-Democrats. He’s built a coalition of more than 20 local unions and bipartisan elected officials — the kind of coalition you build by actually showing up, not by waiting for a D.C. committee to bless you. He’s leading in the polling that matters, against both his primary opponent and the general election opponent.

The choice in this primary isn’t complicated. Iowa Democrats can follow the same Washington playbook that has failed this state cycle after cycle. Or they can nominate the candidate the data — and Iowa itself — keeps pointing to.

Iowans over insiders. That’s how this seat gets won.

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