Jill Shudak is mayor of Council Bluffs.

Every election cycle, the same thing happens. Washington insiders look at Iowa from 1,100 miles away, pick the candidate who looks best on paper to them, and tell the rest of us who can and can’t win. And every cycle, Iowans are reminded that the people who’ve spent the least time in this state somehow believe they understand it best.

It’s happening again in the 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Josh Turek, the pick of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has built his entire campaign on a single argument: that he’s the most electable Democrat to take on Ashley Hinson. It’s a clean pitch. It’s also wrong.

The actual data tells a different story.