The Republican Governors Association jumped out the day after the primary election with a television commercial attacking State Senator Jack Hatch, the Democratic nominee against Governor Terry Branstad. I’ve posted the video and transcript after the jump, along with the Branstad campaign’s opening tv ad, touting Iowa’s “comeback” under his leadership.

It’s standard procedure for incumbents generally, and Branstad in particular, to try to define challengers before they’ve had a chance to introduce themselves to most voters. That said, this spot is also a sign that the RGA may be more concerned about Iowa than they’re letting on. I wonder whether their internal polling is showing a shrinking lead for Branstad over Hatch, as we’ve seen in several polls released in the last two months. Hatch plans to start running a biographical television commercial later this month, but he can’t match Branstad and Republican-aligned forces in money spent on advertising.

Here’s the RGA spot:

My transcript:

Female voice-over: Real estate developer Jack Hatch won’t release all of his tax returns. [Viewer sees image of house, man intended to resemble Hatch peeking out from behind window blinds; then photo of Hatch with portion of 2013 tax return visible and caption, “WILL NOT RELEASE TAX RETURNS FROM EARLIER THAN 2013.”

And Hatch doesn’t talk about his support for eminent domain. [viewer sees footage of Hatch talking, words on screen “JACK HATCH DOESN’T TALK ABOUT HIS SUPPORT FOR EMINENT DOMAIN“]

Hatch voted against protecting Iowans’ private property rights. [photo of Hatch superimposed on image of State Capitol building; words on screen JACK HATCH VOTED AGAINST IOWANS’ PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS, in very small print Iowa Senate Journal, H.F. 2351, 4/12/06]

Jack Hatch supports the government taking private property and enriching big developers like him. [animation of a bulldozer knocking down homes, labeled with words SUPPORTS EMINENT DOMAIN JACK HATCH]

Developer Jack Hatch doesn’t talk about supporting eminent domain [viewer sees footage of Hatch talking, words on screen “JACK HATCH DOESN’T TALK ABOUT SUPPORTING EMINENT DOMAIN”]

and he still won’t release all his tax returns. [Image of Hatch and papers raining down in an office, words on screen JACK HATCH WON’T RELEASE ALL HIS TAX RETURNS]

Come on, Jack–what are you hiding? [return to image of man peeking out from behind window blinds, JACK HATCH WHAT ARE YOU HIDING?]

I don’t recall ever seeing a television ad that mentions eminent domain even once, let alone repeatedly. Of course Hatch “doesn’t talk about supporting eminent domain.” No candidate talks about eminent domain, because probably more than 90 percent of voters have no idea what that phrase means. It’s unlikely ever to be a salient issue for people outside of the occasional city council or county supervisor race, where one controversial development project can affect an election.

I don’t know the context of the debate over House File 2351 from the 2006 legislative session. Sometimes I have agreed with Republican-proposed legislation on eminent domain in Iowa, because there have been abuses of the authority in my opinion. I don’t know Hatch’s reasons for not supporting that particular bill, but I do know that it’s wise for him to avoid getting lost in the weeds on this issue.

Hatch’s campaign manager says the Republican Governors Association “wasted no time releasing a false, misleading” attack, a signal Branstad’s bid for a sixth term as governor “is in real trouble.” Hatch “has never used eminent domain on a real estate project,” according to his campaign, and actually fought against a government condemnation plan to save a prominent and historic building in Des Moines.

Whereas “eminent domain” probably means nothing to most people, the concept of “hiding” information in tax returns is easy to grasp. That part of the RGA ad echoes rhetoric from the Branstad camp when the governor released his 2013 tax return.

Hinch noted it was the 24th time the five-term Republican governor and his wife have made their tax returns public.

“It’s part of his commitment to transparency and openness to Iowans,” he said. “The governor believes it is very important, paramount for public officials to act in an open and transparent manner by releasing their tax returns.” […]

The Branstad campaign was less subtle.

“What is Jack Hatch hiding and why is he so afraid of releasing his tax returns?” Branstad campaign spokesman Tommy Schultz asked.

Branstad has released 24 years of tax returns because he’s been governor or lieutenant governor for that many years. As far as I remember, during his 2010 campaign he released only the 2009 tax return–not a decade’s worth of tax returns from the years he was out of power. If I am wrong, I hope someone will show me the ten years of Branstad tax returns from 1999 through 2008.

There’s nothing shady about the 2013 tax return Hatch’s campaign released. At least he paid a decent amount in state taxes, which hasn’t always been the case for Branstad.

The worst thing for Hatch is that his campaign is low on funds to define himself, and the Democratic Governors Association doesn’t currently plan to spend any money in Iowa. Meanwhile, Branstad started the general election campaign with more than $4.5 million cash on hand and can afford to run commercials like “This Is Our Comeback” every week from now to November. Here’s the 60-second ad:

There’s no voice-over, just triumphant cinematic music playing throughout the ad. My transcript:

Words on screen against black background: IOWA THIS IS OUR COMEBACK

Music plays, viewer can hear cheering people in background, footage of Branstad shaking hands with crowd, many holding Branstad campaign signs.

Then words on screen against black background: MORE IOWANS ARE EMPLOYED THAN EVER BEFORE, numbers scroll up to 1,544,400

IOWA UNEMPLOYMENT REDUCED 30%

Brief footage of Branstad and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds talking with group of people

words on screen: IOWA’S UNEMPLOYMENT HAS GONE FROM 6.1% TO 4.3%

$8.8 BILLION IN PRIVATE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS [many specific projects listed in smaller print around screen]

brief footage of Branstad walking out of a building with a couple of other men

LARGEST TAX CUT IN IOWA HISTORY

more clips of the governor talking to people

$4.4 BILLION IN TAX SAVINGS FOR TAXPAYERS

TRANSFORMATIONAL EDUCATION REFORM

footage of the governor shaking hands with people at what looks like a parade

footage of Branstad surrounded by small children

LARGEST INVESTMENT IN IOWA SCHOOLS IN STATE HISTORY

2013, 2014 HISTORIC HIGHER EDUCATION TUITION FREEZE -FIRST TIME IN 35 YEARS

NATION’S 8TH BEST RAINY DAY FUND   THE TAX FOUNDATION

short clip of Branstad talking at a podium, Reynolds standing next to him

2ND BEST MANAGED STATE BARRON’S MAGAZINE

IOWANS‘ PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH 5TH BEST IN NATION

HEALTHIEST STATE INITIATIVE

SKILLED IOWA INITIATIVE

HOMESCHOOL FREEDOMS LAW

500 REGULATIONS ELIMINATED

7TH LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN NATION

AND WE’RE JUST GETTING STARTED

Music builds to climax, image of Branstad and Reynolds on stage with confetti raining down and crowd applauding.

Viewer sees Branstad-Reynolds campaign logo BUILDING IOWAS FUTURE to close out ad.

That looks like an effective message to me, even if the governor can’t really take credit for a lot of that news. Iowa’s economy tends to rise and fall with the national economy, and Iowa’s unemployment rate has long been one of the lowest in the country, even during the worst point in the “Great Recession.”

Some of the points relate to Branstad administration policies, but he can’t take sole credit for those either–the Iowa legislature approved most of them. Incidentally, the “largest tax cut in Iowa history” was a property tax measure that overwhelmingly benefits large commercial property owners–not small businesses or individual taxpayers. But you won’t hear that argument from Hatch, because he voted for the property tax bill during the 2013 session.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.