Former State Representative Bob Krause announced on Facebook a few minutes ago that he is withdrawing from the Iowa governor’s race after exploring a candidacy for most of 2013. He has endorsed State Senator Jack Hatch in the Democratic primary and plans to “act as a surrogate speaker and policy advisor to the Hatch campaign,” specifically helping with outreach to veterans and labor unions.

Krause also announced that he plans to run against U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley in 2016. He was one of three Democrats who challenged Grassley in 2010 and finished second in the primary with just under 13 percent of the vote. He urged Iowa Democrats “to give me the same clean shot at defeating a sitting incumbent as I am giving Jack Hatch.” I’ve posted excerpts from Krause’s Facebook post after the jump.

Krause has long been an advocate for veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, traumatic brain injury, and/or military sexual trauma. This weekend he is organizing a workshop in Urbandale on responding to military sexual trauma.  

It’s the time of year for blog posts about notable candidates and upcoming elections. Every politically engaged Iowan knows already that 2014 will be an unusually exciting year. We haven’t seen an open U.S. Senate race since 1974. The last time Iowa’s first Congressional district was open was in 2006. The last time Iowa’s third Congressional district was open was in 2002, but it wasn’t a wide open seat, since incumbent Representative Leonard Boswell moved into Polk County to run. Amazingly, 1940 was the “last time there was a Congressional race in Polk County without an incumbent seeking re-election.” All of Iowa’s statewide elected officials are up for re-election as well this year, and the secretary of state’s position may become open if Matt Schultz decides to go for the Republican nomination in IA-03.

Since Bleeding Heartland readers already know about the big Iowa races to watch, I want to focus today and tomorrow on the elections that are likely to determine control of the Iowa House and Senate in 2015 and 2016.  

Happy new year to the Bleeding Heartland community. Here’s an open thread. I’m among the minority of Iowans not watching the Outback Bowl today, but for what it’s worth, I do hope the Hawkeyes beat Louisiana State. LSU jumped out to an early lead.

Several new laws take effect in Iowa today, notably the alternative to expanding Medicaid, just approved by the federal government in mid-December. Under the plan, federal funds will cover Medicaid for Iowans earning up to 100 percent of the federal poverty level and private health insurance for Iowans with incomes between 100 and 138 percent of the federal poverty level. In theory, the Iowa Health and Wellness Plan is supposed to cover between 100,000 and 150,000 people, roughly half of our state’s uninsured population. Problems with the federal health insurance exchange website may leave a lot of people with a gap in coverage, though. The Iowa Department of Human Services has advised roughly 16,000 Iowans who applied for coverage through Healthcare.gov and may be eligible for Medicaid to apply again to the state agency. If they apply by January 31, they can get coverage retroactive to today.

Teen drivers in Iowa face new restrictions under Senate File 115, which passed both chambers with large bipartisan majorities last year. After completing driver’s ed and having an instruction permit for six months, teenagers will have an intermediate license for 12 months (extended from six months under the previous statute). Also, the teen driver’s parents have the option to limit the driver to having no more than one unrelated minor passenger in the vehicle. Rod Boshart explained more details about the new law, intended to reduce the risk of traffic accidents involving young drivers.

Boshart also reports, “Thousands of commercial property owners in Iowa face a Jan. 15 deadline to apply in their counties for a new tax credit established” in the compromise property tax bill approved at the end of last year’s legislative session with strong bipartisan support.

As of today, it is legal in the state of Colorado to sell marijuana to people over age 21 at certain licensed stores. Drivers with Colorado license plates were already among the groups more likely to be pulled over by Iowa State Patrol. I would guess that profiling will increase.

In some parts of the country, black-eyed peas are considered a lucky food to eat on New Year’s Day. I’m not a fan of “hoppin’ John,” the most traditional preparation, but I’ve posted the recipe for my favorite black-eyed peas dish after the jump.  

Three-term Democratic State Senator Amanda Ragan has her first declared challenger, as Timothy Junker announced yesterday that he will seek the Republican nomination in Iowa Senate district 27.

Ragan’s race is one of a handful of contests that will likely determine control of the Iowa Senate after 2014. As of December 2013, Senate district 27 contained 11,997 registered Democrats, 13,396 Republicans, and 17,747 no-party voters according to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office. I’ve posted a district map after the jump. It covers Franklin County, part of Butler County, and most of Cerro Gordo County, including the population center of Mason City.

Junker is from Butler County and served six terms as the elected county sheriff before President George W. Bush appointed him U.S. Marshal for the Northern District of Iowa in 2006. Since leaving that position in 2010, “Junker has been selling real estate for Schuck Realty Co., served on the Allison City Council and Allison Tree Board, and is an active member of Trinity Reformed Church, Allison Am Vets and the Am Vets/Legion Drill Team.” He has been exploring this candidacy for some time and held a meet and greet with Franklin County Republicans earlier this month.

I’ve heard rumors of several other Republicans considering this race. This fall, some Mason City residents received telephone polls asking whether they would support former Mayor Bill Schickel or Ragan for the Senate seat. Other possible candidates include former Mason City Mayor Roger Bang and former State Senator Merlin “build my fence” Bartz, who runs Representative Steve King’s Mason City office. Bartz would have to move from his Worth County farm to run against Ragan, though. Cerro Gordo County GOP Chair Gabe Haugland was on my radar because he considered running for the Iowa House during the last election cycle. But he told me today that he is “99 percent sure” he is not running in Senate district 27.  

A governor committed to a certain policy will have his staff or a commission work out a plan, then push hard for its adoption in his annual address to state legislators. We’ve seen Governor Terry Branstad take that route in the past to support commercial property tax cuts or education reform.

A governor casting about for a re-election campaign issue may advocate some vague idea, then blame its inevitable defeat on his political opponents. Case in point: Branstad’s half-assed “plan” to allow higher earners to opt into a lower state income tax rate with fewer deductions.  

Who in the Bleeding Heartland community remembers Dick Clark, the Democrat Iowans elected to the U.S. Senate in 1972? Clark lost his 1978 re-election bid to Roger Jepsen (whom Tom Harkin defeated in 1984). David Rogers published a fascinating story at Politico this week about Senator Clark’s work as chair of the African Affairs subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He knew little about Africa before taking the position but learned quickly. In 1976, he sponsored an amendment to prohibit U.S. covert assistance for paramilitary operations in Angola, but he told Rogers that his larger goal was “disassociate us from apartheid and from South Africa.”

It was a time when Republican challenger Roger Jepsen felt free to taunt the Democrat as “the senator from Africa.” Tensions were such that the State Department called in a South African Embassy official in May for making disparaging remarks about Clark in Iowa. And after Clark lost, South Africa’s ousted information secretary, Eschel Rhoodie, said his government invested $250,000 to defeat Clark, who had become a thorn in the side of the white regime.

Jepsen denied any knowledge of South Africa’s alleged role. Nor does Clark accuse him of such. But 35 years after, Clark has no doubt that the apartheid government led by Prime Minister B. J. Vorster wanted him out – and had a hand in his defeat.

Clark’s liberal record and support of the Panama Canal Treaty, which narrowly cleared the Senate in the spring of 1978, also hurt his chances in Iowa. But the fatal blow was a fierce wave of late-breaking ground attacks from anti-abortion forces-something even conservative writers like Robert Novak had not anticipated in a published column weeks before.

I remember Jepsen running attack ads about the Panama Canal (“I voted to keep what is rightfully ours”), but I didn’t know the South African government was so vested in Clark’s defeat. Rogers describes how Clark tried to steer U.S. policy away from supporting the apartheid regime even after losing his re-election campaign. He worked with the Aspen Institute during the 1980s and 1990s to “to try to get a get a cadre of Congress who would know about South Africa and what was going on in South Africa.” I highly recommend reading the whole story.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? The Des Moines Register reported on a Waukee City Council member who admitted to sock puppetry on Facebook. I’ve posted some details about the case after the jump. Unfortunately, Shane Blanchard was just re-elected in November.  

Blanchard’s reprehensible actions reminded me that with an election year coming, I need to repeat this site’s policy on posts by elected officials, candidates, and campaign staffers or consultants.

Bleeding Heartland commenters and diarists can write under any screen name they choose. No one is required to reveal real names or any personal information. “Outing” other users will get you banned here. I do ask Bleeding Heartland users not to make false statements about themselves. You’re free to never mention your age, gender or location, but if you say you are a 40-something Jewish mother living in Windsor Heights, you should be a 40-something Jewish mother living in Windsor Heights.

I also ask that you stick to one username whenever you comment at Bleeding Heartland. In other words, creating “sock puppets” to lend support for your own position is not acceptable.

Democratic candidates and elected officials are welcome to post here, and I often promote their diaries to the front page. In order to avoid problems that have cropped up at other political blogs, I ask paid campaign staffers or consultants to disclose that fact if they write about the campaign they’re working on. However, someone employed by a campaign can post anonymously about topics not related to that candidate’s race.

The Raccoon River had very high sustained levels of Nitrogen in 2013. Nitrogen can be toxic at high levels. The United States government has determined that nitrogen levels above 10mg/l are not healthy. So water treatment plants like the Des Moines Waterworks must keep the nitrate levels below that number. That was a real challenge last spring. When the Ikes, Waterworks, RRWA and Wells Fargo volunteers cooperated in a Polk County water quality snapshot last spring N levels were above 20 mg/l at many locations. The Des Moines Waterworks pumps Raccoon River water into ponds for natural denitrification. It mixes water from Maffit Lake to bring down the N levels. If all else fails the Waterworks cranks up the expensive denitrification equipment installed for that purpose. Much of our surface water across the state is polluted with Nitrogen, Phosphorus and bacteria. The federal EPA has told Iowa to reduce the N and P in our waters and that which leaves the state by way of the Mississippi and the Missouri. The Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is the result of efforts by the DNR, IDALS and others to achieve a 45% reduction in these pollutants.

Republican State Senator Brad Zaun posted on Facebook and twitter today, “I hope each of you had a great Christmas! I will have some big news to announce after the first of the year and I look forward to sharing it with my supporters and friends first!” (Hat tip to Bleeding Heartland user rockm.)

The suspense would be greater if the message weren’t coming from the “Zaun for Congress” Facebook page and Twitter account.

Longtime Iowa politics watchers will recall that Zaun emerged from a crowded Republican primary to be the GOP nominee in Iowa’s third Congressional district in 2010. However, he fell short against Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. Zaun was just re-elected in 2012 to his third four-year term in the Iowa Senate, so he wouldn’t have to give up his set in the legislature to run for Congress next year. But from where I’m sitting, he’ll struggle to convince GOP primary voters to give him another chance to represent IA-03. He hasn’t delivered much for the party. During his time as the Senate Republican minority whip, he didn’t raise a lot of money for fellow Iowa Senate candidates, despite representing some of the wealthiest precincts in Iowa. Zaun gave up his Senate minority leadership position shortly after the 2012 election, when Republicans failed to win a majority in the upper chamber.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

Merry Christmas to everyone in the Bleeding Heartland community who celebrates the holiday, and peace on earth to all, regardless of religion. All topics are welcome in this open thread.

Last year I posted a few links on the origins of the Christmas narrative. Historians agree that the birth of Jesus was not one of the earliest Christian festivals, and it wasn’t until the fourth century that Christmas was widely celebrated on December 25 or January 6. No one knows the date of Jesus’ birth, and I had always assumed that the late December celebration stemmed from Christians appropriating pagan winter solstice festivities. However, Andrew McGowan offers a different theory on the Biblical Archaeology website.

There is another way to account for the origins of Christmas on December 25: Strange as it may seem, the key to dating Jesus’ birth may lie in the dating of Jesus’ death at Passover. […]

Around 200 C.E. Tertullian of Carthage reported the calculation that the 14th of Nisan (the day of the crucifixion according to the Gospel of John) in the year Jesus diedc was equivalent to March 25 in the Roman (solar) calendar.9 March 25 is, of course, nine months before December 25; it was later recognized as the Feast of the Annunciation-the commemoration of Jesus’ conception.10 Thus, Jesus was believed to have been conceived and crucified on the same day of the year. Exactly nine months later, Jesus was born, on December 25.d

This idea appears in an anonymous Christian treatise titled On Solstices and Equinoxes, which appears to come from fourth-century North Africa. The treatise states: “Therefore our Lord was conceived on the eighth of the kalends of April in the month of March [March 25], which is the day of the passion of the Lord and of his conception. For on that day he was conceived on the same he suffered.”11 Based on this, the treatise dates Jesus’ birth to the winter solstice.

Many people eat traditional family dishes on Christmas. I enjoy reading Patric Juillet’s account of the Provencal culinary traditions from this season. I don’t cook anything that elaborate at any time of year, but I do plan to make noodle kugel later today. Like many Jewish Americans, we marked Christmas Eve last night by eating Chinese food and watching a movie.

Representative Tom Latham’s surprise retirement announcement last Tuesday was an early Christmas present to some ambitious Republicans (who now have an opportunity to move up) as well as to Democrats (who now have a prayer of winning IA-03).

Here’s a new thread on potential GOP contenders for the vacant seat next year. My thoughts on many possible candidates are after the jump. Appearing on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program, Latham said he does not expect to endorse a candidate in the GOP primary to represent IA-03. He added that he might become a lobbyist or work for a charity after leaving Congress.

Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson reports today that Jonathan Narcisse is considering a gubernatorial bid as a Democrat in 2014. Narcisse endorsed Chet Culver during the 2006 IA-Gov primary, then briefly considered running against Culver in the 2010 primary before launching an independent campaign instead. You can find background on Narcisse here and issue positions from his previous campaign on this website. In the 2010 general election, he received more votes than the Libertarian candidate, finishing with 20,747 votes statewide (about 1.9 percent). According to Henderson’s report today, Narcisse has ruled out running as an independent next year and now considers his 2010 choice “naive” and a “mistake.”

Since State Representative Tyler Olson ended his campaign last week, State Senator Jack Hatch is the only declared Democratic candidate for governor. Former State Representative Bob Krause is still in the exploratory phase but sounds likely to make his campaign official early next year. He recently told the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s James Lynch that Olson’s departure will be a “turning point,” adding, “I’ve turned from a dark horse to a horse.” State Senator Janet Petersen, an early Olson endorser, is also thinking about running for governor.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? Across central and parts of eastern Iowa, today was this winter’s first good sledding opportunity. But road conditions are iffy, and tomorrow’s high temperatures will be in the single digits, so be careful if you need to venture out. Earlier this month, I posted a bunch of winter safety links here.

Today’s Sunday Des Moines Register includes a feature by Mike Kilen on Leland Searles’ Raccoon River Watershed Phenology calendar. In a blatant play for the reader’s attention, Kilen led with the calendar’s many references to animal mating. This calendar is a fantastic resource for Iowans interested in birds or native plants. You can order copies here; part of the proceeds go to the non-profit Raccoon River Watershed Association.

The Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge is open year-round, and they have snowshoes for visitors to borrow if you want to explore the prairie. Highly recommended. The center also holds some special events during the winter, including a guided snowshoe hike on December 28 and a bird count scheduled for January 4.

I just learned about this website containing links to Iowa natural areas, including marshes, prairie remnants and fens as well as state parks and preserves.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz confirmed on Tuesday that he is seriously considering running for the open seat in Iowa’s third Congressional district. He’ll make up his mind during the next few weeks.

The more I think about the potential risks and benefits for Schultz, the more I think he will go for it.  

Time for a new thread on other Democrats who may join former State Senator Staci Appel and Gabriel De La Cerda as candidates for Congress in Iowa’s third district. Right now my best guess is that State Senator Matt McCoy will throw his hat in. He was planning to run for Congress in IA-03 way back in 2001, but he stood aside when Representative Leonard Boswell decided to move to Des Moines. McCoy has said previously (and confirmed again this week) that he would consider running for an open Congressional seat. He could raise substantial money as the chair of the Iowa Senate Commerce Committee and is well-known in the LGBT community as our state’s first out gay legislator. One complicating factor for McCoy: he is up for re-election next year in Iowa Senate district 21, covering parts of Des Moines and West Des Moines. He would have to give up his Senate seat in order to take a chance on IA-03.

Several other prominent Democrats contacted by the Des Moines Register indicated directly or through associates that they are thinking about this race, but I just don’t see former Governor Chet Culver, Polk County Democratic Party Chair Tom Henderson, former Des Moines City Council member Michael Kiernan or Dr. Andy McGuire following through.  

Any new Democrat who enters this primary will be playing catch-up. As of September 30, Appel’s campaign had nearly $200,000 cash on hand. Perhaps more important, her campaign sent out a press release on December 18 highlighting more than a dozen groups that are standing by their endorsements of her candidacy. I’ve posted that release after the jump. The loyal Appel endorsers include several labor unions, Planned Parenthood Voters of Iowa, EMILY’s List, and the LGBT advocacy group Human Rights Campaign.

Democrats who have ruled out a candidacy in IA-03 include Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Janet Petersen, and Boswell’s 2008 Democratic primary challenger Ed Fallon. The Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs mentioned Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie and both Tom and Christie Vilsack as possible candidates, but I would be shocked if any of them ran for Congress next year.  

In a departure from the usual brinksmanship over funding the federal government, the U.S. Senate approved yesterday the recent bipartisan budget deal. Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray and House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan worked out a compromise on overall budget targets for fiscal years 2014 and 2015, replacing some of the “sequester” cuts that went into effect earlier this year. The deal passed the House last week with strong bipartisan support, including three of Iowa’s four representatives.

Senate Republicans were less supportive of the budget agreement than House GOP members, but nine Republicans crossed over to vote with the entire Democratic caucus, approving the deal by 64 votes to 36 (roll call). Iowa’s Senator Chuck Grassley was one of the 36 Republicans who voted no, along with possible future presidential candidates Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul. I have not seen any statement from Grassley’s office explaining that vote but will update this post as needed. UPDATE: Added a few comments from Grassley.

President Barack Obama will sign off on this agreement, but Congress still needs to pass an omnibus budget bill before January 15 to avoid another government shutdown. After the jump I’ve posted a statement from Senator Tom Harkin supporting the deal, as well as details on why some conservatives oppose this deal.

Lining up with a Republican pollster’s survey last month, Quinnipiac’s latest Iowa poll shows Democrat Bruce Braley with single-digit leads over all of the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, despite record low approval for President Barack Obama. Full results are here. Key findings:

President Barack Obama gets a negative 38 – 59 percent job approval rating among Iowa voters, according to a poll released today, his lowest score in the state and one of his lowest in any state or national survey conducted by Quinnipiac University. […]

President Obama gets negative scores of 30 – 67 percent among men, 45 – 51 percent among women, 7 – 93 percent among Republicans and 31 – 62 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 82 – 15 percent. […]

In the 2014 Senate race, U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, gets 43 percent, while U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, the Republican, gets 40 percent. Braley tops other possible Republican contenders:

44 – 38 percent over State Sen. Joni Ernst;

46 – 37 percent over businessman Mark Jacobs;

44 – 36 percent over former U.S. Senate aide David Young;

45 – 34 percent over radio commentator Sam Clovis;

46 – 40 percent over political activist Bob Vander Plaats. […]

Iowa voters say 46 – 41 percent that they want the Republican Party to control the U.S. Senate.

The usual caveat applies: this poll of 1,617 registered voters has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, but a survey of Iowa voters eleven months before the midterm election doesn’t necessarily reflect the group of Iowans who will cast ballots next fall.  

Any comments about the U.S. Senate race are welcome in this thread. Braley will be pleased to be leading every Republican, even among respondents who overwhelmingly do not approve of President Obama’s job performance and narrowly prefer GOP control of the U.S. Senate. He should be behind in this survey.

Iowa Republicans can take heart that Braley is below 50 percent against every opponent, despite having higher name recognition.

Republicans are preventing the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee from conducting routine business in retaliation for last month’s rules reform that limited the Senate minority’s power to filibuster presidential nominations. Iowa’s Senator Chuck Grassley is the ranking Republican on Judiciary and a vocal critic of what he called a “power grab” that stopped Republicans from demanding a 60-vote majority on almost every Senate action. Yesterday Judiciary Committee Chair Patrick Leahy criticized “obstruction” by his Republican colleagues, who boycotted an executive meeting to consider eighteen nominations last week and “invoked procedural tactics” to scuttle a hearing on five U.S. District Court nominees, which had been scheduled for December 18. Leahy warned that he may “reconsider long-held policies that have upheld the rights of the minority party” in committee matters.

Leahy’s statement is enclosed after the jump, along with Grassley’s response. He denied that Republicans have obstructed judicial nominations and said it would inevitably be “harder to get things done” after “Democrats broke the rules to change the rules.”

An October 2013 report by the Alliance for Justice found that “‘Pervasive and surreptitious’ obstruction of President [Barack] Obama’s judicial nominees is prolonging an ‘unprecedented vacancy crisis’ in America’s federal courts.” You can find that full report here. I’ve posted a few excerpts below.

UPDATE: Added a December 19 Judiciary Committee floor statement from Grassley on “so-called obstruction.”

Democratic State Senator Janet Petersen told reporters today that she is “thinking about” running for governor next year. Petersen was an early endorser of State Representative Tyler Olson, who just dropped out of the governor’s race.

Who would advise Petersen to take this course? All polls taken this year, including two surveys released this week, indicate that Governor Terry Branstad will be extremely difficult to beat in 2014. Meanwhile, an open Congressional seat in central Iowa is almost a once in a lifetime opportunity. IA-03 is very winnable for a Democrat, and without meaning any disrespect to Staci Appel, Petersen has more legislative experience and accomplishments. She would be a stronger Congressional candidate.

Either way, Petersen doesn’t need to give up her Senate seat to run for higher office. After serving six terms in the Iowa House, she was just elected to represent Iowa Senate district 18 in 2012. She won’t be up for re-election until 2016.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: So much for that idea. Senator Petersen responded to my request for comment: “It would be an honor to serve Iowans in Congress, but my family and I don’t want to move to DC.” I understand the decision; she has three young children.

Before I got sidetracked by the shocking news about Tom Latham, I was working on a post about Republican Mark Jacobs’ first television commercial, which hit the airwaves yesterday. Follow me after the jump for the video and transcript.

I’m not sure it’s a great use of campaign funds to advertise during the holiday season nearly six months before the primary, but Jacobs is the only Republican candidate for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat who can afford to buy tv time. He may as well exploit that advantage. The Jacobs campaign went up on statewide radio earlier this month. This relatively small buy of $138,000 will run the introductory spot on cable statewide and on network television in the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Sioux City markets through January 4. Sioux City is the home base for Senate candidate Sam Clovis, who needs a strong showing in northwest Iowa to have any hope of winning the nomination.