I can’t remember a more volatile Republican presidential campaign in Iowa than this year’s. If you dare to guess how things will play out next Tuesday evening, please enter Bleeding Heartland’s Iowa caucus election prediction contest. Winning this contest brings no financial reward, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users American007, ModerateIADem and Johannes. Ground rules and five questions to answer are after the jump.  

Let’s review the most boneheaded moves from the year in Iowa politics.

This thread is not about wrongheaded policy choices. It may be stupid to cut early childhood education programs, kneecap the state Environmental Protection Commission, or pass an “ag gag” bill that would never survive a court challenge. Yet all of those actions carry potential political benefits, since they appeal to well-funded interest groups or a large group of voters.

My top ten list of Iowa politicians’ mistakes is after the jump.

Talk about your last-minute bombshells: Representative Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign chair, State Senator Kent Sorenson, just endorsed Representative Ron Paul in Des Moines this evening. Background on Sorenson’s connections to prominent Paul supporters is after the jump.

Six days before the Iowa caucuses, no Republican candidate has a clear lead, social conservatives remain scattered among several contenders, and new television commercials are launched on almost a daily basis. Numbers from the two latest opinion polls and news from the campaign trail are after the jump, along with some commercials currently showing on Iowa tv screens.

UPDATE: Added numbers from a new CNN poll and the latest Ron Paul tv ad.

Projects in St. Ansgar, Mason City, Dubuque, Guttenberg, Sioux City and Perry were recognized this year as some of the best examples of sustainable development in Iowa.

It’s the most list-making time of the year. Let’s start talking about Iowa political highlights of 2011.

This thread is devoted to master strokes. I don’t mean our elected officials’ wisest actions, or the policy choices that affected the greatest number of Iowans. I mean acts of such skill that even opponents had to grudgingly acknowledge their brilliance.

My top picks are after the jump. Tomorrow Bleeding Heartland will review the year’s most bewildering acts of incompetence. On Thursday we’ll look at the events that are likely to have the greatest long-term impact on Iowa politics.

Hope dies last for Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller when it comes to reaching a settlement with major lenders accused of foreclosure fraud. He predicted that a deal would be finalized by Christmas, but so far, no deal has materialized. Attorneys general for several major states remain unlikely to abide by any agreement Miller’s working group negotiates.

It’s Christmas Eve, the fifth night of Chanukah, and ten days before the Iowa caucuses. Not-too-cold weather and clear skies will create good conditions for stargazing. The only thing missing from an otherwise perfect weekend is enough snow for sledding.

I hope everyone in the Bleeding Heartland community is enjoying friends, family and your favorite foods of the season. I’m eating the traditional Jewish Christmas Eve meal. Tomorrow noodle kugel is on the menu.

This is an open thread: happy holidays to all, and all topics welcome. A few Republican presidential television commercials now airing in Iowa are below.

It’s the season of giving, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency just delivered an outstanding present to Americans who breathe air.  

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner agreed today to support a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut while House and Senate members negotiate legislation to keep the tax cut throughout 2012. Follow me after the jump for details on Boehner’s deal and early reaction from Iowans in Congress.  

Funding for transportation projects is likely to become a significant issue in next year’s race pitting Democratic Representative Leonard Boswell against Republican incumbent Tom Latham in the new third Congressional district.

The Republican Iowa caucus results will be the big news story of January 3, but away from the spotlight, some Democrats who are dissatisfied with President Barack Obama’s leadership are seeking to elect uncommitted delegates at their own precinct caucuses. Political junkies who are following that story will be pleased to know that the Iowa Democratic Party has promised to release precinct-level delegate counts on caucus night.

It’s the least the party can do, given how the deck will be stacked against Democrats planning to caucus uncommitted.

Iowa’s new map of political boundaries paired House Democrats Roger Thomas and Andrew Wenthe in the new district 55. Instead of facing off in a primary, the two incumbents announced today that Wenthe will retire and Thomas will run for re-election in 2012. A district map and background on both representatives are after the jump.

Catching up on news from the weekend, the U.S. House and Senate averted a federal government shutdown by passing an omnibus spending bill for fiscal year 2012, which runs through September 30 of next year. The government had been operating on a continuing spending resolution, which was due to expire on December 17. Details on the last-minute appropriations deal and how the Iowans voted are after the jump, along with comments from some members of the Congressional delegation.

The payroll tax cut, extended unemployment benefits, and a “doc fix” affecting Medicare reimbursements look more likely to expire on December 31 after today’s votes in the U.S. House. Republicans voted to go to conference to resolve differences between their approach to extending the payroll tax cut and the bill the U.S. Senate approved on Saturday.  However, Democrats don’t plan to appoint anyone to the conference committee.

Details on today’s votes and reaction from members of Iowa’s House delegation are after the jump.

I don’t care what Bob Dole said when he was in the mood for flattery, I’m not going to waste Bleeding Heartland readers’ time discussing why Governor Terry Branstad won’t be on anyone’s short list for vice presidential candidates. But it’s never too early to do a little scenario spinning about running mates.

Democrat John Beard announced today that he will run for the Iowa Senate in the new district 28.

Maybe “Organize, organize, organize and then get hot at the end” isn’t outdated Iowa caucus wisdom after all. Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of Iowa Republicans finds Representative Ron Paul slightly ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich dropped to third place.

UPDATE: The Republican polling firm Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research has also picked up on the Gingrich slide and Paul gain. Details are at the end of this post.

Newt Gingrich’s surprise trip back to political relevance got me thinking about other old-fashioned (or vintage, if you prefer a more positive spin) American topics.

Both Republican Chuck Grassley and Democrat Tom Harkin voted Saturday morning for a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits.