Part of a series on GOTV in Iowa this year

Less than two weeks remain before county auditors start mailing absentee ballots to Iowa voters. On September 22, the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office will start releasing updates on absentee ballots requested and returned statewide and by Congressional district. As in 2012, Bleeding Heartland will post those totals daily.

Data from a few of the larger counties indicate that the Iowa Democratic Party’s head start on canvassing this summer has produced a clear advantage on absentee ballots requested. Iowa Republican blogger Craig Robinson is fretting about the GOP “getting out worked when it comes to early voting.” Former Iowa Senate GOP staffer Don McDowell is upset with conservatives who refuse to vote before election day. He has seen more than a few statehouse races lost narrowly after Republican candidates were crushed in the early vote.

However, it’s way too soon for Democrats to be over-confident about this year’s early vote lead, for three reasons.

First in a series of posts on GOTV in Iowa this year

Air time for television advertising has become the most expensive line-item in many election campaigns. Outside groups have spent millions of dollars already on Iowa commercials targeting U.S. Senate candidates Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst, with millions more to be spent over the next 60 days. Nevertheless, I don’t know many people who believe attack ads will determine the outcome of close races like Iowa’s U.S. Senate battle. Barring some extraordinary campaign event (such as a meltdown in the debates), the winner will be the candidate whose side does a better job of identifying its supporters and turning them out to vote.

The number of Iowans who voted in each of the last two midterm elections was about a third lower than the number who had voted in the most recent presidential election. If that trend holds, approximately 1.1 million Iowans will cast ballots in the 2014 general election. Braley and other Democrats can’t afford to have turnout resemble 2010, when only 56.5 percent of registered Iowa Democrats voted, as opposed to 69 percent of registered Republicans.

The Iowa Democratic Party has been crowing about its bigger and better “coordinated campaign,” an effort to build on the successful 2012 early voting program here. No question, Democrats got a big jump on the ground game while the Iowa GOP was mired in poor fundraising and a messy leadership transition. Democrats have had canvassers out every weekend for months, and so far have generated many more absentee ballot requests than Republicans. The Iowa GOP has stepped up its door-knocking over the past several weeks, and Governor Terry Branstad will spend part of his war chest to assist the early voting efforts.

Knocking on doors is one of the most valuable ways to volunteer for a campaign. For those willing to spend a few hours on a weeknight or a weekend afternoon, I’ve enclosed my best advice for canvassing after the jump. Please feel free to share your own experiences with canvassing (on either side of the door) in this thread. Six years ago, a guest diarist posted his top tips here.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

Most political campaign staffers are overworked and underpaid, and the prevalence of unpaid internships in Congressional offices leaves few opportunities for people who are not independently wealthy. Now two veterans of Barack Obama’s 2012 presidential campaign have come under fire for launching what looks like “a ‘pay to play’ system for would-be campaign staff.” Participants pay $5,000 for five days of intensive training, followed by five weeks of unpaid work on a campaign. Mitch Stewart and Jeremy Bird claim their consulting firm is just looking to recoup costs through this program, which is “focused on an international audience” rather than American progressives. They also deny they are charging people to volunteer. Rather, they say they are training participants in “organizing, data analytics, digital, and communications strategy and tactics coupled with immersion on a campaign.”

Doesn’t sound like “change we can believe in” to me. If Stewart and Bird hope “to equip grassroots advocates with the key skills and best practices,” they should seek donations from wealthy progressives to cover costs, rather than charging a fee few aspiring activists could afford.

As selling out goes, though, Stewart and Bird’s gambit bothers me less than Obama’s 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina advising the Tory party in Britain, or another group of 2012 Obama campaign wizards applying their marketing talents to lure more suckers to a Las Vegas casino.

On a related note, the Ready for Hillary super-PAC has somehow convinced 90,000 people to give them money. Most of these donors probably feel they are doing something tangible to help Hillary Clinton become president. The reality is, they are just helping a small group of insiders build a list that will later be sold to a Clinton campaign.

If you can afford to give money to political causes, it’s better to donate directly to a worthy candidate’s campaign, or to non-profits that are committed to a mission besides enriching the founders.

Which is not to say there’s any shame in talented people getting rich. Case in point: Weird Al Yankovic. His new album deserved to hit number one on the charts. The lyrics for “Tacky” and “Word Crimes” are hysterical. They inspired me to go back and listen to some of Weird Al’s classics. My favorites include “Six Words Long” (a parody of George Harrison’s “I Got My Mind Set On You”) and “The Saga Begins” (a Star Wars-themed version of Don McLean’s song “American Pie”). I don’t know whether he plans to tour in support of his new album, but if he does, I hope he comes through central Iowa. I was fortunate to see him play Des Moines as the opening act for a Monkees reunion tour during the 1980s. Hilarious.

Officially, early voting begins in Iowa 40 days before the general election (September 25 this year). The Iowa Democratic Party has been sending field organizers and volunteers out to do voter contacts for weeks, and didn’t even take a break for the holiday weekend.

Concern over the Democrats’ head start on GOTV was one factor behind the recent change in Iowa GOP leadership. New state party chair Jeff Kaufmann has promised to build a strong field organization in time for the midterm election. Fortunately for him, a dark money group associated with the Koch brothers is already ramping up its voter contacts in Iowa.

Tony Bisignano will be the Democratic nominee in Iowa Senate district 17, as second-place finisher Nathan Blake declined to request a recount. From a Facebook status update Blake posted yesterday:

According to the official canvass from the Polk County Auditor’s Office, I ended up 18 votes behind in the Democratic primary election for Iowa State Senate District 17. I congratulate Tony Bisignano on a hard-fought victory. Thank you to my supporters, volunteers, and all who voted. Thanks especially to my wife and partner, Andrea, and our two kids for their patience, support, and sacrifices over the last year. I am proud of the campaign we ran. We won over 60% of the Election Day vote, even if we came up a few votes short.

As for the future, I am committed to to electing Democrats up and down the ballot in Iowa this November. I will continue my work in public service, fighting for consumers as an Assistant Iowa Attorney General. I promise to stay involved in progressive politics and will seek future opportunities to serve in elective office. The issues we care about are too important to sit on the sidelines.

A recount wouldn’t have changed the result, so I think Blake did the right thing not to go through the motions. He did manage a very strong election-day turnout, which is promising for any future candidacies.

Senate district 17 was the best chance for Democrats to elect Iowa’s first Latino state legislator, but two other opportunities remain this year in House district 60 and Senate district 47.

UPDATE: In a Facebook post, Bisignano said of Blake, “I can’t say enough about his poise and character. He has a very bright future in public service and I’m looking forward to helping him. His positive and respectful campaign shows what people want and expect from their public officals.”

Earlier this year, I would have predicted high Republican turnout for Iowa’s June 3 primary elections. The five-way race for the U.S. Senate nomination was highly competitive, as was the six-way contest in the open third Congressional district. Multiple candidates contested GOP primaries in the first and second Congressional districts too. The 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses, which involved going out for an hour or more on a cold night in January, attracted a record turnout of roughly 122,000 people.

Yet according to unofficial results, just 158,031 Iowans cast ballots in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, and 156,275 cast ballots in the governor’s race, where Terry Branstad had a token challenger.

The 2010 midterm election saw much higher Republican turnout, with some 227,404 people voting for one of the three GOP gubernatorial candidates. There weren’t any high-profile statewide Republican primary contests in 2006, but in the 2002 midterm year, 199,234 Iowans cast ballots in the three-way GOP primary for governor, and 197,096 Iowans cast ballots in the two-way GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

In IA-03, five of the six Republican candidates raised enough money to run district-wide campaigns before this year’s primary. Yet only 42,948 Iowans voted in a Congressional district with 160,660 active Republican voters as of June 2014. The seven-way 2010 GOP primary in IA-03 attracted more than 46,000 votes in a district that included only one-fifth of the state’s population at the time and 118,850 active Republican voters. (Iowa lost one of its Congressional districts after the 2010 census).

A similar story took shape in IA-02, where about 30,500 people cast ballots in this year’s GOP primary, compared to nearly 40,000 who voted in the 2010 primary, at a time when the district covered one-fifth of the state’s population rather than one-fourth.

In this thread, please share your thoughts on why Republicans didn’t show up to vote in larger numbers this year. Julie Stauch, a veteran of many Democratic campaigns, speculated that the low turnout “is the cumulative result of every extreme and outrageous statement over the last four years. The current Republicans in Iowa are only talking to those who agree with them 100 percent, which creates a rapidly shrinking base as every outrageous statement drives away a few more people. We can see the effect of this from the loss of 40 percent of the 2010 participants. That’s a serious decline over any range of time, but very bad over four years.”

Tony Bisignano will be the next state senator representing Iowa Senate district 17, barring some extraordinary turn of events. The final election-night vote count showed him leading with 1,438 votes, to 1,425 for Nathan Blake and 1,001 for Ned Chiodo. Yesterday, officials counted six additional ballots, which all had been hand-delivered to the Polk County Auditor’s office on June 3, primary election day. Bisignano gained five votes and Chiodo one. So the final unofficial result shows Bisignano leading Blake by 1,443 to 1,425.

According to the Polk County Auditor’s elections office, three ballots from Senate district 17 arrived in the mail on June 4, but none will be counted, because they were postmarked June 3. In order to be counted, a late-arriving absentee ballot must be postmarked the day before the election at the latest.

On election night, Blake wrote on Facebook that his “campaign is reviewing all options to ensure that every vote is counted and accurately recorded.” I haven’t seen any statement since on whether he will request a recount. (There are no automatic recounts for Iowa primary elections.) I can’t imagine that a recount would change an eighteen-vote margin. In recent years, recounts of various Iowa House and Senate races have typically only changed the totals by a handful of votes, at most.

No Republican has filed to run in Senate district 17, an overwhelmingly Democratic seat in terms of voter registration. I was hoping for a different outcome in this primary, but I wish Bisignano well in his Iowa Senate work and offer condolences on the loss of his mother. I’ve posted below his statement on his mother’s passing and the primary election results. Bisignano won this race on early GOTV, building up a 102-vote margin on Chiodo and a 649-vote margin on Blake through absentee ballots. Blake had strong election-day turnout, especially considering that there were no competitive Democratic primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, or the third Congressional district, but it wasn’t quite enough. No doubt he’ll have other opportunities to run for office.

Final note for Iowa election trivia buffs: Patrick Rynard set a record this year that will likely never be broken. He has now managed two campaigns that spawned cases eventually reaching the Iowa Supreme Court. Rick Mullin’s Iowa Senate race in Sioux City in 2010 led to the recent court ruling about negative political advertising. Bisignano’s candidacy (or more accurately Chiodo’s determination to drive his rival off the ballot) prompted a high court ruling that may lead to thousands of Iowans getting their voting rights back.

Polls close at 9 pm, and I’ll be updating this post regularly with primary election results. Rumor has it that turnout was relatively low, even on the Republican side where there are hard-fought primaries for U.S. Senate and the third Congressional district. According to the Polk County Auditor’s office, as of this afternoon only 1,506 absentee ballots had been requested and 1,350 absentee ballots received for today’s GOP primary. Keep in mind that roughly half of all Republican voters in IA-03 live in Polk County, and six campaigns were competing for their votes. Not to mention that five U.S. Senate candidates should have been locking in early votes in Iowa’s largest county.

By comparison, 2,883 Democratic primary absentee ballots were requested in Polk County, and 2,296 of those returned by today. The lion’s share were from Iowa Senate district 17 in Des Moines, where three candidates are seeking to replace Jack Hatch (2,475 absentee ballots requested and 1,950 returned). Democratic campaigns have long pushed early voting more than Republicans, but still–that’s a shocking failure to GOTV by the various Republican campaigns.

Share any comments about any Iowa campaigns in this thread, as well as any interesting anecdotes from voting today.

UPDATE: Polls are now closed and updates will continue after the jump.

Democrats hoping for a progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race need to look somewhere other than toward U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren. Appearing on CBS Sunday Morning yesterday to promote her new autobiography, Warren couldn’t have been more emphatic about not running for president.

“I’m not running for president,” Warren, 64, of Cambridge, told reporter Mark Strassmann. Her autobiography, “A Fighting Chance,” hits bookstores Tuesday.

Strassmann persisted, however, noting that President Obama wrote “The Audacity of Hope,” like Warren, two years into his first term as U.S. senator. Epic, inspiring autobiographies have become a common political precursor to presidential runs, and speculation has swirled around Warren, who is seen as a alternative if Hilary Clinton chooses not to run, because of her popularity on her party’s left wing, as well as her success as a fundraiser for Democrats nationwide.

“I’m not running for president,” Warren cut him off. “You can ask it lots of different ways.”

No weasel words like “I’m focused on my work in the Senate” or “I’m happy in my current job, representing the good people of Massachusetts.”

Meanwhile, news broke a few days ago that Derek Eadon, a familiar figure in recent Iowa Democratic campaigns, will be the Midwest regional director for the “Ready for Hillary” super PAC. Eadon’s background: Iowa Democratic Party field organizer in Cedar Rapids during 2006, first field director hired by Barack Obama’s 2008 Iowa caucus campaign, Iowa State Director for Organizing for America beginning in 2009, Iowa Democratic Party’s “coordinated campaign” director in 2010, and general election director for Obama’s 2012 campaign in Iowa.

I still think Ready for Hillary is a huge waste of time and money. Whether she runs for president or not, she won’t need this super PAC’s help. However, it’s significant that early Obama supporters such as Jackie Norris and now Eadon are eager to identify supporters for a repeat Clinton presidential bid.  

Welcome news: Iowa Democratic Party leaders will have a real conversation about making the Iowa caucuses more accessible to people who can’t attend for various reasons.

“Everything’s on the table to talk about,” [IDP Chair Scott] Brennan said. “If there’s a way to enhance access and do it in a manner that keeps the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses and still lets peoples’ voices be heard, that’s what we want to do.”

Brennan has asked Norman Sterzenbach, the party’s former executive director, to conduct a “listening tour” to talk to “hundreds, if not thousands” of people about how absentee voting might be incorporated in the Caucuses.

I’ve supported Iowa caucus reforms since way before Bleeding Heartland existed. It is painful to talk with people who care deeply about the political process and want to participate in choosing a presidential nominee, but can’t get time off work or physically cannot leave their homes on caucus night.

Before the 2008 caucuses I wrote a series on the Iowa Democratic Party’s caucus system, linked here. Part 2, part 4 and part 9 discuss the barriers to participation in precinct caucuses. I’m glad to know Brennan and Sterzenbach are taking those problems seriously. Many Democrats who otherwise consider themselves inclusive have dismissed any criticism of the caucus system on this front. Introducing absentee ballots or proxy votes could address the problem, though each would also complicate the process in different ways–especially during the “realignment” period for caucus-goers whose first choice fell below the 15 percent threshold.

I hope IDP leaders will also be open to hearing about other ways the Iowa caucus system distorts Democratic voter preferences. Part 5, part 7 and part 8 of Bleeding Heartland’s Iowa caucus series discussed some of the problems created by caucus math. Instead of the “one person, one vote” principle that applies to all other elections, Iowa Democrats in some precincts can influence many more delegates than others, because of disparate caucus and general election turnout. Meanwhile, skilled operatives can sometimes manipulate the math, so that the number of delegates allocated to each candidate may not reflect the proportion of supporters in the room.

Any comments about the Iowa caucus system are welcome in this thread.  

A growing proportion of Iowans have chosen to vote early during the last few election cycles. During the 2012 presidential election, 43.2 percent of Iowans who participated cast early ballots. In yesterday’s Des Moines Register, Jason Noble highlighted a problem that has and will continue to nullify the votes of some of them: missing postmarks on ballots that arrive after the general election. Post offices do not always postmark envelopes without a stamp. That’s not a problem when county auditors receive mailed absentee ballots before election day, but current Iowa rules instruct auditors to throw out ballots that arrive late, unless a postmark proves they were mailed on or before the day before the election.

Iowa lawmakers discussed several ideas for addressing the problem, but lack of consensus led them to drop the issue this year. After the jump I’ve posted an excerpt from Noble’s piece.

As things stand, Iowans who plan to vote early either in the 2014 primary or general elections can do a few things to make sure their votes count:

1. Mail in your absentee ballot well before election day, to ensure that it arrives on time.

2. Hand-deliver your absentee ballot to your county auditor’s office.

3. Place a stamp on your absentee ballot envelope, so that the post office will have to put a postmark on it.

4. Vote early in person, either at the county auditor’s office or (for the general election) at a satellite location. I prefer this option, because I know for sure that my ballot got to the right place on time. If you take this route, I recommend reviewing a sample ballot online first, so that you have time to research ballot initiatives and candidates for more obscure offices.  

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign revealed today that it has recruited 1,040 county co-chairs, including multiple volunteers in every county. I’ve posted the official announcement below. You can view the full list of Branstad-Reynolds co-chairs here (pdf). The campaign plans to line up chairs in every Iowa precinct.

This show of organizational force will cement the conventional wisdom that Branstad is favored to win a sixth term, assuming he seeks re-election. It may also fuel rumors in some Iowa Democratic circles that the governor is planning to stand aside for Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds. The deliberate branding of “Branstad-Reynolds,” which Bleeding Heartland discussed here, is apparent in today’s press release. Every testimonial from a county co-chair mentions the “governor and lieutenant governor” as a unit, as well as both Branstad and Reynolds by name.

The governor and lieutenant governor have made fourteen joint public appearances in the last two weeks alone. That’s consistent with the Branstad administration’s pattern in recent months but a departure from the traditional role of Iowa’s lieutenant governors, who have largely handled events the governor doesn’t have time to attend. Some Democrats believe that Reynolds is being groomed to step in as the candidate.

If Branstad bows out shortly before the filing deadline next March, an organization with more than 1,000 volunteers could easily collect enough signatures for Reynolds to qualify for the ballot as a gubernatorial candidate. In contrast, other Republicans would be hard-pressed to collect at least 3,654 valid signatures spread across at least ten counties on short notice.

I still believe Branstad will run for re-election, barring some catastrophic health event. Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

P.S.- An alternate rumor has Branstad planning to resign in the middle of his sixth term, turning the office over to Reynolds. Perhaps for that reason, some conservative Republicans are plotting to try to replace Reynolds on the ticket at next summer’s statewide convention, according to longtime political reporter Mike Glover. Branstad told reporters today, “We’re not afraid of any challenge” to Reynolds for the lieutenant governor slot.

Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign announced today that it has hired field directors in each of Iowa’s four Congressional districts. I enclose below the press release with background on Matt Leopold, Nic Pottebaum, Kaylee Carnahan, and Jacob Johnson. All four field directors have campaign experience, and all but Carnahan have Iowa campaign experience.

Reading the press release, I was struck by the way the governor’s campaign staff continue to talk about the “Branstad-Reynolds committee” in official communications as well as in less formal settings. The campaign’s registered name is Governor Branstad Committee. Lately Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds has accompanied Branstad to many public events. Traditionally, Iowa’s lieutenant governors have been sent out to handle events the governor could not attend, so that the administration could cover more ground. The “Branstad-Reynolds” team branding effort is one reason some Iowa Democrats suspect that the governor may announce shortly before next year’s filing deadline that he is not running for re-election–clearing a path for Reynolds to step in as the Republican establishment candidate for governor. I expect Branstad to seek a sixth term, barring a serious health problem.

Roll Call’s Abby Livingston published a piece today on “The 7 Most Dysfunctional State Parties.” Lo and behold, our own Republican Party of Iowa was there along the state GOP operations in Minnesota, Alaska, and Nevada, and state Democratic parties in Alabama, New Jersey, and Georgia.

The Daily Kos Elections team has been compiling 2012 presidential election results by state legislative district as well as by Congressional district, state by state. Last week the Iowa numbers were added to the database. I took a first stab at previewing the battle for control of the Iowa Senate next year, using data including the raw vote totals and percentages for President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in each district.

The Daily Kos database includes Obama and Romney vote totals and percentages for each Iowa House district here. After the jump I’ve incorporated that information and other factors to predict which Iowa House districts will be competitive in 2014. Writing this post has been challenging, because every election cycle brings surprises, and many more seats in the lower chamber will be in play. Unlike the Iowa Senate, where only half of the 50 members are on the ballot in each general election, all 100 Iowa House members are on ballot in every even-numbered year. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the lower chamber.

Practically every Iowa town is holding an Independence Day parade tonight or tomorrow. Several Democratic statewide candidates will be at the Freedom Fest Parade in Coralville. Even in an off-year, your county party or a local candidate may be looking for help during the event.

I enclose below a slightly altered version of this diary, containing my best advice for parade volunteers.

Ever hear that Republicans are more reliable voters in bad weather? The same day a snowstorm closed most schools in the Iowa City area, Republicans appear to have won their first seat on the Johnson County supervisors since 1962. With 57 of 58 precincts reporting, GOP candidate John Etheredge had 3,040 votes, while Democrat Terry Dahms had 2,931 votes. The only precinct left to report had just 82 voters as of 6 pm. UPDATE: With all precincts in, Etheredge leads Dahms by 3,102 votes to 2,974 votes. In a low-turnout election like this one, I doubt there will be enough late-arriving absentee ballots to overcome that margin (narrow as it is).

A Republican won a few Johnson County elections for sheriff in the 1970s and 1980s, but the last GOP supervisor in the “people’s republic” finished his term in 1962. Iowa City-based blogger John Deeth tried to warn local Democrats to vote early in case of a snowstorm. But early voting was low, and total turnout was a pathetic 6.65 percent.

Today’s special election fills the vacancy created when Democrat Sally Stutsman won Iowa House district 77 last November.

UPDATE: Deeth comments on how Johnson County Democrats fell asleep at the switch: “Blame the weather? Maybe. But that doesn’t explain the much lower early vote total. We saw that coming two weeks out. It doesn’t explain Dahms’ narrower early vote margin, which should have been 3 to 1 rather than 60-40.”

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee met today in Des Moines to rubber-stamp the election of State Representative Tyler Olson as state party chair for the next two-year cycle. No other candidates were considered for the position. Bleeding Heartland posted background on Olson here. Although the Republican Party of Iowa is dysfunctional in many ways, I prefer their method for choosing a party leader. There’s no reason not to have multiple candidates speak publicly to the state central committee about the party’s pressing tasks and what strengths they would bring to the top job.

Also today, the Iowa Democratic Party announced that Troy Price will be the new executive director. He replaces Norm Sterzenbach, who held that position for six years. Price worked for Governors Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver and later became executive director of the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa. He left that group to serve as political director for President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in Iowa.

Olson and Price have their work cut out for them, with an open U.S. Senate seat to defend and a tough race against Governor Terry Branstad in a midterm election year. The Obama campaign ran a fantastic ground game, but no database or micro-targeting expertise will magically transform a midterm electorate into the presidential-year electorate more friendly to Democratic candidates.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s press release announcing its new officers is after the jump. Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

Free advice for the IDP’s leadership team: don’t invite the media to cover your Soviet-style election if you’re going to kick them out as soon as things get interesting.

Voters in Iowa House district 52 elect a new state representative today to replace Democrat Brian Quirk, who announced his resignation in November. The Democratic candidate is Todd Prichard, who sounds like he’d be an improvement on Quirk. The Republican candidate is Dennis Litterer. Last-minute GOTV must have been terrible for both sides, with the coldest weather of the winter so far hitting Iowa over the weekend.

Prichard took an early vote advantage into election day. A district map, voter registration figures, and absentee ballot numbers are after the jump. I will update this post with election results after polls close at 9 pm.

9:30 UPDATE: Early returns show Prichard leading by about 600 votes, but none of the results are in for Chickasaw County, where Litterer lives.

10:00 UPDATE: Prichard wins, giving Democrats 47 seats in the Iowa House to 53 Republicans. Unofficial returns show that Prichard carried Floyd County by 1,541 votes to 1,006, Chickasaw County by 1,254 votes to 1,222, and the three Cerro Gordo precincts by 129 votes to 111. Total: 2,924 votes for Prichard, 2,339 votes for Litterer, 83 votes for independent candidate Craig Clark, and 5 write-in votes. I always wonder, who goes to the trouble of casting a ballot for a write-in candidate in a special election like this?

The Iowa Secretary of State’s Office posted the statewide statistical report on the 2012 general election this week (pdf). For those wondering what took so long: Iowa county auditors had 60 days after the general election to submit their final reports.  

A few things surprised me when I looked over the numbers for the first time and compared them to the 2008 statewide statistical report (pdf).

UPDATE: I asked the Secretary of State’s Office for a comment on the discrepancy between the certified election results, which showed that 1,589,899 Iowans cast ballots in the general election, and the statewide statistical report’s “total voted” number of 1,572,198. The explanation is at the end of this post.

Voters in Clive, Windsor Heights, Waukee, and about half of West Des Moines will elect a successor to State Senator Pat Ward today in Iowa Senate district 22. Ward’s untimely death in October forced this special election between Republican Charles Schneider and Democrat Desmund Adams. Follow me after the jump for early vote numbers and news from the campaign trail.

UPDATE: Unofficial results from Polk County show Schneider won 2865 votes and Adams 2712 votes. The Dallas County precincts have not reported yet, but they are more Republican-leaning, so it’s safe to say Schneider won this special election.

SECOND UPDATE: Schneider won by 5,371 votes to 4,117 (56.56 percent to 43.36 percent). Huge opportunity for Iowa Democrats lost here.  

Iowa officials certified the 2012 general election results today. Key numbers: 1,589,899 ballots cast, a record turnout in absolute numbers and 73.28 percent of the eligible voters.

President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Iowa by 822,544 votes (51.99 percent) to 730,617 (46.18 percent). Early GOTV carried the election for the president. Among Iowans who cast early ballots in person or by mail, 405,913 voted for Obama and 268,558 for Romney. Among election-day voters, 462,059 voted for Romney and 416,631 for Obama.

The Obama campaign and Iowa Democratic Party did a better job identifying and mobilizing independent supporters to vote early. As of November 5, registered Democrats who had returned early ballots outnumbered registered Republicans who had done so by about 65,000. But Obama received 137,355 more early votes in Iowa than Romney. He must have done well among roughly 200,000 no-party voters who cast early ballots.

The full statewide statistical report will come out sometime in January, after county auditors have submitted their final reports to the Secretary of State’s office.

Iowa Democrats registered more new voters during the closing weeks of the campaign, including those who registered on election day. As of September 1, there were 602,636 active registered Democrats, 620,868 Republicans, and 666,279 no-party voters statewide. But as of December 3, there were 640,776 active registered Democrats, 636,315 Republicans, and 722,348 no-party voters. After the jump I’ve posted an Iowa Democratic Party press release on this subject.

A few days ago, the final recounts ended in Iowa legislative races, and the last Congressional campaign was resolved. It’s time to reveal the winner of Bleeding Heartland’s general election prediction contest.

Now that we’ve all had a few days to take in the election results, candidates and political activists in both parties can reflect on how our time and money could have been better spent during the campaign. After the jump I’ve posted links about Republican and Democratic regrets.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Preliminary results from the Iowa Secretary of State’s website show that President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Iowa by 807,146 votes to 720,323 (51.89 percent to 46.31 percent) amid record participation of 1,555,570 voters statewide.

As expected, the president won a plurality of the vote in fewer Iowa counties this year than in 2008, but he did pick up one county that was a big surprise for me. Some thoughts about the presidential vote in Iowa are after the jump, along with maps showing which counties Obama, Romney, and John McCain carried. You can find vote totals for every county on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

Happy election day, Bleeding Heartland readers! All comments about your voting experience or any campaign you’re watching are welcome in this thread. I’d like to hear more reports about radio and television commercials for Iowa House and Senate candidates. The parties have been spending a ton of money on those lately.

A lot of my friends went to see President Obama and Bruce Springsteen in the East Village of Des Moines last night. It looked like Paul Ryan drew a big crowd near the airport too. I’m standing by my prediction that Obama will win Iowa, but ARG did release a poll yesterday showing Mitt Romney ahead here by 49 percent to 48 percent.

The latest Iowa absentee ballot totals are after the jump, along with thoughts about how well Romney needs to do today to make up his early voting deficit.

Going into election day two years ago, Representative Dave Loebsack appeared to be in real danger of losing his seat in Congress. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was running attack ads against Republican challenger Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who had loaned her campaign about a half-million dollars in the absence of major financial support from the National Republican Congressional Committee. The American Future Fund was bashing Loebsack on television. Loebsack ended up winning re-election by only about 11,500 votes in what should have been a safe Democratic district. If not for the Iowa Democrats’ early voting program, Loebsack might have been swept up by the wave.

This year’s campaign in Iowa’s second Congressional district is winding up without the suspense of 2010. A final review of Loebsack’s race against Republican John Archer is after the jump.

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney both headlined rallies in Dubuque today as two new polls showed the president ahead in Iowa.  

To enter Bleeding Heartland’s election prediction contest, post your guesses as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 6. Predictions submitted by e-mail will not be considered. It’s ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.

No money’s at stake here, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users ModerateIADem (twice), American007, Johannes, and tietack. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.

Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).

Good luck, and remember: you can’t win if you don’t play.

Iowa county auditors had received 557,432 completed ballots as of October 31, surpassing the 545,739 Iowans who cast early votes in the 2008 general election. In addition, roughly 118,000 Iowans had requested absentee ballots by October 31 but not yet returned them to county auditors. Democrats lead Republicans in both ballots requested and ballots returned, but Republicans have a better return rate, which means Democrats need to chase a lot of ballots over the weekend.

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here.

I also posted information from Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz and Attorney General Tom Miller on absentee ballot laws and deadlines. Friday, November 2 is the last day to request an absentee ballot by mail. Monday, November 5 is the last day to vote early in person at a county auditor’s office or satellite location. Voters who never got around to mailing back their absentee ballot can deliver it to the country auditor’s office by 9 pm on November 6, or they can surrender the ballot to precinct polling officials on election day, receiving an ordinary ballot to vote in person.

Four new Iowa polls were released during the past 24 hours, and both Barack Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s campaigns have scheduled multiple rallies in Iowa this week. Follow me after the jump for clips on those stories and related news.

Any comments about the presidential race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added another poll below and excerpts from a new Romney campaign memo on Iowa.

This thread is for any comments about Congressional races you are following, whether in Iowa or in other states. Steve King and Christie Vilsack held their seventh (!) debate tonight, but I was unable to listen, because Windsor Heights holds trick-or-treating the night before Halloween.

Democrats are starting to talk about a net gain of U.S. Senate seats, but I am not that optimistic. While some races are trending toward the Democratic candidates, others where Democrats led last month are tightening (Virginia, Wisconsin).

To me, the most amazing development in a Congressional race is President Bill Clinton campaigning for Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and recording a television commercial for her. Bleeding Heartland readers who are old enough to remember 1990s politics, could you ever have believed that Bill Clinton would be considered an asset to a Democratic candidate in North Dakota a week before the election?  

“Don’t be too proud of this technological terror you’ve constructed.” – Darth Vader

The Obama campaign’s data-driven approach to ground campaigning has been hailed as a miracle of 21st century electioneering. The campaign, it is said, uses cutting edge “microtargeting” technology to prospect, classify, woo, and ultimately turn out supporters to vote Obama.

Iowans have requested a record number of early ballots for the general election with more than a week left to vote by mail or early in person. As of October 24, 565,986 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2008 general election (545,739).  

Iowa Democrats have requested about 75,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in three of the four Congressional districts. On October 23, Republicans finally overtook Democrats in absentee ballot requests in IA-04, where the GOP’s voter registration advantage is more than 50,000.

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

Adrian Gray, a veteran of the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign, has been commenting on early voting trends in various states on twitter. I disagree with some of his Iowa observations and explain why below.  

President Barack Obama rallied supporters in Davenport this morning, and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney is scheduled to campaign in Cedar Rapids tonight. After the jump I’ve enclosed highlights from Obama’s event and other links about the presidential campaign in Iowa. I will update this post later with highlights from the Romney rally.

Bleeding Heartland is updating absentee ballot totals statewide and in the four Congressional districts here every weekday. As of October 23, more than 540,000 Iowans had requested absentee ballots. With today’s early voting included, the statewide ballot requests will surpass the total Iowa early vote in 2008.  

It’s time for another discussion thread on any competitive U.S. House and Senate races. More detailed posts about the four Iowa Congressional districts are in progress, but after the jump I’ve posted the latest information on independent expenditures for and against the major-party candidates. Bleeding Heartland covered the third-quarter financial reports for the Iowa Congressional candidates here. Early voting totals for each of the four Congressional districts are here.

I’ve also added a few links on U.S. Senate races around the country. I’m amazed that Democrats still appear to be favorites to hold a small Senate majority. For me that has been one of the most surprising political stories of the year. Republicans could still win a majority, but they would have to run the table in the tossup races.

Republican Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama in Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of likely voters in Iowa by 49 percent to 48 percent. For Romney, that’s a big improvement since PPP polled Iowa in late September and a much better finding than yesterday’s poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist.

PPP’s new poll also suggests Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins might not be retained. More details are below.

UPDATE: On October 21, PPP released a different Iowa poll conducted during the same period, which showed Obama leading Romney by 49 percent to 48 percent. I’ve added excerpts from that polling memo at the end of this post.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist released its latest Iowa poll today, which shows President Barack Obama ahead of Republican Mitt Romney by 51 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. It’s the best poll result for the president in Iowa this month. We Ask America conducted a one-day survey in Iowa on October 15 and found Obama ahead by 48.7 percent to 45.9 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 1.2 percent. American Research Group found Obama and Romney tied at 48 percent in its poll that was in the field between October 11 and 14. Rasmussen Reports found Obama leading 49 percent to 47 percent in a one-day poll taken October 7.

Details on the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll are after the jump. Early voting and the gender gap are the key components of Obama’s advantage in Iowa.

Twenty days before the general election, 463,219 Iowans had requested absentee ballots–more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2004 general election (460,059).

Also as of October 17, Iowa county auditors had received 284,569 completed absentee ballots, more than the number of Iowans who cast early votes in the 2000 general election (276,836).

Iowa Democrats have requested about 70,000 more absentee ballots than Republicans and lead in ballot requests in all four Congressional districts (though only barely in IA-04, where Republicans have a large voter registration advantage).

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors statewide and in the four Congressional districts. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here, using data posted on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

P.S.- There are three ways to vote early in Iowa. Voting in person at a county auditor’s office or satellite station has a lower error rate than mailing your absentee ballot.

President Barack Obama again pushed early voting and poked a little fun at Mitt Romney during a rally on the Cornell College campus in Mount Vernon today.