It’s put up or shut up time. How are the candidates going to do tomorrow night?
I don’t think all three will finish closely bunched together. Either someone will win by a clear margin, or someone will be in third by a clear margin.
I am having trouble making my final prediction, because I wouldn’t be too surprised by any one of the top three winning. Here goes:
Edwards 35 percent
Obama 28 percent
Clinton 27 percent
Biden 5 percent
Richardson 4 percent
Dodd 1 percent
Kucinich 0 percent
In my precinct: 2 delegates for Edwards, 2 for Clinton, 1 for Obama, 1 for Biden
I would so love to get that third delegate for Edwards, but I fear we will fall short.
On the Republican side, I have no clue about the numbers, but I think the order will be Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Giuliani, Paul, Thompson, Keyes, Cox, Hunter. I don’t think Steve King is going to deliver anything significant to Fred Thompson.
UPDATE: I forgot to include my prediction for Democratic turnout: 140,000. I have no clue about the Republican turnout, except that it will be less than 100,000.
11 Comments
Caucus Linn County
I don’t know for sure about the republicans in my district either. I see more Ron Paul signs than any other candidate. I did notice one Rudy sign but it has since disappeared.
On the democratic side I’ve met many Obama supporters, second is Clinton, and I see no Edwards support the local neighborhoods.
Myself, I have been polled, canvassed, and advertised to no end. I will be going to my 1st caucus Thursday, my plan is to caucus for Kucinich 1st and Obama if Kucinich isn’t viable. I had decided to go that route even before Dennis’ letter yesterday asking his supporters to do just that. I believe it is as important to beat HRC as it is to stand up for true progressive beliefs. Obama isn’t perfect but he is the best shot at beating HRC in my district.
vatosplace Wed 2 Jan 9:31 PM
No prediction
I have no idea what will happen. I’m just praying for Hillary to finish third.
rf Wed 2 Jan 10:19 PM
a friend and fellow Edwards precinct captain
who works with a bunch of Hillary and Obama supporters noticed that the Hillary supporters seem convinced Obama will finish third, while the Obama supporters seem convinced Hillary will finish third. Interesting.
desmoinesdem Wed 2 Jan 11:17 PM
Turnout: Near 190,000 on the Dem side, 80,000 for GOP
Entrance Poll
Folk Hero Barack 31
Edwards 27
Clinton 26
Biden 4
Richardson 5
Kucinich 1
Dodd 2
Second Ballot Delegates
Folk Hero 37
Edwards 31
Clinton 27
Repub order: Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Paul, Giuliani, Thompson, Keyes, Cox, Hunter
Come back tomorrow and compare notes.
dems-will-win Thu 3 Jan 8:43 AM
Ahem! I predicted 37% for Obama
and 190,000 turnout – and got the order right it looks like.
Do I win a prize or something?
dems-will-win Thu 3 Jan 9:25 PM
you get a "4" from me
I’m afraid that I don’t have any other prize to offer…
desmoinesdem Thu 3 Jan 9:55 PM
Thanks Des Moines Dem, a 4 is great! look forward to working with you in the Fall
For Edwards/Obama or Obama/Edwards!
dems-will-win Fri 4 Jan 9:38 AM
I will be working my precinct for the nominee
no matter who it is, and yes, that includes Hillary if she makes a comeback.
desmoinesdem Fri 4 Jan 2:42 PM
Best of luck!
Best of luck to your candidate, dmd! I’m a precinct captain for Obama, and I suspect it’s going to be close in my precinct as well.
iowacubs Thu 3 Jan 9:53 AM
Horse race is decided at the wire
My predictions, which come from someone who has been going to these shebangs since before Jimmy Cater got the nod is this: First round it will be Obama, Hillary, Edwards. 2nd Round realignment Obama, Edwards, Hillary. I think 140,000 attendees sounds pretty close for the Democrats, older population base and cold weather isn’t going to make it easy for the usual old time Democrat to show, but blame everybody who pushed the caucus back to the third of January for that. College kid voting will have a much greater affect this year than in the past, but the turn out numbers will still not be up to par because the University of Iowa dorms are closed and no one wants to come back in below zero weather from warmer climes.
Republicans who wrap themselves in religion out in the western part of the state are going to make a showing for sure, bible thumping is a grand pastime where populations run thin west of Des Moines. I don’t hear any hue and cry over the usual issues of abortion and such by the churches in Eastern Iowa, so it appears they are in a wait and see mode for the Iowa caucus. I think in a lot of cases the business of a Mormon running against bible thumping Huckabee will be easily decided by the regular church going public who generally aren’t Mormons. Republican traction for any of their candidates isn’t up to their usual speed when they are running against each other and not throwing the usual half truths and lies at “tax and spend” Democrats. Straw polling Republicans have little to do at the caucus, usual Republicans aren’t much for deciding things, they are the kind who get behind the one who already has been picked for them and they are good to go. Choices only confuse them, so many will not turn out. 80,000 at best would be what I believe to be an honest estimate.
iowarch Thu 3 Jan 12:20 PM
Iowa City
In my precinct, I predict:
Obama – 3
Edwards – 2
Clinton – 1
Dodd – 1
Dodd had good turnout at his morning rally today.
corncam Thu 3 Jan 1:32 PM