Enter Bleeding Heartland's 2016 Iowa caucuses prediction contest

With no clear leader in either party less than a week before the 2016 Iowa caucuses, this latest installment in Bleeding Heartland’s occasional series of prediction contests should be especially fun. Anyone can participate, regardless of whether you live in Iowa or have ever lived here.

To enter the contest, post your answers to the eight questions enclosed below as comments in this thread before 6 pm on February 1. Valid entries must be submitted as comments here. Predictions sent to me by e-mail or posted on social media will not be considered. It only takes a minute to register as a Bleeding Heartland user (a link is near the upper right corner of this screen). You don’t have to use your real name; feel free to choose a screen name that allows you to post anonymously. You’ll be e-mailed a password for logging in. Then you can comment here or on any other thread. To protect against spammers, your comment will be “pending” until I approve it.

It’s fine to change your mind after making your guesses, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.

No money or prizes are at stake here, just bragging rights. This contest doesn’t work like “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.

1. How many Iowans will participate in the Democratic precinct caucuses on February 1? (The 2004 Democratic caucus turnout was just below 125,000, while 2008 turnout was close to 240,000.)

2. How many Iowans will participate in the Republican precinct caucuses on February 1? (The previous record GOP caucus turnout was around 121,000 in 2012, slightly above the 2008 level.)

3. What percentage of the delegates will Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley win?

4. How many of Iowa’s 99 counties will be carried by Clinton, Sanders, and O’Malley? (In 2008, Barack Obama carried 41 counties, John Edwards 29, and Hillary Clinton 25; in four counties, the top two candidates received the same number of delegates.)

5. What percentage of the vote will the top Republican candidate receive?

6. How many Iowa counties will the top Republican carry? (Although Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum were separated by just a few dozen votes in the 2012 caucus, Santorum carried 65 counties and Romney only sixteen.)

7. Name all Republican candidates you expect to win at least 10 percent of the caucus-goers’ votes, and put them in your expected finishing order (starting with the top vote-getter).

8. Put the following twelve Republican candidates in the correct finishing order. Listed alphabetically, they are Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump.

I will post my own guesses in a comment soon.

  • Prediction (aka guess)

    1. 190,000 (heavy snow beginning about 7:00 p.m. will cut turnout in NW Iowa)
    2. 100,000 (see above)
    3. Clinton, 51%; Sanders, 48%; O’Malley, 1%
    4. Clinton, 60 counties; Sanders, 39 counties; O’Malley, no counties
    5. 30%
    6. 60 counties
    7. Cruz, Trump, Carson, Rubio
    8. Cruz, Trump, Carson, Rubio, Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee, Fiorina, Kasich, Santorum, Gilmore

    • snow on caucus day/night

      Could really hurt Clinton, who depends more on older caucus-goers.

      Thanks for being first out of the gate!

      • Forecast changed

        Now it looks like the snow will not start until Monday night after the caucuses are over. It could be a problem for some of the out-of-state folks trying to leave Iowa on Tuesday.

  • Half predictions, half guesses

    1. 165,000
    2. 140,000
    3. Clinton 55% Sanders 44% O’Malley 1%
    4. 58 Clinton, 40 Sanders, 1 tied
    5. 29%
    6. 46
    7. Trump, Cruz, Rubio
    8. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Paul, Bush, Christie, Huckabee, Kasich, Santorum, Fiorina, Gilmore

  • Revisions for 1 & 2

    1. 195,000
    2. 115,000

  • My contest entry......

    1. Dem turnout 100,000 (I think lower than ’04, motivation dampened by lack of choices + snow)
    2. GOP turnout 130,000 (Trump will juice the #s a little, but not a lot; competitiveness good & barnburner at top, so GOP will eclipse Dems.)
    3. Hillary 60%; Sanders 40%; O’Malley nothing.
    4. Hillary 70 counties, Sanders 29, O’Malley nothing.
    5. Trump 30%.
    6. Trump 70 counties, I say his support spread out, not concentrated.
    7. In order, Trump; Cruz; Rubio; Carson
    8. In order, Trump; Cruz; Rubio; Carson; Bush; Huckabee; Santorum; Christie; Kasich; Fiorina; Paul; Gilmore

  • Guestimations

    1. 205,000
    2. 140,000
    3. Clinton 47%; Sanders 53%; O’Malley 0%
    4. Clinton 66; Bernie 33; O’Malley 0
    5. 28%
    6. 26 counties
    7. Trump, Cruz, Rubio
    8. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Paul, Christie, Bush, Kasich, Huckabee, Fiorina, Santorum, Gilmore

  • My contest entry...

    1. Dem turnout 200,000 (Less candidates to support)
    2. GOP turnout 150,000 (The Trump effect, several candidates)
    3. 50% Sanders; 49% Clinton; 1% O’Malley (How many college students are include in polling numbers?)
    4. 44 Sanders; 55 Clinton; 0 O’Malley
    5. 29%
    6. 72 counties
    7. Cruz, Trump, Rubio
    8. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Bush, Santorum (he’s been living in Iowa for the past year), Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Gilmore

    • Who won?

      .

      • Who won?

        Sorry, forgot to attach the stats from the Caucuses. These numbers should be the official unless Des Moines Register/Wall Street Journal changed from the sources I used.

        Correct Data:
        1. 171,000 Democrat Caucusgoers
        2. 180,000 GOP Caucusgoers
        3. 49.9% Clinton; 49.6% Sanders, 0.6% O’Malley
        4. 59 Counties for Clinton; 37 for Sanders; 3 Tied; 0 for O’Malley
        5. 27.6% of GOP vote for Cruz
        6. 56 Counties won by Cruz
        7. Cruz, Trump, Rubio
        8. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Paul, Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, Huckabee, Christie, Santorum, Gilmore

        From the Group:
        1. 165,000 – snarkylgbtdem
        2. 150,000 – zbert
        3. 50% Sanders, 49% Clinton, 1% O’Malley – zbert
        4. Three Winners (Similar Margins)
        60 Clinton, 39 Sanders – cocinero
        58 Clinton, 40 Sanders, 1 Tied – snarkylgbtdem
        59 Clinton, 40 Sanders – gellerbach
        5. Two Winners (Tied)
        28% – moderateiadem
        28% – desmoinesdem
        6. 55 Counties – desmoinesdem
        7. 6 Winners with Cruz, Trump, Rubio
        zbert, aaroncampil, rf, ademissie, moderateiadem, desmoinesdem
        8. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Paul [End correct order] – ademissie

  • My guesses

    1) 205,000 caucusgoers
    2) 140,000 caucusgoers
    3) Bernie 50%, Hillary 44%, O’Malley 6%
    4) Hillary 50 counties, Bernie 47 counties, Hillary/Bernie tie 2 counties
    5) 33%
    6) 39 counties
    7) Cruz, Trump, Carson, Rubio

  • A house divided

    1. 200,000
    2. 130,000
    3. Clinton 60%, Sanders 40%, OMalley 0%
    4. Clinton 96 counties, Sanders 3
    5. 33%
    6. 60
    7. Trump, Cruz, Rubio
    8. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Kasch, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum, Fiorina, Christie, Gilmore

    I live in a divided house – 3 Sanders and 1 Clinton.

  • Uneducated guessery

    1. 198,000 voters
    2. 137,000 voters
    3. Clinton – 56%, Sanders – 44%, O’Malley – 0% (national convention delegates [projected]; state delegates: Clinton – 50.8%, Sanders – 47.3%, O’Malley – 1.8%) .
    4. Sanders – 49 counties, Clinton – 48 counties, Tied – 2 counties
    5. 29.8% (Trump)
    6. 47 counties (Trump)
    7. Trump, Cruz, Rubio
    8 Trump (29.8%), Cruz (25.8%), Rubio (15.0%), Carson (8.4%), Bush (3.7%), Paul (3.6%), Christie (3.1%), Huckabee (2.9%), Kasich (2.9%), Fiorina (2.5%), Santorum (1.6%), Gilmore (0.3%)

  • And ill-formatted educated guessery at that!

    Apologies.

  • Guesses

    1. 185,000
    2. 125,000
    3. Clinton 52% Sanders 47% O’Malley 1%
    4. Sanders 40 Clinton 59
    5. 31%
    6. 42
    7. Trump, Cruz, Rubio
    8. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Paul, Christie, Kasich, Huckabee, Fiorina, Santorum, Gilmore

  • My just outside the Beltway predictions

    1. 180,000
    2. 136,000
    3. Clinton 53%; Sanders 47%; O’Malley 0% (below 0.5%)
    4. Clinton 69; Sanders 30; O’Malley 0
    5. 32%
    6. 64
    7. Cruz, Trump, Rubio
    8. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Christie, Paul, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Kasich, Gilmore

  • my best guesses

    Since I’m following Iowa politics from some 4600 miles away, I can just take educated guesses concerning such points as voter excitement or Iowa weather but here are my predictions

    1) 150.000
    2) 145.000
    3) Hillary Clinton 52%, Bernie Sanders 47%, Martin O Malley 1%
    4) Clinton 69 counties, Sanders 30 counties
    5) 35 %
    6) 45 counties
    7) Trump, Rubio, Cruz
    8) Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Bush, Santorum, Christie, Paul, Huckabee, Kasich, Fiorina, Gilmore

  • why not?

    1. 155k
    2. 135k
    3. HRC 53, BS 44, MOM 3
    4. HRC 89, BS 10 (none west of Dallas), MOM 0
    5. 28.5
    6. 40
    7. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson

    • Oops forgot 8

      Cruz, Trump, Rubio……Carson, Paul, Christie….Bush, Huckabee, Santorum, Kasich………………Gilmore

  • Predictions

    1.210k

    2. 140k

    3. Hillary-51 Sanders-47 O’Malley

    4. Sanders-53 Clinton-46

    5. 28%

    6. 44

    7. Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Huckabee, Bush, Christie, Santorum, Fiorina, Kasich, Gilmore

    • good to see you!

      For newer Bleeding Heartland readers, ModerateIADem has won two previous election prediction contests at this site.

  • almost forgot to post my own predictions

    Democratic turnout: 145,000.

    Republican turnout: 135,000.

    Clinton 53 percent, Sanders 46 percent, O’Malley 1 percent

    Clinton will carry 70 counties, Sanders 29, O’Malley 0

    The top Republican will get 28 percent of the vote and will carry 55 counties

    Bucking all available polling data: Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Paul. I recognize that Cruz is on the downswing and has made some unforced errors (especially that “voting violation” mailer), but I am just not a believer in the massive first-time caucus-goer turnout for Trump. Cruz is the only Republican running something like a traditional ground game, and I still think he will do best with evangelicals.

    Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Paul, Carson, Christie, Bush, Huckabee, Santorum, Fiorina, Kasich, and Gilmore.

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