Even with perfect methodology–random sampling, neutral question wording, and an accurate likely voter screens–approximately one out of every 20 political polls will be wrong outside the margin of error, just by chance. Two polling firms released snapshots of the Iowa electorate yesterday. They can’t both be right.

Republican candidate John Archer is running his first television commercial since the primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district. It’s mostly a positive spot introducing the candidate and doesn’t mention incumbent Representative Dave Loebsack by name. (The National Republican Congressional Committee went up on tv earlier this month with an attack ad on Loebsack.) The video and annotated transcript of Archer’s commercial are after the jump.

Iowans have long known good stewardship of the state’s natural resources is essential for protecting these assets for future generations.  But now, in an era of pressing environmental challenges and a struggling national economy, more and more Iowans are also looking to environmental protection as a savvy business decision.

The Iowa Environmental Council will highlight their stories at its daylong annual conference, Finding Iowa’s Way:  Economic Solutions for a Healthier Environment, to be held October 4 in Des Moines.

I’ve never been a fan of former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, but until this morning I didn’t take him for someone who would kick a friend when he’s down. Today’s breaking news is Pawlenty resigning as national co-chair of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in order to become CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable.

More than a dozen plants in the smartweed family are native to North America, according to the database at the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center in Texas. Some smartweeds are found in aquatic habitats, but the plants featured after the jump are found in fields, gardens, or along city roads and sidewalks.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

The more I read about Beef Products Inc.’s defamation lawsuit against ABC News over its “pink slime” reporting, the more I’m convinced the maker of lean finely textured beef should not have taken this public relations battle to court.

Early voting starts in Iowa on September 27, but candidates have been encouraging supporters to request early ballots for months. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show that registered Democrats have submitted far more absentee ballot requests than have Republicans, statewide and in all four Congressional districts. Details are below.

UPDATE: Added a table with the latest numbers as of September 18. SECOND UPDATE: Will be updating the absentee ballot totals daily here.

The Siemens corporation announced today that “it will lay off 407 of the 660 workers at the blade manufacturing plant that is one of the five largest employers” in Fort Madison, Iowa (Lee County). Follow me after the jump for more details and reaction from Iowa elected officials and Congressional candidates.

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz told the Des Moines Register that he may sue the federal government for access to the Department of Homeland Security’s Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) database. Schultz needs that database to move forward with a new procedure for removing suspected non-citizens from Iowa’s voter rolls in the future.  

Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan campaigned in Des Moines yesterday, while Vice President Joe Biden kicked off a two-day swing through Iowa in Burlington. I’ve enclosed highlights from both men’s speeches after the jump. I’ll update this post later with clips from Biden’s events today in Ottumwa and Grinnell.

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, a former governor of Kansas, made clear last week that the Obama administration will work with governors who are reluctant to expand Medicaid eligibility in their states.

The longest-lived former U.S. president in history spoke in Des Moines on September 13. Although I wasn’t able to attend his talk at Drake University, I’ve been thinking about how much Jimmy Carter has accomplished since his presidency.

A Polk County District Court judge issued a temporary injunction preventing Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz from implementing new rules on removing registered voters before the 2012 general election.

The first statewide poll on the 2012 judicial retention elections suggests that the four Iowa Supreme Justices who will be on the ballot this November have good chances of being retained. However, the pollster does not distinguish between support for retaining the justices as a group and support for Justice David Wiggins, whom opponents of same-sex marriage rights are trying to defeat.  

One of the Republican Party of Iowa’s candidates for elector resigned yesterday after indicating that she would cast her electoral college ballot for Ron Paul in the event that Mitt Romney wins Iowa this November.

This thread is for any comments related to this week’s assassination of Christopher Stephens, the U.S. ambassador to Libya, and the violent protests at the U.S. embassy in Egypt. Here’s a timeline of events and statements from various officials and politicians. The diplomatic community is mourning Stephens, who became the eighth U.S. ambassador killed in the line of duty since 1950. There were some pro-American and anti-terrorism rallies in Libya on September 12. The U.S. has warships en route to Libya and is tightening security at embassies around the world.

Yesterday several commentators lambasted Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney for bungling his “3 a.m. phone call” moment. While events were unfolding in the Middle East, Romney criticized the Obama administration’s handling of the incidents. As Matt Vasilogambros reported here, the facts do not support Romney’s claim that the president’s “first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.” President Barack Obama told CBS correspondent Steve Kroft, “Governor Romney seems to have a tendency to shoot first and aim later. And as president, one of the things I’ve learned is you can’t do that.”

Yesterday a Polk County District Court judge denied Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz’s request to dismiss a lawsuit over emergency rules on checking Iowa’s voter rolls for non-citizens.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday Schultz answered questions about the rules at the Iowa legislature’s Administrative Rules Review Committee meeting. His responses didn’t impress the Democratic lawmakers on that committee.

Blazing star used to be “abundant in native prairie landscapes” but “have been reduced to fragmented populations due to conversion of prairie to agricultural fields and urbanization.” All of the photographs posted below were taken at a small prairie planting near Gray’s Lake in Des Moines.

This is an open thread; all topics welcome.

A few weeks after reserving television advertising time in Iowa’s second Congressional district, the National Republican Congressional Committee started running a spot against three-term Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack late last week. Loebsack’s campaign launched its first television commercial of the year today.

Both Democratic incumbent Jeff Danielson and Republican challenger Matt Reisetter have started advertising on television in what is expected to be one of Iowa’s most competitive legislative races: Iowa Senate district 30. Both videos and transcripts are after the jump, along with a district map and background on both candidates.