First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2026 state and federal elections. This post first appeared on the Iowa politics with Laura Belin newsletter, where Laura publishes weekly summaries of her radio show, “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The 30-minute program is also available through all podcast platforms.

It’s been quite the week. I woke up on election day to see the New York Times had published Erik Wemple’s story about my years-long battle for access while covering state government. Here is a gift link. Erik’s research and attention to detail were remarkable—though it was strange to have a reporter following me around for a couple of days!

Erik’s article opens with Governor Kim Reynolds’ press secretary closing the door on me in January. Knowing a community has my back has gotten me through many frustrating days, and I will always be grateful to those who reached out then. When I told Danya Issawi my readers are supportive and even protective, that’s what I had in mind. Danya interviewed me recently for a Substack series on local news writers.

I was out late Tuesday night at the Democrats’ main victory party in Des Moines. Spencer Dirks and I were on the air early Wednesday to break down the election that ended the Iowa Republican trifecta and transformed our Congressional delegation from six Republicans and zero Democrats to a 4-2 Democratic split.

The sound file for our November 4 show (a special 60-minute edition) is available through all podcast platforms. Here’s a detailed summary, for those who would rather read than listen.

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I am posting Iowa’s absentee ballot numbers, statewide and for each Congressional district, updated every day the Iowa Secretary of State’s office releases new figures.

You can compare this year’s numbers to daily charts from the last seven election cycles by clicking through to Bleeding Heartland’s archive of absentee ballot totals from 2024, 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012. But use caution when comparing, because Iowans could vote early for 40 days through 2016, and for 29 days in 2018 and 2020. Republicans shortened the early voting period to the current 20 days as part of a wide-ranging effort to suppress early voting in 2021.

In addition, many Iowans (especially Democrats) are more wary of voting by mail this year than in the past. That’s partly because President Donald Trump has tried to interfere with U.S. Postal Service delivery of ballots, and partly because the 2021 law required all ballots to arrive at county auditors’ offices by 8:00 pm on election day. (Late-arriving ballots used to be counted if they were postmarked before election day.)

The upshot is that lower totals for mailed ballots do not necessarily reflect less interest in voting early.

Early voting began on October 14 this year, and the first report from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office appeared on October 15. The office changed the format of its daily absentee ballot reports on October 20. Since the new tables are much more comprehensive than previous incarnations, I am posting those below, rather than creating my own tables, as I’ve done in past years.

Iowa’s first Congressional district was among the closest U.S. House races in the country in 2024 and is a top target this year. Judging by candidates’ early messages, both sides expect access to health care to be a paramount concern for voters.

In her first television commercial of the cycle, which aired in May and June, Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks highlighted her work as a nurse and doctor.

Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan promised to take on insurance companies in her first TV ad, which went up on August 4.

In addition, the Democratic-aligned group 314 Action has announced a large ad buy criticizing Miller-Meeks’ record on pharmaceutical companies and health insurance coverage.

Ed Tibbetts, a longtime reporter and editor in the Quad-Cities, is the publisher of the Along the Mississippi newsletter, where this post first appeared. Find more of his work at edtibbetts.substack.com.

Lately, you haven’t been able to turn on the TV without hearing how great Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks is.

The American Action Network, a special interest group with ties to the U.S. House Republican leadership, has been blanketing area TV stations and online outlets with ads that claim Miller-Meeks, the member of Congress for Iowa’s first district, “led the charge for high-quality, less expensive health care, especially for rural Iowans.” Then they say that we should “thank her for delivering for all of us.”

Less expensive health care?

In what world?

Iowa’s all-Republican Congressional delegation votes in unison on almost every resolution or bill. But last week, U.S. Representatives Zach Nunn (IA-03) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) each parted ways with most of their GOP colleagues on high-profile measures.

Nunn and Miller-Meeks are among the country’s most vulnerable U.S. House incumbents. They have largely supported President Donald Trump’s agenda and remained loyal to House GOP leaders. But in recent weeks, they have taken different paths on an issue likely to be at the center of their 2026 re-election campaigns.

And while Nunn publicly explained why he supported a Democratic bill on health insurance subsidies, Miller-Meeks drew no attention to her votes to override Trump’s vetoes of two uncontroversial bills.

Nunn’s political strategy is easier to understand than Miller-Meeks’. But it may be just as risky.

Sarah Watson had the scoop for the Quad-City Times: U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks no longer officially lives in Scott County, or anywhere in Iowa’s first Congressional district. In July 2025, she changed her voter registration back to the Ottumwa home she shares with her husband.

Aspiring candidates and campaign strategists could learn a lot from how Miller-Meeks has handled questions surrounding her residency over the past four years. It’s hard to believe an experienced politician could botch this issue so badly.

“Good job you did! Great job,” President Donald Trump says to U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in a 30-second commercial that has reached thousands of Iowans on the radio or social media platforms over the past month.

The three-term Republican did not place the ads through her campaign committee, which had accumulated more than $2.6 million cash on hand as of September 30.

Instead, Miller-Meeks—considered one of the country’s most vulnerable House Republicans—has used taxpayer funds to share Trump’s praise with Iowans.

Bleeding Heartland’s review of data from Facebook’s ad library and Federal Communications Commission files suggest that Miller-Meeks’ Congressional office has spent at least $10,000 to run this spot. (Several other taxpayer-funded radio ads have also been in rotation this fall.)

If the 2024 campaign is any indication, Miller-Meeks may spend much more from her Congressional office budget in the coming months, as she seeks to shore up her appeal with conservatives before another competitive primary election in Iowa’s first district.

The only Iowa Republican in Congress who did not receive Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement!” in 2022 has been working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to him.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has stuck close to Trump—literally and figuratively—as she prepares for what could be a tough 2026 primary campaign in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

With a promise “to provide leadership to our country,” Republican David Pautsch officially kicked off his second campaign for Iowa’s first Congressional district on February 27 in Des Moines. Touching on many of the topics he discussed in a recent interview with Bleeding Heartland, he repeatedly contrasted his steadfast conservative beliefs with the “vacillation” of the GOP incumbent, U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

I was unable to attend the campaign launch, as I was in the Iowa House chamber covering floor debate on a bill revoking transgender Iowans’ civil rights protections and legal recognition. The Iowa Standard’s Jacob Hall recorded the event and posted the video on Facebook.

“The grassroots of America love making America great again,” David Pautsch told me during a February 5 telephone interview. “It’s the political establishment people, including and especially the Republican establishment, that is the biggest albatross around our neck.”

Pautsch is counting on the MAGA grassroots as he prepares for a rematch against U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 2026 GOP primary for Iowa’s first Congressional district.

A minister and founder of the Quad Cities Prayer Breakfast, Pautsch received just under 44 percent of the vote in the 2024 primary after running against the incumbent from the right.

I reached out to Pautsch after seeing he had booked the state capitol rotunda on February 27 for a “Congressional candidacy announcement.” Although he hasn’t officially launched his campaign, he agreed to speak on the record about his plans and prospects.

One of the biggest spenders on behalf of U.S. House Democrats launched digital advertising this week targeting U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts. The ads, enclosed in full below, claim the GOP incumbents “could cost you more,” because they support President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for health and human services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

The House Majority PAC’s 501(c)4 affiliate, House Majority Forward, is funding the 30-second spots, part of a $10 million campaign targeting nine potentially vulnerable House Republicans.