Eighth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Iowans could reasonably view the 2016 general election as an anomaly. Diverging sharply from the national mood, this state voted for Donald Trump by more than a 9-point margin, even as Hillary Clinton won the nationwide popular vote by a little more than 2 points. But maybe that was a one-off; Iowa had been a swing state for the previous six presidential elections.

When Joe Biden failed to flip a single Iowa county in 2020—even heavily Catholic counties where he should have done substantially better than Clinton—I concluded that Iowa was no longer a swing state. That post got some pushback from Democrats who thought I was reading too much into the results.

Trump’s third win in Iowa, by his largest margin yet, underscores how far this state has moved from the center of the national electorate. As Democrats search for a way back to winning more statewide and down-ballot races, they need to recognize that reality.

Fourth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

As ticket-splitting has declined in recent election cycles, few Iowa candidates have managed to win where the other party has a big advantage at the top of the ticket. So it was in Iowa’s 2024 Congressional races: former President Donald Trump outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in all four U.S. House districts, which helped GOP incumbents hold off their Democratic opponents.

But one challenger massively outperformed Harris, and Trump barely pulled one underachieving incumbent over the line.

Election analyst Drew Savicki was first to publish the 2024 presidential vote and swing in Iowa’s U.S. House districts. I later confirmed his calculations, using unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

There’s not supposed to be any crying in politics.

Only sometimes there is. My own tears, even.

Iowa Democratic Congressional candidate Lanon Baccam, born in Mount Pleasant and raised by his immigrant parents, spent part of a summer speech talking about the Iowa of our youth when this state soared. Immigrants and blended families were embraced. Vision and kindness and big-heartedness prevailed in the state under Governor Robert Ray as we absorbed abandoned kids and refugees fleeing violence.

At one point Baccam motioned to me in the audience.

“I’m looking at Doug Burns right now, because his family looks like my family,” Baccam said during a speech to the Iowa Farmers Union in Elkhart, rural Polk County.

As misinformation about the federal response to natural disasters hampers relief efforts in the southeast U.S., several Iowa Republicans have seized the opportunity to spread lies about the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Echoing “pants on fire” claims from former President Donald Trump, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Ashley Hinson (IA-02) have repeatedly asserted that FEMA lacks the resources needed to help those harmed by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, because it has spent too much supporting undocumented immigrants. Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) and U.S. Senator Joni Ernst have likewise claimed Americans are being shortchanged due to FEMA’s allegedly excessive spending on migrants.

Those lies are part of a national effort by Trump supporters and the leading pro-Republican cable news network to assist Trump’s campaign. For Iowa Republicans as well, the false talking points direct voters’ attention toward immigration and border security, topics perceived to boost GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

Nunn, Miller-Meeks, and Hinson all invested in election-year messaging about immigration long before the hurricanes made landfall.

Blake Iverson is a member of Central Iowa Democratic Socialists of America.

A crusading fervor has caught hold of many liberal news outlets following the recent Democratic National Convention in Chicago. They marvel at the raw star power on display: the Clintons, the Obamas, the Emhoffs, and even Lil’ John graced the stage to celebrate Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race. They offer something of a benediction to the thousands gathered–elite operatives and rank-and-file activists alike–and readying them to go out and retake the shining city on the hill. 

But there is a striking absence from the convention itself and from the ebullient media coverage: the United States’s actual crusade in the holy land, the genocide in Gaza. While the Democratic National Committee allowed Palestine solidarity activists to hold a panel during the convention, and Vice President Kamala Harris uttered the word “Palestine” during her acceptance speech, the party made it clear, throughout the festivities and at every level, that the policy will not change. The genocide will continue until Israel and the United States finish the job.

Genocide apologists and the cynical within the party claim this is an unfortunate but necessary tradeoff between ending the genocide and electing Donald Trump. They are wrong. The choice is between not ending the genocide and electing Donald Trump.

Libertarian candidates have qualified for the general election ballot in three of Iowa’s four U.S. House districts.

A state party convention in early June nominated Nicholas Gluba in the first Congressional district, Marco Battaglia in the third, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth.

All three candidates spoke to Bleeding Heartland about their goals and priorities at the state capitol on July 29. That was the first day federal candidates who did not compete in a major-party primary could submit nominating papers to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office for the November 5 election.

Marco Battaglia was the Libertarian Party of Iowa’s candidate for attorney general in 2018 and lieutenant governor in 2022. He is running for Congress in Iowa’s third district this year.

I am not a Democrat or a Republican. I am registered Libertarian. I am aware that some baggage comes with that label. I am trying to set a positive example of what the term means both historically and today for as many of my active fellow patriots as is possible.

I would love for all of us on the ballot to debate respectfully together and to run as no party, but the government of Iowa and the federal government make it impossible to do so at this time. I would love to help change this. I would rather serve people and talk about individual issues than talk about political parties. If anyone thinks critically enough about enough issues, they will soon discover that both a left to right spectrum and a two-party system are obsolete.

Marco Battaglia announced on June 16 that he will run for Congress in Iowa’s third district as a Libertarian. His platform includes “promoting agricultural and medical freedom,” combating inflation with “sound money and sound economic reasoning,” and being “a voice for peace and prosperity.”

A longtime resident of Des Moines, Battaglia was the Libertarian nominee for Iowa attorney general in 2018 and for lieutenant governor in 2022, on a ticket with Rick Stewart. Libertarians regained major-party status in Iowa following that election, because Stewart received more than 2 percent of the vote for governor.

A Libertarian convention on June 8 nominated Battaglia, along with two other U.S. House candidates: Lone Tree city council member Nicholas Gluba in the first district, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth district. Aldrich was the Libertarian nominee for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat in 2016; he later was the party’s 2018 candidate in IA-04 and ran for an Iowa House seat in 2022.

Mitch Henry chairs the Iowa Unity Coalition.

As the campaign for Iowa’s third U.S. House district gains momentum, Lanon Baccam emerges as a beacon of hope for progress and a brighter future.

With a proven track record of dedication to public service, Lanon Baccam embodies the values and principles that will lead our nation forward. Lanon is a veteran who served eight years in the U.S. Army and Iowa National Guard and was deployed to Afghanistan in 2004. He has never forgotten his fellow veterans and has dedicated his life to helping them. 

Throughout his career, Lanon Baccam has shown an unwavering commitment to addressing the pressing issues facing our communities. Following his military service, Lanon served in the U.S. Department of Agriculture under former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack. There, he worked to support veterans, expand pathways to jobs in the agriculture industry, and promote training and entrepreneurship opportunities for veterans transitioning to careers in agriculture.

Emily Webb, Kacey Davis, Kavi Chawla, and Shaimaa Aly, who are elected health care leaders in Polk County, co-signed this post.

As health care leaders within our community, we are endorsing Melissa Vine for U.S. Congress in Iowa’s third district. Melissa’s platform directly addresses critical issues affecting all Iowans, and time is of the essence in supporting her.

Melissa is committed to ensuring a livable income for all Iowans, and reforming systems that harm Iowa families. These changes are urgently needed to address the challenges faced by our most vulnerable populations.

State Representative Ken Croken is a Democrat representing Iowa House district 97.

During my time in the Iowa legislature, I’ve learned that voters want a compassionate representative who will fight for them. That’s why I am proud to support Melissa Vine for Iowa’s third Congressional District.

Melissa’s commitment to Iowa’s working families mirrors the priorities I’ve advocated for through my public service. Her connection to the needs of Iowans isn’t just about policies: it’s personal. As the Executive Director of The Beacon, a facility and programming for women recovering from trauma, she has first-hand experience with the daily struggles many Iowans face in our state. This deep-rooted connection to our community distinguishes her as a candidate. 

Lanon Baccam is a combat veteran, former USDA official, and candidate for Iowa’s third Congressional district.

On this International Women’s Day I’m thinking about the nine incredible women in my life. My wife, three mothers-in-law, four sisters, and my mom—Bounmy Baccam—the bravest, most loving, and generous woman I know.

My family’s story traces back to Laos and is deeply impacted by the Vietnam War. A conflict so violent that to this day Laos maintains a notorious distinction of being the most bombed nation on earth. Two million tons of ordnance were dropped on Laos—the equivalent of an entire planeload of bombs every 8 minutes, 24 hours a day, for 9 years on an area the size of Oregon.

Dr. Frantz Whitfield, a native of Des Moines, began his lay ministry experience at Corinthian Baptist Church, which began his journey towards a plethora of preaching opportunities across the capital city, both while residing in Des Moines and even after becoming an ordained pastor serving in Waterloo.

As a preacher, I know considering others is a fundamental aspect of community. Melissa Vine embodies this principle, caring about your dreams and the opportunities available to you.

Undoubtedly, achieving greatness is a challenging endeavor, but commanding greatness is an even more formidable task. The political climate in Iowa has been disheartening, necessitating a candidate capable of tackling difficult issues to guide our great state toward a brighter future. It is with great pride that I endorse my friend, Melissa Vine, to represent the third Congressional district.

State Representative Elizabeth Wilson is a Democrat representing Iowa House district 73, covering most of Marion in Linn County.

To move our state forward, Iowa needs a leader in Washington who shares our values.

As a single mom of four boys, Melissa understands the economic struggles many Iowans face. We need a leader who understands personally what it’s like to face and overcome adversity. Take it from me: Melissa does. 

Iowa’s four U.S. House members stuck with the Republican majority by voting on May 17 to refer a motion to expel U.S. Representative George Santos to the House Ethics Committee. The House had already referred the motion to that committee in February. But after the U.S. Department of Justice indicted Santos on thirteen felony counts including fraudulent campaign contributions and unemployment insurance fraud, Democratic Representative Robert Garcia used a House rule to force a floor vote on the motion.

A two-thirds vote would have been needed to expel Santos. House members approved the referral instead along party lines, 221 to 204.

Two of Iowa’s four U.S. House districts are among the 31 top targets for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee next cycle.

On April 3, Sahil Kapur of NBC News was first to publish the Democratic target list. It includes Iowa’s first and third districts, now represented by Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee executive director Julie Merz told NBC that Democrats will present their candidates “as ‘team normal’ against a chaotic band of “MAGA extremists” they say have taken over the House Republican conference.”