Weekend open thread: Election prediction contest edition

It’s time for another Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest. No prizes will be awarded, but winners will get bragging rights. Can anyone dethrone American007, overall winner of our 2008 election contest?

Enter by answering the following questions. To qualify for the contest, your predictions must be posted as a comment in this thread by 7 am on Tuesday, June 8, 2010. This isn’t like The Price is Right; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether or not they were a little high or low.

1. How many votes will be cast in the Republican primary for Iowa governor? (Hint: about 199,000 Iowans voted in the hard-fought 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary.)

2. What percentages of the vote will Terry Branstad, Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts receive in the Republican primary for governor?

3. What percentages of the vote will Roxanne Conlin, Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen receive in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate?

4. What percentages of the vote will Rob Gettemy, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Steve Rathje and Chris Reed receive in the Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district? Remember, if you expect this nomination to be decided at a district convention, make sure your guess has the top vote-getter below 35 percent.

5. Who will be the top four candidates in the Republican primary in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and what percentages of the vote will they receive? Again, keep the top vote-getter below 35 percent if you expect this nomination to go to a district convention. Your possible answers are Jim Gibbons, Brad Zaun, Dave Funk, Mark Rees, Scott Batcher, Jason Welch and Pat Bertroche.

6. What percentages of the vote will Mike Denklau and Matt Campbell receive in the Democratic primary in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district?

7. What percentages of the vote will Matt Schultz, George Eichhorn and Chris Sanger receive in the Republican primary for secretary of state? (I covered that campaign in this post.)

8. What percentages of the vote will Dave Jamison and Jim Heavens receive in the Republican primary for state treasurer? (The Iowa Republican blog has been covering this race from time to time.)

9. What percentages of the vote will State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad and challenger Clair Rudison receive in the Democratic primary for Iowa House district 66? (Click here for background.)

10. What percentages of the vote will Tom Shaw, Stephen Richards and Alissa Wagner receive in the Republican primary for Iowa House district 8? (Click here and here for background. Keep in mind that although Wagner withdrew from the race and endorsed Shaw, her name will remain on the ballot.)

Don’t be afraid to make some wild guesses. You can’t win if you don’t play!

This is also an open thread, so share whatever’s on your mind.

  • Ok, I'll play.

    [Quick disclaimer.  I am a proponent of Direct Democracy, i.e. Anarchist, so all comments are just for fun satire, sort of.]

    1. How many votes will be cast in the Republican primary for Iowa governor? (Hint: about 199,000 Iowans voted in the hard-fought 2002 Republican gubernatorial primary.)

    A: Far too many for my taste.

    2. What percentages of the vote will Terry Branstad, Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts receive in the Republican primary for governor?

    A: Enough to perpetuate that misconception that what we have is actually a democratic process.

    3. What percentages of the vote will Roxanne Conlin, Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen receive in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate?

    A: Ditto for question #2.

    4. What percentages of the vote will Rob Gettemy, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Steve Rathje and Chris Reed receive in the Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district? Remember, if you expect this nomination to be decided at a district convention, make sure your guess has the top vote-getter below 35 percent.

    A: Uhmmm, ditto yet again.

    5. Who will be the top four candidates in the Republican primary in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and what percentages of the vote will they receive? Again, keep the top vote-getter below 35 percent if you expect this nomination to go to a district convention. Your possible answers are Jim Gibbons, Brad Zaun, Dave Funk, Mark Rees, Scott Batcher, Jason Welch and Pat Bertroche.

    A: Ditto #2

    6. What percentages of the vote will Mike Denklau and Matt Campbell receive in the Democratic primary in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district?

    A: Ditto, yet again.

    7. What percentages of the vote will Matt Schultz, George Eichhorn and Chris Sanger receive in the Republican primary for secretary of state? (I covered that campaign in this post.)

    A: Ditto #2

    8. What percentages of the vote will Dave Jamison and Jim Heavens receive in the Republican primary for state treasurer? (The Iowa Republican blog has been covering this race from time to time.)

    A: Ditto #2

    9. What percentages of the vote will State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad and challenger Clair Rudison receive in the Democratic primary for Iowa House district 66? (Click here for background.)

    A: A lot.

    10. What percentages of the vote will Tom Shaw, Stephen Richards and Alissa Wagner receive in the Republican primary for Iowa House district 8? (Click here and here for background. Keep in mind that although Wagner withdrew from the race and endorsed Shaw, her name will remain on the ballot.)

    Ok, so now for my parting shot.  Why vote, it only encourages them.

  • Dustin Krutsinger

    1. How many votes will be cast in the Republican primary for Iowa governor? 168,000

    2. What percentages of the vote will Terry Branstad, Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts receive in the Republican primary for governor? TB 53, VDP 36 RR 11

    3. What percentages of the vote will Roxanne Conlin, Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen receive in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate? RC 67 BK 20 TF 13

    4. What percentages of the vote will Rob Gettemy, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Steve Rathje and Chris Reed receive in the Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district? MMM 33 RG 28 SR 26 CR 13

    5. Who will be the top four candidates in the Republican primary in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and what percentages of the vote will they receive?  JG 33 BZ 32 DF 16 MR 8

    6. What percentages of the vote will Mike Denklau and Matt Campbell receive in the Democratic primary in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district? NO idea, havent followed the race… MD 56 MC 44

    7. What percentages of the vote will Matt Schultz, George Eichhorn and Chris Sanger receive in the Republican primary for secretary of state? MS 48 GE 38 GS 14

    8. What percentages of the vote will Dave Jamison and Jim Heavens receive in the Republican primary for state treasurer? DJ 56 JH 44

    9. What percentages of the vote will State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad and challenger Clair Rudison receive in the Democratic primary for Iowa House district 66? AAS 62 CR 38

    10. What percentages of the vote will Tom Shaw, Stephen Richards and Alissa Wagner receive in the Republican primary for Iowa House district 8? SR 48 TS 42 AW 10

  • Predictions

    1. An even 200,000.

    2. Branstad 53% Vander Plaats 32% Roberts 15%

    3. Conlin 80% Fiegen 12% Krause 8%

    4. Gettemy 31% Rathje 28% Miller-Meeks 26% Reed 15% (Race goes to convention.)

    5. Zaun 43% Gibbons 40% Funk 7% (Remaining 10% distributed among other candidates.)

    6. I have no idea. Pass?

    7. Schultz 58% Eichorn 41.5% Sanger .5%

    8. Jamison 60% Heavens 40%

    9. Ako 88% Rudison 12%

    10. Richards 51% Shaw 48% Wagner 1%  

    • it's fine to pass

      if you don’t want to guess on one or two questions, in case other Bleeding Heartland readers are tempted to do the same thing.

      I also have no idea what to think about that primary and it’s a big reason I haven’t posted my predictions yet.

  • Drumroll Please...

    1. How many votes will be cast in the Republican primary for Iowa governor? 169,000

    2. What percentages of the vote will Terry Branstad, Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts receive in the Republican primary for governor? Branstad 58, BVP 36 RR 6

    3. What percentages of the vote will Roxanne Conlin, Bob Krause and Tom Fiegen receive in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate? Roxanne 69 BK 21 TF 10

    4. What percentages of the vote will Rob Gettemy, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Steve Rathje and Chris Reed receive in the Republican primary in Iowa’s second Congressional district? MMM 28 RG 33 SR 26 CR 13 – Advantage RG at convention.

    5. Who will be the top four candidates in the Republican primary in Iowa’s third Congressional district, and what percentages of the vote will they receive?  Zaun 32 Gibbons 29  Funk 27  Rees 10 – Advantage FUNK at Convention!

    6. What percentages of the vote will Mike Denklau and Matt Campbell receive in the Democratic primary in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district?

    % is hard to predict here. I’m rooting for Denklau but have a gut feeling Campbell wins in a nail biter.

    7. What percentages of the vote will Matt Schultz, George Eichhorn and Chris Sanger receive in the Republican primary for secretary of state? MS 51 GE 30 GS 19

    8. What percentages of the vote will Dave Jamison and Jim Heavens receive in the Republican primary for state treasurer? DJ 60 JH 40

    9. What percentages of the vote will State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad and challenger Clair Rudison receive in the Democratic primary for Iowa House district 66? AAS 65 CR 35

    10. What percentages of the vote will Tom Shaw, Stephen Richards and Alissa Wagner receive in the Republican primary for Iowa House district 8?

    Richards: 48.5 Shaw: 49.5 AW <2

  • Predictions

    1.210 thousand

    2. Branstad: 53

    BVP: 39

    Roberts: 8

    3. Roxanne: 75

    Fiegen: 17

    Krause: 8

    4. MMM: 31

    Gettemy: 28

    Reed: 25

    Rathje: 16

    (It’s just a hunch that Reed will outperform Rathje despite the advertisements.)

    5.  Zaun: 40

    Funk: 31

    Gibbons: 20

    All others: 9 percent maybe.

    Funk has a stronger following than some people realize in my estimation.

    6. Campbell: 57

    Mike: 43

    I actually donated to Mike because his campaign staff was nice enough to answer a question for me on trade issues, so despite the Fallon endorsement I hope Mike wins.  Matt Campbell needs to stay active as well.  How often do we nominate candidates from this part of the state statewide?  I think its smart to pick someone who already has a base in not always so friendly territory and also someone who holds some fiscally moderate views to peel of some of the Mark Rees type voters around the state.

    7.  Schulz: 52

    Eichorn: 35

    Sanger: 13

    If if I were a conservative I would treat this race as I did the Culver/Blouin/Fallon/Sal showdown.  Schulz strikes me as the mainstream campaign guy like Culver, Sanger would be the conservative idealistic candidate like Fallon.  Eichorn would be Blouin in my eyes, not going to wow anyone, but he’ll carry the torch with adequacy.

    8. Jamison: 65

    Heavins: 35

    I’m just going off the fact that Jamison may have a natural base with veterans.

    9.Ako: 70

    Rudison: 30

    I probably wouldn’t agree with Ako on the nuance of a lot of issues if we were serving in the same caucus in the House, but I see him on Mediacom promoting different programs within Des Moines and thus people would be foolish with a capital F to get rid of him.

    10. Shaw: 65

    Richards: 30

    Wagner: 5

  • my predictions

    because adding them to the diary wouldn’t put a time stamp on the update.

    1. How many votes will be cast in the Republican primary for Iowa governor? The forecast is for rain, which should depress turnout, but my gut tells me the high number of contested GOP primaries for state legislative races and statewide races will lead to a high turnout anyway. I’ll go with 210,000.

    2. I’ve felt all along that Branstad would get at least 60 percent of the vote. Although heavy rain might benefit Vander Plaats, whose supporters are probably more dedicated, I am going with my gut: Branstad 61, Vander Plaats 29, Roberts 10.

    3. Conlin 75, Krause 14, Fiegen 11.

    4. Miller-Meeks 33, Gettemy 29, Rathje 22, Reed 16. Don’t know what would happen at convention.

    5. Zaun 39, Gibbons 30, Funk 21, Rees 10.

    6. No clue at all how this race is going to play out. The union endorsements should be helpful for Campbell, but because Council Bluffs is a larger metro area than Sioux City, I’m going with Denklau 53, Campbell 47.

    7. Schultz 55, Eichhorn 40, Sanger 5.

    8. Jamison 62, Heavens 38.

    9. Ako 68, Rudison 32. Ed Fallon survived some organized, funded primary challengers in this district, and I think Ako will too.

    10. Shaw 51, Richards 47, Wagner 2. And I’m going on record now: I think Shaw will help Susan Bangert hold this district for the Democrats.  

You need to signin or signup to post a comment.