Jeff Morrison is a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative and the publisher of the Between Two Rivers newsletter, where this article first appeared. Find more of his work at betweentworivers.substack.com and iowahighwayends.net.
The Iowa Department of Education’s press release from December 19 said, “State projections developed prior to the passing of the Students First Education Savings Account (ESA) program showed a downward trend in public school enrollment starting in the 2023-24 school year. Likewise, the National Center for Education Statistics projects enrollment at public schools to decrease by 2.7 million students by 2031, a decrease of almost 5% nationally.”
The statement, on its face, is true — but it obscures some essential elements.
- There are now fewer students in Iowa public schools than any time in the modern era, edging out the previous low of 2010-11.
- Excluding a pandemic-related drop between 2019-20 and 2020-21, the percentage loss of public enrollment between 2024-25 and 2025-26 is more than double the greatest loss since 2001-02. It’s the largest percentage loss, period, since 1982-83 to 1983-84.
- The numerical drop in two years (FY25+26) is greater than that of any period in the last four decades (since FY84+85).
- State enrollment projections made through and including 2023 did show a downward trend, but they did not expect the low public numbers seen in the last three years, nor did they anticipate enrollment in private schools surpassing 40,000 for the first time since 2000-01.