Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I encourage readers to post their general election predictions as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 8. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on social media will not be considered. It only takes a minute to register for an account here, log in, and write a comment.
Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. You can change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the Tuesday morning deadline.
No money’s at stake, just bragging rights like those most recently claimed by Bleeding Heartland user zbert for Iowa caucus predictions and JoshHughesIA for having the best guesses about this year’s primary elections. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.
Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).
Good luck, and remember: you can’t win if you don’t play.
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2016 general election? For reference, 1,589,899 Iowans voted in the 2012 general election, and 1,528,715 Iowans voted in the 2008 general election.
2. How many electoral votes will Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump win? (538 total)
3. What percentage of the national popular vote will Clinton and Trump receive?
4. What percentage of the vote will Clinton and Trump win in Iowa?
5. What percentage of the vote will Chuck Grassley and Patty Judge receive in the U.S. Senate race?
6. What percentage of the vote will Rod Blum and Monica Vernon receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?
7. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Christopher Peters receive in IA-02?
8. What percentage of the vote will David Young and Jim Mowrer receive in IA-03?
9. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Kim Weaver receive in IA-04?
10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 57 Republicans and 43 Democrats.
11. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 25 Democrats, 23 Republicans, and one independent. Your answer should add up to 49, because voters in Iowa Senate district 45 will choose Joe Seng’s successor in a December 27 special election.
12. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
13. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
14. What percentage of yes and no retention votes will Iowa Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Cady receive? For reference, Justice David Wiggins received 54.5 percent “yes” votes in 2012.
15. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
16. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?
17. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2017? (435 total) Currently there are 246 Republicans, 186 Democrats, and three vacancies.
18. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2017? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 in the Democratic caucus (including two independents).
19. How many of Iowa’s 99 counties will Clinton and Trump carry? For reference, in 2008, John McCain carried 46 counties, Barack Obama 53. But in 2012, Obama carried only 38 counties, Mitt Romney 61. The latest voter registration totals for all 99 counties are here.
The last question will serve as a tie-breaker, if needed.