Enter Bleeding Heartland's 2016 Iowa general election prediction contest

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I encourage readers to post their general election predictions as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 8. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on social media will not be considered. It only takes a minute to register for an account here, log in, and write a comment.

Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. You can change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the Tuesday morning deadline.

No money’s at stake, just bragging rights like those most recently claimed by Bleeding Heartland user zbert for Iowa caucus predictions and JoshHughesIA for having the best guesses about this year’s primary elections. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.

Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).

Good luck, and remember: you can’t win if you don’t play.

1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2016 general election? For reference, 1,589,899 Iowans voted in the 2012 general election, and 1,528,715 Iowans voted in the 2008 general election.

2. How many electoral votes will Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump win? (538 total)

3. What percentage of the national popular vote will Clinton and Trump receive?

4. What percentage of the vote will Clinton and Trump win in Iowa?

5. What percentage of the vote will Chuck Grassley and Patty Judge receive in the U.S. Senate race?

6. What percentage of the vote will Rod Blum and Monica Vernon receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?

7. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Christopher Peters receive in IA-02?

8. What percentage of the vote will David Young and Jim Mowrer receive in IA-03?

9. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and Kim Weaver receive in IA-04?

10. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 57 Republicans and 43 Democrats.

11. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 25 Democrats, 23 Republicans, and one independent. Your answer should add up to 49, because voters in Iowa Senate district 45 will choose Joe Seng’s successor in a December 27 special election.

12. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

13. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?

14. What percentage of yes and no retention votes will Iowa Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Cady receive? For reference, Justice David Wiggins received 54.5 percent “yes” votes in 2012.

15. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?

16. In the presidential race, which state will be decided by the narrowest margin (again, in terms of percentage of the vote)?

17. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2017? (435 total) Currently there are 246 Republicans, 186 Democrats, and three vacancies.

18. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2017? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 54 Republicans and 46 in the Democratic caucus (including two independents).

19. How many of Iowa’s 99 counties will Clinton and Trump carry? For reference, in 2008, John McCain carried 46 counties, Barack Obama 53. But in 2012, Obama carried only 38 counties, Mitt Romney 61. The latest voter registration totals for all 99 counties are here.

The last question will serve as a tie-breaker, if needed.

  • 2016 entry

    1. 1,500,000
    2. Clinton 273, Trump 265
    3. Clinton 46, Trump 44
    4. Trump 47, Clinton 44
    5. Grassley 57, Judge 39
    6. Blum 53, Vernon 47
    7. Loebsack 60, Peters 40
    8. Young 54, Mowrer 46
    9. King 65, Weaver 35
    10. GOP 55, Democrats 45
    11. GOP 26, Democrats 23
    12. First Congressional District
    13. Senate District 32
    14. Yes 64, No 36
    15. Missouri Senate
    16. North Carolina
    17. 235 GOP, 200 Democrat
    18. 51 GOP, 49 Democrat
    19. Trump 70, Clinton 29

  • 2016 Entry

    1. 1,329,000
    2. Hillary 313 Trump 225
    3. 49% Hillary 44% Trump 7% Other
    4. 46% Hillary 45% Trump 9% Other
    5. 58% Grassley 42% Judge
    6. 48% Blum 52% Vernon
    7. 58% Lobesack 42% Peters
    8. 54% Young 46% Mower
    9. 59% King 41% Weaver
    10. 53 Republicans 47 Democrats
    11. 26 Democrats 23 Republicans
    12. 1st District
    13. Iowa Senate District 32
    14. 60%
    15. Missouri
    16. Iowa
    17. Republicans 237 Democrats 198
    18. 52 Democrats 48 Republicans
    19. Hillary 35 Trump 64

  • 2016 Entry

    1. 1,450,000
    2. Clinton 322, Trump 216
    3. 49% Clinton, 45% Trump, 6% Other
    4. 48% Trump, 44% Clinton, 8% Other (although I hope I’m way off)
    5. 61% Grassley, 39% Judge
    6. 51% Blum, 49% Vernon (once again, hope I’m wrong)
    7. 56% Loebsack, 44% Peters
    8. 55% Young, 45% Mowrer
    9. 64% King, 36% Weaver
    10. 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats
    11. 25 Democrats, 24 Republicans
    12. 1st District
    13. Iowa Senate District 30
    14. 62%
    15. New Hampshire (wish it was Missouri, but Blunt will win by 4+, in my opinion)
    16. North Carolina
    17. Republicans 238 Democrats 197
    18. 50-50, with VP Kaine as tiebreaker
    19. Hillary 24 Trump 75

  • Aiming to Win!

    1. 1,573,083
    2. Clinton: 295 Trump 243
    3. Clinton: 48 Trump 46
    4. Trump 47 – Clinton 44
    5. Grassley 58 – Judge 38
    6. Blum 52 – Vernon 48
    7. Loebsack 58 – Peters 42
    8. Young 52 – Mowrer 46
    9. King 59 – Weaver 41
    10. Republicans 54 – Democrats 46
    11. 25 Republicans, 23 Democrats, 1 Independent
    12. Blum and Vernon
    13. Louis Zumbach v. Dick Whitehead
    14. Mark Cady: 59 percent Yes
    15. Missouri (Blunt v. Kander)
    16. New Hampshire
    17. 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats
    18. 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
    19 Trump: 68, Clinton 31

  • Predictions

    1. 1.44 million

    2. Clinton-3`3 Trump 225

    3. Clinton-53 Trump-45 Others-2

    4. Trump-51 Clinton-48 Others-1

    5. Grassley: 53 Judge: 46 Other: 1

    6. Vernon-51 Blum-49

    7. Loebsack-55 Peters-45

    8. Young-53 Mowrer-47

    9. King-60 Weaver-40

    10. Republicans-56 Democrats-44

    11. Democrats-26 Republicans- 23 Indy-1

    12. Blum v. Vernon

    13. Iowa Senate District 29

    14. Cady-56

    15. Nevada

    16. Ohio

    17. Republicans-232 Democrats-203

    18. 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

    19. Trump-65 Clinton-35

  • East coast guesses

    By now my Iowa touch is pretty much gone, but here we go anyway:

    1. 1,595,000
    2. Clinton 293, Trump 245
    3. Clinton 49%, Trump 46%
    4. Trump 50%, Clinton 46%
    5. Grassley 59%, Judge 39%
    6. Blum 53%, Vernon 47%
    7. Loebsack 55%, Peters 45%
    8. Young 56%, Mowrer 44%
    9. King 66%, Weaver 34%
    10. GOP 57, Dem 43
    11. GOP 27, Dem 22
    12. 1st Congressional District
    13. Senate District 32
    14. Yes, 57%
    15. New Hampshire
    16. Florida
    17. GOP 233, Dem 202
    18. GOP 50, Dem 50
    19. Trump 73, Clinton 26

  • 2016 predictions - Iowa style

    1. 1,581,347
    2. Clinton 323, Trump 215
    3. Clinton 49%, Trump 44.5%
    4. Clinton 46%, Trump 49% (Johnson 4%, Stein 1%)
    5. Grassley 60%, Judge 38%
    6. Blum 51%, Vernon 49%
    7. Loebsack 59%, Peters 41%
    8. Young 54%, Mowrer 45%
    9. King 62%, Weaver 38%
    10. GOP 54, Dems 46
    11. GOP 26, Dems 23
    12. CD-1 – Blum will win by 2 point margin
    13. SD 32
    14. 58% yes for CJ Mark Cady
    15. New Hampshire, where Ayotte will win by 0.6% margin
    16. Florida, which Clinton will win by 0.8% margin
    17. GOP 233, Dems 202
    18. GOP 51, Dems 49
    19. Trump – 70 Iowa counties; Clinton 29 counties

  • Predictions

    1. 1.590M
    2. Clinton 341, Trump 197
    3. Clinton 49%, Trump 45%
    4. Trump 47%, Clinton 45%
    5. Grassley 57%, Judge 42%
    6. Vernon 48%, Blum 47%
    7. Loebsack 55%, Peters 44%
    8. Mowrer 48%, Young 48% (Mowrer wins)
    9. King 61%, Weaver 36%
    10. GOP 54, Democrats 46
    11. Democrats 24, GOP 24, IND 1
    12. 3rd District, Mowrer vs. Young
    13. Iowa HD 58
    14. 60% YES
    15. Missouri, Kander vs. Blunt
    16. Ohio
    17. GOP 234, Democrats 201
    18. Democrats 52, GOP 48
    19. Trump 68, Clinton 31

  • Optimistic

    I’m feeling pretty optimistic about tomorrow. Here’s what I got:
    1. 1,540,00 (down slightly)
    2. 348-190 HRC (That’s a swing state sweep + NE-02 & ME-02)
    3. 48-42 HRC nationally
    4. 46-46 HRC by like 2,000 votes or some very small margin here in Iowa
    5. 62-35 Grassley (sad)
    6. 51-49 Vernon
    7. 62-38 Loebsack
    8. 48-45 Young (prove me wrong, IA-03!!!)
    9. 63-35 King
    10. 52-48 Republican control of the IA House
    11. 25-23-1 Democratic Control (Incumbency!!!)
    12. 1st District
    13. HD 55, Ritter v. Bergen
    14. 60% YES
    15. Missouri Senate
    16. Iowa!!
    17. 205-227 Republican Control (rosy!!)
    18. 53-47 Dem Control (Pick up IL, WI, NH, NC, MO, IN)
    19. 69 for Trump and 30 for HRC

    Prove me right, Iowa!!!!!

  • Cautiously optimistic

    1. 1,602,543
    2. HRC 294 DJT 234
    3. HRC 47%, DJT 42%
    4. DJT 47%, HRC 45%
    5. Grassley 52%, Judge 42%
    6. Vernon 48%, Blum, 47%
    7. Loebsack 60%-43%
    8. Young 47%, Mowrer 43%
    9. King 58%-42% ugh.
    10. 55-46
    11. 26-22-1
    12.1st district
    13.no idea
    14. 53%
    15. Pennsylvania Senate
    16. North Carolina
    17.226 R, 209 Dr
    18. D 50, R 50
    19 70 Trump, 29 Clinton

  • Hoping for better results in reality.

    1. 1,500,000
    2. 284 Clinton, 248 Trump, 6 McMullin (Link to map at the bottom)
    3. 48% Clinton, 45% Trump, 5% Johnson, 2% Other
    4. 47.1% Clinton, 47.0% Trump, 5% Johnson, 0.9% Other
    5. 58% Grassley, 42% Judge
    6. 52% Blum, 48% Vernquist
    7. 58% Loesback, 42% Peters
    8. 50% Young, 49% Mower
    9. 56% King, 44% Weaver
    10. 52-R, 48-D
    11. 24-R, 25-D, 1-I
    12. IA-03, Mower & Young
    13. Senate District 32
    14. 55%
    15. Missouri (Blunt v. Kandar)
    16. Iowa
    17. 223-R, 210-D, 2-I
    18. 52-R, 48-D
    19. 37 Counties Clinton, 62 Counties Trump

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_6,FL_7,NH_2,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,ME1_3,ME2_6,RI_2,NY_1,PA_3,NJ_2,DE_2,MD_1,VA_2,WV_5,OH_6,IN_6,IL_2,CT_3,WI_3,NC_7,DC_1,MA_1,TN_6,AR_5,MO_6,GA_7,SC_7,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_6,NM_2,KS_6,NE_5,NE2_6,SD_6,ND_5,WY_5,MT_6,CO_2,ID_5,UT_8,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1

    • Nightmare Scenario...

      An alternative. With the map I posted, if Trump takes Pennslyvania then the electoral college would be
      264 Clinton, 268 Trump, 6 McMullin.

      No one would be over 270, which then sends the election to congress. If an additional check is needed due to that fight, the courts are tied up at 4-4.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_6,FL_7,NH_2,MI_3,VT_1,ME_2,ME1_3,ME2_6,RI_2,NY_1,PA_7,NJ_2,DE_2,MD_1,VA_2,WV_5,OH_6,IN_6,IL_2,CT_3,WI_3,NC_7,DC_1,MA_1,TN_6,AR_5,MO_6,GA_7,SC_7,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_3,MN_3,OK_5,TX_6,NM_2,KS_6,NE_5,NE2_6,SD_6,ND_5,WY_5,MT_6,CO_2,ID_5,UT_8,AZ_7,NV_3,OR_3,WA_2,CA_1

  • 2016 predictions

    1. 1,480,000
    2. 334 Clinton 204 Trump
    3. 49% Clinton 44% Trump
    4. 46 Clinton 48 Trump
    5. 59 Grassley 41 Judge
    6. 51 Vernon 49 Blum
    7. 60 Loebsack 40 Peters
    8. 52 Young 48 Mowrer
    9. 58 King 42 Weaver
    10. 53 Republicans 47 Democrats
    11. 24 Republicans 26 Democrats
    12. 1st district
    13. Senate district 32
    14. 59 Yes 41 No
    15. Missouri
    16. North Carolina
    17. 231 Republicans 204 Democrats
    18. 51 Democrats 49 Republican
    19. 30 Clinton 69 Trump

  • 2016 predictions

    1. 1,480,000
    2. 334 Clinton 204 Trump
    3. 49% Clinton 44% Trump
    4. 46 Clinton 48 Trump
    5. 59 Grassley 41 Judge
    6. 51 Vernon 49 Blum
    7. 60 Loebsack 40 Peters
    8. 52 Young 48 Mowrer
    9. 58 King 42 Weaver
    10. 53 Republicans 47 Democrats
    11. 24 Republicans 26 Democrats
    12. 1st district
    13. Senate district 32
    14. 59 Yes 41 No
    15. Missouri
    16. North Carolina
    17. 231 Republicans 204 Democrats
    18. 51 Democrats 49 Republican
    19. 30 Clinton 69 Trump

  • doomsday

    Going with my pessimistic scenario today. (Not worst-case, because it could end up a lot worse than this.)

    1. Turnout 1,510,000

    2. Clinton 308, Trump 230 I gave Clinton the Kerry 2004 states (including Maine’s 2nd district) plus VA, CO, NV, NH, FL. I gave Trump IA, OH, NC, and Nebraska’s 2nd district

    3. national: Clinton 49 percent, Trump 45 percent

    4. Iowa: Trump 48 percent, Clinton 46 percent

    5. Grassley 59 percent, Judge 40 percent

    6. Blum 52 percent, Vernon 48 percent

    7. Loebsack 57 percent, Peters 43 percent

    8. Young 50 percent, Mowrer 48 percent

    9. King 60 percent, Weaver 40 percent

    10. 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats

    11. 27 Republicans, 21 Democrats, one independent (the GOP caucus won’t welcome David Johnson back if they win an outright majority of seats)

    12. IA-03

    13. Iowa Senate district 36 (Sodders/Edler)

    14. 56 percent yes for retaining Cady

    15. Tough for me to decide between New Hampshire and North Carolina. Going with New Hampshire

    16. North Carolina (was tempted to pick Ohio, though)

    17. 236 Republicans, 199 Democrats

    18. 50-50 US Senate

    19. 25 counties for Clinton, 74 for Trump

  • best guess

    1. Turnout 1,490,000

    2. Clinton 330, Trump 208; Clinton wins the Kerry states, Iowa, Maines 2nd district, North Carolina and NE 02. Trump wins Ohio

    3. national: Clinton 50 percent, Trump 45 percent

    4. Iowa: Trump 47.5 percent, Clinton 47.7 percent

    5. Grassley 60 percent, Judge 39 percent

    6. Blum 49 percent, Vernon 51 percent

    7. Loebsack 56 percent, Peters 45 percent

    8. Young 49 percent, Mowrer 48.5 percent

    9. King 61 percent, Weaver 39 percent

    10. 55 Republicans and 43 Democrats

    11. 24 Republicans, 24 Democrats and David Johnson

    12. IA-03

    13. Iowa Senate district 32 (Schoenjahn/Johnson)

    14. 59 percent retaining Cady

    15. North Carolina

    16. Iowa

    17. 235 Republicans, 200 Democrats

    18. 49 Republicans, 51 Democrats

    19. 29 Clinton, 70 Trump

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