Has Iowa ever had a primary season more eventful than this year’s? It’s time for politics-watchers to take a stab at predicting the results of next Tuesday’s elections.
No cash or other prizes are at stake, just bragging rights in the Bleeding Heartland community. No doubt 2016 primary election contest winner Josh Hughes will want to defend his title. Perhaps ModerateIADem, winner of the 2010 and 2012 primary election contests, will try for a comeback.
Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. Just post a comment in this thread with your answers to the following ten questions sometime before 7 am central time on Tuesday, June 5.
Only comments posted in this thread will be valid contest entries. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on Facebook or Twitter will not be considered. You need a Bleeding Heartland account in order to post comments here. If you don’t already have one, send me an e-mail and I will set one up for you.
Comments cannot be edited after they have been posted on this site. It’s fine to change your mind about some or all of your answers, though, as long as you post a new comment with your revised predictions before the deadline.
Please try to answer every question, even if it’s just a wild guess. We’re all guessing anyway, since no polls are publicly available for most of these races.
1. How many Iowa Democrats will cast ballots in the gubernatorial primary?
For reference: 148,751 people voted in the last competitive Democratic race for Iowa governor in 2006.
2. What percentage of the vote will each of the six Democratic candidates for governor receive in the primary?
Despite the events of last week, all of these candidates will be listed on the ballot: Nate Boulton, Cathy Glasson, Fred Hubbell, Andy McGuire, John Norris, Ross Wilburn.
3. What percentage of the vote will Abby Finkenauer, Thomas Heckroth, George Ramsey III, and Courtney Rowe receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district?
4. What percentage of the vote will Christopher Peters and Ginny Caligiuri receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s second Congressional district?
Remember, the GOP ballot will list only Peters. Caligiuri is running a write-in campaign.
5. What percentage of the vote will Cindy Axne, Pete D’Alessandro, and Eddie Mauro receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district?
6. What percentage of the vote will Leann Jacobsen, John Paschen, and J.D. Scholten receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s fourth Congressional district?
7. What percentage of the vote will Deidre DeJear and Jim Mowrer receive in the Democratic primary for secretary of state?
8. Who will be the highest vote-getter in the Republican primary for secretary of agriculture, and what percentage of the vote will that candidate receive?
These five candidates will appear on the GOP primary ballot: Ray Gaesser, Chad Ingels, Craig Lang, Mike Naig, Dan Zumbach. According to a poll The Iowa Republican blog commissioned in mid-May, more than two-thirds of respondents didn’t know enough about any of the candidates to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them.
9. What percentage of the vote will Ed Malloy and Mary Stewart receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa Senate district 41?
This southeast Iowa district, where Republican Senator Mark Chelgren is retiring, includes Ottumwa and Fairfield. Bleeding Heartland posted background on the candidates here. According to Josh Hughes, absentee ballots returned from “the Fairfield/rural side of SD 41 surpassed those returned from the Ottumwa side” on May 31.
10. What percentage of the vote will John Mauro and Matt McCoy receive in the Democratic primary for Polk County Supervisor District 5?
Mauro’s the longtime incumbent on the board of supervisors. McCoy is the longtime state senator challenging him.