First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2026 state and federal elections. This post first appeared on the Iowa politics with Laura Belin newsletter, where Laura publishes weekly summaries of her radio show, “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The 30-minute program is also available through all podcast platforms.

It’s been quite the week. I woke up on election day to see the New York Times had published Erik Wemple’s story about my years-long battle for access while covering state government. Here is a gift link. Erik’s research and attention to detail were remarkable—though it was strange to have a reporter following me around for a couple of days!

Erik’s article opens with Governor Kim Reynolds’ press secretary closing the door on me in January. Knowing a community has my back has gotten me through many frustrating days, and I will always be grateful to those who reached out then. When I told Danya Issawi my readers are supportive and even protective, that’s what I had in mind. Danya interviewed me recently for a Substack series on local news writers.

I was out late Tuesday night at the Democrats’ main victory party in Des Moines. Spencer Dirks and I were on the air early Wednesday to break down the election that ended the Iowa Republican trifecta and transformed our Congressional delegation from six Republicans and zero Democrats to a 4-2 Democratic split.

The sound file for our November 4 show (a special 60-minute edition) is available through all podcast platforms. Here’s a detailed summary, for those who would rather read than listen.

“We have a big job ahead of us,” Chris McGowan told a Republican crowd in Sioux City on October 22. “They expect Iowa four to do the heavy lifting for the rest of the state. Are we up for the task?”

McGowan is the GOP nominee in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, an open seat. His remarks underscore why President Donald Trump held that rally in Sioux City, and why Vice President JD Vance headlined an event in Council Bluffs in September.

While Iowans in the first, second, and third Congressional districts could help Democrats win back the U.S. House of Representatives, voters in the fourth district may determine who runs state government.

Republican candidates need big margins in northern and western Iowa in order to win statewide elections. Iowa GOP state chair Jeff Kaufmann screamed at the Sioux City crowd, “It is not an overstatement to say that the fourth district is our secret weapon. We need you again, fourth district! Will you be there for us?”

Signs suggest Republicans may leave votes on the table in the reddest part of Iowa. The two candidates most at risk of underperforming there are U.S. Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and Attorney General Brenna Bird.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com 

My mom warned, if the Fuller Brush man comes knocking, lock the door.

Back then, fast-talking Fuller Brush salesmen literally would stick a foot in the door to make a sale. Mom knew that once they came inside, it was hard to resist their smooth pitch and even harder to push them out.

The modern equivalent of the Fuller Brush man is the slick-talking career politician who never defines what he’s selling, refuses to admit who he really is, and never explains how he’ll pay for his shiny new ideas.

Zach Lahn, Republican candidate for governor, has his foot in Iowa’s door trying to sell his ill-defined ideas. In his latest TV ad, he claims he’s not a politician. Instead, he pretends to be a farmer, or sometimes an educator—but with zero classroom experience or college education classes.

I love Halloween, but Lahn is trying to trick us by pretending to be something he’s not. That won’t be a treat for Iowa public schools.

Phil Montag is a Des Moines area activist and serves on the board of the Iowa Unity Coalition.

Listening to Zach Lahn on the Iowa gubernatorial campaign trail for the past year has been quite a show. To his credit, from the beginning he has put ecology, sustainable agriculture, and water quality front and center in ways that I wish politicians would do more often. 

After watching Randy Feenstra and Adam Steen trying to out-Trump each other and race to the bottom of banal human depravity and white grievance, part of me was happy to see Lahn win the Republican primary. 

Zach Lahn celebrates with supporters on primary election night (photo first published on his campaign’s Facebook page)

Nick Covington is an Iowa parent who taught high school social studies for ten years.

The culture war battles we fight over our public schools are fundamentally disagreements about American values: what does it mean to be an American, and in whose image do we build our public schools?

“When Americans start fighting over their schools, you can be fairly sure of one thing: it probably isn’t really about school.”

— Jennifer Berkshire & Jack Schneider,

The Education Wars: A Citizen’s Guide and Defense Manual

From working as Assistant Secretary of Education in the George H.W. Bush administration to laying the foundation of the modern conservative education reform movement, Diane Ravitch—a one-time champion of No Child Left Behind—spent most of her life as a Republican with conservative values. The story of her life, as told in her 2025 memoir, is the story of the American Century. As today’s culture war on “wokeness” and “leftist indoctrination” targets diversity, equity, and inclusion in schools, Ravitch’s memoir makes a powerful case study for teaching these core American values.

Since the demise of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, we have rarely seen snapshots of Iowa voters not connected to any campaign or group planning to spend heavily on behalf of one candidate.

So it’s worth digging into the numbers Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media released on August 6 after surveying 712 “likely voters” from August 2 through August 4. The toplines show Democrat Rob Sand leading the governor’s race and Republican Ashley Hinson slightly ahead (but within the poll’s margin of error) in the U.S. Senate race. Let’s look under the hood.

State Representative Derek Wulf has experienced a remarkable reversal of fortune since becoming the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor in June. A month ago, he was facing possible foreclosure and default judgments for multiple creditors seeking repayment of six-figure debts.

Iowa court filings indicate that since GOP gubernatorial nominee Zach Lahn chose his running mate, Wulf received a bridge loan, which allowed him to repay at least one major debt, and possibly more. In addition, an unnamed lender may be willing to refinance the obligations that prompted Wulf’s bank to file a foreclosure petition in May.

Neither Wulf’s attorney nor a spokesperson for Lahn’s campaign has responded to detailed questions about who has provided bridge financing, offered collateral to secure a new loan, or agreed to guarantee new loans. At this writing, it’s unclear whether those offering Wulf a financial lifeline include Lahn, any member of Lahn’s family, any donor to Lahn’s campaign, or anyone Iowa law would prohibit from making a gift to state legislators and candidates.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com 

The heavy summer air almost suffocated 10-year-old me as I shuffled into the dark woods clutching an open bag. My older friends coaxed me into a snipe hunt. They barely suppressed giggles as they explained I’d have to be patient, and a flashlight would scare the snipe away. 

I stood shaking with an open bag. My friends evaporated into the night. I hadn’t asked the right questions. I trusted them. Things weren’t the same as they appeared.

I was left holding the bag.

With an election approaching, voters need to ask the hard questions, or we’ll all be left holding the bag and the unfunny joke will be on us. Here are some questions for Zach Lahn, the Republican nominee for governor.

Nick Covington is an Iowa parent who taught high school social studies for ten years.

Iowans today find their rights limited by private, partisan, and parochial interests, where the in-group gets the freedom to flourish and the out-group is free to leave.

State logo and slogan adopted by the Reynolds administration in 2023

Iowa Republican candidates and elected officials have been quick to claim the mantle of “culture” and “heritage” in our state. Back in February, then Iowa Republican gubernatorial candidate, Zach Lahn told Tucker Carlson, “the primary catalyst for me doing this was I believe we are losing our culture and our heritage as a people. That’s my honest belief…Are the traditions and the heritage and the value[s] of our ancestors important to us?”

President Donald Trump now says he wasn’t “given the proper information” before he endorsed U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra for governor, days before Iowa’s primary election.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on June 11, Trump bragged about his “amazing track record” in GOP primaries, claiming, “Every time I endorse, they win.”

A journalist followed up to ask whether the president regretted backing Feenstra in Iowa.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

Democratic candidate for governor Rob Sand has selected Crawford County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer, a cattleman-farmer and deeply rooted rural Iowan from Manilla who ran for the U.S. Senate five years ago, as his lieutenant governor running mate.

The pick fortifies Decorah native Sand’s efforts to bridge the partisan divide in rural Iowa and brings a geographic balance to the ticket.

“A fifth-generation family farmer and cattleman from Crawford County, Dave Muhlbauer represents the best of our state: hard-working, honest, and always willing to help out. I’m proud to have him on Team Sand,” Sand said in a statement. “Dave has a track record of working with everyone to deliver for western Iowa and knows it’s time to rotate the crops in state government. He’ll be a great partner on the trail and an even better lieutenant governor for the people of Iowa.”

Dan Piller was a business reporter for more than four decades, working for the Des Moines Register and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. He covered the oil and gas industry while in Texas and was the Register’s agriculture reporter before his retirement in 2013. He lives in Ankeny.

With the post-primary pause, it’s time for a candid chat about the state of political fashion, and I don’t mean left-right, progressive-conservative trends. I’m talking about the way our male candidates dress.

(I learned years ago to avoid commentary on women’s clothing except to note they are beautiful. Besides, women politicos today tend to dress very well. More about that later. For now, it’s the men I wonder about).

Keith Schneider, a former New York Times national correspondent, is senior editor for Circle of Blue, where this column was first published. He has reported on the contest for energy, food, and water in the era of climate change from six continents. 

Expect the unexpected.

That’s the only certainty of planting season across the Corn Belt. Heat. Frost. Insects. Too much rain, or none at all. Now add the distress the Trump administration has cursed farmers with: Broken markets. Tariffs. Rising fuel costs.

Never, though, has the unexpected included this spring’s surprise: serious consideration of the harm from industrial crop and animal production. Farming’s mammoth water pollution and its consequences for public health are on the ballot in Iowa, where the primary election occurs today.

Candidates of both parties for governor and secretary of agriculture have included among their campaign priorities Iowa’s rising cancer incidence and the nitrate water contamination that may well be responsible. For the first time, the health and environmental damage from farming has moved from the margins to the center of political priorities in Iowa, an agriculture colossus that is the nation’s largest grain and pork producer.

Phoebe Wall Howard is an award-winning reporter who worked for The Des Moines Register, covering organized labor and politics. She now writes the Shifting Gears newsletter on Substack and is a member of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. This article first appeared on Deep Midwest: Politics and Culture.

Warning: This column includes language that may be offensive or upsetting to a person unaccustomed to graphic terms or profanity.

With fewer than 48 hours until the polls open for the Iowa primary election, I read with interest about the heated race for governor among Republicans.

President Trump breathlessly weighed into the race with his Truth Social account on Friday, May 29: “Randy is MAGA all the way! … Randy Feenstra has my Complete and Total Endorsement to be the next Governor of Iowa — RANDY WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”

When I was driving around western Iowa in April — from Iowa City over to Carroll up to Storm Lake and back to Denison — you couldn’t help but notice Feenstra signs dotting the manicured front lawns.

Yet political reporter Laura Belin headlined her piece on May 31, “As Feenstra sinks, GOP establishment hits panic button. Even with Trump’s backing, Feenstra could lose.”

The warning signs were there for months. This week, they became impossible to ignore.

Hours after a new poll showed U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra trailing rival Republican candidate Zach Lahn, President Donald Trump gave Feenstra his coveted “Complete and Total Endorsement” for governor on May 29. In a Truth Social post, Trump declared Feenstra to be “MAGA all the way!” and promised, “RANDY WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”

Trump has sometimes jumped on the bandwagon of candidates poised to win their primaries. But this intervention looks more like a salvage operation.

The wildest part is, Feenstra could still lose the June 2 primary. He is that bad a candidate.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com 

Dad was a master carpenter. He didn’t graduate from vocational school, wasn’t an apprentice, and he didn’t have a framed certificate announcing his skill. He learned by doing.

For him, “Measure twice and cut once” wasn’t an old platitude. It’s what he lived by, and it made him a master of his trade. He believed consequential planning avoids unintended consequences, and jobs that look simple often aren’t.

Now it appears the U.S. is being led by people who don’t even measure once.

“You might be our secret weapon,” State Auditor Rob Sand told hundreds of people attending the Iowa State Education Association’s annual meeting in West Des Moines on April 11. He was speaking because the ISEA PAC decided to recommend the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2026 governor’s race.

ISEA has tens of thousands of members across Iowa’s 99 counties, working in every part of public education: preschool, K-12, community colleges, Area Education Agencies, and school support staff. Those numbers alone would make the group’s endorsement valuable.

Sand sees educators as particularly powerful surrogates for his campaign, because of their diverse political leanings and how connected they are in their communities. Their voices could be helpful in another way, too: public education is a focal point of Sand’s promise to take Iowa in a new direction.

Iowa’s 2026 ballot access controversies lacked the drama of the last midterm election cycle, when one statewide official almost missed the Democratic primary ballot, and a leading candidate for U.S. Senate had to go to the Iowa Supreme Court to keep her candidacy alive.

Still, four candidates failed to qualify for this year’s June 2 primary ballot. Two others had close calls before the State Objection Panel determined they (barely) met the legal standard.

Future candidates, staff, and volunteers can learn from the mistakes that tripped up Julie Stauch, Xavier Carrigan, Jared Gadson, and Eric Pearson, and nearly ended the campaigns of Eddie Andrews and Mike Bousselot.

Bill from White Plains is an Iowa lawyer and political observer with a keen interest in promoting candidates with the character required by the positions they seek.

Alexander Pope mocked literary critics of his day with his comment, “For Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.” The literary references in his 1709 piece, “An essay on criticism,” are lost to time and the short attention span of most people in modern life, but that line endures.

Putting aside the hideous 1997 romantic comedy starring Matthew Perry, the line endures because stupid people are no less stupid in 2026.

Last week, State Representative Eddie Andrews stepped up to become the latest in a long line of idiots, hoping to become the leader of his party and this state. He is helping to pave the way for a brainless stiff from northwest Iowa to win the Republican party’s gubernatorial primary in June.

Despite Iowa’s rightward shift over the past decade, our state is shaping up to be an important 2026 battleground. For the first time since 1968, we have open races for governor and U.S. Senate in the same year. Two of the four U.S. House districts are among the top Democratic targets nationwide. President Donald Trump’s approval rating may be underwater in Iowa, and Democrats are poised to nominate well-funded candidates for state and federal offices.

History tells us that midterm elections often favor the party out of power. Nevertheless, the Iowa landscape is much better for Republicans now than it was during the 2018 election cycle, when Fred Hubbell came within 3 points of winning the governor’s race and Democrats won three U.S. House seats.

It’s time to revisit a topic I explored last June. The GOP’s massive voter registration advantage still makes it hard to construct a winning scenario for Democrats in Iowa’s statewide races—even if Trump’s many failures drive down Republican turnout.

As U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra sought to drive supporters of his campaign for governor to attend the off-year Republican caucuses on February 2, he had a big assist from American taxpayers.

Feenstra spent nearly $33,000 from his Congressional office budget on radio advertising that aired from January 12 to February 6, my review of Federal Communications Commission documents shows. He will spend at least $31,000 more on taxpayer-funded radio ads scheduled to run from February 16 to mid-March.

The U.S. House database of franked communications shows Feenstra also spent official funds on four direct mail pieces in January—three of them timed to reach households during the two weeks before the caucuses. Currently available documents do not show how much was spent on those mailings, but past budget reports suggest the cost ran well into five figures.

Feenstra’s campaign for governor had more than $3.2 million in the bank at the end of 2025—more than enough to execute a robust paid advertising plan without using any of his Congressional office budget.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com 

Some mysteries are difficult to solve. For example, in this classic story problem: “Train A leaves from Chicago for Toledo at 70 miles an hour. Simultaneously Train B leaves Toledo for Chicago at 60 miles per hour. The distance between the cities is 260 miles when do they meet?”

Sure, there’s a mathematical formula to figure it out, but as a distracted 7^th grader I never conquered it.  There were just too many other important questions needing answers. Why is the Chicago train faster? Is there a headwind between Toledo and Chicago or are trains just built slower in Ohio? Who are the people traveling? Why do we want those trains to meet? Are they on the same track? If so, isn’t that the real story and the real problem?

After reading about the recent Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary debate, there’s no mystery about why Iowa’s public schools are at risk. Four of the five contenders are sticking to an old formula that’s put Iowa public schools in jeopardy and caused teachers and future teachers to look for an exit.

A poll in the field this week is testing dozens of messages about the two Democrats running for governor, State Auditor Rob Sand and Julie Stauch, who has worked for many Democratic campaigns and nonprofit organizations.

The survey appears designed to identify Sand’s weaknesses and the strongest arguments a competitor could make before the June 2 Democratic primary. Several questions highlight how Sand has distanced himself from his party or failed to take a stand on issues that matter to many Democratic voters.

A spokesperson for Sand’s campaign confirmed they did not commission the poll but declined further comment. Stauch declined to comment for the record.

Some other entity may have paid for the survey—perhaps a Democratic-aligned group or large donor considering spending to support Sand or Stauch for governor. It’s also possible a Republican-aligned group is thinking about meddling in the Democratic primary to weaken the likely nominee. (The Downballot reported on January 29 that “a prominent GOP consulting firm is financing an obscure group that’s run digital ads and sent out mailers” in support of a Democratic candidate for an upcoming special election in Michigan.)

Sand is the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, with higher name ID, statewide election victories in 2018 and 2022, and more than $13.2 million cash on hand as of December 31, compared to around $12,000 in Stauch’s campaign account. Even so, a strong primary challenge could weaken the front-runner, by forcing his campaign to spend more before the general election period, or by exposing how he has alienated part of the base he would need to win in November.

Julie Stauch is a fifth-generation Iowan and lifelong problem-solver running to be Iowa’s next governor. Learn more about her campaign at www.juliestauchforalliowans.com.

Gubernatorial candidate Julie Stauch issues a letter to all Iowans:

This is not a typical press release. But this is not a typical time. On Saturday evening I stood outside on my front porch at exactly 7 o’clock. Around the entire nation, and perhaps the entire world, thousands stood outside on their porches, with candles and flashlights, to acknowledge the inhumane horror that took place on the streets of Minneapolis that morning. My Minnesota neighbor was murdered by our own federal government.

I have rarely felt such anger as I have this past week, nor as much shame and sadness. To my fellow Iowans and our neighbors across the country who are also sitting with the memories of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, I am here for you. And to my neighbors who were not aware of the atrocity committed by ICE agents or are choosing to look away, I am here for you, too.

I invite you to join me at this moment. This is the last straw. Alex Pretti was a nurse with the Department of Veterans Affairs. He was a federal worker exercising his First Amendment right to freedom of speech.

At long last, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra confirmed on October 28 that he’s running for governor.

For all of his talk about “taking Iowa to new heights”—and boy, was there a lot of it—the Republican front-runner’s rollout won’t get high marks.

A new Iowa poll is testing messages about a $4,000 tax credit to help families cover “approved education expenses,” and suggests that approach may save taxpayer money currently spent on children enrolled in public schools.

It’s not clear who commissioned the text survey, which has been in the field in recent days. The questionnaire points to Randy Feenstra’s campaign for governor, which is technically still in the “exploratory” phase, or some entity planning to support Feenstra for governor. Many of the questions use preferred Republican frames (“education freedom,” parental choice, “limiting government overreach”). The poll asks how important it is for Iowa’s next governor to “work to improve K-12 education,” and tests only one potential match-up: Randy Feenstra vs. Rob Sand. (Last month, Bleeding Heartland covered a different poll testing messages about Feenstra and Sand.)

Homeschoolers are an important Republican constituency, especially among social conservatives. Families who send their kids to private schools—almost all of which are Christian or Catholic—would also welcome an education tax credit, in addition to the taxpayer assistance they already receive through Iowa’s school voucher program (“education savings accounts”).

Feenstra has good reason to search for ways to shore up his support with the “education freedom” crowd. His underwhelming victory over a little-known 2024 primary challenger highlighted troubles on his right flank. He is unpopular among property rights activists who oppose the use of eminent domain to build Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed CO2 pipeline. He has skipped forums involving other Republican candidates for governor, including an Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event in July. Feenstra’s exploratory committee has the resources to pay for opinion research.

A recent poll of “likely Republican voters,” conducted by American Viewpoint, found Feenstra “in a commanding position,” with 41 percent support in the governor’s race and no other GOP candidate above 5 percent. A cautionary note: American Viewpoint’s polls for Feenstra’s U.S. House campaign found the incumbent with a roughly 50-point lead over challenger Kevin Virgil before the 2024 GOP primary. Feenstra ended up winning the nomination in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district by a margin of 60.1 percent to 39.4 percent.

A poll in the field this week previews attack lines Republicans may use next year against State Auditor Rob Sand, the likely Democratic nominee for governor.

Some Iowans have received this survey over the phone, and others over text. The questions enclosed below are taken verbatim from a respondent’s screenshots. A different respondent who took the poll by phone confirmed the question wording.

A quick reminder: although you may feel angry when you hear biased or misleading claims about Democratic candidates, it’s better not to hang up or click away. Take screenshots or detailed notes, or record the phone call, and share the questionnaire with me. (I won’t publish your name.)

Julie Stauch is a Democratic candidate for governor.

My team and I hit the ground running in June, and visited all fifteen Community College districts of Iowa. From the start, I made it clear: this campaign would be different. The old way of running campaigns isn’t working anymore, and I believe Iowans deserve a new approach. 

Over the last three months, I’ve spent my time understanding what people across this state most want from their next governor. The core message I heard was that Iowans want leaders who will focus on the real problems they face. The people of Iowa are fed up with candidates not deeply engaging in conversation with them. 

That’s why I’ve held 27 in-depth interview sessions across these districts, ensuring that every voice is heard and every concern is taken seriously. In fact, during the very first interview session, a woman wrote on her worksheet, “I feel like I’ve been heard for the first time.”

Julie Stauch is a Democratic candidate for governor. She lives in West Des Moines. This column first appeared in the Cedar Rapids Gazette.

In June, after declaring my campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor, I started traveling the state to hold Interview sessions in fifteen Community College districts. The goal is to understand ground level concerns of Iowans through free-flowing conversations. I want to determine what problems most Iowans are concerned about. Iowa’s next governor will need to address those problems.

While most of the participants have been Democrats, there have also been Republicans and no-party voters in the mix. These have been substantive conversations where individual Iowans share what they see as the biggest challenges facing their area and the state and what a successful Iowa would look like. I also answer their questions about my point of view on a variety of issues.

My core reason for running for governor is to solve problems Iowans need solved.

Matthew P. Thornburg is an associate professor at Misericordia University who studies elections. His mother’s side of the family hails from Greene and O’Brien counties, and he maintains close ties to Iowa and its politics.

The use of eminent domain to build carbon capture pipelines is a uniquely controversial issue in Iowa politics. Unlike most issues in the state, which fit neatly into the red vs. blue paradigm of modern U.S. politics, CO₂ pipelines put Iowa’s Republican establishment on the wrong side of most voters in the state and divide the Republican Party base. The issue remains salient in Des Moines as potentially competitive primary and general election contests loom for governor of Iowa in 2026.

Among recent developments in the governor’s race, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-04) has reportedly raised millions of dollars for his bid for the nomination, and has rolled out a slew of endorsements from other Iowa GOP elected officials. Feenstra is no stranger to the pipeline issue. The Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline most heavily affects his district in northern and western Iowa. His 2024 opponents all emphasized the issue: Kevin Virgil in the Republican primary and Democrat Ryan Melton and Libertarian Charles Aldrich in the general election.

Feenstra’s perceived indifference on the CO₂ pipeline offers an opening for rivals in the upcoming Republican primary for governor.

Taylor Kohn is an Iowan advocate and publicist currently residing in Minnesota.

On the first day of Rob Sand’s campaign for governor, he gave an interview to WHO Radio. When the host Simon Conway asked whether trans girls should be allowed to play sports, Sand replied with a flat “no.”

The comment was poorly received by many, prompting the Des Moines Register to reach out to Sand for an interview on the subject. Sand declined, instead providing a statement doubling down on his exclusionary stance: “I’ve been clear that I support common sense policies like the law protecting fairness in women’s sports, and that this year’s law legalizing discrimination in all places of life is wrong.”

It is, of course, dishonest to say in the same breath that one opposes discrimination and that a certain type of discrimination is “common sense.”

“People are excited, and I think so far what we’re seeing is hunger for something different,” State Auditor Rob Sand told me on the day he announced he’s running for governor in 2026.

“The real theme across my work is I’m a problem solver,” Julie Stauch told me shortly before her campaign launch.

I interviewed both candidates about their top priorities and the case they will make to Iowa voters over the coming year. Toward the end, I discuss the biggest challenge facing each contender at this early stage.

Taylor Kohn is an Iowan advocate and publicist currently residing in Minnesota.

State Auditor Rob Sand, the top elected Democrat in Iowa, announced his run for governor on May 12. With Governor Kim Reynolds not seeking re-election, some see Sand’s candidacy as a chance to win the office away from the GOP. I’m among those who would like to see that happen.

Unfortunately, Rob Sand is not offering a real alternative to the party in power.

“President Trump was right about everything—build the wall, end catch-and-release, and stand with law enforcement,” wrote Attorney General Brenna Bird in a May 21 post on her campaign Facebook page. She was near the U.S. border with Mexico, at a press conference organized by the Republican Attorneys General Association.

The Iowa Attorney General’s office didn’t release a statement about the trip before or afterwards, and didn’t post about it on Bird’s official Facebook or X/Twitter feeds.

That makes sense, because Bird didn’t go to Arizona to perform any official duties. The trip was the latest sign that she is desperate to secure President Donald Trump’s endorsement as she considers whether to run for governor in 2026.

State Auditor Rob Sand hasn’t made his 2026 plans official. But a text poll that was recently in the field is another data point suggesting he will run for governor.

A Bleeding Heartland reader provided screenshots of the survey. Many of the questions test messages about Sand without naming him. Other questions seek to gauge how strongly Iowa voters feel about a series of policies or issues affecting the state.

Based on the wording, I would guess that Sand’s campaign (which closed out 2024 with more than $7.5 million in the bank) commissioned the survey. It’s also possible some other entity supporting Sand’s aspirations invested in this research. It’s not clear how many Iowans received the poll or whether the survey sample reflected the partisan make-up of the statewide electorate, or was tailored for specific groups (such as independent or swing voters).

Assuming Sand runs for governor, he will be heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination. But he may have competition in the June 2026 primary: as I first reported on “KHOI’s Capitol Week,” Julie Stauch filed paperwork on April 21 to create a committee for a Democratic candidate for governor. Stauch has worked on many Iowa campaigns, including Dukakis for president in 1988 and U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell’s 2002 re-election bid. Most recently, she was political director for Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 Iowa caucus campaign, managed Mike Franken’s 2022 campaign for U.S. Senate, and advised Kimberly Sheets, who won a 2023 special election for Warren County auditor.

Back to the text poll about Sand, which appeared on research-opinions.com.

More than a year before Iowa’s 2026 primary election, Democrats already have one announced candidate for U.S. Senate (Nathan Sage) and two officially running for the U.S. House (Travis Terrell in the first district and Kevin Techau in the second). More Democrats will launch campaigns for Iowa’s statewide and federal offices in the coming months.

So it’s a good time to preview how this website will cover the next round of Iowa Democratic primaries.

GUIDELINES FOR MY OWN REPORTING

First, I don’t plan to endorse a contender in any competitive Democratic primary. My goal is to produce in-depth reporting on the major races, with details about the candidates and the political landscape that readers may not find in other media outlets.

Second, my coverage will focus on candidates with the capacity to run a credible statewide or district-wide campaign. I don’t mean just front-runners; plenty of little-known candidates have built a following and eventually won the nomination for a major office. I mean that when deciding where to spend my time and energy on individual candidate profiles or surveys of the primary field, I will be looking for signs that a candidate is doing the work this kind of campaign requires.

It will take months to fully assess the fallout from Governor Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek another term in 2026.

But one thing’s for sure: State Auditor Rob Sand’s chances of winning the next governor’s race are substantially higher now than they were before April 11.

Governor Kim Reynolds struck a confident tone when asked this week about a possible 2026 primary against former State Representative Brad Sherman.

In a February 17 news release announcing his campaign for governor, Sherman said, “I look forward to working with President Trump – who I endorsed early and supported in rallies, caucuses, conventions, and elections – in his agenda to restore the America we love.”

It was a not-subtle swipe at Reynolds, who endorsed and campaigned for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis before the 2024 Iowa caucuses.

Although the governor has not confirmed she will seek a third term, she was ready with talking points that would cater to Republican audiences.

“I’LL STAND ON MY BOLD CONSERVATIVE RECORD”

Gray TV Iowa political director Dave Price asked Reynolds on February 18 if she felt confident the president would endorse her in a Republican primary. Here’s my recording of that exchange from the governor’s press conference.

Governor Kim Reynolds hasn’t faced an opponent in a Republican primary since 2008, when she ran for state Senate. But if she seeks a third term in 2026, she will likely compete against a challenger from the right: former State Representative Brad Sherman.

The Iowa Standard reported last month that Sherman intends to run for governor. Speaking to Bleeding Heartland at the state capitol on January 23, Sherman declined to discuss specifics but indicated he has a campaign kickoff planned for February.

His campaign Facebook page was recently updated after a stretch of 21 months with no new posts. His refreshed campaign website is recruiting volunteers to “spread the word about the upcoming primary.” His latest campaign financial disclosure shows no fundraising for the first eleven months of 2024—when Sherman wasn’t seeking re-election to the state House—followed by ten donations totaling $4,030 in December. That month, the campaign committee paid $6,000 to a Republican consulting firm.

To put it mildly, Sherman would face long odds against Reynolds. The governor’s campaign raised $1.8 million last year and started 2025 with more than $3 million cash on hand. Reynolds would have massive establishment support—not only in state, but from the Republican Governors Association, where her former chief of staff serves as executive director. In addition, Iowans are famous for re-electing incumbents.

On the other hand, a sizeable number of Iowa Republicans are open to anti-establishment candidates. Then State Senator Jim Carlin ran for U.S. Senate on a shoestring budget but received 26.5 percent of the 2022 primary vote against Senator Chuck Grassley. Last year, Kevin Virgil received nearly 40 percent of the vote against U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, and David Pautsch managed just under 44 percent against U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, even though both members of Congress massively outspent their GOP challengers.

Four groups would be particularly important for Sherman if he seeks the nomination for governor next year.

State Auditor Rob Sand intends to decide which office he’s running for in 2026 well before the end of next year, he confirmed during a September 30 appearance on Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck Zoom podcast. Sand talked mostly about his work as auditor during the interview. When Gammack opened the floor to questions, I asked about his future plans.

The only remaining Democratic statewide official in Iowa, Sand is widely perceived as a potential candidate for governor in 2026. If he runs, he could clear the Democratic field.

I raised the question of timing because Sand also considered running for higher office in 2021. He ruled out a U.S. Senate bid in May of that year but did not announce he would seek a second term as auditor until early December. Does he plan to leave other prospective candidates for governor hanging for most of 2025, or let Iowans know sooner, perhaps in the summer or early fall?

“So, I’m a human being,” Sand began. He hadn’t gone through that “complicated” and “difficult” process before the last election cycle. “And let me tell you, there’s no one who wishes I would have decided faster more than me. Maybe my wife,” he laughed.

“But it’s hard to figure it out,” Sand went on. There are personal factors to consider as well as “really important decisions” for the state and the public. Weighing his options in 2021 “was really difficult. I have now been through this once before. I think it will be easier, and I don’t think it will take as long this time.”