Dan Guild surveys the possibilities for control of the U.S. House. In his last Bleeding Heartland post, he reviewed generic ballot polling and swings in special elections. -promoted by desmoinesdem

When tidal waves hit, and when we know they are coming

Nothing is more human than the tendency to underestimate how much things change. Few predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union. Though there were signs, most did not anticipate how badly the U.S. and global economies would be hit by the U.S. mortgage crisis.

Anyone who remembers election night 2016 knows well how poorly humans are able to predict politics. In the time I have been active I have seen the same mistake over and over: people underestimate the range of possible outcomes.

Ed Fallon, a leading opponent of the Dakota Access (Bakken) Pipeline, recently told the Des Moines Register that acts of sabotage were “very misguided,” “didn’t accomplish anything significant in terms of stopping the pipeline,” and “alienated a lot of people who we need on our side.” -promoted by desmoinesdem

I want to respond to feedback I received, some of it harsh, to a recent article I wrote about the destruction of equipment along the route of the Dakota Access Pipeline by Jessica Reznicek and Ruby Montoya in 2016/2017. I concede that some of what I wrote previously could have been explained more clearly, so here goes.

Wild quinine (Parthenium integrifolium) has eluded me for years. The species is native to most states east of the Rocky Mountains, but in the wild it is mainly found in high-quality habitats or prairie restorations. There’s a colony along one of the tallgrass prairie trails at the Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge, but I’ve never visited while these flowers are blooming.

Fortunately, Wendie Schneider and Katie Byerly found stands of wild quinine this summer and gave me permission to share their images.

Speaking of rare plants I’ve never managed to photograph, I highly recommend the last two editions of Iowa wildflower Wednesday, featuring other people’s beautiful pictures of purple milkweed and small white lady’s slipper.

Latrice Lacey, an attorney and mother, has been director of the Davenport Civil Rights Commission since 2014. -promoted by desmoinesdem

The Davenport City Council is considering an illegal amendment to our city’s civil rights ordinance, which would eliminate the neutrality and independence of our Civil Rights Commission. The proposed change would decommission a body which has been active since 1962, remove the authority to manage staff, and replace it with a council-led board lacking knowledge of civil rights law enforcement.

In addition, the proposed ordinance would exclude all government and Davenport Schools employees from the protections of the civil rights ordinance. Despite this clear violation of state law and drastic change, council members have claimed there will be no change. Either they haven’t read the draft ordinance, or they are hoping community members haven’t read it.

Only 40 percent of registered Iowa voters approved of Governor Kim Reynolds’ work in the latest quarterly survey by Morning Consult, released on July 25. Some 39 percent of respondents disapproved and 21 percent didn’t know enough about Reynolds to have an opinion.

The findings suggest a noticeable slide in Reynolds’ net approval over the past six months. During the third quarter of 2017, Morning Consult found Reynolds was “off to a solid start, with an approval rating of 45 percent and a disapproval rating of 27 percent.” At that time, 30 percent of Iowa respondents didn’t know enough to have an opinion. The numbers from the fourth quarter of 2017 were little changed: 44 percent approve/29 percent disapprove/27 percent don’t know. Disapproval ticked up among Iowans surveyed from January through March, when the Republican-controlled legislature was in session, but the governor was still clearly in net positive territory: 42 percent approve/35 percent disapprove/23 percent don’t know.

Now, the difference between Reynolds’ approve and disapprove numbers is less than the Morning Consult poll’s 2 percent margin of error. As a general rule, any approval rating below 50 percent suggests an incumbent has reason to worry; 40 percent approval is well into the danger zone.

Before Democratic readers start celebrating, a few cautionary notes are in order:

Poweshiek County Soil and Water Commissioner and farm manager John Clayton comments on a recent study showing that men continue to be over-represented on Iowa’s county-level appointed boards and commissions. -promoted by desmoinesdem

The Des Moines Register recently ran an Associated Press story about how most Iowa counties are not in compliance with the gender balance law.

In this same regard, many Iowa cities, including the City of Grinnell, also reveal themselves as not progressive.

Josh Hughes analyzes sixteen Iowa House races likely to be competitive and points to other districts that could also be in play. Hughes is a Drake University undergraduate and vice president of the I-35 school board. -promoted by desmoinesdem

Iowa Democrats have had a pretty good summer. In recent weeks, election forecasters have moved the races for governor and third Congressional district to “toss-up” status, Fred Hubbell and other Iowa Democrats have blown past Republicans in fundraising, and Iowa Republicans have begun to hit the panic button on an election many believed would not be competitive just one year ago. Democrats appear to have the wind at their back for the first time in several election cycles here, after blowout losses in 2016 and 2014.

Winning back Terrace Hill and Congressional seats is at the forefront of many activists’ minds. Doing so would be hugely impressive and important to stopping reactionary right-wing legislation at the state and federal levels. However, in order to not just stop the bad stuff but also advance good legislation, Democrats will need to do more than just defeat Governor Kim Reynolds. The race for the Iowa legislature, where 25 of 50 Senate seats and all 100 Iowa House seats are up for election this year, will determine what kind of policy will be possible over the next two years in our state.

Francis Thicke is a soil scientist and organic dairy farmer. He has served as the National Program Leader for Soil Science for the USDA-Extension Service and was the 2010 Democratic candidate for Iowa secretary of agriculture. -promoted by desmoinesdem

I submitted the following op-ed to the Des Moines Register, but the newspaper did not print it.

In a recent guest column for the Register, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig presented the usual ag-lobby refrain that Iowa’s nitrate problem is caused by the weather. It is time for Iowa’s citizens to stop listening to this kind of misinformation and learn about the real cause of our nitrate problem, and how we can solve it.

Matt Chapman had a “visceral reaction” to the governor’s campaign ad about mental health. -promoted by desmoinesdem

If you watch Jeopardy! or the local news, you have been seeing a lot of campaign commercials for Governor Kim Reynolds. The first three were biographical in content, and the latest attacks Fred Hubbell over his leadership of the Younkers department store chain. (Iowa Starting Line pointed out that ad featured local GOP activists posing as people affected by store closures.)

The fourth Reynolds campaign spot, “Leader,” gaslights Iowans on our state’s inadequate mental health system.

For the second week in a row, I have the pleasure of sharing images of wildflowers I’ve never found in nature. Purple milkweed (Asclepias purpurascens) is not nearly as rare as the small white lady’s slipper that Katie Byerly featured last week, but it’s much less prevalent than swamp milkweed or butterfly milkweed, let alone common milkweed.

The species is native to much of the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains. According to the Illinois Wildflowers site, you may find purple milkweed on “lower slopes of hill prairies, meadows in wooded areas, thickets and woodland borders, bluffs and open woodlands, oak savannas, glades, and roadsides. This plant usually occurs along prairie edges near wooded areas, rather than in open prairie. It is usually found in higher quality habitats.” Alternatively, you can grow your own; Minnesota Wildflowers advises that this species “will bring the gift of insects and birds to your garden.”

Purple milkweed resembles common milkweed, but its flowers are a deeper color, “it is less hairy overall,” and its seed pods are smooth rather than prickled.

Four naturalists took the enclosed photographs in four different counties.

A Polk County District Court has ordered that four voting restrictions Iowa Republicans enacted in 2017 will be on hold pending resolution of a lawsuit the League of United Latin American Citizens and Iowa State University student Taylor Blair filed in May. Plaintiffs had requested the temporary injunction, noting that the new law (House File 516) could disenfranchise eligible voters in various ways and would disproportionately harm Democrats, who are more likely to cast early ballots.

Bruce Lear calls on members of the “public education family” to “unite to defend what we love.” -promoted by desmoinesdems

The back to school ads have started. Even with heat indexes of 100, those ads send chills down the spine of educators. Those chills are a cocktail of optimism, excitement, worry, and dread, with a garnish of hope and a twist of anger.

As the new school year begins, it’s important to have the public education family around the kitchen table for a meeting. That family includes teachers, professional support staff, administrators, school board members, and parents. Like all families, there is always the weird uncle or cousin you want to hide in the attic, but with November looming, the public education family needs all its members to be speaking in one voice.

“Tariffs are the greatest!” President Donald Trump tweeted today, adding that “All will be Great!”

A few hours later, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced “up to $12 billion in programs” aimed at helping farmers, “in line with the estimated $11 billion impact of the unjustified retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods.”

Trump will surely talk up the assistance at his joint event with Representative Rod Blum (IA-01) in Dubuque on July 26. But the escalating trade war isn’t just affecting farmers. Steel tariffs are hurting manufacturers too. “Whirpool shares plummeted Tuesday after executives blamed rising steel and aluminum costs for diminished quarterly earnings,” Michael Sheetz reported for CNBC on July 24. Whirlpool’s refrigerator factory in Amana is the largest employer in Iowa County.

While Democrats criticized the temporary response to a “self-inflicted wound,” top Iowa Republicans reacted to the farm aid plan in three distinct ways. Blum and Representative Steve King (IA-04) unambiguously praised the president. Their U.S. House colleague David Young (IA-03) was notably more critical of Trump’s policy. Iowa’s U.S. senators, Governor Kim Reynolds, and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig tried to thread the needle, depicting themselves as fighting for Iowa farmers and open markets without denouncing the president’s approach to trade negotiations.

Two of Iowa’s Congressional districts are among the seventeen U.S. House seats where Sabato’s Crystal Ball has adjusted its ratings in favor of Democrats. Until now, the non-partisan election forecaster saw Iowa’s first district (Rod Blum) as a “toss-up” race, IA-03 (David Young) as “lean Republican,” and IA-04 (Steve King) as “safe Republican.”

Today analysts moved Young’s race to “toss-up” and King’s to “likely Republican.”

As always, a few surprises lurked in the campaign finance reports Iowa statewide and legislative candidates were required to file by July 19.

Some Iowa office-holders who are facing tough campaigns made little apparent effort to raise money, even though fundraising capacity is one of the biggest perks of incumbency in American politics.

Jeff Cox sees Democrats “campaigning only on issues that reliable Democratic voters care about.” He thinks a winning message will require addressing broader concerns among Iowans. -promoted by desmoinesdem

In the past decade, the Democratic Party has lost control of both houses of the Iowa legislature as well as the governor’s office. It is difficult to overstate the damage that has been done to the people of Iowa by the Republicans. If they keep control of the governor’s office and legislature next November, they can add the judiciary to their list of conquests. When that happens, things will get even worse–much worse.

Governor Kim Reynolds launched her first negative television commercial on July 20, with a spot focusing on decisions Fred Hubbell made as chief executive of Younkers during the 1980s. The move came a few days after another national election forecaster declared the Iowa governor’s race a “toss up,” as Cook Political Report did last month.

Incumbents who are confident about their standing with voters don’t typically go negative on tv this far out from an election. New campaign disclosures filed on July 19 show that while Reynolds had more cash on hand than her opponent–even after spending $1.2 million on advertising since the end of May–Hubbell more than doubled her fundraising during the same period and will likely be competitive financially through the November election.

Iowa cities may regulate fireworks sales through zoning or permitting rules, as long as those ordinances do not ban such sales or impose burdens on fireworks sellers not affecting other merchants, a federal court held this week.

The hill for Democrats to climb in the Iowa Senate just got steeper. State Senator Chaz Allen announced today that he will not seek a second term because of an unspecified “new business opportunity.”

Randy Richardson, retired associate executive director of the Iowa State Education Association, connects some dots. -promoted by desmoinesdem

The very first sentence on the “About” page of the Iowa Association of School Boards (IASB) website reads, “Since 1946, the Iowa Association of School Boards has been committed to serving Iowa school boards and public schools.” However, public school employees may begin to wonder given some of the organization’s recent actions.