Shortly before election day 2010, Representative Bruce Braley and his staff were sweating it. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent significant funds to help Braley fend off a ton of attack ads funded by conservative groups. Braley defeated Ben Lange by just 4,209 votes. If not for Iowa Democrats’ early vote program and the presence of two minor-party candidates on the ballot, Lange might be in Congress today.

This year, Iowa’s first Congressional district looks far less competitive. A final review of Braley’s rematch against Lange is after the jump, including some fireworks from the candidates’ Iowa Public Television debate last week.  

Many candidates for the Iowa House and Senate tout endorsements by outside groups in their campaign communications. Some of those groups pay for direct mail, phone calls, or even advertising supporting their endorsed candidates.

Iowa’s influential political action committees and advocacy groups have very different ways of getting involved in the state legislative campaign. Follow me after the jump for examples of four distinct strategies.

The Des Moines Register’s new poll by Selzer and Co is the latest survey to give no clear sign of whether voters will retain Iowa Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins on Tuesday.  

President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney both headlined rallies in Dubuque today as two new polls showed the president ahead in Iowa.  

Three-time candidate for Iowa governor Bob Vander Plaats has made news this fall primarily on the “No Wiggins” campaign trail. However, the social conservative group he runs is supporting some Republican Iowa Senate candidates as well.

Last week the FAMiLY Leader launched radio advertising campaigns in two competitive Senate races–but notably, not in the district where Vander Plaats’ longtime right-hand man Matt Reisetter is running.  

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? More posts related to Tuesday’s elections are going up today and tomorrow, so after the jump I’ve enclosed a few links on stories not related to any political campaigns.

This is an open thread. Don’t forget to turn your clocks back one hour before you go to sleep on Saturday night.

To enter Bleeding Heartland’s election prediction contest, post your guesses as comments in this thread before 7 am on November 6. Predictions submitted by e-mail will not be considered. It’s ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.

No money’s at stake here, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users ModerateIADem (twice), American007, Johannes, and tietack. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.

Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).

Good luck, and remember: you can’t win if you don’t play.

The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show larger numbers of registered Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters statewide compared to last month. Democrats and no-party voters gained more registrants than Republicans, possibly because of voter registration drives on college campuses around the state. As of November 1 (pdf), Iowa had 694,558 active no-party voters statewide, 629,443 active Republicans, and 628,043 active Democrats. That’s the smallest GOP voter registration advantage since April.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. Any comments about next Tuesday’s elections are welcome in this thread. Iowans can register to vote on election day by bringing photo identification and proof of residency (like a utility bill or bank statement) to their local precinct.

After landing significant state and local tax incentives, a large corporation confirmed plans yesterday to expand its fertilizer plant in Port Neal (Woodbury County). Officials hailed the “single largest capital investment” in Iowa history, eclipsing the $1.4 billion fertilizer plant project announced in September for Lee County.

More details and reaction to the CF Industries project are after the jump.

Iowa county auditors had received 557,432 completed ballots as of October 31, surpassing the 545,739 Iowans who cast early votes in the 2008 general election. In addition, roughly 118,000 Iowans had requested absentee ballots by October 31 but not yet returned them to county auditors. Democrats lead Republicans in both ballots requested and ballots returned, but Republicans have a better return rate, which means Democrats need to chase a lot of ballots over the weekend.

After the jump I’ve posted early voting numbers from the last three presidential elections in Iowa, along with the latest tables showing absentee ballots requested by voters and returned to county auditors. I’m updating the absentee ballot totals every weekday here.

I also posted information from Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz and Attorney General Tom Miller on absentee ballot laws and deadlines. Friday, November 2 is the last day to request an absentee ballot by mail. Monday, November 5 is the last day to vote early in person at a county auditor’s office or satellite location. Voters who never got around to mailing back their absentee ballot can deliver it to the country auditor’s office by 9 pm on November 6, or they can surrender the ballot to precinct polling officials on election day, receiving an ordinary ballot to vote in person.

Attorney John Ward, the widower of State Senator Pat Ward, has confirmed that he is running to succeed his wife in Iowa Senate district 22. A special election will be held on December 11 to fill the seat. The Democratic candidate will be Desmund Adams. Republicans will choose their candidate at a district nominating convention on November 8.

Earlier this week, the Iowa Republican blog listed eight potential Republican candidates, but not Ward. I suspect most of those named would not compete against Ward. One exception is Windsor Heights Pastor Terry Amman, who could fill the hard-core social conservative niche Jeff Mullen occupied during his primary challenge against Ward.

After the jump I’ve posted the latest voter registration totals in this district and a map showing the area it covers in Clive, Windsor Heights, Waukee, and West Des Moines.

Four new Iowa polls were released during the past 24 hours, and both Barack Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s campaigns have scheduled multiple rallies in Iowa this week. Follow me after the jump for clips on those stories and related news.

Any comments about the presidential race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Added another poll below and excerpts from a new Romney campaign memo on Iowa.

Later this fall, Governor Terry Branstad will begin negotiating new two-year contracts with several labor unions that represent state employees. He will come to the table armed with research that purportedly shows Iowa has been over-compensating its public workers.

Polk County Sheriff Bill McCarthy is facing a strong re-election challenge from Sheriff’s Deputy Sgt. Dan Charleston, who wants to bring the “constitutional sheriff” movement to Iowa’s largest county. Some clips on the sheriff’s race are after the jump, along with the transcript of a positive television commercial McCarthy is running on Des Moines stations.

UPDATE: Added a radio ad for Dan Charleston below.

In a sure sign that Republicans consider House district 43 competitive, State Representative Chris Hagenow’s campaign is spending tens of thousands of dollars on television commercials attacking his Democratic challenger Susan Judkins. The ads repeat several messages a Republican push-poll used against Judkins earlier this fall. My transcript and description of the commercial is after the jump. Bleeding Heartland previewed the House district 43 race here.

This thread is for any comments about Congressional races you are following, whether in Iowa or in other states. Steve King and Christie Vilsack held their seventh (!) debate tonight, but I was unable to listen, because Windsor Heights holds trick-or-treating the night before Halloween.

Democrats are starting to talk about a net gain of U.S. Senate seats, but I am not that optimistic. While some races are trending toward the Democratic candidates, others where Democrats led last month are tightening (Virginia, Wisconsin).

To me, the most amazing development in a Congressional race is President Bill Clinton campaigning for Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and recording a television commercial for her. Bleeding Heartland readers who are old enough to remember 1990s politics, could you ever have believed that Bill Clinton would be considered an asset to a Democratic candidate in North Dakota a week before the election?  

When tea party favorite Jane Jech defeated former State Senator Larry McKibben in the Republican primary to represent Iowa Senate district 36, I expected smooth sailing for Democratic incumbent Steve Sodders. Now this race looks like a tossup. Neither candidate’s advertising is educating voters about meaningful differences on real issues.

Hurricane Sandy has barely made landfall, and more than 2 million people on the east coast are already without power. Although the storm no longer has 90-mph winds, it’s still creating huge storm surges and breaking flood records nearly 200 years old. Flooding inland may be even worse than along the coast, and blizzards are possible in several states.

Any comments related to the storm or its political implications are welcome in this thread. Both President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney cancelled some campaign events scheduled for today and tomorrow, but Romney did headline a Davenport rally this afternoon, and First Lady Michelle Obama stopped in Iowa City and Sioux City today, as planned. Romney’s campaign walked back comments he made during the Republican primaries about privatizing the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

“Don’t be too proud of this technological terror you’ve constructed.” – Darth Vader

The Obama campaign’s data-driven approach to ground campaigning has been hailed as a miracle of 21st century electioneering. The campaign, it is said, uses cutting edge “microtargeting” technology to prospect, classify, woo, and ultimately turn out supporters to vote Obama.

Repeat Democratic candidate Scott Ourth appears well-positioned to win Iowa House district 26, a seat left open by freshman State Representative Glen Massie’s retirement. Ourth takes a fundraising lead into the home stretch and has gained the support of one of Warren County’s best-known GOP activists. Meanwhile, the Iowa House Republican advertising machine seems to have left Steve McCoy behind.