Enter Bleeding Heartland's 2016 Iowa primary election prediction contest

It’s that time of year. For your chance at bragging rights in the Bleeding Heartland community, post a comment in this thread with your answers to the following fifteen questions sometime before 7 am central time on Tuesday, June 7.

Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. It’s fine to change your mind about some or all of your answers, as long as you post a comment with your new predictions before the deadline.

Only comments posted in this thread will be valid contest entries. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on Facebook or Twitter will not be considered. Please try to answer every question, even if it’s just a wild guess. We’re all guessing anyway, since no public polls have been published for most of these races.

Bleeding Heartland user ModerateIADem won this blog’s primary election prediction contests in 2010 and 2012. There was no clear winner two years ago.

1. How many Democrats will cast ballots statewide in the four-way primary for U.S. Senate? Keep in mind that Republicans and no-party voters may change their registrations on June 7 in order to vote in the Democratic primary. For reference, about 158,000 Iowans cast ballots in the five-way GOP primary for U.S. Senate in 2014. The winner on this question will be the person whose guess is closest to the actual turnout, whether high or low. (This isn’t like The Price Is Right, where you have to be close without going over the mark.) UPDATE: Should also add that 148,751 people voted in the 2006 Democratic race for governor, the most competitive statewide primary for Iowa Democrats in the past decade.

2. What percentage of the vote will each of the four Democrats seeking the U.S. Senate nomination (Tom Fiegen, Rob Hogg, Patty Judge, and Bob Krause) receive in the primary? UPDATE: The only public poll I have seen on this race, conducted for Burlington radio station KBUR-AM 1490, showed Judge with 37 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters, Hogg 31 percent, 23 percent undecided, Fiegen 6 percent, and Krause 3 percent. Remington Research Group surveyed 1,361 respondents between May 31 and June 1. SECOND UPDATE: The Des Moines Register’s poll by Selzer & Co put Judge at 42 percent, Hogg 25 percent, Krause 6 percent, and Fiegen 5 percent.

3. What percentage of the vote will Pat Murphy and Monica Vernon receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district?

4. What percentage of the vote will Desmund Adams, Jim Mowrer, and Mike Sherzan receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district?

5. What percentage of the vote will Representative David Young and Joe Grandanette receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district? Note: in the six-way GOP primary to represent IA-03 in 2014, when the seat was open, Young finished fifth with about 15.6 percent of the vote, while Grandanette finished last with 1.6 percent.

6. What percentage of the vote will Representative Steve King and Rick Bertrand receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s fourth Congressional district?

7. Will more Democrats cast ballots in the IA-01 race between Murphy and Vernon, or in the IA-03 race between Adams, Mowrer, and Sherzan?

8. What percentage of the vote will Nate Boulton and Pam Dearden Conner receive in the Democratic primary to represent the open Iowa Senate district 16?

9. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Jo Oldson and Eddie Mauro receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa House district 41?

10. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Dan Kelley and Wesley Breckenridge receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa House district 29? UPDATE: Highly recommend Pat Rynard’s backgrounder on this race. A lot of the establishment in the Newton area, as well as two major labor organizations, have endorsed Breckenridge.

11. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Kevin Koester and perennial candidate Brett Nelson receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa House district 38? Note: in 2014, Nelson won about 21 percent of the vote in his unsuccessful primary challenge to State Senator Jack Whitver.

12. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Jake Highfill and Christian DenOuden receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa House district 39? Note: in 2014 Highfill faced two primary challengers and won the GOP nomination with just 43 percent of the vote.

13. In two open Iowa House seats, two candidates are seeking the nomination in each party. Who will face off in the general election to represent House district 77? The Democrats running are Amy Nielsen and Abbie Weipert. The Republicans running are Paula Dreeszen and Royce Phillips.

14. Who will face off in the general election to represent House district 55? The Democrats running are Steve McCargar and Pat Ritter. The Republicans running are Michael Bergen and Alex Popenhagen.

15. Nine Iowa House members (four Democrats and five Republicans) are facing primary challengers. How many of these incumbents will lose their own party’s nomination?

  • Election entry

    1. Dems 144,000 GOP 119,000
    2. Judge 41% Hogg 31% Bernie uh I mean Fiegen 17% Krause 10% Other1%
    3. Vonica Mernon 53% Murph 47%
    4. Sherzan 40% Mowrer 38% Dez 20% Other 2%
    5. Young 98% Mr. G 2%
    6, King 68% Rick 32%
    7. More votes in 01
    8. Nate 56 % Pam 44%
    Entry 2 b continued

  • Primary contest

    1. 135,000 Democrats
    2. Judge 43% Hogg 41% Fiegen 13% Krause 3%
    3. Vernon 55% Murphy 45%
    4. Sherzan 42% Mowrer 37% Adams 21%
    5. Young 89% Grandanette 11%
    6. King 71% Bertrand 29%
    7. More votes in IA 03
    8. Boulton 52% Pam Dearden Conner 48%
    9. Oldson 54% Mauro 46%
    10. Breckenridge 57% Kelley 43%
    11. Koester 87% Nelson 13%
    12. Highfill 58% DenOuden 42%
    13. Weipert vs Phillips
    14. Ritter vs Popenhagen
    15. One (Kelley)

  • PL's 2016 Iowa Primary Entry

    1. 165,000
    2. PJ 48%, RH 42%, TF 8%, BK 2%
    3. MV 55%, PM 45%
    4. JM 38%, MS 35%, DA % 17
    5. DY 97%, JG 3%
    6. SK 84%, RB 16%
    7. IA-01
    8. NB 56%, PC 44%
    9. JO 60%, EM 40%
    10. WB 54%, DK 46%
    11. KK 83%, BN 17%
    12. CD 53%, JH 47%
    13. AN v PD
    14. PR v AP
    15. 2

  • Election entry (contd)

    9. Jo 55 Fearless 45
    10. Lieutenant Breck 55 Not Lieutenant Dan 45
    11. Koester 84% Nelson 16%
    12. Jake 52% Christian 48% (the first name alone is worth 10 pts in THAT district. Recall him advertising as CHRIS Van Ouden in his eye doc days)
    13.Abbie v Royce
    14. Ritter v Popp
    15. One. Goodbye Dan Kelley.
    Bonus primary prediction: Eric goes South in HD 40 GOP primary. Scott Reed to face John Forbes in the general.

  • Contest

    1. 138,000
    2. Judge 45%, – Hogg 42%, – Fiegen 8% -Krause 4% – write in 1%
    3. Vernon 62% – Murphy 38%
    4. Sherzan 47% – Mowrer 40% – Adams 13%
    5. Young 96% G(Not spelling it) 4%
    6. King 82% Bertrand 18%
    7. More in IA03
    8. Nate 55% Pam D 45%
    9. Oldson 66% Fearless leader 34%
    10. Breckendridge 56% Kelley 44%
    11. Koester 88% Nelson 12%
    12. Highfield 62% Denouden 38%
    13. Weipert, Phillips
    14. Ritter, Poppenhagen
    15. 2

  • Upset alert!

    1. 135,000 Democrats
    2. HOGG 46% Judge 44% Fiegen 8% Krause2%
    3. Vernon 65% Murphy 35%
    4. Sherzan 42% Mowrer 33% Adams 26%
    5 Young 98% Grandanette 2%
    6 King 90% Bertrand 10% (Abandon all hope)
    7. More votes in IA 03
    8. Boulton 60% Pam Dearden 40%
    9. Oldson 62% Mauro 38%
    10. Kelley 51% Breckenridge 49%
    11. Koester 92% Nelson 8%
    12. Highfill 58% DenOuden 42
    13. Weipert vs Phillip
    14. Ritter vs Popenhagen
    15. 3

  • Low turnout

    1. 116,000 Democrats
    2. Judge 45%, Hogg 38%, Fiegan 11%, Krause 6%
    3. 56-44 Vernon
    4. Sherzan 41%, Mowrer 38%, Adams 21%
    5. 92-8 Young
    6. 65-35 King
    7. First district
    8. 52-48 Boulton
    9. 58-42 Oldson
    10. 53-47 Breck
    11. 75-25 Koester
    12. 54-46 Highfill
    13. Nelson v. Phillips
    14. Ritter v. Berger

    I will be very surprised if Democratic turnout surpasses 120,000. Just haven’t seen the organization for it.

    • I'm also expecting low turnout

      You went even lower than I did, and I wouldn’t be surprised if your guess turns out to be more accurate.

  • Most races won't be close

    125,000
    Judge 55%, – Hogg 32%, – Fiegen 8% -Krause 4% – write in 1%
    Vernon 60% – Murphy 40%
    Sherzan 47% – Mowrer 33% – Adams 20%
    Young 94% Grand 6%
    King 72% Bertrand 28%
    More in IA03
    Nate 47% Pam D 53%
    Oldson 72% Fearless leader 28%
    Breckendridge 62% Kelley 38%
    Koester 90% Nelson 10%
    Highfield 48% Denouden 52%
    Weipert, Phillips
    Ritter, Poppenhagen
    2

  • Predictions by Aaron Camp

    1) 170,000 Iowa Democrats
    2) Patty Judge 39%, Rob Hogg 38%, Tom Fiegen 20%, Bob Krause 3%
    3) Monica Vernon 56%, Pat Murphy 44%
    4) Mike Sherzan 40%, Jim Mowrer 34%, Desmund Adams 26%
    5) David Young 64%, Joe Grandanette 36%
    6) Steve King 71%, Rick Bertrand 29%
    7) 1st Congressional District
    8) Pam Dearden Conner 51%, Nate Boulton 49%
    9) Eddie Mauro 52%, Jo Oldson 48%
    10) Wesley Breckenridge 57%, Dan Kelley 43%
    11) Kevin Koester 66%, Brett Nelson 34%
    12) Jake Highfill 53%, Christian DenOuden 47%
    13) Abbie Weipert vs. Royce Phillips
    14) Pat Ritter vs. Alex Popenhagen
    15) 1 incumbent loses re-nomination

  • Predictions

    1. 155,000 Iowa Dems

    2. Judge: 44 Hogg: 39 Fiegen: 12 Krause: 5

    3. Vernon: 53 Murphy: 47

    4. Mowrer: 41 Sherzan: 39 Adams: 20

    5. Young: 80 Joe: 20

    6. King: 77 Betrand: 23

    7. IA-3

    8. Boulton-54 Dearden-46

    9. Oldson-53 Mauro-47

    10. Breckenridge-55 Kelley-45

    11. Koester-70 Nelson-30

    12. Highfill-60 DenOuden-40

    13, Wippert/Phillips

    14. Ritter/Popenhagen

    15, 1 (Kelley)

    I just hope Fiegen’s percentage isn’t too high. It will be a sign that the IA Dem Party may be lost in the wilderness.

  • my predictions

    1. I expect low turnout from Democrats statewide. 130,000

    2. Judge 47 percent Hogg 39 percent Fiegen 8 percent Krause 6 percent

    3. Vernon 55 percent, Murphy 45 percent

    4. Sherzan 45 percent, Mowrer 40 percent, Adams 15 percent

    5. Young 92 percent, Grandanette 8 percent

    6. King 85 percent, Bertrand 15 percent

    7. IA-03

    This is where it got really hard for me. Any of the next three state legislative primaries could go either way.

    8. Conner 52 percent, Boulton 48 percent

    9. Oldson 53 percent, Mauro 47 percent

    10. Breckenridge 54 percent, Kelley 46 percent

    11. Koester 86 percent, Nelson 14 percent

    12. DenOuden 52 percent, Highfill 48 percent

    These were total shots in the dark for me:

    13. Nielsen vs Dreeszen

    14. Ritter vs. Bergan

    15. one

  • I'm more confident on some of these then others

    1) 110,000 Iowa Democrats
    2) Patty Judge 52%, Rob Hogg 38%, Tom Fiegen 6%, Bob Krause 4%
    3) Monica Vernon 58%, Pat Murphy 42%
    4) Jim Mowrer 48%, Mike Sherzan 40%, Desmund Adams 12%
    5) David Young 91%, Joe Grandanette 9%
    6) Steve King 75%, Rick Bertrand 25%
    7) 1st Congressional District
    8) Nate Boulton 53%, Pam Dearden Conner 47%,
    9) Eddie Mauro 54%, Jo Oldson 46%
    10) Wesley Breckenridge 55%, Dan Kelley 45%
    11) Kevin Koester 60%, Brett Nelson 40%
    12) Jake Highfill 53%, Christian DenOuden 47%
    13) Abbie Weipert vs. Royce Phillips
    14) Pat Ritter vs. Alex Popenhagen
    15) 2 Incumbents lose

  • A change

    I wish to lower my earlier Dem turnout prediction to 121,000. Low turnout.

  • Predictions

    1. 123,000
    2. Judge 46%, Hogg 39%, Fiegen 10%, Krause 5%
    3. Vernon 56% Murphy 44%
    4. Sherzan 47% Mowrer 40% Adams 13%
    5. Young 95% Grandanette 5%
    6. King 80% Bertrand 20%
    7. IA-01
    8. Connor 53% Boulton 47%
    9. Olson 55% Mauro 45%
    10. Kelley 52% Breckenridge 48%
    11. Koester 75% Nelson 25%
    12. Highfill 59% DenOuden 41%
    13. Weipert and Phillips
    14. Ritter and Popenhagen
    15. 2

  • Today is the Day

    1.) 135,000
    2.) Judge 46%, Hogg 44%, Fiegen 8%, Krause 2%
    3.) Vernon 56% Murphy 44%
    4.) Sherzan 47% Mowrer 40% Adams 13%
    5.) Young 95% Grandanette 5%
    6.) King 80% Bertrand 20%
    7.) IA-03
    8.) Connor 53% Boulton 47%
    9.) Olson 55% Mauro 45%
    10.) Kelley 55% Breckenridge 45%
    11.) Koester 75% Nelson 25%
    12.) Highfill 59% DenOuden 41%
    13.) Weipert and Phillips
    14.) Ritter and Popenhagen
    15.) 1

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