It’s that time of year. For your chance at bragging rights in the Bleeding Heartland community, post a comment in this thread with your answers to the following fifteen questions sometime before 7 am central time on Tuesday, June 7.
Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. It’s fine to change your mind about some or all of your answers, as long as you post a comment with your new predictions before the deadline.
Only comments posted in this thread will be valid contest entries. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on Facebook or Twitter will not be considered. Please try to answer every question, even if it’s just a wild guess. We’re all guessing anyway, since no public polls have been published for most of these races.
1. How many Democrats will cast ballots statewide in the four-way primary for U.S. Senate? Keep in mind that Republicans and no-party voters may change their registrations on June 7 in order to vote in the Democratic primary. For reference, about 158,000 Iowans cast ballots in the five-way GOP primary for U.S. Senate in 2014. The winner on this question will be the person whose guess is closest to the actual turnout, whether high or low. (This isn’t like The Price Is Right, where you have to be close without going over the mark.) UPDATE: Should also add that 148,751 people voted in the 2006 Democratic race for governor, the most competitive statewide primary for Iowa Democrats in the past decade.
2. What percentage of the vote will each of the four Democrats seeking the U.S. Senate nomination (Tom Fiegen, Rob Hogg, Patty Judge, and Bob Krause) receive in the primary? UPDATE: The only public poll I have seen on this race, conducted for Burlington radio station KBUR-AM 1490, showed Judge with 37 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters, Hogg 31 percent, 23 percent undecided, Fiegen 6 percent, and Krause 3 percent. Remington Research Group surveyed 1,361 respondents between May 31 and June 1. SECOND UPDATE: The Des Moines Register’s poll by Selzer & Co put Judge at 42 percent, Hogg 25 percent, Krause 6 percent, and Fiegen 5 percent.
3. What percentage of the vote will Pat Murphy and Monica Vernon receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district?
4. What percentage of the vote will Desmund Adams, Jim Mowrer, and Mike Sherzan receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district?
5. What percentage of the vote will Representative David Young and Joe Grandanette receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district? Note: in the six-way GOP primary to represent IA-03 in 2014, when the seat was open, Young finished fifth with about 15.6 percent of the vote, while Grandanette finished last with 1.6 percent.
6. What percentage of the vote will Representative Steve King and Rick Bertrand receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s fourth Congressional district?
7. Will more Democrats cast ballots in the IA-01 race between Murphy and Vernon, or in the IA-03 race between Adams, Mowrer, and Sherzan?
8. What percentage of the vote will Nate Boulton and Pam Dearden Conner receive in the Democratic primary to represent the open Iowa Senate district 16?
9. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Jo Oldson and Eddie Mauro receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa House district 41?
10. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Dan Kelley and Wesley Breckenridge receive in the Democratic primary to represent Iowa House district 29? UPDATE: Highly recommend Pat Rynard’s backgrounder on this race. A lot of the establishment in the Newton area, as well as two major labor organizations, have endorsed Breckenridge.
11. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Kevin Koester and perennial candidate Brett Nelson receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa House district 38? Note: in 2014, Nelson won about 21 percent of the vote in his unsuccessful primary challenge to State Senator Jack Whitver.
12. What percentage of the vote will State Representative Jake Highfill and Christian DenOuden receive in the Republican primary to represent Iowa House district 39? Note: in 2014 Highfill faced two primary challengers and won the GOP nomination with just 43 percent of the vote.
13. In two open Iowa House seats, two candidates are seeking the nomination in each party. Who will face off in the general election to represent House district 77? The Democrats running are Amy Nielsen and Abbie Weipert. The Republicans running are Paula Dreeszen and Royce Phillips.
14. Who will face off in the general election to represent House district 55? The Democrats running are Steve McCargar and Pat Ritter. The Republicans running are Michael Bergen and Alex Popenhagen.
15. Nine Iowa House members (four Democrats and five Republicans) are facing primary challengers. How many of these incumbents will lose their own party’s nomination?