“President Trump was right about everything—build the wall, end catch-and-release, and stand with law enforcement,” wrote Attorney General Brenna Bird in a May 21 post on her campaign Facebook page. She was near the U.S. border with Mexico, at a press conference organized by the Republican Attorneys General Association.

The Iowa Attorney General’s office didn’t release a statement about the trip before or afterwards, and didn’t post about it on Bird’s official Facebook or X/Twitter feeds.

That makes sense, because Bird didn’t go to Arizona to perform any official duties. The trip was the latest sign that she is desperate to secure President Donald Trump’s endorsement as she considers whether to run for governor in 2026.

All four Iowans in the U.S. House voted on May 22 to pass a federal budget reconciliation package combining massive tax cuts with deep spending cuts on health care and food assistance.

The early morning vote on the “One Big Beautiful Act” (adopting President Donald Trump’s preferred phrase) followed an all-night debate. House leaders rushed the vote before the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) could analyze a manager’s amendment released on the evening of May 21, which made many substantive changes to tax provisions and deepened the planned Medicaid cuts.

House members approved the measure by 215 votes to 214, with two Republicans joining all Democrats to vote no, and one Republican voting “present.” The one-vote margin means U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), Zach Nunn (IA-03), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) each can claim to have cast the deciding vote to cut taxes. They did it without waiting for a nonpartisan analysis of the costs and impacts for their constituents.

This vote will likely become a central theme for Democratic candidates in Iowa’s 2026 Congressional campaigns—and the governor’s race, if Feenstra becomes the GOP nominee. Within hours, Congressional challengers Travis Terrell (IA-01), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), and Jennifer Konfrst (IA-03) blasted the vote in social media posts and fundraising emails. A video of Miller-Meeks running away from Social Security Works executive director Alex Lawson as he presses her about Medicaid cuts has gone viral on several social media platforms and will surely be seen in television commercials.

Tens of thousands of Iowans will lose their health insurance, food assistance, or both if the “big, beautiful bill” becomes law. Meanwhile, the package would raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion and add at least $2.3 trillion to the deficit (or perhaps $3.2 trillion) over the next ten years.

Two Democrats launched campaigns this past week in Iowa’s third Congressional district, one of the party’s top 2026 pickup opportunities in the U.S. House. Republican Representative Zach Nunn held off challenger Lanon Baccam in 2024, winning by roughly the same four-point margin by which Donald Trump carried the district. But in the last midterm election while Trump was president, Democratic challenger Cindy Axne defeated another two-term GOP incumbent in the Congressional district anchored by the Des Moines metro area.

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales see IA-03 as a “lean Republican” district for 2026, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views this race as a toss-up.

I interviewed State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott and State Representative Jennifer Konfrst about their priorities and the case they will make to Democrats as they compete for the chance to face Nunn in November.

I’m not aware of any other Democrats seriously considering this race. State Representative Austin Baeth, who said earlier this year he might run for Congress, confirmed to me on May 8 that he will seek a third term in Iowa House district 36. Though there is plenty of time for others to join the field, they would struggle to compete against Trone Garriott and Konfrst, who are experienced candidates and fundraisers with the capacity to run strong district-wide campaigns.

“We have to take our message to the voters,” State Representative Brian Meyer told reporters on May 8, soon after his Democratic colleagues elected him to be the chamber’s next minority leader.

State Representative Jennifer Konfrst has led Iowa House Democrats since June 2021 but is stepping down from that role once the legislature adjourns for the year. She announced on May 8 that she’s running for Congress in Iowa’s third district.

Meyer will lead the smallest Democratic contingent in the Iowa House in 55 years (the chamber now has 67 Republicans and 33 Democrats). As he seeks to build back, he intends to highlight economic issues and target seats in mid-sized cities that were once Democratic strongholds. Toward that end, Meyer plans to take a “little more aggressive” approach during floor debates, and showcase a wider range of House Democrats when communicating with the public.

Raising enough money for the 2026 election cycle will likely be his biggest challenge.

Two Iowa jurists are among more than 150 former state and federal judges who wrote to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi this week “to condemn the Trump Administration’s attacks on the judiciary,” including the April 25 arrest of Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Hannah Dugan.

Former U.S. District Court Judge Mark W. Bennett served in the Northern District of Iowa from 1994 to 2019, when he retired. Former Iowa Supreme Court Chief Justice Marsha Ternus served on Iowa’s highest court from 1993 through 2010, the last four years as chief justice. She left the bench after Iowa voters did not retain her and two other justices in the aftermath of the court’s unanimous Varnum v Brien ruling on marriage equality.

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in the White House have brought the U.S. an economy weakened by tariffs, a depreciating dollar, and the worst stock market performance during a new presidency since 1974. Trump now has historically low approval ratings, even on his handling of the economy—which had long been his strongest public opinion metric. Economists and market analysts increasingly see a recession likely to come this year, and consumer confidence just dropped to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But to hear U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson tell the story, the country has experienced “100 days of WINNING under President Trump!” The Republican from Iowa’s second Congressional district told reporters on May 2 that the president is “ushering in the new era, the golden age for our economy.”

Whether she’s speaking to a national television audience, her social media followers, the press, or a hostile town hall crowd, Hinson is working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to Trump.

Her tight embrace of a polarizing president could hurt her with swing voters in 2026 but may be essential for her 2028 ambitions.

State Auditor Rob Sand hasn’t made his 2026 plans official. But a text poll that was recently in the field is another data point suggesting he will run for governor.

A Bleeding Heartland reader provided screenshots of the survey. Many of the questions test messages about Sand without naming him. Other questions seek to gauge how strongly Iowa voters feel about a series of policies or issues affecting the state.

Based on the wording, I would guess that Sand’s campaign (which closed out 2024 with more than $7.5 million in the bank) commissioned the survey. It’s also possible some other entity supporting Sand’s aspirations invested in this research. It’s not clear how many Iowans received the poll or whether the survey sample reflected the partisan make-up of the statewide electorate, or was tailored for specific groups (such as independent or swing voters).

Assuming Sand runs for governor, he will be heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination. But he may have competition in the June 2026 primary: as I first reported on “KHOI’s Capitol Week,” Julie Stauch filed paperwork on April 21 to create a committee for a Democratic candidate for governor. Stauch has worked on many Iowa campaigns, including Dukakis for president in 1988 and U.S. Representative Leonard Boswell’s 2002 re-election bid. Most recently, she was political director for Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 Iowa caucus campaign, managed Mike Franken’s 2022 campaign for U.S. Senate, and advised Kimberly Sheets, who won a 2023 special election for Warren County auditor.

Back to the text poll about Sand, which appeared on research-opinions.com.

Democrat Angel Ramirez will soon be the first Latina to serve in the Iowa legislature, after winning the April 29 special election in House district 78 by a commanding margin.

Ramirez outperformed the partisan lean of the district, defeating Republican Bernie Hayes by 2,742 votes to 721 (79.0 percent to 20.8 percent), according to unofficial results from all precincts. Voters in House district 78 preferred Kamala Harris to Donald Trump by 65.2 percent to 32.7 percent in the 2024 presidential election.

It’s the third special Iowa legislative election of 2025, and Democrats greatly improved on the Harris benchmark in all three races. According to a spreadsheet compiled by “elections nerd” Ethan C7, Democrats have outperformed in most of this year’s special elections around the country, with Ramirez, Iowa Senate district 35 candidate Mike Zimmer, and Iowa House district 100 candidate Nannette Griffin putting up the largest swings compared to the 2024 presidential results in their areas.

“It’s not about left/right, Democrat/Republicans, it’s about doing the right thing,” Kevin Techau told me on April 17, the day he launched his campaign for Congress in Iowa’s second district. “I think my record supports that that’s been the direction of my career.”

IA-02 wasn’t on either party’s target list in 2024. But Techau has potential to mount a serious challenge to three-term U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

This analysis assumes Hinson will run for re-election to the U.S. House. Although she has been mentioned as a possible candidate for governor, I doubt she would roll the dice on a statewide primary, where she would probably compete against a Republican with closer ties to President Donald Trump.

That said, if Hinson did seek another office in 2026, Techau’s prospects would improve dramatically. With rare exceptions, it’s easier for the party out of power to win an open seat than to defeat an incumbent. Hinson outperformed the top of the Republican ticket in 2024 and goes into this cycle with high name ID and more than $2.2 million in the bank, whereas a new GOP candidate would be starting from scratch.

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley has avoided public criticism of President Donald Trump’s cabinet members. But in an unscripted moment this week, he questioned why Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had texted family members about a planned military operation.

The New York Times reported on April 20 that Hegseth “shared detailed information about forthcoming strikes in Yemen on March 15 in a private Signal group chat that included his wife, brother and personal lawyer.” Among other things, the defense secretary texted “the flight schedules for the F/A-18 Hornets targeting the Houthis.”

Grassley’s office didn’t release any statement about the new controversy, nor did the senator mention it on his social media feeds. But Raccoon Valley Radio news director Coltrane Carlson raised the topic during a Q&A session published on April 25 and shared in the senator’s weekly newsletter. You can listen to the relevant segment here, which begins at the 4:23 mark of the full recording.

More than a year before Iowa’s 2026 primary election, Democrats already have one announced candidate for U.S. Senate (Nathan Sage) and two officially running for the U.S. House (Travis Terrell in the first district and Kevin Techau in the second). More Democrats will launch campaigns for Iowa’s statewide and federal offices in the coming months.

So it’s a good time to preview how this website will cover the next round of Iowa Democratic primaries.

GUIDELINES FOR MY OWN REPORTING

First, I don’t plan to endorse a contender in any competitive Democratic primary. My goal is to produce in-depth reporting on the major races, with details about the candidates and the political landscape that readers may not find in other media outlets.

Second, my coverage will focus on candidates with the capacity to run a credible statewide or district-wide campaign. I don’t mean just front-runners; plenty of little-known candidates have built a following and eventually won the nomination for a major office. I mean that when deciding where to spend my time and energy on individual candidate profiles or surveys of the primary field, I will be looking for signs that a candidate is doing the work this kind of campaign requires.

“The working class has been working their ass off every day to survive and make ends meet for their families,” Nathan Sage told me this week. Making working people’s lives better is the driving force of his U.S. Senate campaign.

At least four Democrats are thinking seriously about running against two-term Republican incumbent Joni Ernst. Sage was the first to make it official, on April 16.

Sage discussed his background, beliefs, and reasons for running in an interview with Bleeding Heartland the day before his campaign launch. The full video of our exchange is at the end of this post.

The field is set for the April 29 special election in Iowa House district 78. Democrats nominated Angel Ramirez at an April 12 nominating convention. Linn County Republicans chair Bernie Hayes won the GOP nomination at an April 14 convention.

Ramirez won on the first ballot in a four-way Democratic field. She is the co-founder and executive director of Our Future, a nonprofit fellowship for young leaders, and a Youth Peace Project Facilitator with the Kids First Law Center.

If elected, she would be the first Latina to serve in the Iowa legislature. She’s also “a proud first-generation college graduate from Coe College,” according to her campaign website. She told Iowa News Now after the convention, “it’s not the time for the status quo” and Democrats need to stand for “a progressive vision,” to help the working class, health care system, public education, LGBTQ neighbors.

It will take months to fully assess the fallout from Governor Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek another term in 2026.

But one thing’s for sure: State Auditor Rob Sand’s chances of winning the next governor’s race are substantially higher now than they were before April 11.

Sometimes debate on a low-profile bill reveals a lot about how the Iowa legislature operates.

So it was on April 9, when the Iowa Senate took up House File 363, “an Act relating to the final disposition of remains.”

The bill was one of ten non-controversial measures (often called “non-cons”) that senators approved that day. But don’t be fooled by the 47-0 vote for final passage. The debate on this bill showed the Republican majority’s intensely partisan approach to legislating.

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign has a staffer on the ground again in Iowa. No, the senator from Vermont isn’t getting a head start on the 2028 caucuses.

In an April 3 telephone interview, Evan Burger described his focus and early work as Iowa organizer for Friends of Bernie Sanders.

UPDATE: On April 8, the governor set this special election for Tuesday, April 29. Original post follows.

Voters in southeast Cedar Rapids will soon elect a new member of the Iowa House. Democratic State Representative Sami Scheetz resigned from the legislature on April 1 after being appointed to fill a vacancy on the Linn County Board of Supervisors (District 2). In a news release, he vowed to “continue to fight for working people, invest in our community’s future, and make sure Linn County remains a place where families can thrive” in his new role.

Scheetz was serving his second term in the legislature, representing House district 78. A detailed map is at the top of this post or can be downloaded here.

Dave Price had the scoop for Gray Media on March 28: State Senator Zach Wahls is “certainly listening” to those who have encouraged him to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Wahls is the first Democrat to publicly express interest in this race. Two-term Senator Joni Ernst has not formally launched her re-election campaign but is widely expected to seek a third term.

Wahls told Price he will decide whether to run for higher office after the Iowa legislative session. But he’s already criticizing Ernst, most recently in a March 26 news release that tied the senator to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “reckless mishandling of military plans” in a Signal group chat.

First-term State Representative Brett Barker has acknowledged he made a “rookie mistake” when he authorized the distribution of a right-wing Christian pamphlet to all of his Iowa House colleagues. Barker told Bleeding Heartland he didn’t read the publication by Capitol Ministries before it was circulated in the chamber on March 19.

But Barker has not publicly disavowed the contents of the weekly “Bible Study,” which portrays political adversaries as tools of Satan, calls on believers to “evangelize their colleagues,” depicts same-sex marriage and LGBTQ existence as “satanic perversions,” and condemns “women’s liberation” as a “scheme of the devil.”

Staff for Governor Kim Reynolds and U.S. Senator Joni Ernst did not respond to Bleeding Heartland’s inquiries about their association with Capitol Ministries or the views expressed in its latest publication. Both Reynolds and Ernst are among the “Bible Study Sponsors” listed on the front page of the document distributed in the Iowa House.

The only Iowa Republican in Congress who did not receive Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement!” in 2022 has been working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to him.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has stuck close to Trump—literally and figuratively—as she prepares for what could be a tough 2026 primary campaign in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

Fourth in a series on the new Iowa law that removed legal protection against discrimination for transgender and nonbinary Iowans, as well as any path for the state to officially recognize their gender identity.

Iowa House Speaker Pat Grassley has denied that GOP leaders threatened to block progress on unrelated legislation as a way to convince reluctant Republican lawmakers to vote for a bill targeting transgender Iowans.

Grassley made the comments during his weekly “gaggle” with statehouse reporters in the House chamber on March 13. Here’s the relevant exchange:

A strong Democratic ground game wasn’t quite enough to overcome the partisan lean and spending disparity in Iowa House district 100.

Republican Blaine Watkins will be the next representative for the district covering most of Lee County, after he won the March 11 special election by a surprisingly narrow margin.

Unofficial results indicate that Watkins received 2,749 votes to 2,574 for Democrat Nannette Griffin (51.5 percent to 48.2 percent). Voters living in this area preferred Donald Trump to Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election by 62.2 percent to 35.4 percent, according to Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of precinct-level results.

THE WINNING FORMULA FOR WATKINS

Griffin carried the early vote and two of the six precincts where polls were open on March 11: one in Fort Madison, where she has owned and operated a business for many years, and one in Keokuk. Watkins carried the other four election-day precincts by margins large enough to overcome Griffin’s advantage in absentee ballots. His best precinct was in Donnellson, where he grew up.

The only Iowa Republican legislator to lose his 2024 re-election bid has landed a job in the Trump administration—and he won’t need to move to Washington, DC.

Former State Senator Brad Zaun will be the administrator of the Small Business Administration’s Region 7, he announced to LinkedIn followers on March 6. In a statement published by the Des Moines Register, Zaun said he was “dedicated to boosting small businesses in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska by cutting red tape, expanding our reach, and providing essential resources.” He added, “My goal is a streamlined, ‘America First’ SBA that fuels free enterprise and regional prosperity.”

Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” continues to slash the federal workforce, but there will always be room for political appointees—especially those on good terms with President Donald Trump.

Third in a series on the new Iowa law that removed legal protection against discrimination for transgender and nonbinary Iowans, as well as any path for the state to officially recognize their gender identity.

Given the choice, most legislators will not cast a potentially career-ending vote—especially when they know the outcome isn’t riding on their decision.

But on February 27, five Republican members of the Iowa House voted against Senate File 418, the bill that laid the groundwork for future discrimination against transgender Iowans and others. A sixth GOP lawmaker (who left the capitol during the floor debate) later put a note in the House Journal to confirm he would have voted no.

These lawmakers come from different political backgrounds but have a couple of things in common. All represent heavily Republican areas, not swing districts—which means they are at greater risk of losing to a GOP primary challenger than to a Democrat in a general election. In addition, all have opposed at least one other high-profile bill the House approved during the past few years.

This post is mostly about the six Republicans who took a public stand against Senate File 418. I also discuss eight of their colleagues, who signaled they were uncomfortable with discrimination against transgender Iowans but eventually fell in line.

Second in a series on Iowa’s wide-ranging law that removed legal protection against discrimination for transgender and nonbinary Iowans, as well as any path for the state to officially recognize their gender identity.

Iowa Republicans made history in the worst way last week.

Effective July 1, 2025, the Iowa Civil Rights Act will no longer prohibit discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations, or credit on the basis of gender identity. The state of Iowa also will stop issuing birth certificates that reflect a transgender person’s gender identity, and will officially recognize separate-but-equal accommodations as lawful.

Republicans sped up the legislative process to pass Senate File 418 in both chambers on February 27, only seven days after the bill text became public.

The Iowa Senate approved the bill on a party-line vote of 33 to 15. Less than an hour later, the House passed the bill by 60 votes to 36, with five Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition. Governor Kim Reynolds signed Senate File 418 on February 28.

Forthcoming articles will analyze this law’s impact on Iowans and the inevitable court challenge over some potentially unconstitutional provisions.

For now, I want to highlight a selection of compelling appeals the majority party ignored: six from Iowans whom this law will directly harm, and six from allies of the trans community.

All of the videos enclosed below came from either the floor debates or the Iowa House public hearing held on the morning of February 27. It was very hard to choose just a few testimonies. You can watch the entire public hearing here or here, the full Iowa Senate floor debate here, and the Iowa House debate here.

With a promise “to provide leadership to our country,” Republican David Pautsch officially kicked off his second campaign for Iowa’s first Congressional district on February 27 in Des Moines. Touching on many of the topics he discussed in a recent interview with Bleeding Heartland, he repeatedly contrasted his steadfast conservative beliefs with the “vacillation” of the GOP incumbent, U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

I was unable to attend the campaign launch, as I was in the Iowa House chamber covering floor debate on a bill revoking transgender Iowans’ civil rights protections and legal recognition. The Iowa Standard’s Jacob Hall recorded the event and posted the video on Facebook.

UPDATE: Following committee passage, this bill was renumbered House File 583. The companion legislation is Senate File 418. Both chambers approved the bill on February 27, and Governor Kim Reynolds signed Senate File 418 into law the following day. The law will go into effect on July 1, 2025. Original post follows.

Republican members of the Iowa House and Senate have introduced dozens of bills targeting LGBTQ people since the GOP gained full control of state government in 2017. But the latest bill to drop broke new ground in several ways.

House Judiciary Committee chair Steven Holt introduced House Study Bill 242, “an Act relating to sex and gender,” on February 20. He intends to put it on a fast track to Governor Kim Reynolds’ desk. A subcommittee meeting is scheduled for Monday, February 24, at 11:00 a.m. Republican State Representative Brian Lohse posted on Facebook that the plan is for the full Judiciary Committee to consider the bill on Monday afternoon, and for leaders to bring it up for a House floor vote on February 27.

On its face, the bill would ensure that transgender and nonbinary Iowans have no legal protection against discrimination and no official recognition of their gender identity.

In addition, the bill’s impact could extend beyond the LGBTQ community to threaten civil rights protections for other groups.

Governor Kim Reynolds struck a confident tone when asked this week about a possible 2026 primary against former State Representative Brad Sherman.

In a February 17 news release announcing his campaign for governor, Sherman said, “I look forward to working with President Trump – who I endorsed early and supported in rallies, caucuses, conventions, and elections – in his agenda to restore the America we love.”

It was a not-subtle swipe at Reynolds, who endorsed and campaigned for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis before the 2024 Iowa caucuses.

Although the governor has not confirmed she will seek a third term, she was ready with talking points that would cater to Republican audiences.

“I’LL STAND ON MY BOLD CONSERVATIVE RECORD”

Gray TV Iowa political director Dave Price asked Reynolds on February 18 if she felt confident the president would endorse her in a Republican primary. Here’s my recording of that exchange from the governor’s press conference.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird enjoyed suing the Biden administration. She filed or joined more than a dozen multi-state lawsuits against the federal government during her first year in office alone. At least a dozen more lawsuits followed in 2024.

Bird has often welcomed media coverage of her legal battles against Biden administration policies. Her office issued many press releases to announce new litigation or joint letters challenging the federal government.

But Bird’s office kept quiet about one case, which Iowa and sixteen other Republican-controlled states filed in the Northern District of Texas last September. Texas v. Becerra could prove catastrophic for Americans with disabilities. Not only are the plaintiffs seeking to vacate a federal rule prohibiting discrimination against disabled people in health care settings, they are also asking the court to declare a 1973 law known as Section 504 unconstitutional and unenforceable.

After reporters began asking questions about that lawsuit last week, Bird and her staff lied repeatedly about the scope of the case and the plaintiffs’ goals.

Legislative clerk Blaine Watkins will be the Republican candidate for the March 11 special election in Iowa House district 100, covering most of Lee County. Three other Republicans also competed for the nomination at a February 13 special convention. Watkins easily won with more than 70 percent of the delegates’ weighted votes on the first ballot.

Chuck Vandenberg reported for the Pen City Current that Watkins “told the convention that he had three issues he wanted to tackle right away, if elected”: property taxes, school choice and parental rights, and economic growth and jobs.

According to his LinkedIn page, Watkins graduated from Grand View University in December 2024, having majored in political science with a minor in business. He has clerked in the Iowa Senate for the past five years—first for former State Senator Craig Williams in 2021 and 2022, then for State Senator Jeff Reichman (who represents this part of southeast Iowa) since the 2023 session.

Watkins continues a trend of Republican legislative candidates who previously worked as clerks for Iowa GOP lawmakers. The most recent example was David Blom, the successful 2024 GOP challenger in House district 52, covering the Marshalltown area. Candidates with clerking experience are already steeped in the culture of the Golden Dome and will likely be reliable votes for leadership.

I wouldn’t have guessed President Donald Trump’s lawsuit over the pre-election Iowa Poll could assert claims any more outlandish than the original court filing in December.

Enter U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks and former State Senator Brad Zaun.

The Des Moines Register’s William Morris was first to report on February 4 that Miller-Meeks and Zaun signed on as plaintiffs in Trump’s case against J. Ann Selzer, her polling company, the Des Moines Register, and its parent company Gannett. The suit alleges that the inaccurate poll (which suggested Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was leading Trump in Iowa) was an “unfair act or practice” under Iowa’s consumer fraud statute. It further claims defendants “engaged in this misconduct to improperly influence the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.”

Adding plaintiffs who are Iowa residents will help Trump get the case moved back to state court, where he originally filed. Attorneys for Gannett used a legal maneuver in December to remove the case to federal court.

For Miller-Meeks, there’s political upside as well: demonstrating her allegiance to Trump may help her fend off a second primary challenge from MAGA Republican David Pautsch.

But let’s be clear: Miller-Meeks and Zaun have even less basis to claim the Iowa Poll harmed them than Trump does.

Nannette Griffin announced on February 10 that she will seek the Democratic nomination for the coming special election in Iowa House district 100. A lifelong resident of southeast Iowa, Griffin is the founder and owner of Griffin Muffler & Brake Center, a longstanding auto repair business in Fort Madison. She has been active in numerous civic organizations and received an award for women entrepreneurs from the Small Business Development Centers of Iowa.

Griffin was the 2024 Democratic challenger in Iowa Senate district 50, which includes this area as well as House district 99, covering the city of Burlington and its surroundings.

In a news release, Griffin said, “I decided to run for the Iowa House because I know that Lee County families and workers need a real voice in the state legislature.” She added,

“The grassroots of America love making America great again,” David Pautsch told me during a February 5 telephone interview. “It’s the political establishment people, including and especially the Republican establishment, that is the biggest albatross around our neck.”

Pautsch is counting on the MAGA grassroots as he prepares for a rematch against U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 2026 GOP primary for Iowa’s first Congressional district.

A minister and founder of the Quad Cities Prayer Breakfast, Pautsch received just under 44 percent of the vote in the 2024 primary after running against the incumbent from the right.

I reached out to Pautsch after seeing he had booked the state capitol rotunda on February 27 for a “Congressional candidacy announcement.” Although he hasn’t officially launched his campaign, he agreed to speak on the record about his plans and prospects.

Governor Kim Reynolds announced on February 7 that she has scheduled a special election in Iowa House district 100 for Tuesday, March 11. The seat became vacant due to the recent passing of State Representative Martin Graber.

The district covers most of Lee County, including the population centers of Keokuk and Fort Madison. Like several other counties containing mid-sized cities, this part of Iowa was a longtime Democratic stronghold.

But Lee County was among the “pivot counties” that voted twice for Barack Obama, then for Donald Trump in three straight presidential elections.

More recently, voters in this area have favored Republican candidates for down-ballot offices as well. GOP candidates picked up the Iowa House and Senate seats covering this territory by defeating Democratic incumbents in 2020. In the 2024 general election, a Republican challenger won the race for Lee County sheriff, a position held by Democrats for many years. Some county office-holders who used to be Democrats (such as the Lee County attorney, recorder, and former auditor) have changed their party affiliation to Republican in recent years as well.

Iowa House members were shocked and saddened on January 31 as news spread that their colleague, Republican State Representative Martin Graber, had died of a heart attack. Graber had been at the capitol the previous day, voting for the first three bills debated on the House floor during the 2025 legislative session.

A financial adviser in Fort Madison and former brigadier general in the Iowa National Guard (now retired), Graber was first elected to the Iowa House in 2020, defeating a Democratic incumbent. He just won a third term by more than a two-to-one margin in November.

Graber chaired the new Federal and Other Funds Appropriations subcommittee (established before the 2025 legislative session) and also served on the Local Government and Economic Growth and Technology committees. He previously chaired the Economic Development Appropriations subcommittee and served on the Commerce and Veterans Affairs panels.

They say anything can happen in a low-turnout special election. And on January 28, voters in Iowa Senate district 35 elected Democrat Mike Zimmer to represent them through the end of 2026. Zimmer defeated Republican nominee Katie Whittington by 4,812 votes to 4,473 (51.7 percent to 48.1 percent), according to unofficial results.

Most Iowa political observers expected Republicans to hold the seat easily. Former State Senator Chris Cournoyer was re-elected in this district with about 61 percent of the vote in 2022. (She resigned from the legislature to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor last month.) In the most recent general election, voters living in Senate district 35 preferred Donald Trump to Kamala Harris by a 21-point margin, and preferred GOP incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks over Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by a 9-point margin. The GOP has a voter registration advantage too.

Yet Zimmer performed well in every part of Senate district 35. He carried Clinton County, where most of his constituents live, by 3,411 votes to 3,169 (51.7 percent to 48.0 percent). Trump won that formerly blue county in November with 58.5 percent of the vote to 39.7 percent for Harris.

The Democrat carried the Jackson County precincts by 555 votes to 446 for Whittington (55.4 percent to 44.6 percent). Voters in the same area favored Trump by 60.3 percent to 38.2 percent in November, according to Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of the precinct-level results.

Also impressive: Zimmer nearly matched his opponent in the Scott County portion of the district, gaining 846 votes to 858 for Whittington (49.6 percent to 50.3 percent). Trump’s advantage over Harris in the same precincts: 64.2 percent to 34.1 percent.

How did the Democrat pull it off?

The U.S. Supreme Court declined last week to hear former U.S. Representative Steve King’s appeal in a case stemming from his Congressional campaign’s unauthorized use of the popular “Success Kid” meme in 2020.

SHORT-LIVED POST LED TO LONG LEGAL BATTLE

Laney Griner took the photo of her son Sam on a beach in 2007 and registered the copyright for the “Success Kid” meme in 2012. While numerous people have used the image to create memes without compensating the Griners, various corporations have paid to license the photo for use in advertising.

A January 2020 post on the King for Congress Facebook page put Sam’s defiant image in front of the U.S. Capitol with the message “FUND OUR MEMES!!!” The post linked to a fundraising page.

King’s campaign took the “Success Kid” Facebook post down within hours after receiving a warning from Griner’s attorney. Griner told the New York Times at the time, “Steve King is just the worst of the worst,” and “bigotry is just the antithesis of what we want to be the association with this meme.”

Governor Kim Reynolds hasn’t faced an opponent in a Republican primary since 2008, when she ran for state Senate. But if she seeks a third term in 2026, she will likely compete against a challenger from the right: former State Representative Brad Sherman.

The Iowa Standard reported last month that Sherman intends to run for governor. Speaking to Bleeding Heartland at the state capitol on January 23, Sherman declined to discuss specifics but indicated he has a campaign kickoff planned for February.

His campaign Facebook page was recently updated after a stretch of 21 months with no new posts. His refreshed campaign website is recruiting volunteers to “spread the word about the upcoming primary.” His latest campaign financial disclosure shows no fundraising for the first eleven months of 2024—when Sherman wasn’t seeking re-election to the state House—followed by ten donations totaling $4,030 in December. That month, the campaign committee paid $6,000 to a Republican consulting firm.

To put it mildly, Sherman would face long odds against Reynolds. The governor’s campaign raised $1.8 million last year and started 2025 with more than $3 million cash on hand. Reynolds would have massive establishment support—not only in state, but from the Republican Governors Association, where her former chief of staff serves as executive director. In addition, Iowans are famous for re-electing incumbents.

On the other hand, a sizeable number of Iowa Republicans are open to anti-establishment candidates. Then State Senator Jim Carlin ran for U.S. Senate on a shoestring budget but received 26.5 percent of the 2022 primary vote against Senator Chuck Grassley. Last year, Kevin Virgil received nearly 40 percent of the vote against U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, and David Pautsch managed just under 44 percent against U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, even though both members of Congress massively outspent their GOP challengers.

Four groups would be particularly important for Sherman if he seeks the nomination for governor next year.

At least ten Iowans are among some 1,500 people President Donald Trump pardoned on his first day back in the White House. The sweeping proclamation affects everyone convicted of offenses related to the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Most of them will receive a “full, complete and unconditional pardon.” Fourteen named individuals, who were leaders of the extremist groups Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, will have their sentences commuted to time served.

Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump characterized those charged with January 6 offenses as “hostages,” a term he periodically used on the campaign trail last year.

Ten Iowans have been charged in connection with the January 6 events, William Morris and Brian Smith reported for the Des Moines Register earlier this month. Two have been serving years-long prison terms but will soon be released, in accordance with Trump’s pardons:

What had been obvious for weeks became official on January 14. Hours after Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee, Senator Joni Ernst announced in an interview with WHO Radio’s Simon Conway and later in a news release that she would vote to confirm President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of defense.

It never seemed likely Ernst would stand in Hegseth’s way. However, she had suggested in early December that he needed a “thorough vetting,” and she wasn’t ready to commit. Facing a barrage of attacks from conservative influencers and threats of a 2026 GOP primary challenge, the senator quickly changed her tune, saying in a statement, “As I support Pete through this process, I look forward to a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources.”

In the end, Ernst conducted a selective search for the truth about Hegseth. She discounted facts that raised doubts about his fitness while playing up a testimonial from someone with a stake in the outcome.

Her approach was quite different in 2019, when she considered a controversial Trump nominee for another military role—in the absence of any coordinated effort to influence her decision.

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson caused some angst in the House Republican caucus this week when he removed Representative Mike Turner as chair of the Intelligence Committee, supposedly due to “concerns from Mar-a-Lago,” among other considerations. But there were no unpleasant surprises for Iowa’s delegation as committee assignments were finalized for the 119th Congress.

The Iowans rank low in seniority among House Republicans, with Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) beginning his second term, and Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) each starting their third terms. Nevertheless, all will continue to serve on influential panels.

Senator Chuck Grassley is the longest-serving U.S. senator in Iowa history and among the ten longest-serving members of Congress from any state. He returned this month to two prominent roles as chair of the Judiciary Committee and Senate President pro tempore—the third in line for the presidency after the vice president and U.S. House speaker. Meanwhile, Senator Joni Ernst now chairs a committee for the first time.

One of the biggest spenders on behalf of U.S. House Democrats launched digital advertising this week targeting U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts. The ads, enclosed in full below, claim the GOP incumbents “could cost you more,” because they support President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for health and human services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

The House Majority PAC’s 501(c)4 affiliate, House Majority Forward, is funding the 30-second spots, part of a $10 million campaign targeting nine potentially vulnerable House Republicans.

The Cedar Rapids Gazette and Dubuque Telegraph-Herald will switch next month to printing the paper only three days a week.

A January 14 email to subscribers from president Kelly Homewood and executive editor Zack Kucharski said that effective February 17, the Gazette will print editions on Wednesdays, Saturdays, and Sundays, rather than the current seven days a week. Telegraph-Herald publisher Mike Fortman wrote in a January 12 column that beginning February 15, the newspaper will move from its current six-day print schedule to printing on Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays.

Leaders of both newspapers pointed to economic realities as they explained the decision.

Fourteenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

As Iowa legislature began its 2025 session on January 13, members of the LGBTQ community held more seats than ever, and representation for people of color matched the record set following the 2022 elections.

However, fewer women now serve in the Iowa House and Senate. Religious diversity will also decline, even though State Senator Janice Weiner became the highest-ranking Iowa legislator to adhere to a non-Christian faith tradition.

Thirteenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

When the Iowa legislature reconvenes in Des Moines on January 13, fifteen state House members and six state senators will be sworn in for the first time. But one of them is marking more than a personal milestone.

Aime Wichtendahl will make history as Iowa’s first transgender state lawmaker. She starts her new job as a Democrat outnumbered by the largest GOP majority in the Iowa House since 1970. Not only that: House Republicans have recently approved or considered numerous bills that would discriminate against LGBTQ people broadly and transgender Iowans in particular. Wichtendahl has spoken against those bills in subcommittee meetings and at rallies.

Iowa’s first trans legislator spoke to Bleeding Heartland in November and December about her campaign, takeaways from the 2024 elections, and plans for legislative work.

A year-end review from U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley’s office boasted that the senator’s oversight “touched on 97% of all taxpayer-funded agencies” during 2024. “Nearly every corner of government received Grassley’s thorough inspection – it’s all part of Grassley’s constant efforts to ensure the government is a service to the American people,” the report added.

One area that escaped Grassley’s “thorough inspection” was the collapse of bribery allegations against President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden. For months in 2023, Grassley publicized an FBI informant’s explosive claims about the Bidens.

But he’s had nothing to say since Alexander Smirnov, the original source of those allegations, pleaded guilty in December to making up the whole story.

The nonprofit Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) announced on January 7 that it will defend longtime Iowa Poll director J. Ann Selzer at no charge in the lawsuit Donald Trump filed last month. Trump sued Selzer, her polling company, the Des Moines Register, and its parent company Gannett over the final pre-election Iowa Poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 3 points. The Republican later carried Iowa by a 13-point margin.

FIRE’s chief counsel Bob Corn-Revere said in a news release, “Punishing someone for their political prediction is about as unconstitutional as it gets,” adding, “This is America. No one should be afraid to predict the outcome of an election. Whether it’s from a pollster, or you, or me, such political expression is fully and unequivocally protected by the First Amendment.”

One of President-elect Donald Trump’s top advisers on judicial and legal matters stepped away from a University of Iowa alumni advisory board late last year. Mike Davis has long been an aggressive Trump ally, known for his “combative presence on right-wing media.” Some of his posts on the X/Twitter platform prompted calls in November for the university to remove him from the political science department’s alumni advisory board. But in a statement provided last month, Davis said, “With President Trump’s victory on November 5th, I will not have the necessary bandwidth to serve on this important volunteer board, so I decided on my own to step down.”

The Article III Project, which Davis leads as founding president, told Bleeding Heartland that no one from the university asked Davis to resign from the advisory board or take down any of his social media posts.

Communications staff for the University of Iowa declined to comment on the situation. Professor Brian Lai, the interim department chair listed as the point of contact for the alumni advisory board, did not respond to inquiries.

UPDATE: Zimmer won the special election. You can read about how he did it here. Original post follows.

Both major parties have selected their nominees for the January 28 special election to in Iowa Senate district 35. Central DeWitt school board president Mike Zimmer was unopposed at the Democratic Party’s special nominating convention on December 30. Clinton County activist Katie Whittington prevailed in a three-way competition at the GOP special convention on January 4.

Iowa House Republican Tom Determann, who has represented House district 69 (the Clinton area) since 2023, and Clinton County farmer Dennis Campbell also competed for the GOP nomination.

Whittington has never held elective office but has volunteered for various causes locally, including Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. She describes herself as a “health freedom advocate” and has been active with the anti-vaccine organizations Children’s Health Defense and Health Freedom Iowa, for which she has served as vice president.

“You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far,” says Joshua Smith in the first digital ad promoting his Republican campaign for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat.

The video previews what will be an aggressive campaign by Senator Joni Ernst’s 2026 primary challenger from the right.

State Auditor Rob Sand has urged members of the Iowa Democratic Party’s governing body to give Rita Hart another term as state chair. In a January 1 message to State Central Committee members (enclosed in full below), Sand credited Hart with getting the party out of debt and raising enough money to fund full-time communications, finance, and data staff.

He also asserted that Iowa was “more GOP than the rest of the country in 2022, then more Dem than the rest of the country in 2024.” I believe he meant to say that the swing toward Donald Trump in Iowa was (slightly) less than the national swing toward Trump this year. Iowa’s voting patterns are clearly not “more Dem” than the U.S. as a whole; the president-elect won the popular vote by about 1.5 points nationally but by 13.2 points in Iowa.

Sand pushed back against what he called “inaccurate info about the party’s performance” and Hart. In particular, he defended the party’s decision to send fewer absentee ballot request forms to voters this year than in past election cycles, saying Republican-backed changes to Iowa law made it more risky to push voting by mail and wiser to invest in other programs.

He appeared to be referring to a recent Substack post by Robert Leonard, which faulted the Iowa Democratic Party for “lost opportunities” during the 2024 election cycle. Leonard wrote, “One Democratic legislator tells me that normally Iowa Democrats send out approximately 250,000 absentee ballot request forms and this year only 40,000 were sent.” It’s important to remember that the state party was not the only entity pushing early GOTV. For example, the Polk County Democrats distributed an estimated 190,000 absentee ballot request forms to around 95,000 households in late August and early September.

Sand asked members of the governing body to unite behind Hart and her “Forward Victory: 2026” plan, saying it would be “positive change for the IDP” to keep a chair for more than one term. Since Michael Kiernan stepped down for health reasons in 2010, nine people have led the party: Sue Dvorsky, Tyler Olson, Scott Brennan, Andy McGuire, Derek Eadon, Troy Price, Mark Smith, Ross Wilburn, and Hart.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee will meet on January 4 to elect a new chair. Three candidates are expected to be nominated: Hart, Tim Winter, and Alexandra Nickolas-Dermody. Dexter Merschbrock announced in December that he was seeking the position but endorsed Nickolas-Dermody this week.

UPDATE: Hart won the election by 38 votes to ten for Winter and one for Nickolas-Dermody. Kim Callahan was also nominated during the January 4 meeting but did not win any votes.

As each new year begins, I enjoy looking back at the posts that resonated most strongly with readers in the year that ended. Some things never change: actions by the Republican-controlled state legislature and Governor Kim Reynolds—especially attacks on public education—inspired many of Bleeding Heartland’s most-viewed posts from 2024. That’s been true every year since the GOP trifecta began in 2017. U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley, who featured prominently in two of last year’s most popular posts, makes another appearance below.

I’ve learned there is no way to predict which pieces will take off. Some of the posts linked below required intensive research and days of writing, while others took only a few hours from start to finish. One was among the longest I wrote last year (more than 5,000 words), while another was among the shortest (fewer than 300 words).

Some authors whose work gained a large following in past years made the list again. But three authors featured below were contributing to Bleeding Heartland for the first time.

This list draws from Fathom Analytics data about total views for 561 posts published from January 1 through December 31, 2024. I wrote 145 of those articles and commentaries; other authors wrote 416. I left out the site’s front page and the “about” page, where many people landed following online searches.

A half-dozen posts barely missed the top 24, by a few hundred views or less:

Bleeding Heartland set yet another record for guest contributions in 2024, with 416 posts involving 146 authors. (The previous record was 358 posts that more than 125 people wrote for this site in 2023.) I don’t know of any state-based political website that provides more quality coverage and commentary by guest contributors.

This year’s guest authors covered a wide range of topics, from public schools to local government, major employers, CO2 pipelines, notable events in Iowa history, and of course wildflowers.

They wrote about President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, Governor Kim Reynolds and her administration, Attorney General Brenna Bird, and of course former and future President Donald Trump.

During the legislative session, guest authors highlighted flaws in the governor’s plan to overhaul Area Education Agencies and the report that sought to justify it. They shared their own personal or professional experiences with AEAs. They covered other education proposals and explained why the state’s official school voucher numbers were misleading. They also covered bills that received less attention but could change many Iowans’ lives for better or worse.

During the 2024 campaign and its aftermath, guest authors wrote about presidential polling in Iowa and nationally, profiled candidates, and analyzed the election results from several angles.

Guest authors sounded the alarm about Iowa’s near-total abortion ban, unlawful drug testing at hospitals, and climate change impacts. They suggested ways to protect water and air quality, and flagged transparency problems in state and local government. They reviewed books that would interest many Bleeding Heartland readers.

They reflected on the lives of those who passed away this year, including Iowans Marcia Nichols, Bobby Washington, and Jim Leach, as well as Tim Kraft, who played an important role on some Iowa campaigns.

While many guest authors criticized Republican policies and politicians, some offered advice or constructive criticism to Democrats following the Iowa caucuses and another disappointing general election.

As noted below, some contributions by guest authors were among the most-viewed Bleeding Heartland posts of the year.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee will meet in Ankeny on January 4 to elect a state chair for the next four years. Rita Hart, who has served in that role since early 2023, is seeking another term. She emailed the following action plan (“Forward: Victory 2026”) to State Central Committee members on December 23. The Iowa Democratic Party’s Progressive Caucus shared the document on Facebook on December 30.

Bleeding Heartland has not edited the text in any way, other than to move two sentences from a footnote to square brackets alongside the relevant phrase (for formatting reasons). All words in bold or italics were that way in the original document. You can download Rita Hart’s plan as a pdf here.

UPDATE: Hart won the election by 38 votes to ten for Tim Winter and one for Alexandra Nickolas-Dermody. Kim Callahan was also nominated during the January 4 meeting but did not win any votes.

Dear SCC members, Leaders, and fellow Democrats,

The 2023-2024 election cycle for IDP combined two ideas that are hard to hold at the same time. First, I am proud of the work our team has done to rebuild IDP as an institution. When I was elected, IDP had laid off all but 2.5 staffers. We did not have full-time Finance, Communications, or Data staff. We were $100k in debt. Over the last two years, despite challenges including a hostile DNC, a complete turnover in staff, and a cancer diagnosis, we have stabilized IDP and built a team that can execute an off-year plan starting in January 2025.

However, it clearly was not enough and we have a great deal more work to do. Two years ago, I wrote to you: “…serving as IDP Chair has never been an ambition of mine, but I care deeply about the success of Iowa Democrats. As a teacher, a farmer, a state senator, LG and congressional candidate, I have seen time and time again how the policies our leaders implement affect every day Iowans. My focus is squarely on helping our party begin winning elections again.” It is cold comfort that Iowa swung to the right less than the rest of the country (6 points nationally vs. 5 in Iowa) or that Christina Bohannan had one of the strongest overperformances in the country. We need to win.

A new nonprofit organization, Mid-Iowa Community News, will soon launch the Ames Voice, a digital newsroom “dedicated to being the primary source of news and information for the Ames area.” Douglas Burns, one of the organizers of the effort, announced in a December 30 post on The Iowa Mercury newsletter that Ames Voice has “been in the works for a year.” Its mission: “local, local, local coverage. Just the facts. Full coverage of life in Story County, home to Ames and Iowa State University.”

Ames is Iowa’s ninth-largest city, with more than 65,000 residents, and home to the Iowa Department of Transportation as well as Iowa’s second-largest state university. Story County is the ninth-largest of the 99 counties, with more than 98,000 residents.

Although the area has long had a newspaper, The Ames Tribune (part of the Gannett group) has eliminated most of its newsroom staff in recent years. The paper now publishes far more content from the Des Moines Register than original reporting.

A years-long effort to expand the federal judiciary faltered this week when President Joe Biden vetoed the Judicial Understaffing Delays Getting Emergencies Solved Act of 2024. The JUDGES Act would have increased the federal district court bench by about 10 percent over the next twelve years, adding 63 new permanent federal judgeships in thirteen states, along with three temporary judgeships in Oklahoma. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa was slated to receive one of the first eleven positions to be created in 2025.

The veto leaves Iowa’s Northern District with two District Court judges (Chief Judge C.J. Williams and Judge Leonard T. Strand), along with Senior Judge Linda R. Reade and two magistrate judges. That number hasn’t changed since 1990, when the last major expansion of the federal bench allocated a third judgeship to Iowa’s Southern District. The 1990 law also assigned a judge who had previously divided his time between the state’s two districts to the Northern District on a permanent basis.

Biden may not have the last word on this subject, given the Republican Party’s commitment to putting more conservatives on the bench.

UPDATE: Zimmer won the special election. You can read about how he did it here. Original post follows.

Central DeWitt School Board president Mike Zimmer announced on December 23 that he will seek the Democratic nomination in Iowa Senate district 35, where voters will choose a successor to Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer on January 28. In a statement enclosed in full below, Zimmer promised to “champion Eastern Iowa’s public schools, working families, and our middle class” by fighting for “stronger public schools, better wages, and opportunities that foster real financial stability.”

According to a guide from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, candidates have until 5:00 PM on January 14 to file nominating papers with the secretary of state. Before then, Democrats and Republicans will hold nominating conventions, where delegates from the 36 precincts across the Senate district will choose a nominee. Third-party or independent candidates need to collect at least 100 signatures from eligible voters residing in the district, and submit those petitions with their nominating papers.

While others could compete for the Democratic nomination at the special convention, Zimmer’s proven electoral track record would give him an advantage.

Whether you celebrate Christmas, Chanukah, Kwanzaa, or no holiday, I come bearing gifts on this wintry day: a photo from each of Bleeding Heartland’s 29 posts about wildflowers this year. Readers often tell me this series is their favorite thing about my website.

As in 2022 and 2023, guest authors and photographers carried much of the load for this series. In alphabetical order: Emily Bredthauer, Katie Byerly, Luuk Clark, Lora Conrad, Jeff Ewoldt, Kara Grady, Marla Mertz, Bruce Morrison, Diane Porter, Kenny Slocum, and Patrick Swanson. Special thanks to Emily, Luuk, and Jeff, who contributed to Bleeding Heartland for the first time this year.

This series will return sometime during April or May of 2025. Please reach out if you have photographs to share, especially of native plants I haven’t featured yet. The full archive of more than 300 posts featuring more than 250 species is available here. I have also compiled links to several dozen posts that covered many plants found in one area, rather than focusing on a single kind of wildflower.

For those looking for wildflower pictures year round, or seeking help with plant ID, check out the Facebook groups Flora of Iowa or Iowa wildflower enthusiasts. If you’d like a book to take with you on nature outings, Lora Conrad reviewed some of the best wildflower guides last year. A book featuring plants native to our part of the country is probably more reliable than the plant ID app on your phone.

They were so close.

After weeks of negotiations, U.S. House and Senate leaders had agreed on a year-end spending bill that would fund the federal government through March 14, extend the 2018 Farm Bill through next September, and provide more than $100 billion in disaster aid. The legislation included numerous other policies, including at least two that had been priorities for Iowa’s members of Congress. The bill would have legalized year-round sales of higher ethanol blends known as E-15 in all states. It also contained new regulations for pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), which could have saved consumers billions while helping small pharmacies.

All of the Iowans in Congress have talked up E-15 as a path to U.S. energy independence. (In reality, only about 3,400 of some 198,000 gas stations across the country dispense higher ethanol blends.) Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Senator Chuck Grassley have been among the most vocal proponents of PBM reform, calling for action on prescription drug middlemen in draft bills, press releases, news conferences, House and Senate hearings, floor speeches, and taxpayer-funded radio ads.

Little did they know that President-elect Donald Trump and his billionaire buddy Elon Musk were about to blow up the deal.

Iowa’s all-Republican delegation voted the same way on almost every bill that came before both chambers during the 118th Congress, which wrapped up its work in the early hours of December 21. But one of the last bills sent to President Joe Biden, the Social Security Fairness Act, revealed an unusual disagreement among the Iowans serving in the U.S. House and Senate.

When the House approved the bill by 327 votes to 75 in November, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), Zach Nunn (IA-03), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) were part of the bipartisan majority.

When the Senate passed the bill by 76 votes to 20 shortly after midnight on December 21, Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst were among the 20 Republicans who voted no.

The Iowans’ comments on the Social Security Fairness Act illustrate how differently politicians with similar ideologies can view a complex public policy fix.

Iowa is projected to maintain four U.S. House districts after 2030, according to population estimates the U.S. Census Bureau released on December 19. If that pans out, it would be our state’s longest stretch without losing a Congressional district in 100 years.

Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s Democracy Program, posted a map on social media on December 19, showing how reapportionment would affect each state. Iowa is among 36 states that would neither gain nor lose any U.S. House districts after the 2030 census, if population trends from the past two years hold. Three neighboring states—Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—are each expected to lose one seat, in line with a decades-long trend of relatively slower population growth in the Midwest and Northeast, compared to the South and West.

President-elect Donald Trump followed through this week with his threat to sue pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register over the final pre-election Iowa Poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent.

Many others have pointed out that Trump’s lawsuit is part of his broader “revenge tour” and “war on journalism.” In Greg Sargent’s words, the case is “putting people in the media and polling on notice that they will face real legal harassment if they anger or criticize Trump.” The president-elect admitted during a December 16 press conference that he will use lawsuits to influence news coverage: “I think you have to do it, because they’re very dishonest. We need a great media, we need a fair media.”

This post will focus on the legal, factual, and logical problems with the court filing.

UPDATE: On December 23, Governor Kim Reynolds scheduled the special election for Tuesday, January 28. Democrat Mike Zimmer won that election. You can read about how he did it here. Original post follows.

Voters in Iowa Senate district 35 will soon elect a new senator, now that Chris Cournoyer has resigned from that role to become Iowa’s lieutenant governor.

Under state law, when a vacancy in the Iowa House or Senate arises within 45 days of the next legislative session convening, “the governor shall order such special election at the earliest practical time, giving at least eighteen days’ notice.” Governor Kim Reynolds’ spokesperson Mason Mauro said on December 16 he could not answer questions about the timing of the special election. But it’s likely to happen sometime in January. The winner will serve out the remainder of Cournoyer’s term, which runs through 2026.

Republicans will be heavily favored to hold the seat, which would give them a 35-15 majority in the chamber.

“They don’t make them like Jim Leach anymore,” posted the elections analysts at The Downballot after learning Leach had passed away on December 11. They were commenting on his extraordinary warning to the Republican National Committee chairman that he would not caucus with Republicans in the next Congress if the Iowa GOP continued to fund direct mail attacking his 2006 Democratic challenger.

Among Iowans who have served in Congress, Leach was unique in many ways.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird will again ask the Iowa legislature to increase state penalties for assaulting law enforcement officers, she told reporters on December 12. But she did not condemn the idea of pardoning those who assaulted police during the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Bleeding Heartland asked Bird whether people who assaulted law enforcement or damaged federal government property on January 6 should be pardoned. She replied, “Well, that’s up to President Trump to decide once he’s in office.”

Would she support Trump if he issues those pardons? “As someone who has worked on pardons at the state level” with former Governor Terry Branstad, Bird said, “I think those decisions are best made on an individualized basis.”

Bird served as Branstad’s legal counsel from his return to the governor’s office in 2011 until early 2015. Elected attorney general in 2022, she was the highest-ranking state official to endorse Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign before the Iowa caucuses.

The House Majority PAC, one of the biggest spenders supporting Democrats in U.S. House races, has confirmed Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts are among its “top targets” for the 2026 election cycle.

The PAC also put IA-02 on a list of sixteen House districts that “could become competitive” in 2026.

UPDATE: Smith fleshed out his message against the incumbent in a digital ad launched on December 31. Original post follows.

Senator Joni Ernst has her first declared 2026 primary challenger. Joshua Smith announced on X/Twitter on December 5 that he plans to run against Ernst as a Republican in 2026. The “blue-collar, working-class veteran” and father of seven promised he would be “the most pro-life, pro-family, small government candidate running for a federal office” next cycle.

So far, Smith’s campaign looks more like a bid for online engagement than a serious threat to Ernst’s career. But in a December 9 telephone interview, he explained why he’s confident he can build a strong GOP primary campaign.

MAGA activists are increasingly unhappy with U.S. Senator Joni Ernst and looking for someone to run against her in Iowa’s 2026 Senate primary.

If conservatives aren’t able to stop Ernst from winning the nomination, they may have a place to park their protest votes in the general election. Libertarian Thomas Laehn again confirmed to Bleeding Heartland he’s seriously considering a Senate bid.

Eleventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Many factors helped Iowa Republicans expand their already large state legislative majorities in 2024. Two of the most important were Donald Trump’s dominance in the presidential race, and the continued decline in ticket-splitting.

By my calculations, Trump carried 71 of the 100 Iowa House districts, up from 63 state House districts the last time he was on the ballot in 2020. In all four Democratic-held House districts that flipped this year, voters preferred Trump. That helped Republican Ryan Weldon defeat State Representative Molly Buck in House district 41 (Ankeny), David Blom defeat Sue Cahill in House district 52 (Marshalltown), Jennifer Smith defeat Chuck Isenhart in House district 72 (Dubuque), and Christian Hermanson win the open House district 59 (Mason City).

Trump also carried 20 of the 25 state Senate districts that were on the ballot, including both where Democratic incumbents lost: Mike Pike defeated Nate Boulton in Senate district 20 (eastern Polk County), and Dave Sires defeated Eric Giddens in Senate district 38 (mostly located in Black Hawk County). The only Iowa GOP lawmaker to lose in 2024, State Senator Brad Zaun, faced Matt Blake in a district where voters preferred Kamala Harris for president.

Ticket-splitting used to be more common in Iowa. Republicans maintained control of the state House in 2012, even as Barack Obama carried 61 of the 100 districts that year. (No wonder few observers expected Iowa’s hard shift to the right, beginning in 2016.)

But in 2020 and again this year, only seven Iowa legislators managed to win in districts where voters preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

I calculated the 2024 numbers using certified precinct-level vote totals from the Iowa Secretary of State’s election results website. Figures on the 2020 presidential vote in each district come from the Iowa House and Iowa Senate maps Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

This post covers the six Iowa House members and one state senator in descending order, by how much they outperformed the top of their own party’s ticket.

Tenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Across the country, voters elected a record number of women to serve in state legislatures in 2024. About a third of all U.S. state lawmakers will be women next year, and in seven state legislative chambers, women will comprise 50 percent or more of members.

In contrast, the 2024 elections moved the Iowa legislature further away from gender parity. The decline was steeper in the state House, where Iowans elected fewer women than at any point since 2014. A retirement produced a smaller drop in female representation in the upper chamber.

Ninth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

With the 2024 election results finalized following the December 2 meeting of the State Board of Canvass, we know the basics about Iowa’s general election turnout.

More information about voter participation by age group, gender, and party affiliation will be available when the Iowa Secretary of State’s office publishes the statewide statistical report in January 2025.

A few takeaways for now:

Eighth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Iowans could reasonably view the 2016 general election as an anomaly. Diverging sharply from the national mood, this state voted for Donald Trump by more than a 9-point margin, even as Hillary Clinton won the nationwide popular vote by a little more than 2 points. But maybe that was a one-off; Iowa had been a swing state for the previous six presidential elections.

When Joe Biden failed to flip a single Iowa county in 2020—even heavily Catholic counties where he should have done substantially better than Clinton—I concluded that Iowa was no longer a swing state. That post got some pushback from Democrats who thought I was reading too much into the results.

Trump’s third win in Iowa, by his largest margin yet, underscores how far this state has moved from the center of the national electorate. As Democrats search for a way back to winning more statewide and down-ballot races, they need to recognize that reality.

Governor Kim Reynolds has appointed former State Representative Dustin Hite as a District Court judge. The governor’s office announced the appointment on November 29, one day before the end of the 30-day window for Reynolds to name either Hite or the other nominee for the position, Keokuk County attorney Amber Thompson.

Hite served two terms in the state legislature, and as chair of the House Education Committee helped enact some of Reynolds’ agenda. He fast-tracked bills in 2021 that required schools to provide fully in-person instruction as an option, and prohibited school districts and local governments from imposing mask mandates.

However, Hite earned the governor’s wrath by not bringing school voucher bills up for a vote in the Education Committee during the 2021 or 2022 legislative sessions. In addition, he opted not to assign school “bathroom bills” to a subcommittee, and opposed various “tort reform” proposals to limit damages Iowans could recover in medical malpractice cases or lawsuits involving trucking companies. 

Hite was among four House Republicans who opposed school voucher bills and subsequently lost their 2022 primaries after Reynolds endorsed GOP rivals. The governor recorded a robocall urging voters to back Helena Hayes in Hite’s district. Hayes was just re-elected to a second term representing House district 88.

Seventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Republicans will hold 35 of the 50 Iowa Senate seats when the legislature reconvenes in 2025, a net gain of one from the 34-16 GOP majority of the past two years. The results were finalized on November 22 and November 25 following recounts in two close races.

According to the legislature’s official website, the fifteen-member Democratic caucus will be the smallest contingent for the party in the Iowa Senate since the early 1960s. Maintaining a two-thirds majority means Republicans will be able to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any Democratic support.

Redistricting played a role in all three districts where party control changed. The demise of ticket-splitting was also apparent, as three incumbents lost in areas where their constituents preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

U.S. Senator Joni Ernst will be a leading Congressional partner of President-elect Donald Trump’s effort to drastically cut federal spending. On November 22 her office “announced the founding of the Senate DOGE Caucus, which will work hand in hand with the Trump administration’s recently formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to identify and eliminate government waste.”

That “department” is actually a non-governmental advisory body, co-led by Trump’s billionaire buddy Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Staying outside the government allows DOGE to operate without Congressional authorization, and avoid federal rules on transparency and conflicts of interest.

In recent days, Ernst shared her spending cut proposals with Ramaswamy and traveled to Florida to meet with Trump, Musk, and others in the incoming administration.

Going all in on DOGE is a risky strategy.

State Senator Janice Weiner will be the new leader of Iowa Senate Democrats, replacing State Senator Pam Jochum, who did not seek re-election this year.

Weiner “grew up in a politically aware family in Coralville” and was a career Foreign Services officer with the U.S. State Department before moving back to Iowa in 2015. She represents Iowa Senate district 45, the chamber’s bluest district, covering Iowa City and University Heights in Johnson County. She first ran for the legislature in 2018, finishing second to Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary for a Senate district covering Coralville. She won a seat on the Iowa City council in 2019 and ran for the legislature again in 2022, when long-serving State Senator Joe Bolkcom retired.

Weiner is known for the well-researched comments she has often delivered during Iowa Senate committee meetings or floor debate.

Continuing his pattern of selecting unqualified loyalists for prestigious jobs, President-elect Donald Trump announced on November 20 that he will name former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker as U.S. ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In a written statement, Trump described Whitaker as “a strong warrior and loyal Patriot, who will ensure the United States’ interests are advanced and defended. Matt will strengthen relationships with our NATO Allies, and stand firm in the face of threats to Peace and Stability – He will put AMERICA FIRST.”

Whitaker has no foreign policy or diplomatic background. He served as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Iowa during George W. Bush’s presidency, and held several roles in the Justice Department during the Trump administration. For several months after the 2018 general election, Whitaker served (unconstitutionally) as acting U.S. attorney general. The New York Times reported in 2020 that during that period, Whitaker blocked a probe of “a state-owned Turkish bank suspected of violating U.S. sanctions law by funneling billions of dollars of gold and cash to Iran.”

Ann Selzer is stepping back from polling elections after conducting the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register for the last 27 years, she announced on November 17.

Top Iowa Republicans reacted by accusing Selzer of “skewing” her numbers or publishing “fake news polling”—all because her final Iowa Poll was way off the mark.

The attacks on Selzer—not from MAGA randos, but from the heart of the GOP establishment—reflect a broader Republican strategy to discredit mainstream media outlets like the Des Moines Register. They also validate unhinged behavior like President-elect Donald Trump’s call for Selzer to be criminally investigated.

Sixth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

The 2024 elections could hardly have gone worse for Iowa Democrats. Donald Trump carried the state by more than 13 points—a larger margin than Ronald Reagan managed here in either of his campaigns, and the largest winning margin for any presidential candidate in Iowa since Richard Nixon in 1972. The GOP swept the Congressional races for the second straight cycle and expanded their lopsided majorities in the legislature.

Support for Democrats has eroded in Iowa communities of all sizes—from large metro areas like Scott County (which voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1984) to rural counties that were always red, but now routinely deliver more than 70 percent of the vote to GOP candidates.

This post highlights the growing problem for Democrats in Iowa’s mid-sized cities. I focus on eleven counties where Democratic candidates performed well in the recent past, but now trail Republicans in state and federal races.

Changing political trends in mid-sized cities explain why Democrats will have smaller contingents in the Iowa House and Senate than at any time since 1970. Voters in six of these counties also saved U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks from a strong challenge by Democrat Christina Bohannan in the first Congressional district.

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has not officially been re-elected in Iowa’s first Congressional district, where Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan is seeking a recount in all 20 counties. But a message to fellow House Republicans indicates the IA-01 incumbent is already worried about the “tough road” facing members from swing districts during the 2026 election cycle.

Miller-Meeks failed in her bid to become House Conference secretary, the sixth-ranking GOP leadership position. It’s not clear how many Republicans supported her on November 13, when she finished third of three candidates on the first ballot. Caucus members then elected Representative Erin Houchin of Indiana over Mark Alford of Missouri. Both represent safe GOP districts.

A “Dear colleague” letter Miller-Meeks circulated on November 12—enclosed in full below—warned Republicans will struggle to expand their majority without including members from “battleground districts” in the party’s leadership.

For the first time in six years, Iowa’s junior Senator Joni Ernst will not have a position on the leadership team of U.S. Senate Republicans.

On November 13, members of the GOP caucus chose Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas over Ernst for Senate Republican Conference chair, the third-ranking leadership position. According to Andrew Desiderio of Punchbowl News, the vote was 35 to 18.

ERNST HAD JOINED LEADERSHIP IN HER FIRST TERM

First elected in 2014, Ernst joined GOP leadership shortly after the 2018 elections, when she competed against Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska for the fifth-ranking leadership position. She moved up to the fourth-ranking role after the 2022 elections.

Cotton was considered the favorite for conference chair going into the November 13 leadership vote, in part because he has a better relationship with President-elect Donald Trump. Cotton was on Trump’s short list for vice president earlier this year and was one of just seven people to get a speaking slot at all of the last three Republican National Conventions. Ernst spoke during prime time at the RNC in 2016 and 2020 but was snubbed this year—possibly because even though she did not endorse a presidential candidate before the Iowa caucuses, she was widely perceived to favor Nikki Haley. Ernst didn’t endorse Trump until March 6—the same day Haley ended her presidential campaign.

Republican lawmakers re-elected their party’s top leaders in the Iowa House and Senate on November 12 after increasing their already large majorities in both chambers.

With recounts likely in a few races, Republicans are on track to hold a 67 to 33 majority in the Iowa House (a net gain of three seats) and a 35 to 15 majority in the Senate (a net gain of one seat). Those are the largest contingents for the majority party in either chamber for more than 50 years.

Fourth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

As ticket-splitting has declined in recent election cycles, few Iowa candidates have managed to win where the other party has a big advantage at the top of the ticket. So it was in Iowa’s 2024 Congressional races: former President Donald Trump outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in all four U.S. House districts, which helped GOP incumbents hold off their Democratic opponents.

But one challenger massively outperformed Harris, and Trump barely pulled one underachieving incumbent over the line.

Election analyst Drew Savicki was first to publish the 2024 presidential vote and swing in Iowa’s U.S. House districts. I later confirmed his calculations, using unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State.

Second in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

The successful Republican effort to knock Libertarians off the ballot in three U.S. House districts may have influenced the outcome in at least one of them.

All three affected Libertarian candidates—Nicholas Gluba in the first Congressional district, Marco Battaglia in the third, and Charles Aldrich in the fourth—indicated that they would continue to run as write-in candidates. Unofficial results show write-in votes for Iowa’s four U.S. House races this year totaled 3,616—about 0.23 percent of the 1,602,409 ballots cast for a Congressional candidate.

When Libertarian candidates have been on the ballot for recent Iowa Congressional elections, they have typically received 2-3 percent of the vote.

AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE FIRST DISTRICT

In IA-01, unofficial results show Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by 796 votes (49.98 percent to 49.79 percent). Bohannan has not conceded, and the race has not been called. But it’s unlikely that enough provisional ballots remain to be counted for her to overtake Miller-Meeks. Iowa no longer counts absentee ballots that arrive after election day.

First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Two years ago, Iowa appeared to be on a different trajectory than much of the country. As Democrats won many of the midterm election races, including in our Midwestern neighboring states, Iowa experienced yet another “red wave.” Six of the last eight general elections in Iowa have been GOP landslides.

On November 5, Donald Trump improved on his 2020 performance almost across the board: in blue states like New York and New Jersey, swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and red states like Texas and Iowa. He gained in rural counties, suburban counties, and urban centers, in states where both presidential candidates campaigned intensely, and in states where there was no “ground game” or barrage of political advertising. He gained among almost every demographic group except for college-educated women. He may become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and only the second GOP nominee to win the popular vote since 1988.

The Trump resurgence isn’t unique to Iowa, or even the U.S.—grievance politics has been winning elections all over the world lately.

But that’s no comfort to Democrats here, who probably won’t win back any Congressional districts and suffered more losses among their already small contingents in the Iowa House and Senate.

This post has been updated with the unofficial results from each race. Original post follows.

Democrats go into the November 5 election with the smallest Iowa House contingent they’ve had in five decades. But even though control of the chamber is not in question, this year’s state House races matter.

Despite having a 64 to 36 advantage for the past two years, Republicans struggled to find 51 votes for some of their controversial legislation, such as Governor Kim Reynolds’ plan to overhaul the Area Education Agencies. So chipping away at the GOP majority could help limit further damage to public education or civil rights.

Conversely, a net loss of Democratic-held seats would allow the majority to govern with even fewer constraints.

This post highlights nine Iowa House seats most at risk of flipping, plus seven districts that could be competitive, or where the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. I will update later with unofficial results from all of these races.

This post has been updated with unofficial results from the November 5 election, as well as the final pre-election campaign finance disclosures and absentee ballot totals as of November 2. Original post follows.

Republicans currently hold 34 Iowa Senate seats—the largest GOP contingent in that chamber since 1973. Democrats are not realistically contending to regain the Senate majority in November. So why pay any attention to these legislative races?

Although the most competitive state Senate races won’t determine control of the chamber, they could reveal a lot about each party’s strengths with certain kinds of voters. A good night for Republicans would indicate that the Trump-era realignment has moved further into Iowa’s former blue regions. A good night for Democrats could pull the GOP below the two-thirds threshold, which has allowed Senate Republicans to confirm all of Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any support from the minority party.

This post highlights four state Senate districts at most risk of flipping, and another seven districts where even without a big investment by Democrats or Republicans, the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. A forthcoming article will cover state House races to watch in 2024.

Kevin Virgil made waves in August when he urged supporters of his GOP primary campaign to vote for Democrat Ryan Melton in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. But when the conservative Republican cast his own general election ballot, he wrote in his own name for Congress.

Virgil had called on voters to shock the Republican establishment by supporting Donald Trump for president and Melton in the IA-04 race. He explained in August that while he disagreed with the Democrat on many issues, “the only way that our so-called leadership is going to get the message is if ‘we the people’ demonstrate that we are no longer willing to tolerate bad candidates.” He stood by that position even as Iowa GOP leaders circled the wagons around U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, the two-term incumbent who defeated Virgil in the primary.

But on October 24, Virgil announced in Facebook and X/Twitter posts, “I will be voting later today and will write my own name in on the congressional ballot.” He confirmed to Bleeding Heartland that he did so at the O’Brien County elections office.

Voters will decide in November whether to let Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May serve in that role for another eight years.

Justice May is heavily favored to keep his job. There is no organized statewide campaign against him, comparable to the well-funded efforts to oust Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010 and 2012. His two colleagues who were up for retention in 2022 each received about 67 percent “yes” votes.

However, many reproductive rights advocates have circulated emails or social media posts calling on Iowans to vote against the newest justice, because in June he joined the 4-3 majority opinion that allowed the state to enforce a near-total abortion ban. Abortion is a more salient issue in this year’s election than it was two years ago.

It can be difficult for voters to find detailed information about the judges on the ballot. This post provides context on how Justice May has approached Iowa Supreme Court cases in several areas of the law. Bleeding Heartland previously covered the highest- and lowest-rated Iowa Court of Appeals and District Court judges who are up for retention this year.

If Justice May receives more “no” than “yes” votes—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—his tenure on the court will end in December. The State Judicial Nominating Commission would interview candidates for the vacancy and send three finalists to Governor Kim Reynolds for her consideration. Notably, nine of the seventeen commission members are themselves Reynolds appointees, so conservatives would likely end up on the short list of Supreme Court nominees.

Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I will post Iowa’s latest absentee ballot numbers, statewide and for each Congressional district, every weekday, based on figures released by the Iowa Secretary of State’s office. That office also publishes daily absentee ballot totals by county, state House district, and state Senate district.

You can compare this year’s numbers to daily charts from the last six election cycles by clicking through to Bleeding Heartland’s archive of absentee ballot totals from 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2012. But use caution when comparing, because Iowa’s early voting window lasted for 40 days through 2016, and was 29 days for the 2018 and 2020 elections. Only the most recent midterm also used the 20-day window currently in effect.

Also, keep in mind that this year’s early voting numbers will certainly be much lower than in 2020, when a majority of Iowans who participated cast a ballot before election day. Voting by mail skyrocketed during the last presidential election cycle, because the COVID-19 pandemic discouraged many from voting in person, and the Secretary of State’s office sent absentee ballot request forms to all registered Iowa voters. Republican legislators and Governor Kim Reynolds subsequently prohibited county auditors and the secretary of state from sending absentee ballot request forms to any voter who had not requested one.

The Secretary of State’s office now breaks down ballots received by voting method: mail, in person at a county office, in person at a satellite location, through a drop box, at a health care facility, or by email or fax (options for military or overseas voters). I’m keeping it simple with one table each day for ballots voters in each Congressional district have requested, and one table for ballots county auditors have received. After the election, I will write about how many Iowans used the various early voting options, and the partisan split for each.

In recent years, Iowa Democrats have been far more likely than Republicans to cast early ballots. However, the Iowa GOP has invested in a big early voting push this year. So far, Republicans are not far behind in early ballots requested and received in the first, second, and third Congressional districts. The GOP leads in early voting in the fourth district, where the party has a massive voter registration advantage.

Remember, though: the tables below show how many Iowans of various partisan affiliations have voted early. That doesn’t mean they all voted a straight party ticket.

Iowans will decide this November whether to allow one Iowa Supreme Court justice, four Iowa Court of Appeals judges, and 64 Iowa District Court judges to remain on the bench. Since our state adopted the current judicial selection system in 1962, each judge must periodically go on the ballot—every eight years for Iowa Supreme Court justices, every six years for those serving on other courts.

Iowa voters have retained almost all judges over the past six decades. But any jurist who receives more “no” than “yes” votes in November—as happened with three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010—will be out of a job. Governor Kim Reynolds would fill any vacancies in early 2025, after receiving a list of finalists from the State Judicial Nominating Commission or its district-level counterpart.

While some people routinely approve or reject every judge up for retention as a matter of principle, voters who want to make informed choices often find it difficult to learn anything about the judges listed on the back of the ballot.

This post highlights the appeals and district court judges who received the highest and lowest ratings in the 2024 Judicial Performance Review, the main public source of information about Iowa’s judges. I will also explain why I plan to vote against retaining a member of the Iowa Court of Appeals and a district associate judge in Polk County.

A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland article will analyze how Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May has decided high-profile cases since Reynolds appointed him in July 2022.

As misinformation about the federal response to natural disasters hampers relief efforts in the southeast U.S., several Iowa Republicans have seized the opportunity to spread lies about the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Echoing “pants on fire” claims from former President Donald Trump, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Ashley Hinson (IA-02) have repeatedly asserted that FEMA lacks the resources needed to help those harmed by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, because it has spent too much supporting undocumented immigrants. Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) and U.S. Senator Joni Ernst have likewise claimed Americans are being shortchanged due to FEMA’s allegedly excessive spending on migrants.

Those lies are part of a national effort by Trump supporters and the leading pro-Republican cable news network to assist Trump’s campaign. For Iowa Republicans as well, the false talking points direct voters’ attention toward immigration and border security, topics perceived to boost GOP candidates up and down the ballot.

Nunn, Miller-Meeks, and Hinson all invested in election-year messaging about immigration long before the hurricanes made landfall.

State Auditor Rob Sand intends to decide which office he’s running for in 2026 well before the end of next year, he confirmed during a September 30 appearance on Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck Zoom podcast. Sand talked mostly about his work as auditor during the interview. When Gammack opened the floor to questions, I asked about his future plans.

The only remaining Democratic statewide official in Iowa, Sand is widely perceived as a potential candidate for governor in 2026. If he runs, he could clear the Democratic field.

I raised the question of timing because Sand also considered running for higher office in 2021. He ruled out a U.S. Senate bid in May of that year but did not announce he would seek a second term as auditor until early December. Does he plan to leave other prospective candidates for governor hanging for most of 2025, or let Iowans know sooner, perhaps in the summer or early fall?

“So, I’m a human being,” Sand began. He hadn’t gone through that “complicated” and “difficult” process before the last election cycle. “And let me tell you, there’s no one who wishes I would have decided faster more than me. Maybe my wife,” he laughed.

“But it’s hard to figure it out,” Sand went on. There are personal factors to consider as well as “really important decisions” for the state and the public. Weighing his options in 2021 “was really difficult. I have now been through this once before. I think it will be easier, and I don’t think it will take as long this time.”

We often hear that Iowans like to re-elect their incumbents. But when it comes to members of the U.S. House, Iowa’s office-holders have less job security than many of their peers.

Across the country, voters have re-elected more than 90 percent of U.S. House incumbents in most elections over the past five decades. Here in Iowa, where our four districts are not gerrymandered, challengers defeated two sitting members of Congress in 2018, two in 2020 (one in the primary, one in the general election), and one in 2022.

Incumbents still enjoy inherent advantages in a Congressional campaign: higher name recognition, larger contributions from political action committees, more opportunities to generate news coverage, and an official budget that can fund outreach to constituents. But not all House members use the available tools the same way.

This post, the first in a series, will explore how Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has used her office to boost her re-election chances in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

Notably, Miller-Meeks has spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on messages to constituents, with much of the spending going through her top campaign vendor. She has also built up goodwill by being one of the chamber’s most frequent floor speakers, and has used the earmark process to help fund projects in her district.

Members of Congress averted a federal government shutdown this week, approving a continuing resolution to keep funds flowing after the current fiscal year ends. Large bipartisan majorities in both chambers (341 to 82 in the House, and 78 to 18 in the Senate) voted on September 25 to fund the federal government at current levels through December 20. The bill also contains an extra $231 million in funds for the U.S. Secret Service to step up protection of presidential candidates.

All but one member of Iowa’s Congressional delegation supported the spending measure. Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-04) has not publicly explained why he was among the 82 House Republicans who voted against the last opportunity to prevent a shutdown.

While running for state treasurer, Republican State Senator Roby Smith touted his attendance record, noting in digital and television advertising that he “never missed a vote” during his twelve years in the legislature.

But since being sworn in as state treasurer in January 2023, it’s not clear whether Smith has regularly worked at the state capitol.

Staff in the State Treasurer’s office and the Iowa Department of Administrative Services refused Bleeding Heartland’s requests for records that would show how often Smith comes to work in Des Moines. After months of delay, both entities declined to provide keycard data that would indicate when the treasurer entered his capitol office. Smith’s chief of staff, Molly Widen, also said there are no calendar entries showing which days her boss has worked in the main office.

Iowa’s open records law stipulates that “free and open examination of public records is generally in the public interest even though such examination may cause inconvenience or embarrassment to public officials.”

While hundreds of prominent Republicans around the country have endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, no well-known GOP activists in Iowa had joined their ranks—until today.

Dawn Roberts, who was one of three co-chairs for Nikki Haley’s Iowa caucus campaign, announced her support for Harris in a letter first published September 20 in Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck column on Substack, and a few hours later by the Des Moines Register.

A lifelong Republican, Roberts was Polk County co-chair for then Governor Robert Ray’s campaigns and served as state co-chair for Gerald Ford’s 1976 presidential campaign. She became the first woman to lead the Polk County Republicans and was the GOP nominee for Iowa secretary of state in 1986.

Roberts wrote in her endorsement letter that she was impressed by how Harris “showed a willingness to listen to a wider range of views to solve problems.” The vice president allowed people with different political perspectives, including some Republicans, to speak at the Democratic National Convention.

Every Iowa Democratic candidate had reason to celebrate the latest Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent). But arguably none had more grounds for optimism than Lanon Baccam, the Democratic nominee in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

According to calculations by the Daily Kos Elections team (now publishing as The Downballot), Trump outpolled Joe Biden across the IA-03 counties by 49.3 percent to 48.9 percent in 2020, while winning the state by an 8-point margin. So if Harris trails by only 4 points statewide now, she likely leads Trump in the third district.

Assuming the Selzer poll is off by the margin of error (plus or minus 3.8 percentage points), and Trump has an 8-point lead statewide, the major-party presidential nominees may be roughly tied in the IA-03 counties.

In other words, Baccam won’t have to overcome strong headwinds at the top of the ticket in order to beat first-term Republican Representative Zach Nunn, who carried this district by 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent in 2022.

I’ve been thinking about what else needs to happen for the challenger to win in November.

The last few weeks could hardly have gone worse for the Libertarian Party of Iowa. Republican activists successfully forced the party’s three U.S. House candidates off the ballot, leaving Nicholas Gluba, Marco Battaglia, and Charles Aldrich to run write-in campaigns in the first, third, and fourth Congressional districts.

Meanwhile, a crowded field of presidential candidates imperils Libertarian prospects to retain major-party status in Iowa for the next election cycle.

National Democratic groups are investing significant funds in Iowa’s first Congressional district race, suggesting they believe Christina Bohannan has a solid chance to defeat two-term Republican incumbent Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

The House Majority PAC, a super-PAC connected to House Democratic leadership, has reserved another $2.3 million in television advertising time for the IA-01 race, Ally Mutnick reported for Politico on September 9. Those funds will be divided among the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Quad Cities markets, which collectively reach seventeen of the district’s 20 counties.* Mutnick noted the super-PAC “reserved just $350,000 in that district in July.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which also spends heavily to influence U.S. House races, has already reserved $1,551,000 in tv air time in Des Moines, $534,000 in Cedar Rapids, and $438,000 in Davenport. Much of the DCCC’s Des Moines market buy will be directed toward the third Congressional district, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging first-term Republican incumbent Zach Nunn.

The planned spending is a huge contrast to the 2022 cycle, when Democratic-aligned groups spent less than $100,000 on the IA-01 race, while GOP-aligned groups spent more than $2.7 million on messaging that supported Miller-Meeks or opposed Bohannan. Ad reservations on this scale indicate that internal Democratic polling shows Miller-Meeks is vulnerable.